Month: August 2008

As I have been execting, Kay Hagan is closing in on Elizabeth Dole in a new Survey USA poll.

In an election for United States Senator in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks till votes are counted, incumbent Republican US Senator Elizabeth Dole edges Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan 46% to 41%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. But: Libertarian Christopher Cole gets 7% today, which, when combined with another 5% of voters who are undecided, makes the Senate race today fascinating to watch and difficult to handicap. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, on 07/15/08, which did not include Cole by name, Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. Cole gets 12% of young votes today, siphoning key votes Hagan needs to win. Cole gets 9% of the white vote today, cutting Dole’s lead from 30+ points to 20 points. Though Dole holds 82% of the GOP base today, that’s down from 90% in July. 1 in 5 NC Independents today vote for Cole, which takes key votes away from both candidates. Dole is running for her second term in the United States Senate. Hagan is serving her fifth term in the North Carolina State Senate. Support for 3rd-Party candidates often collapses as Election Day nears, and that may or may not happen in North Carolina in 2008. Today, 12 weeks out, voters with a message they want to deliver to both Republicans and Democrats are using Cole as their protest vehicle.

This was taken before Kay launched her ads, which I expect to pull her even closer.

Another busy night tonight, with three primaries in Colorado:

• CO-02 (D): Jared Polis, Joan Fitzgerald and William Shafroth
• CO-05 (R): Doug Lamborn, Jeff Crank and Bentley Rayburn
• CO-06 (R): Steve Ward, Mike Coffman, Will Armstrong and Ted Harvey

Care to make any guesses? Also, by what margin will Jim Himes beat nutjob Lee Whitnum in CT-04’s Democratic primary? Polls close in Colorado at 9pm Eastern, and in Connecticut at 8pm.

The Florida Division of Elections has released their latest tallies of voter registration by congressional district (as of 7/28), and Democrats are posting some big gains since 2006 in targeted races this fall.

Let’s take a look at the numbers in the chart below. In the 2006 column, we have the GOP’s voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the most recent spread, followed by the net change. In the last column, we’ve ranked the districts according to the percentage change in the GOP-Dem spread. Take a peek:

The ground is shifting quickly in the Orlando-based 8th District, where GOP Rep. Ric Keller could be facing a real battle to hang onto his seat. The next biggest shift is in South Florida, where Democrats have posted huge registration gains in recent months, and where Democrats Annette Taddeo, Raul Martinez, and Joe Garcia are giving Republican Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers the fight of their lives.

The biggest black eye for Florida Democrats continues to be the open seat of FL-15, where despite having cut into the GOP’s voter registration advantage by over 9000 votes, Democrats were not able to find a top-tier candidate for the race. Democrats held retiring Rep. Dave Weldon to a 56-44 margin with an unknown candidate in 2006, but it appears that our candidate this year won’t be much stronger: both Democrats in the race have raised under $40K each.

Still, there’s a lot of good news here, and we should see some exciting races in Florida this fall.

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 6/13-16 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 40 (46)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 52 (50)

(MoE: ±4%)

The June survey may have reflected a bit of a post-primary bounce for Lunsford, who hasn’t really been able to land any solid blows on Mitch McConnell since then. All things considered, Lunsford isn’t that far behind the heavily entrenched McConnell, and there’s still plenty of time left on the clock for this one to get interesting.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

UPDATE: We get emails. Despite Kentucky having a Democratic voter registration advantage of 57D-33R-9I (the same breakdown of SUSA’s June poll), this time SUSA pegs the electorate at 50D-39R-9I. If you adjust the numbers back to the June breakdown, the gap closes to five points. I’m not so sure that we should place much faith in such a method, but it is true that most (if not all) of SUSA’s Kentucky polls from 2007 pegged Democrats at least a few points higher than 50% of the electorate.

(H/T: conspiracy)

This diary discusses a just announced major campaign by FreedomWorks Oregon to try and fool people into thinking that drilling is the only way to secure a sustainable energy future.  Major h/t to the Oregonian on this one (http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/08/energy_campaign.html).

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

According to an article published on the Oregonian’s website (link above), FreedomWorks Oregon announced today that it will launch a more than $1M campaign that intends to:

expose “how anti-energy radicals are opposed not just to energy development but to our modern way of life.”

 As evidence of this they cite a poll conducted by Republican pollster Moore Information services that shows that

solid majorities of Oregonians said they favored energy independence, construction of large wave energy farms in marine reserves off the coast and development of large wind energy farms “in scenic or wildlife sensitive areas in Oregon.”  More than two-thirds of poll respondents also said they believe that environmental groups “can be unfair and unreasonable in their efforts to stop energy development” and that they are unwilling to pay $6 a gallon or more for gas to protect the environment

.

Now you might be asking who FreedomWorks and Moore Information are, so see below for more:

FreedomWorks Oregon:

Founded by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-TX) in 2004, FreedomWorks is a libertarian organization in the model of the Club for Growth.  They are well known for their efforts to propose the flat tax, curb lawsuit damages and school voucher programs.  They are also opposed to Net Neutrality.  The Oregon chapter is headed by Russ Walker, a longtime conservative activist in the state.

Moore Information:

Founded by Bob Moore in 1981, Moore Information is a Portland-based polling firm that works almost exclusively for Republican candidates (including Gordon Smith of Oregon and Don Young of AK).  They are well known for their biased polling questions, such as the following:

Q: “Why do you say things are on the wrong track?”

