Month: October 2008

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/23-24 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 56 (54)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 34 (37)

Andrew Finkenstadt (L): 4 (2)

Gregory Thompson (CP): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

At some point, we may have to invoke the SSP Mercy Rule on this race; with three weeks left and Nixon up by 22, it seems we can safely close the book on this race and put it on the shelf next to the Virginia senate race. Nixon leads in every region of the state, even the bible-thumping Southwest; he leads among gun owners and regular church goers. Add to this the knowledge that Hulshof, short on money, is drawing down his TV ad campaign (h/t RandySF).

Bear in mind this is the same sample that gives Obama a probably too-good-to-be-true lead in Missouri of 51-43. Even if it’s an overly optimistic sample, though, this isn’t the kind of deficit anyone comes back from.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded this race to Likely Democratic.

This one isn’t available online yet, but the Portland-based KATU-TV just aired the results of a new poll that they commissioned of the Oregon Senate race. Let’s have a look.

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/22-23 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 46 (44)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (42)

Dave Brownlow (C): 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Check out the Pollster.com trend (which does not yet include this poll). Call it a downward spiral for El Gordo, if you will:

UPDATE: Crosstabs available here. And here’s a bonus finding for you: Obama leads McCain by 57-40 in the same poll. (H/T: skywaker9)

I can’t believe my eyes! Look at this:

Earlier in the day, DavidNYC challenged the SSP community to raise $500 for Georgia Senate candidate Jim Martin, who is currently locked in a tight race with the odious GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Well, you guys answered that call to action (and then some), and the SSP Blogfather himself has laid down five Franklins as a matching gift just a few minutes ago.

Give yourselves a big pat on the back. You guys have truly went above and beyond to both help Jim Martin scrape together the resources he needs and to help us meet our goals. While we won’t be moving the goalposts again (at least, not right now), if anyone wants to help push us past $5,000, you are certainly welcome to.

Once again, thank you for your generosity!

This is clearly the point in the election campaign where you get a pretty firm idea who will win or lose a lot of races, and this is one of them. According to KY3 Political Note is reporting that Republican Kenny Hulsolf is caling back his ad campaign.

Kenny Hulshof’s campaign for Governor ran less television ads on KY3-TV this past week than it did the week before, a potential troubling sign of the financial state of his campaign, political insiders tell the KY3 Political Notebook.

According to KY3 Sales records, Hulshof spent $19,000 on television ads on Springfield’s top-rated television station for this week, beginning Oct. 6th. On the previous week, beginning Sept. 29th, the Hulshof camp spent $37,000 on KY3. That’s almost a 50 percent cut in ad buys in just seven days. For the week of Sept. 22, Hulshof spent $40,000 on KY3.

For comparison, Jay Nixon’s campaign is moving in the opposite direction, incrementally increasing its advertising week by week. For the week of Sept. 22, Nixon spent $50,000 on KY3. On Sept. 29th, the campaign jumped to $56,000 worth of ads for the week. The past week, beginning Oct. 6th, Nixon spent $62,000 on KY3.

It’s been expected that Nixon would win and the money obviously shows. Now the DGA can focus on helping our candidated in WA and NC and possibly salvage something out of IN.

Bennett Petts & Normington for the DCCC (10/8-9, likely voters):

Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 46

Bill Cassidy (R): 29

Michael Jackson (I): 9

(MoE: ±4.9%)

That spread is very similar to a recent Anzalone Liszt internal for Cazayoux showing a 48-32-9 race. While I’m still not comfortable seeing turncoat Dem Michael Jackson getting nearly one-tenth of the vote, that number could come down a notch in November (as it often happens with third-party challengers), and the DCCC already has boots on the ground with a well-organized field campaign here.

It seems that for all the hype, we haven’t seen any evidence that Cassidy is really catching on so far.

This is ugly:

West Palm Beach Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose predecessor resigned in the wake of a sex scandal, agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and was threatening to sue him, according to current and former members of his staff who have been briefed on the settlement, which involved Mahoney and his campaign committee.

Mahoney, who is married, also promised the woman, Patricia Allen, a $50,000 a year job for two years at the agency that handles his campaign advertising, the staffers said. […]

Friends of Allen told ABC News that Allen sought to break off the affair when she learned Mahoney was allegedly involved in other extra-marital relationships at the same time.

Her friends say she told them Mahoney threatened that ending the relationship could cost her the job.

You don’t wanna listen to the audio tape, either. Brutal.

(H/T: Dave D)

The latest in my postings on Oregon politics is a discussion of how I intend to vote when I get my ballot on Friday or Saturday. I am posting this now both to foster discussion and because, especially on the ballot measures, I am willing to listen to arguments on whether I am wrong to think about voting the way I intend to.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

In each case I post my vote and then explain why I am voting the way I am.

The Easy Stuff:

President-Obama/Biden (D)-Does anyone here really need me to explain why I am voting this way for President?  No, good.  Yes we will win Oregon!

Senate-Merkley (D)-I have supported Jeff throughout the primaries (I gave him my first donation last fall) and am not going to stop in my efforts to send this progressive to Washington.  Jeff is one of the smartest politicians I know.

