Month: May 2008

Civitas (5/14-17, registered voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 43

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±3.7)

First Rasmussen, then Public Policy Polling, then SurveyUSA, and now Civitas.  With four consecutive polls showing the North Carolina Senate race to be neck-and-neck, the Swing State Project is moving its rating of this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Update: I forgot to mention the Research 2000 poll from late April that showed Hagan within 7 points of Dole.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for US Congress:

A very Happy Memorial Day Weekend from State Senator Major John Boccieri and Governor Ted Strickland!!!

The word coming out of Columbus, Ohio, in the Tribune Chronicle for the passage of his vets bill “just in time for Memorial Day.” Ian Walton, Campaign Manager, John Boccieri for US Congress has confirmed:

Huge News! The Veteran’s Bill Sponsored by John has just been signed by the Governor.

According to the Tribune Chronicle:

Just in time for the Memorial Day weekend, the Ohio Senate approved a bill designed to streamline veterans programs and make sure reservists don’t lose their jobs when they are deployed overseas.The bill creates a Department of Veterans Services that consolidates existing programs under its director.

Last May, Gov. Ted Strickland formed a council to study what would be needed to create the new cabinet level post. At the time Strickland said his executive order:

…lays the foundation to ensure Ohio’s veterans and their families will always have a strong voice in state government.

State Senator Major John Boccieri, a member of the council that crafted the legislation said:

The group worked on it all summer to make sure we did this right for our veterans.

He was the sponsor of the provision to help protect reservists and National Guard members who come back to Ohio and find their old job is gone. Federal law already required employers to rehire the troops in their old jobs at the old pay rate.

Boccieri said 99 percent of employers do just that. But he said a growing number of soldiers are returning home from war to find their jobs are gone.The only recourse soldiers have now is through the federal courts, where it can take two to three years to resolve the dispute.

Often veterans walk away from the fight. What veteran can afford to fight for years for their job in federal court while needing to put bread on their family’s table?

The Major, who served four tours of duty as a C-130 Hercules Commander, said:

The bill is a first step in honoring veterans. SB 176 puts the job guarantee into state law, allows veterans to seek relief in state courts and it requires judges hear those cases first. The new law should resolve job disputes in a matter of months.

Rasmussen (5/20, likely voters, 4/30 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (51)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±4)

So far, so good.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

Ohio State Senator John Boccieri has served and served well. Now, John wants you to bring General Wes Clark to work side-by-side in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. WesPAC was among the first to endorse the Major and unlike the “non-Endorsements” garnering national spot-light this one is real and standing!

Today, the WesPAC and Democrats Work communities are launching a contest to determine which Congressional District I am going to visit this summer.

This won’t be an ordinary visit. I will travel to one Congressional District where a Democratic challenger is fighting to change the direction of our country to work side-by-side with area Democrats to make a positive impact through community service. We want you to tell us where we should put our values into action.

The presidential primaries are heading towards a not so climactic conclusion and so the time has come to focus some attention on the congressional races. I haven’t updated the  rankings since January and a lot has changed in the past 5 months, starting with the resolution of contested primaries in Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina and probably Minnesota. Both parties have gone through final recruitment pushes, with the GOP playing a tragicomedic farce in New Jersey and suffering through one more round of failures in South Dakota and Iowa.

Meanwhile, a number of seats that had remained relatively quiet up to now have been seeing more action in the past few months. In Colorado, Bob Schaffer had been holding unexpectedly strong for most of 2007 but he was hit by a scandal over his ties with Jack Abramoff. In Oregon, the DSCC decided it had to soften Gordon Smith early to have a chance in November and started airing an attack ad against the incumbent. In Minnesota, it was Democrats who took a hit when it was revealed that Al Franken had trouble with taxes. And in Alaska, Mark Begich officially jumped in the Senate race — though it had been many months that his candidacy had become clear.

But it is the lower ranked seats that created the most wave in the first half of 2008. It has become increasingly apparent that Democrats are successfully expanding the map, putting the dream of a filibuster-proof (however unlikely it still is) back on the table. As poll after poll show that seats like North Carolina, Texas and even Kansas — not to mention Mississippi and Alaska, which were barely on the table back in the fall but which are not first-tier races on their own right — are within Democrats’ reach, the Senate picture is becoming increasingly nightmarish for the GOP. The NRSC is not in quite as big a financial hole as their House counterpart, but the Republicans have to be prepared to have their resources stretched thin. The DSCC is sending staffers to organize in Oklahoma, a clear sign that they are determined to put as many states in play as possible. For now, they are succeeding beyond even their expectations.

