Month: June 2008

Now that everyone acknowledges that Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, Charlie Cook has shifted ten distric rating, and boy are they huge.

Primary Aftermath: Race Ratings Change in Ten Districts: House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest updates for districts in which primaries were held on Tuesday, and explains what the conclusion of the Democratic presidential nomination fight may mean in several other districts across the country. We are changing our race ratings in ten districts where we believe Democratic chances of taking Republican-held seats have increased. With these changes, the GOP occupies 21 of the 27 seats now listed in the Toss Up column.

CA-04- OPEN (Doolittle)- Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CO-04- Marilyn Musgrave- Lean Republican to Toss Up

CT-04- Chris Shays- Lean Republican to Toss Up

IL-10- Mark Kirk- Lean Republican to Toss Up

NM-02- OPEN (Pearce)- Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NY-29- Randy Kuhl- Lean Republican to Toss Up

NC-08- Robin Hayes- Lean Republican to Toss Up

OH-01- Steve Chabot- Lean Republican to Toss Up

VA-02- Thelma Drake- Likely Republican to Lean Republican

WA-08- Dave Reichert- Lean Republican to Toss Up

Some like CO-04 and CT-04 were long overdue, but the one that stands out is OH-01. If we can take out someone like Chabot, we’ll have a VERY big night.

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American Political Polling (5/31-6/2, registered voters):

Vic Wulsin (D): 30

Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 24

David Krikorian (I): 13

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The poll also shows that Schmidt has a job approval rating of 23%, and Bush at 40%. But this is one weird poll, and frankly, the numbers seem a little suspect. Was there any attempt made to push leaners?

Here’s a “bonus finding” from the poll: Obama leads McCain by 34-33 in Ohio’s 2nd CD. Let the record show that this is an R+13 district.

These numbers just seem too hard to believe. Full memo below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

Cooper & Secrest Associates for Sharen Neuhardt (5/27-6/2, likely voters):

Sharen Neuhardt (D): 35

Steve Austria (R): 41

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4%)

So despite only having 33% name recognition, Neuhardt only trails Austria, a state senator, by six points.

This is an R+6 open seat that the Democrats’ most-hyped recruit, Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly passed up, saying that Austria was probably too formidable for any Democrat to beat this year.

The numbers suggest otherwise. On the generic ballot, Democrats have a whopping 46-33 advantage over the Republicans. And despite Bush beating John Kerry by a 57-43 margin here in 2004, McCain only leads Obama by 43-40 in the district.

With enough resources, Neuhardt can put this district in play. So far, she’s done a pretty good job, raising $172K in her first fundraising quarter and ending March with a cash-on-hand parity with Austria.

SSP currently has this race on our list of Races to Watch, but it might merit an upgrade in its rating soon.

I am so utterly flabbergasted by this turn of events that I’m completely speechless. From the Staten Island Advance:

An already topsy-turvy political year grew even more so yesterday when Francis M. Powers, the son of GOP designee Francis H. Powers, said he would seek the Libertarian Party line to run for Congress.

“This is not about my dad,” said the younger Powers, 47, a master carpenter from Clifton who plays and sings with the Staten Island band Box of Crayons and runs an indie record label called Penny for the Guy Records. “I’m running against the Republican candidate.” […]

Fran Powers insisted his candidacy is not a “vendetta” against his father.

“I’m not going to say that my dad treated me bad when I was a kid,” Fran Powers said. “I know his policies. I’m running against someone I know.”

Francis H. was quick to release a statement calling into question his son’s “lifestyle”:

“I’ve tried very hard for many years to help my son,” the elder Powers said in a statement released by his campaign.

“Unfortunately, he’s rejected everyone’s help to live a healthy lifestyle. Regardless of whether he wants to run for Congress, I still stand ready to help him move his life in a positive direction.”

The elder Powers did not comment beyond the statement, but a Republican source said that Powers was referring to his son’s “carefree” lifestyle in the music business.

The younger Powers, who apparently has been taking hairstyle pointers from Gary Glitter, will petition to be placed on the ballot as “Francis M. Powers”, and the Manhattan Libertarian Party will assist him in gathering the 3000 signatures necessary to get on the ballot. Failing that, Powers says he’ll try to get the Anarchist Party’s endorsement form his own Anarchist Party line.

I am not making this up.

I am not sure if this has already been posted, but it is a story that should interest everyone.  Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (a prominent Democratic outfit) just released a poll they conducted of the 45 most competitive GOP-controlled districts (as defined by them), and the poll shows that Democratic challengers lead 50-to-43.  

The survey was conducted of 1,600 likely voters from May 19-26.  Very interestingly, the firm did a similar poll four months ago which found Democrats trailing by one point.  This change certainly shows substantial move towards Democrats as we get closer to November.  