A (separated by commas): Too many liberals/democrats, education/schools, Condition of government/decision-making process, Irresponsible spending, Taxes, Economy/Business Development, Irresponsible/Unqualified Politicians, Gay Civil Rights, Health Care Concerns, Environmental Issues. See this question on page 2 of the document linked here: http://www.moore-info.com/MI_ORClimateDec07.pdf

His full client list is here: http://www.moore-info.com/clients.html.

So What should we do about it:

If this pisses you off, donate to a good Oregon progressive ASAP to counteract this BS.

Here are some good candidates to donate to:

Jeff Merkley (OR Senate): http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

OR House Democrats (OR Legislature): http://www.oregonhousedemocrats.com/

OR Senate Democrats (OR Legislature): http://www.sdlf.net/

Or if you don’t want to donate locally, there is always that Barack Obama guy: http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

Let me know what you think.

During the last six months of our work around the country, it became evident to us that potential activists who lived in cities did not have the opportunity to receive state-of-the-art political training. At 21st Century Democrats we believe that an essential component to Get-Out-the-Vote activities in urban areas is a trained force of people in precincts and Wards who know how to speak to voters in their neighborhoods. We have been fortunate to work in partnership with several Representatives all around the country in launching our Urban Youth Initiative. This weekend, we have a free training in Kansas City, open to anyone who is interested.

Our plans call for training 500 urban activists in field skills such as targeting, door-to-door communications, canvassing, data collection and analysis, message development and other important elements for winning elections. We’re excited about the political potential of all the people who have signed-up for these trainings. We strongly believe that these efforts will make our cities a better place to live in with equality for all.

The introduction video from our political team is below the jump…

If you’d like to know more details and specifics, sign up here.

As you can imagine, these training’s aren’t free. If you’d like to kick in $10 to buy us a round in appreciation, we’d be very grateful.

Yesterday, Congressional Quarterly changed their rating of New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District from Lean Republican to No Clear Favorite.

This means that every single House rater including CQ, the Cook Political Report, Swing State Project, The Rothenberg Report, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have predicted NJ-03 to be either Tossup or Lean Democrat. This is a historic moment, with Republicans having controlled this seat in Congress since 1882.

This is a prime opportunity for a Democratic pickup in a district that has been trending Democrat, and for the first time in history, Democrats outnumber Republicans.

The campaign has made tremendous strides and is gaining momentum throughout the district. Take a look at the campaign YouTube and see all the great stuff from the Adler for Congress campaign.  

Dino Rossi has been going to great lengths to hide his conservative nature in the Washington gubernatorial race: starting with deferring all questions about issues that are sure-fire losers in a blue state (like abortion, always deferred with an “I’m not running on that issue“), and even going so far as to ditch the entire Republican label in favor of the “GOP Party“.

Rossi has also taken extreme measures to keep Democratic cameramen out of his events (to the extent of roping off large swaths of public property), in order to avoid the fate that befell George Allen two years ago almost to the day. Last Thursday Rossi was making an appearance at the Seattle Police Guild headquarters to receive the Guild’s endorsement, and Democratic cameraman Kelly Akers showed up to join other photographers inside the Guild building. Rossi did not get the chance to welcome his friend Akers here, or welcome him to America and the real world of Washington. Instead, off-duty police officers providing security for the event roughed up Akers and forcibly removed him from the event. According to the Seattle Times:

Akers was confronted by three off-duty police officers, and he says one or more grabbed him and pushed him out of the building. Once outside they continued to argue as the officers held Akers in what he described as a “submission hold.”

That’s just current Rossi campaign policy, apparently:

“We don’t allow them in to collect attack video,” Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait said.

Horse’s Ass has YouTube video of the confrontation, and also, as an amusing compare-and-contrast, video of the rough reception that Rossi’s trackers get when they show up at Christine Gregoire events. As Goldy puts it:

Jesus Christ… they did everything but offer him milk and cookies.

Basswood Research for Sean Parnell (8/5, likely voters):

Sean Parnell (R): 42

Don Young (R-inc): 38

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Last week we saw a poll for the GOP primary in the Alaska House race from Ivan Moore that had Young up by a solid 8-point margin. The Parnell camp counters with its own internal poll showing him beating Young by 4 points. The sample was taken on Aug. 5, so this is post-Trooper-gate.

The poll doesn’t appear to test the various configurations for the general election. The primary will be held Aug. 26.

In other somewhat-related grumpy-old-corrupt-guys-from-Alaska news, the feds are fighting Ted Stevens’ attempts to change the venue of his trial from Washington DC to Alaska, claiming the unlikelihood of finding an impartial jury. This is important, because a) any delay makes it less likely the trial will be resolved before Election Day, and b) Stevens will be able to campaign in his off-hours if the trial is in Alaska, while he can’t if he’s stuck in DC.

The Mellman Group for the DSCC (8/6-10, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 36

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 42

Allen Buckley (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

Very nice numbers for Jim Martin. That’s is what some in the biz would like to call “striking distance”.

Chambliss’ job approval rating is only 37-38 — soft numbers for an incumbent.

Yeah, Chambliss has raised a ton of money, but this is a race that the DSCC has their eyes on, and we could see the committee getting frisky here.