Check the January rankings here.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 5-8 Senate seats, with a bigger gain more likely than a  smaller one.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 6 seats, for a 57-43 majority. This is the highest number of pick-ups I have predicted yet, though I think I am remaining on the safer side.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

If Democrat Mark Warner had not chosen to jump in this Senate race, he would surely have been near the top of both Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama’s vice-presidential list. That he chose to run in Virginia instead demonstrates his confidence that he will be elected in November against fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore. Polls consistently show a double-digit lead for Warner, and given how many other seats the NRSC must defend it is unlikely they will invest anything to defend their chances here.

Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

2. New Mexico (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

The Republican primary between Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce is getting increasingly aggressive, with two high-profile politicians facing the end of their political careers, in a primary no less. The Club for Growth is now getting involved on behalf of Steve Pearce. Meanwhile, Tom Udall is building his general election campaign and looking increasingly formidable in polls. He is also amassing a considerable financial advantage — he has three times as much cash-on-hand than his opponents combined — and is using the funds to already air his first ads re-introducing himself to all voters. New Mexico is as closely divided a state as there is in the country; but in a year that structurally favors Democrats, any Democratic nominee starts with a clear generic advantage — even more so when he is as popular as Udall.

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 3)

After a slight down-tick in polls at the end of 2007 — perhaps because of her husband’s heavily publicized comments about Obama’s past drug use — Jeanne Shaheen has reclaimed a convincing lead against Senator Sununu. How early the challenger jumped to a clear lead and how stable that lead has been since then confirms that this race is looking to be the 2006 Santorum-Casey election. This is a race in which the Democrats’ success in expanding the map could prove critical, as it is unlikely that the NRSC will have a dime to spend to help a badly trailing Sununu if states like North Carolina, Texas or Mississippi look to be in any way endangered.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4)



In the first seat to open up this cycle, Colorado’s Senate race was quiet for most of 2007 as both parties settled on their nominees relatively early. Expectations favored Democrat Mark Udall given past trends in the state, but Republican Bob Schaffer held on, as  poll after poll found Colorado to be a toss-up. But the past few months have been rough for Schaffer. First, the Denver Post revealed that Schaffer was associated with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and that a 1999 trip to the Marinas Island that was meant to examine labor conditions was arranged by Abramoff; this controversy gained attention and an independent group chose to air an ad in the Colorado Springs region to soften up Schaffer’s popularity.

Second, the Schaffer campaign committed a major gaffe mid-May when his campaign substituted a picture of Colorado’s Pikes Peak by Alaska’s Mount McKinley in an ad that was meant to emphasize Schaffer’s Colorado roots. While this is certainly a silly controversy, the reason Schaffer was running this ad in the first place was that there were questions about his attachment to Colorado and this only reinforces doubts people might be having about him. The DSCC jumped on the opportunity to air an ad also attacking Schaffer for his connections to Abramoff — confirming that this will haunt the Colorado Republican for many months to come.

The only poll taken since these ads started running showed Udall slightly expanding his lead but he is ahead only 6%, confirming that Schaffer is a much stronger candidate — and is holding on despite controversies — much more strongly than people envisioned a few months ago. This has been a surprising reality Democrats have been dealing with for a few months and while Udall would probably prevail if the election was held today the race is much too close for comfort.

5. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 8)

This race has been creeping up the rankings for months now. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich officially declared his candidacy at the end of April, in one of the DSCC’s best recruitment coups of this cycle. Democrats have had heartbreaks in Alaska over the past few years, but the state GOP is reaching rock bottom because of a corruption investigation that has engulfed most Republican figures — including Stevens and Rep. Young. Both of these incumbents are in grave danger of losing their seat. Stevens might be the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, but Begich is actually leading by 5 percent in the latest poll of the race. However, this remains Alaska and Stevens is as formidable a political force as it gets so this race will remain tight to the end.

6. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 5)

With the GOP’s failure to recruit a credible candidate in South Dakota and Iowa and with the farce played by New Jersey Republicans (see below), Louisiana is more than ever the Republicans’ only opportunity for a Senate pick-up come November. The size of the GOP’s Senate losses will likely depend on whether they can cushion their fall with a pick-up here. Louisiana has been trending Republican in recent cycles but Mary Landrieu has been preparing for a tight race for years now. Predictably, as this is the main — only? — seat in which they will go on the offense, Republicans will concentrate a lot of their fire power and resources in defeating Landrieu, as was confirmed by the fact that Republican candidate John Kennedy outraised the incumbent in the year’s first quarter.

