AK-Sen: Begich Raises $412K in Pre-Primary Period

Democrat Mark Begich had an impressive July:

Support for the Mark Begich for U.S. Senate campaign continues to be strong across Alaska with Begich raising more than $400,000 in the five weeks between July 1 and August 6. In the report being sent to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) today, the Begich campaign brought in $412,549.02. […]

In the Pre-Primary reporting period that ran from July 1 to August 6, a total of 1,526 people donated to the Begich campaign. Of those donors nearly 1,200 gave $100 or less.

Begich has raised over $1.7 million since forming his exploratory committee at the end of February, and has $462K on-hand. That CoH number may seem low-ish for a Senate candidate, but bear in mind that Alaska’s media market is dirt cheap — it only costs around $70K for a week’s worth of decent TV advertising. Begich is on pace to raise all he needs to stay up on he air this fall.

Also, a special kudos to the Mark Begich campaign for posting their FEC report on their website. I wish more Senate campaigns would follow Begich’s example.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

CA-46: Crazy Dana Walking Precincts… WHERE??!!

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Ah, how I love me the right-wing blogs! Sometimes, I find it amusing to simply lurk over there and see the vile garbage spew out of their keyboards. But to my surprise, I found out today that some of my recent diaries have been featured on an infamous local right-wing blog.

Apparently, Debbie Cook is foolish for actually talking to voters. I mean, why should she actually take time to talk to voters? “Crazy Dana” Rohrabacher obviously doesn’t. I have yet to see one neighborhood outreach walk, volunteer phone bank, or any other kind of voter outreach activity happening with his campaign.

Well, I guess it’s Crazy Dana’s loss that he doesn’t talk to voters while Debbie Cook does. The more voters here in the 46th District find out about him, the less they like him. And as they learn more about Debbie Cook, the more they like her for her hard work to protect our quality of life as well as her plan to make real change that benefits real people.

OK, so Dana doesn’t want to earn his votes? And he’d rather continue with his extreme right-wing agenda than listen to the more moderate voters in his own district? So be it.

I just hope Dana’s ready to face the consequences. From what I understand, voters don’t like to be ignored. And if Dana keeps ignoring his own voters, he may have a tougher November than what he’s planning for. I just wonder if he & his GOP buddies have actually thought this through.

Whatever. I shouldn’t have to worry about Crazy Dana & his far-right GOP pals. We have enough work to do ensuring that great Democrats like Debbie Cook get elected this fall.

Are you with me? 😉

The Biggest Evironmental Disaster in American History!

This will likely be the longest post I have ever written. But I can’t make claim to most of it, or for the inspiration of writing it. Both those go to Mike Tidwell, whose book, Bayou Farewell: The Tragic Death of Louisiana’s Cajun Coast, was an amazing eye opening book, the best travelogue, and the best environmental expose that I have ever seen, ranking at the very top of the best non-fiction books that I have read.  

The problem? The greatest environmental disaster in country is happening, right now, on Louisiana’s coastline, and nobody is doing anything about, in fact, no one, not environmental activists, know about it.

Swampy South Louisiana, unbeknownst to most people, contains a staggering 25% of America’s total wetlands, 40% of its salt marsh. This area contains a massive ecosystem, as Tidwell notes:

Wetland habitats hold the title as the most biologically productive areas on earth, and the great range of plant and animal life found within Louisiana’s coastal zone provides food and protection for no fewer than 353 species of birds residing here at some point during the calendar year.

The area is also one of the nation’s largest seafood producers, thanks to the marsh and swamp.

Before the morning is out, he’ll pull in a respectable catch of 120 pounds, part of annual Louisiana crab harvest that has no equal anywhere outside of Alaska. Indeed, I learn later, that even in Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay region where I presently live and where the blue crab industry is a source of great local pride and eating crab cake borders on cult behavior-even there as much as a quarter of all crabs consumed actually come from Louisiana during some months.

Yet crabs are just one small part of the take in this massive estuarine waterscape of fresh, brackish, and saltwater habitats spread across endless bays, lagoons, inlets, and marshes shaped by the Mississippi River. Coastal Louisiana, by itself, accounts for an astonishing 30% of America’s annual seafood harvest, measured by weight.

