(Impressive work. From the diaries with a few minor edits. – promoted by James L.)
By now you know Rep. Vito Fossella did some very bad things. There are a lot of news articles and blog posts covering his immoral behavior. I don’t need to get into that, instead I am here to provide a better understanding of just who these potential Democratic candidates are that are suddenly being talked about. To start with, only one candidate has declared for this race, Steve Harrison. Additionally, City Councilman Domenic Recchia is raising money for this race but has yet to declare his candidacy or put together a campaign staff of any kind for almost eight months. The rest of this diary is going to focus on three Democratic office holders from Staten Island; State Senator Diane Savino, Assemblyman Mike Cusick and City Councilman Mike McMahon.
Assembly Member Mike Cuisck
Mike Cusick is a State Assembly member representing the 63rd Assembly District covering mid island of Staten Island. His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);
From his Assembly bio;
Prior to his election, Cusick served as Director of Constituent Services for U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer.
snip
He was instrumental in researching and developing statewide legislation, including the law to close the Fresh Kills Landfill.
Assemblymember Cusick was first elected to the Assembly in 2002 and has won re-election in 2004 and 2006. He is up for re-election this November.
2006
Cusick (D, I, C, WFP): 62% (13,086)
Grossman (R): 38% (5,775)
Congressional totals in the 63 AD
Harrison (D, WFP): 44% (8,547)
Vito (R, I, C): 56% (11,215)
Why he could be the nominee
Cusick represents the mid-island which separates the very Democratic North Shore from the very Republican South Shore. He has a large amount of bi-partisan appeal, needed to hold this seat. In 2006 he was endorsed by both the Independence and Conservative Parties who had endorsed Rep. Fossella in the congressional race. While Rep. Fossella won this Assembly District in his 2006 Congressional run, Cusick managed to get even more voters than Fossella in his down ballot race.
Rep. Anthony Weiner has publicly stated his support for Cusick and his desire that he run for this seat. While Weiner’s seat is in Queens and not in this district he is considered a top tier mayoral candidate which may give his ‘endorsement’ additional weight and resources.
His previous boss was Sen. Schumer. Schumer could provide access to his donors, although he offered very little to Harrison after his endorsement in 2006.
The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest. As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.
Why he might not be the nominee
Cusick has been on everyone’s short list for at least the 2006 and 2008 congressional race yet has passed on both opportunities. He has what appears to be a seat in the Assembly for as long as he wants it and would have to give that up if he ran for Congress in a general election.
If he gives up his Assembly seat it will not be as easy for Democrats to hold as Savino’s senate seat or McMahon’s city council seat. That said the Democrats hold a 2:1 advantage in the Assembly so this would be a minor loss for the state party.
He would start a congressional campaign with no money.
Sen. Diane Savino
Diane Savino is a State Senator representing the 23rd Sentate District covering the north shore of Staten Island as well as portions of Brooklyn including Borough Park, Coney Island, Bensonhurst, and Sunset Park. Her senate district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);
From her State Senate bio;
An active member of her local labor union, the Social Service Employees Union, Local 371, DC 37 of AFSCME, she quickly rose through the ranks to become the Vice President for Political Action & Legislative Affairs, where she became one of the most respected labor leaders in New York State.
Sen. Savino was first elected to State Senate in 2004 and won re-election in 2006. She is up for re-election this November.
2004
Diane Savino (D, WFP): 63%
Al Curtis (R, I, C): 37%
2006
Diane Savino (D, I, WFP): 99%
no opponent
Why she could be the nominee
As noted above she has great ties to the labor community. In 2004 the Democratic nominee Frank Barbaro was able to raise $187,000 of his $425,000 from union contributions. She should be able to easily match Barbaro’s financial success.
Savino was an Executive Board member for Working Families Party. WFP has been instrumental in providing very strong ground operations in two high profile State Senate races, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine. I often noted before Fossella’s latest ethics problem that involvement by WFP would be critical in flipping this seat. She has the strongest connection of any of the candidates to WFP.
The DCCC has been apparently dropping her name as someone of interest. As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit her.
Why she might not be the nominee
A victory for Savino would put a state senate seat up for grabs in a year Democrats possibly are going to flip the Senate. She also is co-chair of the New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and in charge of recruitment. Certainly the New York State Party would not be supportive of her giving up this seat and she would give up all of her work towards reclaiming a majority.
Diane has up until this point publicly supported Domenic Recchia. Recchia would need to most likely drop out before Savino would enter.
She would start a congressional campaign with no money.
City Council Member Mike McMahon
Mike McMahon is a member of the New York City Council, representing the north shore of Staten Island including the neighborhoods of; Rosebank, Westerleigh, New Brighton, West Brighton, Mariners Harbor, Stapleton, St. George, Park Hill, Port Richmond, Clifton, Arlington, Grymes Hill and Dongan Hills. His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);
McMahon was first elected in 2001, has won re-election in 2005 and will be term limited out of office in 2009.
2005
Mike McMahon (D, WFP, C): 70%
Jody Hall (R): 30%
Why he could be the nominee
McMahon chairs the Sanitation Committee which is extremely influential in Staten Island with its history as a waste transfer and landfill end point at Great Kills. His leadership on the issue would be a strong campaigning point.
The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest. As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.
The somewhat corresponding 60th Assembly District was carried by Harrison with 57% and Barbaro with 54%. If McMahon could carry it with his 70% he could gain anywhere from 3,000-7,000 additional votes depending on turnout. That could amount to a 2-3% increase based on 2006 results.
Why he might not be the nominee
McMahon is a partner in the law firm of O’Leary, McMahon and Spero. In his current role as a member of city council he is able to continue practicing law and earning income from his law firm. He would have to give this up if he were elected to Congress. The base city council salary is $112,000 whereas the base congressional salary is around $175,000. This difference may be enough to allow him to give up the law firm and afford to raise a family in New York City.
His wife Judith Novellino McMahon is currently serving as a Civil Court judge and is running for the state Supreme Court in this fall. Mike McMahon has indicated he intends to actively campaign for his wife which may be difficult if he is involved in a Congressional race. The two also have two children. The prospects of his wife obtaining a higher judicial role and him splitting time between DC and Staten Island may not be enticing for their family.
McMahon has often been mentioned as a likely candidate for the Staten Island Borough Presidency race in 2009. This would allow him to stay home yet continue his political involvement in the district and is possibly more appealing than DC.
He would start a congressional campaign with no money.
Should the Democratic side of this race go to a primary I do not foresee any reason why more than one of the above would jump, if any. I have even outlined above why we may not see any of them enter the race at all. All of them have previously passed on the opportunity for various reasons, so it would not be unrealistic to not see any of them get in this time. If you want to place odds on them in terms of favorites, I believe they would come in the same order as in this post; Cusick, Savino then McMahon.
I have covered Vito Fossella and the NY-13 Congressional race for three years at the NY13Blog.
Polls close in Mississippi at 8pm Eastern. We’ll be tracking and liveblogging the returns as they come in, but in order to really know what the numbers mean, we’ll have to pull up the county-by-county results of the April 22nd special primary, filtering out the also-rans so we get a pure Childers vs. Davis head-to-head: