Month: August 2008

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

In case you haven’t noticed, we have something new up at C4O. We wanted to start this because all of you gave us so many good suggestions, but we couldn’t fit them all onto one page. That’s why we’re doing something that will hopefully enable us to give the Rethuglicans a real run for their money.

Want to see what I’m talking about?

This is our brand new C4O Rising Stars project! As you all already know, 2008 is a horrible year to be a CReep. Bush & Cheney are at historic lows of approval. John McBush thinks he can win by being just like Bush. And now, all these House & Senate GOP candidates are trying to “break ties” to the top of the ticket while still accepting whatever help they can get from them. This is why I think it’s time for us to take additional action.

We have many great Rising Star Democrats who may now be seen as “hopeless”, but we know this is just plain wrong. These candidates already have the GOP running scared, and they’re already making a whole lot of progress in turning red seats blue. Let’s help these rising stars make it all the way to DC!

We’ve listened to your suggestions, and with your help we’ve picked some great Democrats from all over the country. We have House candidates and Senate candidates. We have candidates from coast to coast, from the Wild West to the Deep South to the Great Midwest. What these candidates have in common is their success so far in making the Republicans run scared and their ability to win these supposedly “difficult races”.

So please if you can, donate to help us in this cause. These are true progressive heroes who are taking the good fight onto GOP turf. And with our help, these good Democrats can win! 🙂

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama & The Liberal OC)

In case you missed it, something really frightening is coming to Orange County this week. Believe it or not, The Lord of Darkness (aka Dick Cheney) will be coming to here to raise some money for a good friend of his. He’ll apparently be holding a fundraiser at Richard Nixon’s beloved Casa Pacifica (how fitting!) in San Clemente for CA-44’s own Ken Calvert.

Scared yet? I guess the GOP is. I mean, really… They’re bringing in the only person in DC more unpopular than Dubya himself? And this is supposed to attract big $$$$ for Calvert? Oh my, the GOP is in hard times!

Well, we Democrats need not be. We’re making big gains in the 44th District. The partisan gap is narrowing fast, and we’re blessed to have a terrific candidate in Bill Hedrick. Unlike Calvert, Hedrick isn’t a Bush-Cheney acolyte. And unlike Calvert, Hedrick won’t put personal profit over the best interest of the people of the 44th District.

Calvert may have Bush & Cheney on his side, but Hedrick has us… All of us! Let’s show the GOP big wigs that our people power beats their dirty money.

Are you ready to show Dick Cheney & Ken Calvert what we think of their “heckuva job”?  

This diary is in reaction to the diary about former Democrat Joe Lieberman giving more money to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) than most Democratic Senators. It’s also a try to get another “use it or lose it” campaign going.

All numbers below the fold.

UPDATE 8/13/2008:

When I looked through all the numbers I was surprised that several Senators did not have a PAC. I now learned that Sen. Schumer does have a PAC (Impact). For some reason it’s not listed on Open Secret’s Chuck Schumer page. His PAC has contributed to the DSCC and individual Senate candidates. I’ve updated the numbers below.

Listed below are all the members of the Democratic Caucus in the U.S. Senate with their current cash-on-hand numbers of their campaign accounts and their PACs. Listed below are the amounts given to the DSCC through their campaign accounts (not sure if there are any legal limits) and through their PACs (I think the legal limit here is $15,000 per quarter, not sure though). Also listed are contributions either through their campaign committees or their PACs to individual Democratic candidtes for the Senate in 2008.

I researched the numbers using the FEC homepage and the list of leadership PACs provided by Open Secrets.

Daniel Akaka (2012):

current CoH: $101k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $50,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $50,000

Max Baucus (2008)

current CoH: $5,457k

current PAC CoH: $309k

DSCC: $585,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $75,000

total given: $690,000

Evan Bayh (2010)

current CoH: $10,634k

current PAC CoH: $572k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $12,000

total given: $12,000

Joe Biden (2008)

current CoH: 2,000k

current PAC CoH: $49k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $35,000

total given: $65,000

Jeff Bingaman (2012)

current CoH: $759k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $250,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $29,000

total given: $279,000

Barbara Boxer (2010)

current CoH: 3,547k

current PAC CoH: $427k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $79,500

total given: $109,500

Sherrod Brown (2012)

current CoH: $768k

current PAC CoH:64k

DSCC: $150,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $91,000

total given: $271,000

Robert Byrd (2012)

current CoH: $110k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Maria Cantwell (2012)

current CoH: $81k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $10,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $1,000

total given: $11,000

Ben Cardin (2012)

current CoH: $195k

current PAC CoH: $32k

DSCC: $105,000

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $6,600  

total given: $131,600

Thomas Carper (2012)

current CoH: $903k

current PAC CoH: $174k

DSCC: $350,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $92,000

total given: $472,000

Bob Casey (2012)

current CoH: $92k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $10,000

total given: $10,000

Hillary Clinton (2012)

current CoH: $278k

current PAC CoH: $5k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $100,000

Kent Conrad (2012)

current CoH: $2,067k

current PAC CoH: $77k

DSCC: $200,000

DSCC through PAC: $45,000

2008 Sen candidates: $92,500

total given: $337,500

Chris Dodd (2010)

current CoH: $123k

current PAC CoH: $115k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Byron Dorgan (2010)

current CoH: $1,430k

current PAC CoH: $89k

DSCC: $75,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $16,500

total given: $121,500

Dick Durbin (2008)

current CoH: $8,145k

current PAC CoH: $121k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $150,000

total given: $180,000

Russ Feingold (2010)

current CoH: $2,277k

current PAC CoH: $369K

DSCC: $45,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $46,500

total given: $121,500

Dianne Feinstein (2012)

current CoH: $2,697k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $500,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $500,000

Tom Harkin (2008)

current CoH: $4,109k

current PAC CoH: $21k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $85,000

total given: 105,000

Daniel Inouye (2010)

current CoH: $1,206k

current PAC CoH: $21k

DSCC: $175,000

DSCC through PAC: $30k

2008 Sen candidates: $120,000 (plus $10k for Ted Stevens)

total given: $325,000

Tim Johnson (2008)

current CoH: $2,724k

current PAC CoH: $58k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $0

2008 Sen candidates: $11,500

total given: $11,500

Ted Kennedy (2012)

current CoH: $5,657k

current PAC CoH: $130k

DSCC: $250,000

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Senate candidates: $49,500

total given: $314,500

John Kerry (2008)

current CoH: $8,829k

current PAC CoH: $80k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Senate candidates: $27,000

total given: $67,000

Amy Klobuchar (2012)

current CoH: $504k

current PAC CoH: $73k

DSCC: $50,000

DSCC through PAC: $43,500

2008 Sen candidates: $48,300

total given: $141,800

Herb Kohl (2012)

current CoH: $15k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Mary Landrieu (2008)

current CoH: $5,515k

current PAC CoH: $23k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $78,500

total given: $108,500

Frank Lautenberg (2008)

current CoH: $1,290k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Patrick Leahy (2010)

current CoH: $1,121k

current PAC CoH: $180k

DSCC: $110,000

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Sen candidates: $100,000

total given: $225,000

Carl Levin (2008)

current CoH: 4,341k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $28,000

total given: $28,000

Blanche Lincoln (2010)

current CoH: $526k

current PAC CoH: $289k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $68,000

total given: $198,000

Claire McCaskill (2012)

current CoH: $78k

current PAC CoH: $19k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $28,300

total given: $58,300

Robert Menendez (2012)

current CoH: $824k

current PAC CoH: $267k

DSCC: $110,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $72,500

total given: $212,500

Barbara Mikulski (2010)

current CoH: $658k

current PAC CoH: $51k

DSCC: $10,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $39,000

total given: $79,000

Patty Murray (2010)

current CoH: $2,047k

current PAC CoH: $108k

DSCC: $200,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $108,500

total given: $338,500

Bill Nelson (2012)

current CoH: $1,817k

current PAC CoH: $26k

DSCC: $150,000

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $63,500

total given: $233,500

Ben Nelson (2012)

current CoH: $296k

current PAC CoH: $211k

DSCC: $90,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $25,000

total given: $145,000

Barack Obama (2010)

current CoH: $122k

current PAC CoH: $96k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Sen candidates: $68,000

total given: $83,000

Mark Pryor (2008)

current CoH: $3,606k

current PAC CoH: $90k

DSCC: $200,000

DSCC through PAC: $15,000

2008 Sen candidates: $52,400

total given: $267,400

Jack Reed (2008)

current CoH: $3,788k

current PAC CoH: $87k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $112,500

total given: $142,500

Harry Reid (2010)

current CoH: $2,511k

current PAC CoH: $685k

DSCC: $105,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $200,000

total given: $335,000

Jay Rockefeller (2008)

current CoH: $3,336k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $350,000

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $4,000

total given: $354,000

Ken Salazar (2010)

current CoH: $1,838k

current PAC CoH: $60k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $55,000

total given: $85,000

Chuck Schumer (2010)

Updated!

current CoH: $10,309k

current PAC CoH: $150k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $210,000

total given: $240,000

Debbie Stabenow (2012)

current CoH: $347k

current PAC CoH: $71k

DSCC: $60,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $88,000

total given: $178,000

Jon Tester (2012)

current CoH: $62k

current PAC CoH: $31k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $35,000

2008 Sen candidates: $4,000

total given: $39,000

Jim Webb (2012)

current CoH: $171k

current PAC CoH: $67k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $20,000

2008 Sen candidates: $11,000

total given: $31,000

Sheldon Whitehouse (2012)

current CoH: $41k

current PAC CoH: $28k

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: $43,500

2008 Sen candidates: $90,000

total given: $133,500

Ron Wyden (2010)

current CoH: $1,266k

current PAC CoH: $186k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $18,000

total given: $148,000

Independents caucsing with Democrats:

Bernie Sanders (2012)

current CoH: $55k

current PAC CoH: none found

DSCC: $0

DSCC through PAC: n/a

2008 Sen candidates: $0

total given: $0

Joe Lieberman (2012)

current CoH: 2,011k

current PAC CoH: $489k

DSCC: $100,000

DSCC through PAC: $30,000

2008 Sen candidates: $22,500

total given: $152,500

These numbers vary from the Lieberman diary cited above because any contributions after June 30 were not included in the totals.

Notes:

All amounts above are for the 2007/2008 cycle up until June 30, 2008. Any money contributed to the DSCC or individual candidates by these Senators since July 1 is not included in the totals! So, there may have been some changes in the past few weeks.

Also, please take each Senator individually. Some have very low Cash-on-Hand numbers, so they wouldn’t be able to give much. Others have millions and are sitting on it. Others have competetive races this year. Some are Freshmen, some are recuperating from their presidential campaigns.

Anyway, there clearly are a couple of people who should be targeted by another “use it or lose it” campaign. What do you think?

Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD & Open Left

Rasmussen (8/7, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/7 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 53 (49)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 42 (38)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Despite a flurry of paid and earned media that came with his gubernatorial primary victory over Sarah Steelman earlier this week, it looks like Kenny Hulshof’s nomination bounce has not arrived. He’ll have a steep hill to climb if he intends to pull even with Democrat Jay Nixon, the state’s longtime attorney general.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

I posted this on daily kos last night. Please read it and let me know what you think.

Unfortunately, my home state of Louisiana is one of the few states that will probably shift ideologically towards the GOP this election cycle. I apologize to the other 49 states (even Utah). If I were Obama, I’d focus on GA or NC or MS.

But the idea that Sen. Mary Landrieu is vulnerable this cycle is untrue. Yes, she was first elected then reelected by the slimest of razor thin margins in ’96 and ’02, but she actually faced opponents then. John N. Kennedy, her “Republican” opponent is a joke. This is evidenced by the fact that he switched from DEM to GOP in an overwhelmingly DEM year. One may argue that Hurricane Katrina hurt her chances, but most African-American refugees moved either to Baton Rouge or Lafayette. (On a side note many who moved out of state to Houston were from St. Bernard Parish, a republican-dominated suburb.)

Also, most people don’t blame her for the government’s response. Indeed, she is seen as one, perhaps the only one, who gave her all to see Louisiana renewed. Most Louisianians, myself included, blame both Bush and then-Gov. Blanco. Quite a few blame Vitter for not having any gall to stand up to Bush. But few blame Mary.

And, last but not least, she has millions more than Kennedy to spend on this campaign. Even if the NRSC pumps $ into this race (i hope they do) it’ll be a waste. Don’t worry, Mary will win a 3rd term much more solidly than her first 2.

Part two: why Erik Fleming is a viable candidate in MS-A.

In 2006, Erik managed more than a third of the vote. I know what you’re thinking…he got beat 2:1 in a democratic year and he’s a viable candidate? But hear me out.

First, Sen. Obama’s coattails will greatly benefit Democrats in Mississippi. GOTV was not nearly as well organised in 2006 as it is now. Black voter registration drives will meet their goal of registering 100,000 new voters this cycle.

Second, Ronnie Musgrove’s coattails will help. The DSCC will be dumping $$$ into this state for Musrove, so why can’t they drop 50k for Fleming? He could do a lot with that money. Oh, and all this talk about Musgrove’s party ID not being on the special election ballot giving him an advantage is sillyness, as everyone in MS remembers his governorship. Everyone knows he’s a Democrat. (And, barring a macaca gaffe on his part, he will probably beat Sen. Wicker.) Studies show that people willing to vote for one party in a federal race are more willing to support that same party in other federal races. This only showed effect on down ballot, not the presidential level. Won’t help Obama much, but it could help Fleming.

Third, Fleming was totally unknown in 2006. His grass roots campaign was not enough, sadly. He was drastically outspent because he raised very little money (less than $45,000 for the whole cycle). Unfortunately, his pitiful fundraising abilities look to repeat this cycle unless you help him out.  But now he has gotten through one statewide race. He’ll win his second if we help him enough.

Fourth, Trent Lott, Fleming’s 06 opponent, was much more powerful in DC and much more popular in MS than Thad Cochrane. He was a tougher opponent. And Erik walked away with more than a third of the vote, a % that will only increase as GOTV efforts strengthen in the South. Cochrane gonna have to go sometime, why not now?

Fifth, he is a liberal. I know! A liberal in mississippi! Finally. He has relatively liberal social views, wants withdrawl from Iraq, and is against drilling in ANWR. See his website for all his views.

But, and this is the good bit, he is not seen as ‘tax and spend librul’ like Vivian Figures is in AL. He can paint himself as a moderate to conservative like Musgrove. Low name recognition is a good thing sometimes 🙂

So, please, if you were planning to give a few dollars to Landrieu to ensure her reelection, don’t. Instead, Donate to Erik Fleming!

And, most importantly of all, think positive.

Yes, MS-A is the longest of longshots, but we didn’t take Congress in aught six by thinking about what we couldn’t win. It’s called a 50 state strategy for a reason. Never say never.

Almost forgot, we have to get rid of Dollar Bill Jefferson in NOLA. Support Helena Moreno for LA-02!

Ivan Moore Research (7/18-22, likely voters):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 52

Don Young (R-inc.): 37

Don Wright (I): 7

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 40

Sean Parnell (R): 43

Don Wright (I): 5

(n=505)

Lost in all the hubbub from a couple weeks ago when several polls showed Mark Begich opening up a huge lead on Ted Stevens (even before the Stevens indictment) was that, in the fine print, Ivan Moore also polled Alaska’s House seat as well. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz leads corruption-scented incumbent Don Young by a sizable margin but barely loses to comparatively clean Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

The good news for Berkowitz: the primary matchups are also polled, and this shows Young with an edge over Parnell. The poll was taken just as Trooper-gate was breaking (in fact, that’s one of the problems with polling over multiple days: Trooper-gate was significantly more broken on the 22nd than on the 18th), so it may show Parnell getting hit with some Palin blowback. He may be in an even worse position now, as he’s taken a decidedly low-profile approach since the scandal surfaced. The primary is August 26.

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54

Diane Benson (D): 25

Don Wright (D?): 5

(n=284)

Don Young (R-inc.): 46

Sean Parnell (R): 38

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 6

(n=250)

Special thanks to Ivan Moore for sharing these numbers with the Swing State Project. The full results are available below the fold.

Which downballot Democratic candidates do you most badly want to see win this November and why?

As for me, I’m very interested in IL-05 – rooting for Mola Rahm big time:

Earlier this week, the DCCC announced that it was hitting back against a recent Freedom’s Crotch radio ad buy against Democrats in ten districts with ads of their own. The DCCC has just filed their independent expenditure reports for the buys, which we’ve rounded up below:

• ID-01: $10,000 in support of Walt Minnick
• LA-06: $13,000 in support of Don Cazayoux
• MI-07: $38,000 in support of Mark Schauer
• MO-06: $24,500 in support of Kay Barnes
• NH-01: $17,000 in support of Carol Shea-Porter
• NM-01: $10,000 in support of Martin Heinrich
• NY-29: $6,500 in support of Eric Massa
• OH-15: $33,000 in support of Mary Jo Kilroy
• OH-16: $17,000 in support of John Boccieri
• PA-10: $7,000 in support of Chris Carney

Expect to see a lot more of this in the weeks and months to come.

Rasmussen (8/6, likely voters, 7/9, 6/9 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (49, 50)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (43, 43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’ve repeatedly proclaimed my boredom with the stability of this race (howzabout a new MO-Gov poll instead now that we’ve had the primary?). And maybe the blogger code of ethics should demand that I recuse myself from reporting this poll since I was actually one of the persons polled. Nevertheless, here’s the new Rasmussen: a little more downward drift for Gregoire, Rossi still stuck in park at 43. It’s 50-46 with leaners pushed.

The same sample gives Obama a 52-40 lead, so Gregoire is underperforming the top of the ticket a bit (again). Given Rossi’s inability to increase his share, though, inertia might be enough to carry her over the finish line (again).