Tidwell describes the beauty of this vast area:

What’s being lost is an American Treasure, a place as big as the Everglades and just as beautiful, where sky and marsh and wildlife converge, where millions of migratory birds thrive on wetlands that once served as muse to John James Audubon.

What exactly is happening? Well, since the 1930s, Louisiana has already lost an amount of land the size of the state of Delaware. Today, more than fifty acres of land are lost everyday, every ten months Louisiana loses an area the size of Manhattan. An area the size of the state of Connecticut will wash away in the coming decades, three million square acres of barrier islands, marsh and wetlands.

Why has this happened? It is not nature made, this is an entirely man-made conundrum, and, again, allow to use several of Tidwell’s sharpest words here, as they say it best.

Today, throughout the wetlands of lower Louisiana, more than ten thousand miles of such pipe lie underwater-criss-crossing, interlocking, overlapping, going everywhere. And to lay pipe across this ocean of marsh grass, an area so vast it’s often called the “trembling prairie” with its pudding like mud below, requires the construction of canals: straight and narrow streets of water dredged four or five feet deep, knifing through the grass…

“This?” I say. With a girth of about two hundred feet, the water almost as wide as Bayou Lafourche itself, I had simply assumed it was another large bayou meandering to the gulf. But Tee Tim informs me this stretch of water began as a roughly thirty foot canal builtby Texaco in the early 1960s…

“This is happening because the Mississippi River doesn’t flood anymore?” I ask Tim…

Reading up on the subject later, I learn that tattered boot of Louisiana was created exclusively by the mighty hand of the Mississippi…

Then came the worst deluge of all, the Great Flood of 1927, which killed over a thousand people in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Intending to end such outburst once and for all, the U.S. Corps of Engineers after 1927 perfected the construction of massive, unbreachable levees along the entire lower Mississippi. This has frozen the river in its present course, which streams past New Orleans and out into the Gulf where its sediments no longer create any land whatsoever, tumbling instead thousands of feet over the cliff-like edge of the continental shelf.

Adding to the damage is an effect called “intrusion” where salt water moves into freshwater. Driving the oysters, alligators and freshwater fish further inland, and, killing thousands of trees. In Houma, in Terrebonne Parish about eighty to a hundred miles South of Baton Rouge you can drive down certain roads and see the groves of hundreds of dead old growth oak and cypress trees.

I recently learned that oil companies had for decades engaged in abusive practices, including dumping massive amounts of a toxic drilling by-product known as brine into holes dredged into the marsh, the dredging which, of course, weakned the marsh more and made it break up more rapidly and letting this toxic chemical spread out over a vast area. Oil Companies did this until 1990. Then there’s the canal’s they cut in the swamp, ten thousand miles of them. These rapidly speed up erosion so much that a canal that was thirty feet wide twenty years ago is over 200 feet wide today. They also let in salt water into the freshwater estuaries which kills thousands of trees and further weakens the soil by destroying freshwater wetland ecosystems. The canals are the main cause of the massive intrusion seen over the last few decades, leaving it’s haunted mark over all the land. Tree graveyards.

The Louisiana coastline is moving inward at a rate of half a mile per year, per year, in places. One of second cousins in Houma had a no hunting sign up about thirteen feet from the waters edge. Eight Months later, eight months, that sign was five feet out in the water. Eighteen feet of ground gone in eight months. Some people are keeping entire towns and neighborhoods together by dumping tens of thousands of tons of oyster shells where there is no soil or a road has completely disapeared. They even use Christmas trees, thousands of them to break waves and try to create new marsh when all of these programs are very useless and the 2050 plan is the only scientifically proven mass-scale plan to save my states beautiful and extremely ecologically important coastline.

The eventual result would the wearing away of the entirety of Louisiana’s jagged, boot-like coastline to something much further inland that was more resemblant to Mississippi and Alabama.

