IL-14: R+05
LA-06: R+07
MS-01: R+10
What’s next? What R+12 district is about to be flipped?
Month: May 2008
MS-01: Draft the NRCC’s Press Release
I’d like you to imagine, for a moment, that you are the NRCC’s junior press secretary. You’ve just been tasked with the impossible: Spin tonight’s disastrous election loss in the deep red, R+10 first congressional district in Mississippi. Well, it would be impossible for normal people, but we’re talking about Republicans. No spin is too absurd! Anything will do! Those saps in the “emm-ess-emm” will dutifully transcribe whatever you write, anyhow. (Remember how they bought your line about how LA-06 was a bad portent for… Democrats? Delicious!) The key thing is, whatever explanation you decide on, it absolutely, positively, cannot be the fault of any Republican anywhere.
With that in mind, start writing!
UPDATE: The verdict is in: Tom Cole should have hired all the commenters on this thread! His staff has clearly forgotten how to write a Republican press release.
Tom Cole Deathwatch Thread, No. 6
MS-01: Results Thread #2
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
Travis Childers  | (D) | 57,276 | 54% |
| Greg Davis | (R) | 49,314 | 46% |
RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | Clarion-Ledger
County-by-County Baselines (4/22 and 4/1 results)
10:34PM: A big thank you to everyone who commented, donated, made phone calls, volunteered or blogged about this race. Travis Childers and the Mississippi Democrats just took what was supposed to be a GOP cakewalk and delivered a deathblow. Savor this win — because it’s a huge one.
10:17PM: Trent just left for the TRAVIS CHILDERS VICTORY PARTY!!!
10:15PM: Folks, sorry for this site crashing tonight. We’ve been utterly slammed with traffic at a level that we haven’t seen since election night ’06.
10:14PM: CHILDERS WINS!!!
10:13PM: Folks, I think we just won this race.
10:06PM: Time for a new thread.
Nebraska Results Open Thread
Polls have just closed in Nebraska, where the marquee race is the NE-Sen Democratic primary between Scott Kleeb and Tony Raimondo. Also of interest is the NE-02 matchup between Richard Carter and 2006 nominee Jim Esch.
Results: NE SOS | Omaha World-Herald
MS-01: Results Thread #1
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Childers | (D) | 39,116 | 50% |
| Greg Davis | (R) | 38,418 | 50% |
RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | Clarion-Ledger
County-by-County Baselines (4/22 and 4/1 results)
9:58PM: DeSoto is almost all in (36/38), narrowing the race. We still have some very friendly precincts left (Clay, Prentiss) and some not-so-friendly ones (Tate). Looking optimistic, though.
9:56PM: Grenada is all in, going 49-51 to Davis. Last time, Davis won it 54-40.
9:49PM: Lee is all in, and Childers wins it 58-42. It was 58-37 last time.
9:46PM: Now it’s a 2-point race. A few more DeSoto precincts came in, closing the gap a bit.
9:42PM: Trent tells me that the mood is good at the Childers HQ. Childers just flipped Lafayette County by 53-47. It went for Davis by 44-51 last time.
9:35PM: Union came in, going from 39% on 4/22 to 44% tonight for Davis, but Childers stayed at 56%.
9:33PM: Big win in Panola for Cold Chillin’ Travis (57-43), which Davis won by 1 vote last time.
9:28PM: It’s not reflected above or on the AP’s tally, but Childers is at 72% in Clay County with 10 of 14 precincts in. That would be an improvement over last time by 6 or 7 points.
9:20PM: Now they’re running even in Lowndes with 18 of 22 in.
9:17PM: Webster is all in, and Childers ran ahead by 6 points. He’s also at 28% in DeSoto with 12 of 38 in. With the Lowndes performance, this is good news.
9:15PM: New update — Lowndes is now reflected in the total above.
9:11PM: It’s not reflected in the above totals or in the AP’s results, but the Dispatch says that Childers is winning Lowndes by 59-41 with 2/3rds in. Childers lost this county last time.
9:04PM: 7 of 38 precincts reporting in DeSoto. Childers is at 26% there — a slight bump from the 17% he got there last time.
9:01PM: Folks, just a reminder — the Clarion-Ledger is your best bet for the fastest results by county.
8:56PM: Childers is up to 59% in Lee — much better.
8:46PM: More numbers in, from Lee and Chickasaw. Childers is running slightly behind his 4/22 total, but it’s too early to tell just yet with only partial results from these counties.
8:41PM: Winston is in, breaking 6-4 for Childers. Childers won 4-0 here on 4/22.
