Month: June 2008

With the Democratic Party coalescing behind City Councilman Michael McMahon, and the GOP similarly backing former Wall Street executive Frank Powers, the race for what was once a safe Republican seat has now been rated a toss-up, according to Congressional Quarterly. 

The semi-suburban nature of the district gives it a stronger Republican lean than any other part of New York City, but that advantage is countered by the fact that McMahon is an elected official, representing the northern third of the district on the City Council, while Powers has never held elective office. 

Further complicating matters is the fact that Powers still has time to make himself known to voters before November, and McMahon faces a primary challenge from lawyer Stephen Harrison, who ran against the now-scandal-plagued retiring Republican Rep. Vito Fossella in 2006.  The district has consistently voted for Fossella over the past few elections, but has split its presidential votes; in 2000, Al Gore won the district with 53% of the vote, but George W. Bush defeated John Kerry there in 2004, with 55%.

Tomorrow morning, John McCain will be in New Jersey’s 3rd District, campaigning with Mayor Chris Myers, who believes like McCain does, that despite the 325,000 person job loss just halfway through 2008, our economy is strong. We need real common sense solutions and change in Washington with a Democrat like John Adler.

Check out this video put out by the Adler for Congress campaign today in preparation for the John McShame visit tomorrow…

Daily Kos diarist osagecokansasdem brings word of a new internal poll for Democrat Jim Slattery in Kansas:

Cooper & Secrest for Jim Slattery (6/5-8, likely voters):

Jim Slattery (D): 36

Pat Roberts (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.5%)

That twelve point margin is a constant in every poll of this race that we’ve seen so far (Rasmussen in May and Research 2000 last week), so I think we can believe these numbers.

With only 56% name recognition, Slattery does have some room to grow, and Roberts’ numbers are decidedly mediocre: a 47/43 job performance rating and a 48/29 favorability score. Even more startling is the generic Senate ballot, where the GOP is basically tied with the Democrats at 41-40. The numbers certainly suggest that while this is an uphill fight, Slattery has something to work with.

In the presidential race, the poll finds Obama trailing McCain by an eye-popping 45-41 margin in the state. In 2004, Bush smacked Kerry by 62-37 here.

Rasmussen Reports (6/10, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Perdue (D): 47 (39)

McCrory (R): 46 (45)

Other: 1 (10)*

Undecided: 6 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)
*(May poll included Libertarian Michael Munger, who took 4%.)

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has materially better favorables (59-24) than Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (52-38), yet the latter was still able to close the gap. Most prognosticators say that this race leans Dem, but all the polling so far (apart from one slight outlier from SUSA) makes this look more like a tossup, at least for now.

Rasmussen Reports (6/10, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Hagan (D): 39 (48)

Dole (R-inc.): 53 (47)

Other: 3 (2)

Undecided: 5 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

A fourteen-point swing in one month is the kind of thing which always calls one poll or the other into question. In this case, though, we have a third poll to go by. Rasmussen tested the waters here in April and found Dole leading 52-39. That sure makes the middle poll from May look like noise, which Ras suggests may have been due to a post-primary bounce for Hagan. Since then, Dole’s gone up with TV ads, which might have helped bring Hagan down to earth.

Dole is doing very well among Republicans, winning them 90-6. Hagan, meawhile, is at just 68-25 among Dems. Frustratingly, Rasmussen refuses to detail the makeup of its samples (even though they provide crosstabs) so we have no idea what the D-R-I split was here.

The news on the presidential front is a lot better: McCain  edges Obama by just two points, 45-43. Note, though, that Rasmussen has shown NC-Pres virtually tied for three months, with no bounces or dips as with NC-Sen. Still, though, I like the prospect of Obama coattails here.

SSP currently races this race as Lean Republican.