This is the biggest environmental disaster in the United States today. And, Tidwell concurs with this assessment in his book, though he is an admitted dedicated environmentalist. Look at what he states:

The Chesapeake Bay, of course, was another enormous estuary system in decline…But the bay, I realized, had two major factors on its side: much of America understood it was a threatened gem, and relatively aggressive programs were in place to try to bring it back to health. Most importantly, unlike the Louisiana Bayou region, the Chesapeake wasn’t literally disappearing…

Similar thoughts came to mind as I reached the Great Smoky Mountains where acid rain was poisoning thousands of acres of spruce firs and northern hardwoods at higher elevations…

The same held for the Everglades, which lay a few hundred miles away as I rolled further southward, edging the Florida Panhandle. There, not only was is possible to bring back this huge wetlands complex after a century of abuse, but it was actually being accomplished with a recently passed 7.8 billion dollar federal and state rescue plan…

Meanwhile, coastal Louisiana continued its headlong spring toward a point of no return- unsalvageable, perhaps forever- and virtually no one had an inkling. This despite the fact that it provides…plus the practical benefits of a fifth of American domestic oil, a huge amount of it’s seafood, and hurricane protection for nearly 1% of it’s population. These were all functions neither the Everglades, nor the Chesapeake, despite their many merits, could claim.

Why does nobody no about it. Well, the main ideas tossed around are the fact that south Louisiana is so far away from any major news outlets, it’s not near a massive population like the Everglades and Chesapeake Bay, and it doesn’t get the same tourism. 20 million to South Florida every year, less than a tenth of that to South Louisiana, and very little of that to tour the Bayous and see the beautiful and unique coastline of marshes and barrier islands.

And, this is important, not only because of the environmental impact and natural beauty, as mentioned by Tidwell, but also because every 2.7 miles of marsh grass absorb one foot of a hurricane’s storm surge, and therein lies the real reason New Orleans’ leaves failed. In 1960 more than fifty miles of marsh lay between it and the sea, now that number is twenty five mils. The marsh and barrier islands serve as a major natural buffer for hurricanes for the state’s two million + people, some 1.2 million of them living in the southern part of the state that would get smacked hardest by Hurricanes.

He finds out later along his journey, there is a way to stop this, there is a way to save Louisiana’s coastline but we must get to it. Let me quote his epilogue.

Unfortunately, the marsh almost everywhere else along the coast continues its rush toward oblivion, with land still disappearing at the astonishing rate of 25-35 square miles a year. As if this wasn’t enough, a new threat has emerged. Fishermen and biologists have begun to notice huge areas of previously healthy green marsh suddenly turning brown and dying all along the coast…

Whatever the cause, the vast and sickening new swaths of marsh began to die at such a rate that Louisiana Governor Mike Foster, as avid duck hunter across the wetlands, finally became alarmed. Foster organized an event that restoration activists had been seeking for years: a summit of state business leaders, conversationalists, scientists, civic leaders, and government officials designed to fully commit the entire state to saving the coast.

The bill they came up with is the Coast 2050 plan, designed to cure all the problems, by instituting a massive rebuilding of barrier islands, and an equally massive controlled artificial diversions of the Mississippi River. In several, small areas, (30-40 thousand acres), have been done already to remarkable success. In those areas not only has the erosion stopped, there has also been a gain of new land and new marsh. It also calls in for the filling in of all oil pipe “canals”, which are an abusive environmental practice that has caused intrusion and rapidly sped up the natural erosion. It even plants thousands of acres of new marshland.

The full scale project could be done with 14 billion dollars, the cost of six weeks in Iraq to save three million acres of wetland that are more than worth it. It hasn’t been done yet though, pressure needs to be put representatives to sponsor and bring this bill to the floor and get it passed. Quickly. Rita and Katrina did a great deal more damage and sped up the process. Old groves of trees are dying faster, and, if we do not get started on the project in the next decade, (it is a long-scaled project), we may not be able to save and rebuild Louisiana’s coast.

This is so important. I’m glad we’re spending billions to clean up Chesapeake, I’m glad we’re spending billions to repair the Everglades, but Louisiana needs fixing soon, it’s a bigger environmental disaster than either. It will completely cease to exist very soon if we do nothing. This cultural landmark and beautiful area. It would destroy one of the last truly unique individual American cultures, displaces hundreds of thousands of people and leave two million more much more vulnerable to hurricanes.

Also, I would so strongly recommend Mike Tidwell’s book. It is a great expose and travelogue, giving a fascinating insight into the Cajun culture and world, where there are no malls, Wal-Marts, franchise stores. It’s a moving read full of vivid people and descriptions I can vouch for myself, (having been to the areas quite often and seen many of the places he describes myself).