But Democrats are certainly not panicking, as two polls in the past two months show Landrieu up double-digits and at or above 50% and found Landrieu with a strong favorability rating. Also, Don Cazayoux’s victory in LA-06’s special election bolsters the Democrats’ case that their party is much stronger than predicted in this state; but Republicans could also point to this special election to argue that the Louisiana environment is less pro-Democrat than the national one, as Cazayoux’s win against a flawed opponent was much tighter than Travis Childers’s victory against a better candidate and in a more Republican district (MS-01) ten days later. Republicans are determined enough to make this race competitive that the race will likely tighten considerably in the coming months.

7. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 6)

The first three months over the year looked very good for Democrat  Al Franken. His main opponent for the Democratic nomination, Mike Ciresi, abruptly withdrew from the race, essentially handing the DFL’s nod to Franken and allowing the comedian to focus his attention on Senator Coleman, who remains a savvy and fairly popular politician. Enjoying a wave of good press, as the media never ceased being stunned that an actor-comedian could wage a serious political campaign, Franken jumped to a lead against Coleman in numerous polls throughout February and early March. For an incumbent to not only be under 50% but to be trailing this far ahead of Election Day is a sign of great vulnerability.

Yet, it was Franken’s turn to weaken in the months that ensued, as it was revealed that Franken had to pay $70,000 in back taxes and penalties to 17 states. The press started piling on, raising questions about Franken’s sense of business and his competence,  and a SUSA poll found that a majority of Minnesota voters said that Franken should withdraw and that these revelations made them less likely to support him. Election Day is 6 months from now, and Franken will have time to change the topic of conversation, but all polls in the past few months show Coleman has regained a lead and generally comes in above 50%. And Republicans will be sure to use the issue in the fall campaign.

8. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 9)

At the time of my previous rankings, we did not yet know whether Mississippi’s election would be held in March or in November, as Republicans insisted that they could wait until the fall to hold the special election, despite the law’s pretty obvious phrasing to the contrary. In mid-January, a judge ruled in favor of the Democratic Attorney General, setting up a March election, only to be overruled two weeks later by the state Supreme Court. This was a huge relief for Republicans, as it means that they would not have to worry about a low-turnout election in which Democrats would surely be more motivated (as we saw with MS-01, they would indeed have been so) and newly-appointed Wicker will have the advantage of incumbency.

Yet, Democrats have a lot going for them as well, and this judicial decision is the only good news the GOP got from Mississippi over the past few months. First, Democrats managed to unify behind one candidate, former  Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Since this is a special election with no primary, it was not necessarily obvious that they would be able to do so and they had to wait until mid-February to convince former Rep. Snows to not attempt a run.  Second, Mississippi Republicans are in as bad a shape as the national party. Travis Childers’ picked-up MS-01 on May 13th, a district that Bush had carried with 62% and confirming that there is a road to victory for Musgrove — a road that some Democrats believe will be only strengthened by Obama’s presence on the ticket, which will bolster black turnout. Third, the November election will be a special election which in this state means that the partisan affiliation of both candidates will not be written on the ballot. In a state as conservative as Mississippi, that is a great asset for any Democratic candidate, one that helped Childers on May 13th and that will help Musgrove in the fall.

Fourth, Musgrove should almost be considered the incumbent in the race; he is better known than his adversary and he is fairly popular, while Wicker remains rather unknown, which could give the Democrat some of the incumbency advantage. Finally, polls are confirming that this race will be tight, with the latest survey showing Musgrove leading by 8%. It is a partisan poll released by the DSCC, so take it with a grain of salt, but other non-partisan polls of the Musgrove-Wicker showdown confirm that it is highly competitive.

For the rest of the rankings, including the lean retention seats (Oregon, North Carolina) and the quickly developing second-tier races (Texas, Oklahoma), check the full rankings here, on Campaign Diaries.  