Rasmussen 6/10/2008

Perdue (D): 47 (39)

McCroy (R): 46 (45)

http://rasmussenreports.com/pu…

“Dollar Bill” Jefferson is getting a credible primary challenge this year. (Considering that he’s awaiting trial on corruption charges and was found to have large amounts of cash in his freezer, the question wasn’t really whether he’d get a challenge, but who.) State Rep. Cedric Richmond, who represents part of eastern New Orleans, announced his bid.

In his only veiled reference to Jefferson’s legal problems, he told the crowd, “I promise — and I want to be clear about this — I promise to serve you with the utmost integrity.”

Interestingly, the Times-Picayune described Richmond as a “longtime political ally” of Jefferson, and said that prior to 2006, Richmond stated he would run only if Jefferson didn’t run. Being unacquainted with the backwaters of Louisiana politics, I’m unclear whether that means:

1) he’s broken with Jefferson,

2) he’s running to succeed Jefferson who will soon stand down (and considering that Jefferson’s brother, sister, and niece were indicted last week, he might be feeling boxed in), or

3) he’s running as a trojan horse to siphon support from other “change” candidates to allow Jefferson to squeak through to a run-off. (Like Rep. Karen Carter, who lost the 2006 primary to Jefferson and may come back for another try… I don’t know if she plans to do so; her campaign website hasn’t been updated in over a year.)

For what it’s worth, corruption issues notwithstanding, Jefferson is one of the most out-of-whack Dems in the House, in terms of the relationship between his National Journal score of 73 and the D+28 lean of LA-02.

The NRCC is way, way behind the DCCC in cash on hand… $6.73 million to the DCCC’s $45.27 million as of the end of April. A lot of that probably has to do with big money donors sitting on their wallets, seeing that an investment in the NRCC is about as likely to pay dividends as an investment in that nice man from Nigeria needing your help with his bank account problems. Some of that gap, however, went toward paying for the renovations on Christopher J. Ward’s house.

Politico is reporting today that Ward, the NRCC’s former treasurer, diverted up to $725,000 from the NRCC to his own purposes over the course of six years. (This goes all the way back to Tom Davis’s turn at the NRCC’s helm, so it can’t all be pinned on Tom Cole being asleep at the watch.) Money that was supposed to be used to pay for galas where the President fund-raised for Congressional GOPers instead… well…

Court documents filed by DOJ charge that Ward diverted more than $500,000 from the President’s Dinner accounts to his own use, using the funds to pay his mortgage and to finance nearly $200,000 worth of home renovations.

Original NRCC estimates of how much Ward may have appropriated were along the line of $500-600K, but the NRCC’s outside auditors confirmed today that the actual damage was $725,000. In addition, Ward managed to grab $28,000 from the NRSC via joint fundraising activities and $47,000 from other GOP leadership PACs, for a total of almost $800,000. (Not to mention the $530,000 the NRCC has spent on lawyers and accountants tracking down the fraud!)

“It was important to get to the bottom of what happened,” House Republican Leader John A. Boehner said. “Clearly, it’s not nearly as bad as many of us said it might be.”

Well, it probably is a relief… to the extent that no one higher-up than Ward was found to have been engaged in any embezzling. As for the number of close races coming in November that could have been turned around with that $800,000, the damage can’t be calculated yet.

The Great Orange Satan, in their efforts to move beyond merely reporting polls to actually driving them, polls Oklahoma:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/9-11, likely voters, no trendlines)

Jim Inhofe (R): 53

Andrew Rice (D): 31

(MoE: ±4%)

A 22-point gap: at first glance, not that hopeful for Rice. However, digging deeper into the poll, most of that gap seems attributable to the fact that no one knows who Rice is: 52% of respondents said they were “Unsure” when asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.

Inhofe’s low re-elect numbers show the desire for change is there. It’s up to Rice (and the DSCC) to break through the clutter and let voters know he’s an option:

If the election for US Senate were held today, would you to reelect Jim Inhofe, would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Inhofe?

Reelect 39

Consider someone else 23

Replace 28