Please help me spread awareness of this problem. Please help me get people involved with this.

P.S. Please vote in poll. There are no counters, so I use the poll to see how many people have read a given post. So, again, please vote so I can satisfy my own curiosity. Thank you.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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OR-Sen: Smith Pulls Back Ahead

Rasmussen (8/7, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/15 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (46)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 50 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Without including leaners (although I don’t see why one would prefer this metric), Smith’s lead is 47-39; Merkley had led by 43-41 in this category in July.

Despite Smith’s lead in two consecutive polls, this one could be anyone’s game come fall.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

CO-Sen: Udall Leads By 6

Public Policy Polling (8/5-7, likely voters, 7/9-10):

Mark Udall (D): 47 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 41 (38)

Undecided: 12 (14)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

A slight tightening, but Udall still has the edge.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Bonus findings: In a hypothetical 2010 matchup, Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar leads Tom Tancredo by 49-37, and Secretary of State (and CO-06 candidate) Mike Coffman by 46-38. In the Presidential race, Obama is holding onto a 48-44 lead over McCain.

CA-26: Dreier By 12

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Russ Warner (7/15-16, likely voters):

Russ Warner (D): 37

David Dreier (R-inc.): 49

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s a poll from CA-26, a race that got some initial enthusiasm earlier in the year but hasn’t received much attention lately. This is an R+4 district that takes in the affluent parts of the San Gabriel Valley between Los Angeles and San Bernardino; it’s one of the few districts in California that qualifies as a swing district, and one where Dreier hasn’t broken out of the mid-50s in the last few elections despite drawing third-tier opposition.

The poll is an internal poll commissioned by Dem candidate Russ Warner. Unlike many internal polls, this one seems pretty plausible: long-term incumbent Dreier is up by a solid margin, but not to the extent that the race is completely locked down. The race tightens to 47-44 when candidates’ bios are read.

SSP rates this race as Likely Republican.

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Weekly Update — August 10, 2008

Drill Here, Drill Now — But What Are The Oil Companies Planning?

Nationally, Drill Here, Drill Now seems to be the only issue where Republicans are gaining any traction with voters during 2008.  For those who don’t know, Drill Here, Drill Now started on the website www.americansolutions.com.  A couple of mouse clicks on the American Solutions website will take you to a screen with friendly welcome from none other than former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.  

Based on where this started, skeptics can easily surmise that Drill Here, Drill Now is nothing more than a political ploy to distract voters from real issues of the 2008 election.  There are many questions about what the oil companies will do if Drill Here, Drill Now actually brings policy changes in Washington.  Do oil companies really want to Drill Here, Drill Now and put more oil on the open market, causing oil prices to go down thus decreasing their record profits?  Could the oil companies and the politicians that are friendly with them have other motives in mind beyond providing less expensive gas at the pumps?

Realize this, there is nothing about Drill Here, Drill Now that will mandate oil companies to start drilling to put more oil on the market.  In fact, all that President Bush and those supporting Drill Here, Drill Now will do is lift long standing moratoriums that have been placed on offshore drilling and drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).  Once the moratoriums are lifted, oil companies can start acquiring leases that will allow them to drill in areas that have been off limits, but not mandate them to do so.  In fact, under our market driven economy, the oil companies can, and likely will, sit on the leases until prices are higher and they can make bigger profits.

People throughout the 5th District have been asking where I stand on Drill Here, Drill Now.  My answer is this: I can support drilling domestic oil reserves if it is needed to stabilize the price of oil for consumers in the United States or if conditions around the world would cause a shortage in oil supplies.  However, if we are going to make leases available for the oil reserves offshore or in ANWR, the leases must have language to mandate that oil companies actually put the oil on the market for consumers in the United States.  I also believe we must address the issue of the 68 million acres oil companies currently have available for domestic drilling but have yet to tap.  If we need to Drill Here, Drill Now, then it must be done to benefit the people by providing affordable gas and heating oil not as a way to make larger profits for the oil companies.