Tom Cole dead? Not quite, but John Boehner definitely just took some advice from Bob Barker and spayed his NRCC Chair:

• The NRCC will now wade into competitive GOP primaries when appropriate. This is a significant shift, as Cole’s policy has been to stay out of such contests even when the party believes one candidate would clearly be the best general election bet. In Illinois and Louisiana in particular, Republicans suffered because they fielded a poor nominee. The race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) in New York, which could draw several GOP contenders, could be the first high-profile test of the new policy.
• There will be an “audit” of the three special election losses conducted by two as-yet-unnamed Republican lawmakers, designed to figure out what went wrong and how to avoid repeating those mistakes in the future. This could be an embarrassing exercise for Cole and his top staff, but they agreed to it, likely because they didn’t have a choice.
• The party will step up its efforts to establish special fundraising committees for seats with contested GOP primaries occurring late in the season, which will raise cash that will automatically go to the eventual nominees. This fairly common practice will prevent those nominees from starting the general election race at a financial disadvantage after a costly primary. This effort will be led by Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas), who lost to Cole in the race to chair the NRCC for this Congress. (Emphasis added.)

Oh, and one of the two “auditors” will be Tom Davis, who just wrote a scathing memo about the GOP’s problems as a party. I’d be surprised if his report on Cole is any less harsh.

Cole is in denial mode, though, flatly contradicting Boehner by announcing that, with regard to primaries, NRCC “policy hasn’t changed. There seems to be some confusion about that.” And just to prove he’s utterly delusional, he invoked Lou Gherig:

I feel like I’m the luckiest guy in the conference to have this job.

And we feel lucky to have you, too, Tommy.

On June 3rd, congressional primaries will be decided New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, Iowa, California, South Dakota, and Alabama.  As such, candidates from these states had to file pre-primary financial reports covering the period from 4/1 to 5/14.  We’ve rounded up a few filings of interest below (all numbers subject to rounding; candidate loans or large self-donations excluded where possible):

A few quick notes:

• AL-02: Democrat Bobby Bright is finally getting his act together, raising a respectable haul in a very well-financed field.
• CA-11: What is Dean Andal doing?  Including the $11,000 that he raised in the last six weeks, he’s barely raised $100K all year.  And this guy is supposed to be the GOP’s great hope this cycle?  Now, Andal does have over $500K on-hand, so McNerney is far from safe, but this has got to be disappointing for Tom Cole & co.
• CA-46: Dana Rohrabacher sure is lazy.
• NJ-03: Here’s one quarrelsome primary that the GOP sure didn’t need.  While Jack Kelly and Chris Myers squabble over scraps, Democrat John Adler has taken a monster fundraising lead, with $1.1 million on hand to a combined $200K for the GOP jokers.  With numbers as stark as these, it’s no small wonder that the Hotline pondered aloud yesterday if it’s time for the GOP to “write this one off”.  Ouch.
• NJ-07: Things aren’t quite as bleak for the GOP here, but that’s not saying much.  Stender is heading into the general election with a huge lead over whomever the GOP nominates.

Dan Jones & Associates for Deseret News/KSL-TV (5/13-19):

Jim Matheson (D-inc): 67

Bill Dew (R): 20

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±7)

Matheson gets 93% of Dems, 77% of Indies, and 49% of Republicans.

Dew is notable only in the sense that he has self-funded his campaign to the tune of $250,000 (and raised $65).

NEXT.

Also of note: in nearby UT-03, Rep. Chris Cannon only leads former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by 39-37 in the GOP primary.

Jonah brings the word:

“For the past week I have been considering whether or not to seek the 13th Congressional Seat that has been vacated by the current Congressman. I have received dozens of calls of support, asking me to run and I am very appreciative.

“In spite of that, I have decided to seek re-election for the 23rd Senate District and continue the work that I was elected to do for the people of Staten Island and Brooklyn, as well as helping to take the Senate back into the hands of the Democratic Party, so we can usher in a new era of economic opportunity and fairness for one New York, Upstate and Downstate.”

All eyes now turn to Assemblyman Mike Cusick and NYC Councilman Mike McMahon as we wait for a Richmond County resident to pick up the Democratic banner.

As we wrote earlier, the GOP’s top choice, DA Dan Donovan, won’t run.

Garin-Hart-Yang for Frank Kratovil (4/23-24, likely voters):

Andy Harris (R): 43

Frank Kratovil (D): 34

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±5)

Harris, as you recall, knocked off moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in a contentious primary earlier this year.  Despite Gilchrest’s non-endorsement of war wingnut Harris, at a PVI of R+9.8, this is going to be a tough district for Kratovil to win.  He’ll need to wage an aggressive campaign painting Harris as an extremist in order to have a shot here.

(H/T: RandySF)