Before doing their poll, CQR decided on what they believed were the top 45 most competitive districts currently in GOP hands (I will go over those below), and then chopped them into a first tier and a second tier.  In the first tier districts, Democrats held a healthy 51-to-42 lead.  Perhaps even more interesting, in the second tier races, Democrats lead 48-to-45 percent.  

According to the poll, Bush is weighing down many GOP candidates, as his approval rating in these 45 districts — many of them red districts — stands at 33 percent.  

When named in individually-polled districts, the GOP incumbents received an average approval rating of 38 percent.  Democrats polled 17 points ahead of the GOP on the issue of the economy, and 11 points higher on the war in Iraq.  Republicans polled three points higher than Dems on the issue of handling illegal immigration.  

The poll found that Dems hold a five-point advantage on current party ID, and edge the GOP with independents by a slim 43-to-41.  

Perhaps most troubling is that in these districts, Obama and McCain are tied 47-to-47.  

Here are the districts included in the poll, broken up by tier:

TIER 1.  AZ-01 (Renzi), CA-04 (Doolittle), CT-04 (Shays), IL-11 (Weller), MI-09 (Knollenberg), MN-03 (Ramstad), MO-06 (Graves), NV-03 (Porter), NJ-03 (Saxton), NJ-07 (Ferguson), NM-01 (Wilson), NY-13 (Fossella), NY-25 (Walsh), NC-08 (Hayes), OH-02 (Schmidt), OH-15 (Pryce), OH-16 (Regala), PA-06 (Gerlach), VA-11 (Davis), WV-02 (Capito Moore), and WY-AL (Cubin).  

TIER 2.  AL-02 (Everett), AK-AL(Young), CO-04 (Musgrave), FL-08 (Keller), FL-13 (Buchanan), FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart), FL-24 (Feeney), ID-01 (Sali), IL-10 (Kirk), IL-18 (LaHood), KY-02 (Lewis), LA-04 (McCrery), MD-01 (Gilchrest), MI-07 (Walberg), MO-09 (Hulshof), NJ-02 (LoBiando), NM-02 (Pearce), NY-26 (Reynolds), NY-29 (Kuhl), OH-01 (Chabot), OH-14 (LaTourette), VA-02 (Drake), VA-10 (Wolf), WA-08 (Reichert).  

Keep in mind, these districts were chosen not just based on our chances of winning them, but also on their breakdown (i.e. PVI index).  So, while we may have a mediocre opponent in a district, in a vacuum it can still be considered Tier One.  

While they hit all the close ones, at the outset you can probably pick a bit at some of these selections.  CA-04, MO-06, OH-02, WV-02, WY-AL and probably NC-08 should all be in the second tier as they are fairly strong GOP strongholds and not that close to going blue in the long haul.  While we will not win PA-06, it should be on in the poll as the district is winnable, we just did not recruit a top person.  

In Tier Two, we could argue this, but in my opinion, as it stands now, ID-01, IL-18, VA-10 and probably MD-01 should be Tier Three districts.  You could argue OH-01 being in Tier One.  While NY-26, NY-29, WA-08 and probably CO-04 should be Tier One in terms of flipping, the districts themselves are Tier Two districts.  While we will not win these two this cycle, NJ-02 and OH-14 are certainly competitive for us, we just have crummy opponents for them.  (Incidentally, we need to target these two hard in 2010).    

On balance, this poll is fascinating and I think they did a good job in bracketing the districts by current race and general character.  Clearly, the GOP brand, even in pretty red districts is badly damaged (like we didn’t know that already), and the Democrats have a spectacular opportunity this November.  Heck, even if a handful of these districts are a little poorly-organized by tier, the fact that we are ahead nine points in Tier One — which includes several really red districts like MO-06, OH-02, WV-02, and WY-AL bodes very well for us.  Ditto Tier Two.  

Obviously that Obama-McCain head-to-head is very troubling, but Obama has a lot of time to get and there and make his case to the independent voters in these swing districts.  I like his chances, as it stands.  

You can take this poll with a bit of salt because it is from a Democratic pollster.  Also, with an overall sample size of 1,600, divided by 45 districts, that comes out to an average of just under 36 voters per district — hardly a large sample.  

Yet, while I will not look at this poll as gospel, I think the overall numbers we get are promising and show that at the very least, we have much better strength then the GOP going into November, even in red-leaning districts.  If this poll is accurate, a 25+ seat gain is possible.  

http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?…

How big will 2008 be? Big enough to see a few presumed safe Republican districts painted blue in November? Anything’s possible.