8:00PM Eastern: Polls are now closed. It will probably take a few minutes before the first results trickle in, though, judging from past experience here. Stay tuned.
Polls close here at 8pm Eastern, so we still have time for some pre-game chatter before we begin liveblogging the reults.
Will Bardwell has a few turnout updates here. Our friends at Cotton Mouth and the Thorn Papers will be providing local color, as well.
It looks like turnout is up everywhere, but this could be an ominous sign for Childers: DeSoto county is printing extra ballots, which means that they’ll have more than 17,000 votes cast in this election.
MI Filing: Complete Slate again
All 15 House incumbents filed for re-election as did U.S. Senator Carl Levin. Overall, Democrats filed for all 15 House districts; Republicans filed for 14 leaving John Conyers (MI-14) unopposed. (In 2006, Democrats filed for 15 seats; Republicans for 13) Mark Schauer in MI-7 drew a primary opponent in 2006 nominee Sharon Renier. Renier gave the best challenge to any Michigan incumbent finishing behind by less than 10,000 votes despite an underfunded campaign. Edward Kriewall and Joseph Larkin will vie for the nomination in MI-11. John Conyers has a primary opponent in Horace Sheffield. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mother of embattled Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick drew two primary opponents: Martha Scott and Mary Waters. In related news (pun intended), the Detroit City Council voted 5-4 to request that Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm remove Kwame Kilpatrick from his job as Mayor.
Only one Republican primary will be required: in MI-1 to oppose Democratic incumbent Bart Stupak. Tom Casperson, Linda Goldthorpe, and Don Hooper will vie for the slot. Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. will oppose Carl Levin for the U,S, Senate seat.
The 110 member State House is up for election. Democrats, who had a full legislative slate in 2006 did it again. Republicans left 14 of the 110 seats unopposed.
Democratic candidates:
Senate: Carl Levin (Incumbent)
MI-1: Bart Stupak (Incumbent)
MI-2: Fred Johnson
MI-3: Henry Sanchez
MI-4: Andrew Concannon
MI-5: Dale Kildee (Incumbent)
MI-6: Don Cooney
MI-7: Sharon Renier
Mark Schauer
MI-8: Robert Alexander
MI-9: Gary Peters
MI-10: Robert Denison
MI-11: Edward Kriewall
Joseph Larkin
MI-12: Sander Levin (Incumbent)
MI-13: Carolyn Kilpatrick Cheeks (Incumbent)
Martha Scott
Mary Waters
MI-14: John Conyers (Incumbent)
Horace Sheffield
MI-15: John Dingell (Incumbent)
Dingell is the senior member of the House in terms of seniority (1955 IIRC). Conyers has represented his district since being elected in 1962.
Republicans’ New Motto for 2008
According to House Minority Leader John Boehner, the Republicans will begin by Wednesday unveiling a new campaign slogan for the 2008 election, running on the theme “Change You Deserve”.
Are you kidding me? Did Americans deserve 5000 soldiers dead in Iraq? Did they deserve trillions of dollars in debt? Did they deserve a recession, high gas prices, a declining environment, and 8 years of rancid corruption?
And to top that off, Boehner said this:
With both Democratic contenders for the presidency stressing messages of change, Boehner, R-Ohio, has challenged his members to help get the public to view the GOP as a vehicle for new ideas.
But Boehner spokesman Michael Steel admitted it is a work in progress. “It’s a goal that we can be viewed as agents of change,” he said.
What have these guys been smoking?
The RNC’s New Slogan: ROFL
This article I came across today about a new Republican strategy for the 2008 election just had me ROFL.
“Change You Deserve?” So Americans deserved to lose nearly 5000 soldiers in Iraq, have skyrocketing gas prices, a recession, and corruption from government?
What really has be guffawing is Republican spokesperson Michael Steel summing up his party’s ridculous strategy:
“It’s a goal that we can be viewed as agents of change,” he said.
Are these guys for real?
MS-01: Predictions Open Thread
Polls close in Mississippi tonight at 8pm Eastern. We’ll be liveblogging the returns as they come in, but until then, feel free to post your predictions in the comments. You may find the county baselines that we posted earlier to be helpful.
There’s another election tonight, as well — the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate nomination in Nebraska, where Scott Kleeb and Tony Raimondo will face off. Polls close at 9pm Eastern in Nebraska. Feel free to post your predictions for that race in the comments, too.
There’s still time to help GOTV for Childers with the DCCC’s virtual phonebanking center.