However, Drill Here, Drill Now remains a short term solution at best.  I still believe the only long term solution is a real national energy policy that will invest in domestically produced alternative fuel solutions.  



Sad News Out of Clarion County — Sealy Closing Strattanville Plant

I was very sorry to read in the Tri-County Sunday that Sealy Corporation has decided to close their plant in Strattanville, Clarion County.  The plant, which has been in operation since 1981, will leave 114 workers without jobs when the plant ceases operations in late October.  Sadly, this is the hard truth of how the failing national economy can hit close to home.  We’ll keep the 114 people affected by the closing of the Sealy plant and their families in our thoughts and prayers.



The Week In Review:

This week we attended fairs in Clinton, Elk, Jefferson (Sykesville), Warren and Venango counties and met with the Sierra Club in State College.  We also paid a visit and met with some people at the Centre County HQ on Thursday.  Kelly, Amanda and I missed today’s Potter / Cameron County Democratic Picnic because the location was changed from the Austin Dam Memorial Park to a location in Coudersport.  I had the event on my schedule since May at the original location.  We did make a stop in Emporium for lunch.

Warren County Fair

At the Warren County Fair

Venango County Fair

At the Venango County 4H Fair



Schedule for the Week:

Monday: McKean County Fair — 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM

Wednesday: Emporium / Cameron County — Attending Hilliard for Senate Event — 6:00 PM

Thursday: Bud George Day Picnic — Clearfield County — 4:30 PM to 8:30 PM

  NOTE – Governor Ed Rendell and Auditor General Jack Wagner to attend.

Friday: McCracken for Congress Fundraiser — DuBois Lions Club Sky Lodge  6 PM

  Tickets are available for $20 – Please email mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net.  

Saturday: Car Show — Cameron County early afternoon — McKean County Fair evening.

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Please feel free to share your thoughts with us.  We will continue to travel this district and greet as many people as possible.  Don’t forget to pick up your campaign materials. They can be found on our campaign website.



Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

MN-Sen: Witness party unity before your eyes

I’ll say it up front, I’ve always been bullish on Al Franken, even when others here were ripping on him, and already giving up on the race, and lamenting how the race would’ve been better with Ciresi or Nelson-Pallmeyer.  And one of the arguments used against Franken was that he had pissed off some other prominent Minnesota Democrats like Congresspeople Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison and Amy Klobuchar.  There was quite a bit of hand-wringing going on.

Well, take a look below the fold to see what’s happened in the last couple days.  (And from the links, yes, I got this stuff from MN Publius.

To start off, last week Al Franken visited homeowners facing foreclosure with Keith Ellison.  And unlike previous statements, Ellison offered praise for Franken.

Franken and Ellison also took part in last Saturday’s Minneapolis Urban League’s annual Family Day Celebration at North Commons Park and made stops at two small shopping malls in South Minneapolis. Franken said he’s proud to be on the Democratic ticket headed by U.S. Senator Barack Obama and including Ellison, who is seeking his second congressional term.

“He [Obama] is going to need as many Democratic U.S. senators as possible to make sure that his agenda gets through,” candidate Franken said of Obama’s potential presidency. “I know that Keith has worked hard to get bills passed for addressing and alleviating the housing crisis. When I get to Washington, I look forward to standing beside Keith as we take the next step.”

Having two Senate Democrats in Congress will be helpful to push forward needed housing and anti-predatory mortgage lending legislation, said Ellison. “We need both houses [of Congress] working together and an administration working for us. Al isn’t just another Democrat, but a dynamic, energetic, charismatic voice that can help rally the public will to real solutions.

Then came the news that Sen. Amy Klobuchar is campaigning for Franken.

I’ve gotten to know Al well as he’s traveled the state building a grassroots movement for change, and I know he’ll be a champion for Minnesota families in Washington.

On issues like health care, energy, the war in Iraq, and our economy here at home, Al will reject the failed policies of the Bush administration and fight for change. In fact, just today Al offered some bold, common-sense solutions to strengthen Minnesota’s schools. Al will never sell out to the special interests – he’ll stay loyal to Minnesotans and advocate everyday to help the middle class.

And last but not least, Betty McCollum, who acknowledges her earlier reservations about Franken.