Congress (OR-1)-Wu (D)-I am not the biggest Wu fan in the world but he’s done well enough to earn my vote.

State Rep (HD 27)-Read (D)-Tobias is a rising star in Oregon Democratic politics and I am proud to support him.

State Senate (SD 14)-Hass (D)-I helped out with his campaign four years ago when he was still a State Rep. and have always admired this former newscaster turned politician.

SOS-Brown (D)-Kate Brown will be a fine choice to replace Bradbury, all the desire to protect the vote without the random unproductive blasts of partisanship Bradbury has undergone at times.

AG-Kroger (D)-I supported his opponent in the primaries but am proud to support John as he becomes Oregon’s new AG.

Treasurer-Westlund (D)-Ben Westlund is one of my favorites, of any party, and is proof that some Repubs are smart enough to see the light.

Labor Commissioner-Avakian (Nonpartisan)-Brad was appointed to fill this job and will do well.

Statewide Ballot Measures:

Measure 54 (School Board Elections)-YES-Technical fix to an outdated clause.

Measure 55 (Redistricting)-YES-Another easy yes vote on a technical fix.

Measure 56 (Partial Double Majority Repeal)-YES-The double majority is one of the most anti-democratic laws out there and this will mostly eliminate it.

Measure 57 (Alternative Mandatory Minimum Sentence Measure)-YES-I’m not a huge fan of this but it’s a damn sight better than Mannix’s and if both pass the one with the most “Yes” votes gets enacted.

Measure 58 (ESL Teaching Limit)-NO-I am not going to support this measure first because its a Sizemore measure but then because it’s a piece of crap, limiting ESL teaching is a bad idea.

Measure 59 (Full Federal Tax Deduction)-NO-Back for a third try I am not going to vote for a measure that gives most of its benefits to a few very rich Oregonians.

Measure 60 (Teacher Merit Pay)-NO-This measure is nothing more than Sizemore’s latest attempt to f-k with the Teacher’s union.  Not to mention that the whole idea of merit pay is fraught with pitfalls.

Measure 61 (Mannix Mandatory Minimum Measure)-NO-Throwing everyone in jail who’s every done anything bad for a long time is NOT the answer.

Measure 62 (15% of Lottery Funds to Public Safety)-NO-I am voting no because this dilutes the funds given to education and parks from the lottery system.

Measure 63 (Exemption from Permit for small home renovations)-NO-Permits serve a good public purpose by making sure that all work done is safe.  When even the building companies oppose this measure you can be sure it is a bad idea.

Measure 64 (Ban on Public Employee Political Activity)-NO-Just another tool in Sizemore’s wars with public employee unions.  Another bad idea by Bill.

Measure 65 (Top Two Primary)-NO-If you want to vote in a primary, join a party.  In addition, this eliminates the role of third parties because they’d have to finish in the top 2 to make the general.  When Dan Meek opposes something like this, and he does according to his voter’s pamphlet statement, I know it’s a bad idea.

Local Measures:

Measure 34-155 (Charter Update)-YES-Some cleaning up of the Washington County Charter, looks good to me.

Measure 34-159 (Fairgrounds Bond)-YES-The Washington County Fairgrounds need this bond to keep pace with the times.

Measure 34-164 (Transportation Fee for New Developments)-YES-Builders ought to be charged more for infrastructure built as a result of new developments.

Measure 26-95 (Portland CC Bond)-YES-I went to PCC in lieu of my senior year of HS and its a great place.  Especially with the economy down and people needing to be retrained, PCC needs more facilities.

Measure 26-96 (Oregon Zoo Bond)-YES-The Oregon Zoo is one of the best in the country, this bond will ensure it stays that way.

Measure 34-154 (TV F&R Bond)-YES-Gotta love our local fire department.

Measure 34-156 (T Hills Parks and Rec Greesnspace Bond)-YES-Yes for more greeenspaces!

Let me know what you think.

Hamilton Campaigns for Joe Garcia (10/8-9, likely voters, 7/7-13 in parens):

Joe Garcia (D): 42 (33)

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45 (55)

Undecided: 13 (13)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

That’s some big movement for Joe Garcia, and right in line with two other recent polls of this race. Carlos McDonald had Diaz-Balart up by 43-41, while Research 2000 pegged the race at 45-41 for Diaz-Balart. There’s one big difference between this poll and R2K’s poll — and that’s the Presidential preference of the district.

Research 2000 gave McCain a 53-38 margin here, indicating no coattails whatsoever to help Garcia. This internal poll, however, finds Obama with a 47-43 lead in the district — up considerably from a 40-49 deficit in July. Bear in mind that this is an R+4.4 district, albeit one that has seen a dramatic Democratic voter registration surge.

In any case, we now have three recent polls showing Diaz-Balart lingering in the mid-40s, which is not a comfortable place for any incumbent to be.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

ABC and the political wire are reporting that Tim Mahoney is in a bit of a scandal

(http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5997043&page=1)

On one hand he isn’t gone yet. And we have a nice majority which it would seem will only rise.

None the less no one likes losing a seat much less one we were winning in.

I don’t think this will have any national play but could spell the end for the Dems holding the seat