A Goodwin Simon Victoria Research poll (5/19-22, likely voters) of Minnesota’s 2nd CD suggests that this R+2.7 district is turning a bluer shade of pale. From the polling memo:

It has become very clear in this election cycle that many Congressional seats formerly considered “Republican” seats are now in play; very little is safe for the GOP at present. Our recent poll results indicate that Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District has officially reached the tipping point, as the generic ballot between any “Democrat” and a “Republican” for Congress starts out as tied, 40% to 40%, for the first time in this district’s history. Add to this Sarvi’s compelling personal narrative and moderate inclinations, and Democrats have a real chance to take this district in November.

A few other numbers: 76% of voters rate Bush’s job performance negatively, while Kline’s approval rating is at a fairly poor 39%/44%. With no head-to-heads released, we can safely assume that Kline leads at this early stage. However, after hearing a positive statement about the Democratic candidate, Steve Sarvi, Sarvi pulls ahead by 49%-37%.

Now, it takes a lot of money to educate voters, but Sarvi has a compelling profile as a small town mayor and Iraq veteran. If he can get his message out there, perhaps he can do what Coleen Rowley failed to manage in 2006.

One never knows this year.

From The Hill:

Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) is avoiding an endorsement in the closely watched Senate contest to succeed him, so far declining to support fellow Republican Jim Gilmore several days after the former Virginia governor clinched the GOP nomination.

Warner, 81, who announced last September he will retire when his fifth term ends in January, twice shunned inquiries about his stance in the race, directing reporters to a statement that his press office said is not forthcoming.

“I’m not going to keep answering this question about Gilmore,” Warner said. “I’ll get my press office to send you a statement.”

Warner’s communications staff said no statement has been released and that there is no specific timetable for one.

Rep. Tom Davis, unsurprisingly, is also less than enthusiastic:

When asked Wednesday at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast whether he would endorse Gilmore, Davis deflected the question.

“I’m a Republican; I’m going to vote for Gilmore,” he said.

When pressed whether he would endorse the nominee, he said: “What do you mean? Am I going to go up and put my arm around him and say, ‘Jim, you’ve always been my best friend’?”

After briefly walking away, he offered: “Jim needs to do outreach. Jim doesn’t talk to anybody.

“I’ll support the Republican.”

In terms of recruitment and candidate quality, it sure feels like 2008 is going to be like sending the New England Patriots (the Democrats) to take on the Saskatchewan Roughriders (the GOP).

(H/T: Raising Kaine)

Anzalone Liszt Research for Kay Hagan (5/14-21, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 44

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±3%)

This poll was conducted before Dole kicked her statewide advertising campaign in gear, but it’s very much in line with many of the other polls from last month showing Dole with only a slight edge. The most recent poll of this race, by PPP, showed Dole boosting her lead by three points since going up on the air.

This one should be a good race.

Polls close in Iowa at 10pm Eastern and in California at 11pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in two hot congressional primaries:

Iowa: IA-03 (D) | Results: Associated Press

California: CA-04 (R) | Results: Associated Press

2:58AM (James): Second time’s the charm. After an embarrassing primary loss in 2006 to a no-money candidate, Democrat Russ Warner has clinched the nomination in CA-26 against the same opponent. And in CA-42, Ed Chau wins.

2:29AM (James): With 53% reporting, the AP has called CA-04 for Conservative Icon Tom McClintock. Good. In many ways, McClintock fits the Woody Jenkins/Jim Oberweis candidate model: hardcore conservatism and a record of high-profile election losses. As a cherry on top, we have a rather extreme case of carpetbagging here, too. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy (indeed, the odds are rather long) for Charlie Brown, but McClintock’s candidacy provides him with some good dynamics for him to exploit.

1:48AM (James): 40% in and CA-04 still hasn’t budged an inch: 53-39 McClintock.

1:13AM (James): I think they’re taking a ganja break in CA-04, but the latest numbers, with 22% in, still favor McClintock over Ose by 53-39. Theodore Terbolizard is only garnering 2% of the vote so far. Sadly, it appears that we won’t have a new terbolizard to lead us out of the darkness.

12:23AM (James): A few other updates.  The early votes in CA-50 are in, and Nick Leibham is up by 55-45 over Cheryl Ede. In CA-42, people-powered Ron Shepston has powered himself to 22% and third place in the early vote.

12:08AM (James): With 11% in, it’s still 53-39 for the Conservative Icon.

11:40PM (James): With 5% in, McClintock has a 53-39 lead over Ose.

11:14PM (James): With 79% in, the AP has called IA-03 for Lenny Boswell.

10:59PM (James): With 70% in, Boswell has a 58-42 lead. In the IA-04 primary, Becky Greenwald has 50% with 13% of precincts reporting.

10:43PM: With 60% in, Boswell’s lead has widened to 57-43. My back-of-the-envelope says that Fallon would need 60% of the outstanding vote just to pull even – in other words, he’d have to run 35 points ahead of where he’s been all night.

10:26PM (James): With 46% reporting, Boswell is leading Fallon by 56-44.