“Crisis” now describes a long list of issues facing Minnesota families and our country. From healthcare to energy prices, the economy to ending the Iraq war – America faces serious challenges that require urgent action.  In Washington, we need leaders who are willing to take America in a new direction.  I am proud of the work Democrats in the U.S. House have accomplished to pass important legislation.  Unfortunately, much of our work has been stalled in the U.S. Senate by an obstructionist Republican minority.  That needs to change.

As I look forward to 2009, I want to be represented in the U.S. Senate by two Minnesota senators who will support and vote to advance our positive, action oriented Democratic agenda to strengthen our economy, keep our nation secure, and invest in our country’s future.  That means in this year’s race for the U.S. Senate I will be voting for Al Franken.

This spring I voiced concerns about material from Al’s past career. To have remained silent when asked would have been hypocritical and dishonest.  I am confident my concerns have been heard and since then I have watched Al’s campaign take steps to address these matters. Now, I believe Al and his campaign are appropriately focused on building a solid relationship with voters based on our shared Minnesota values, ideals, and hopes for the future.  Like all candidates, Al understands that he is not only asking Minnesotans for their vote, but for their trust. As November 4th approaches, Al Franken will earn the trust of Minnesotans and I intend to work with him to win this election.

Fourth District DFLers, thank you for your on-going support.  This year I will continue to campaign hard to turn out the vote to elect Barack Obama to the White House, Al Franken to the U.S. Senate, and win my own re-election to Congress.  I know we will all work together in the 4th District to win in November and together take Minnesota and America in a new direction.

Franken has also just released this powerful ad called “Dr. Bob”, of a conservative Republican who praises Al for his patriotism and his commitment to our troops.

And please, don’t cite the SurveyUSA poll as evidence of how flawed Franken is.  The poll’s crosstabs are bonkers.

Lurking just beneath the surface was a raw reality for the Coleman campaign: the poll’s partisan splits were completely bonkers.

The poll showed a sample of 33% self-identified DFLers and 32% self-identified Republicans. I wasn’t the only one to notice how insane that split is — my former colleague Eric Black also noticed:

But Rasmussen, which doesn’t release full cross-tabs to non-members like me, suggests that Coleman’s share of Democrats has declined from 20 to 10 percent and that this may be the factor that cost him the lead he held a month ago.

Little change

SUSA has shown little change since its previous poll on the race a month earlier. The most suspicious thing to me about SUSA’s current poll is that the Minnesota sample consisted of 33 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans.  Most polls (including the previous SUSA poll in Minnesota) find that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 10-plus percentage points. The poll scholars on whom I rely for guidance tend to have a higher general opinion of SUSA than Rasmussen (and not too high an opinion of any robo-dialers). But if you’re looking for a reason to disbelieve this one, with its large and sturdy Coleman lead, the partisan makeup of the sample is suspicious.

Eric is in the right neighborhood here.  Most polls shoot for about a 36-28 DFL advantage in party self-identification, perhaps a couple of points more due to Barack Obama’s crushing victory in the Super-Duper Tuesday precinct caucuses. SurveyUSA is simply way out in left field with this poll.

According to one reader who apparently has a PhD in such things, if you multiply out the difference in partisan split between the last SurveyUSA poll and this one, Franken is actually doing about four points better than the previous S-USA poll — but I haven’t confirmed that yet…largely because I would need a PhD to understand what the heck I was doing.

I’ll add to that.  From looking at the crosstabs a bit closer, another thing doesn’t make sense.  Coleman’s best age group is young people.  Does that make ANY sense to anybody out there??  Like I’ve said in the past, to take this poll at face value, even forgetting the bizarre partisan split, would be to say that come November, there’s going to be a shitload (a statistical term) of young people that vote for Barack Obama for President, and then pull the lever for Norm Coleman.  Let that sink in.  It makes about as much sense as “Vegetarians for Bush”.

And all this is before the GOP convention heads to St. Paul, and Coleman is forced to be tied to the hip to the national party, which he’s trying to distance himself from.  Senators from other states who are up for re-election are skipping out, but Coleman can’t.  And keep in mind Al’s torrid fundraising pace, which will allow him to be financially competitive with Coleman.

So please, people, stop writing Franken off.  It doesn’t do us any good.

SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings (8/10/08)

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CT-05 (Murphy)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-08 (Bean)
IN-02 (Donnelly)
KS-03 (Moore)
MN-01 (Walz)
NH-02 (Hodes)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-18 (Space)
PA-08 (Murphy)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
AL-05 (Open)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
GA-08 (Marshall)

IL-14 (Foster)
IN-09 (Hill)
KS-02 (Boyda)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
MS-01 (Childers)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)

NJ-03 (Open)
NY-13 (Open)
NY-20 (Gillibrand)

NY-25 (Open)
OR-05 (Open)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)

VA-11 (Open)
WI-08 (Kagen)
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-01 (Open)
IL-11 (Open)
LA-06 (Cazayoux)
LA-04 (Open)
MN-03 (Open)
NJ-07 (Open)
NM-01 (Open)
NV-03 (Porter)
NY-26 (Open)
OH-15 (Open)
OH-16 (Open)


TX-22 (Lampson)

WA-08 (Reichert)
AL-02 (Open)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
CT-04 (Shays)
FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)
FL-24 (Feeney)
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)

IL-10 (Kirk)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MO-06 (Graves)
MO-09 (Open)
NC-08 (Hayes)
NM-02 (Open)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-02 (Schmidt)
VA-02 (Drake)
AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-04 (Open)
CA-26 (Dreier)
CA-46 (Rohrabacher)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen)
ID-01 (Sali)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-18 (Open)
IN-03 (Souder)
KY-02 (Open)
LA-07 (Boustany)
MD-01 (Open)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NE-02 (Terry)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
NV-02 (Heller)
OH-07 (Open)
PA-03 (English)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
PA-15 (Dent)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-10 (McCaul)
VA-05 (Goode)
VA-10 (Wolf)
WV-02 (Capito)
WY-AL (Open)
12 D
18 D, 4 R
2 D, 12 R
17 R
29 R

Races to Watch:































AL-03 (Rogers) IL-13 (Biggert) NJ-04 (Smith)
CA-03 (Lungren) IN-04 (Buyer) OH-03 (Turner)
CA-45 (B. Mack) KS-04 (Tiahrt) OK-01 (Sullivan)
CA-52 (Open) LA-01 (Scalise) PA-05 (Open)
FL-09 (Bilirakis) MN-02 (Kline) SC-01 (Brown)
IA-04 (Latham) NC-10 (McHenry) SC-02 (Wilson)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

  • LA-04 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup
  • Democrats have a key advantage to help offset the Republican lean of this ancestrally Democratic but R+6.5 district: namely, a big gap in recruitment quality. Democrat Paul Carmouche has served as the District Attorney of Caddo Parish, the most populous parish of the district, for 30 years, and is expected to romp in the September primary. The Republican field is more fluid (and less impressive): trucking executive Chris Gorman, Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Thompson, and physician John Fleming have all raised or loaned themselves credible amounts, and it’s possible that the GOP primary won’t be decided until the October 4th runoff.

    Carmouche has out-raised and out-banked his GOP opponents, and is leading the field in his campaign’s internal polling so far. While that gap may close once the GOP candidates raise their name recognition, Carmouche’s law and order credentials and conservative style are a solid fit for this district, and the DCCC has already reserved a big chunk of ad time in this dirt cheap media market.

  • LA-07 (Boustany): Safe Republican to Likely Republican
  • A late-breaking race, the odds are long for Democrats in this R+7.4 district, but the DCCC’s recruitment of state Senator Don Cravins, Jr. makes this contest a bit more interesting. A self-styled conservative Democrat, Cravins raised an impressive $107,000 in the last two weeks of June, and has since been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. While Cravins, who is African-American, would have to beat history in order to become elected in this 25% black district, it’s a challenge worth paying attention to.

  • MO-09 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
  • Despite enduring a not-so friendly primary, Republicans begin the general election campaign for the open seat of GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof with an early edge in this R+6.5 district. Democrats have a credible candidate in state Rep. Judy Baker, who by all accounts ran a strong campaign to win her primary against a former state House speaker and Senate minority leader. The DCCC is taking this race seriously, adding Baker to Red to Blue and placing a $940,000 ad time reservation, which could help narrow the race this fall.