Month: October 2008

Check this shit out. Insider Advantage (PDF) (10/9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 45

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45

Other: 2

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Hot damn. While Insider Advantage doesn’t make its internals and crosstabs public, this is in line with just about every other recent poll we’ve seen in this race. There is just no doubt now that this is a seriously hot contest, and a winnable seat for Dems.

Which is why I’m going to implore you once again to chip in and help out Jim Martin’s campaign. Over the years, I’ve learned a lot about the blogosphere’s fundraising capabilities. One thing that’s become clear to me is that we function best when we act as a first mover – when we jump in early, get the ball rolling, and build up some buzz. In the right cases, that excitement draws in the bigger players and special things can really happen. And I think this is one of those cases.

However, we all know that for Team Blue to have a serious shot here, Chuck Schumer and the DSCC have to get involved. But like James said, we need to put our money where our mouths are – if those of us who are clamoring to make this a marquee race don’t pony up, why should the big boys?

I should add, though, that this fundraising push is not just about momentum-building. Jim Martin is going to need every last dime he can get his hands on. $2300 won’t cover the cost of TV ads, but it can pay for vans to transport voters on election day, boxes of palm cards, pizza for the staff, you name it. In a race as tight as this, everything counts, large and small.

So please, I implore you – dig deep. I know things are scary economically right now and that this ask is probably not coming at a good time for most folks. But if we want Barack Obama to have a real shot at undoing the mess that eight years of Bush, Cheney and McCain have gotten us into, then he’s going to need progressive populist partners like Jim Martin. Let’s make it happen!

(Hat-tip: RandySF)

UPDATE: Can’t believe I forgot the bonus finding! McNap leads by just THREE points statewide (PDF), 49-46. Yes, in Georgia.

LATE UPDATE: Wow! We only began late this afternoon and we’re already at 19 contributions and $923 donated. Can we make it an even 20/$1000?

Illinois 10th Congressional District Democratic candidate Dan Seals and communications director Elisabeth Smith pose with SSP’s favorite babka.

P.S. – Have you donated to Jim Martin yet?

Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/6-8, likely voters):

Bob Lord (D): 45

John Shadegg (R-inc): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hot damn. Bob Lord and the DCCC have been pummeling Shadegg over the airwaves in recent weeks (just check out their latest ad), while Shadegg has mostly been yawning his way through the past month. A recent Roll Call article suggests that Shadegg has been caught completely off-guard, and is struggling to adjust.

Daily Kos will also be releasing a poll of this race soon, so I’m looking forward to seeing what their numbers tell us.

A new Insider Advantage poll came hot off the presses and has the Georgia Senate race all tied up at 45%% each.

In the latest InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position poll, Democratic challenger Jim Martin has pulled to a tie with U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate race in Georgia. In other polling, the Georgia presidential race has tightened substantially, and Barack Obama leads in Ohio.

These major changes — especially Chambliss’ dramatic tumble from safe frontrunner — reflect the turbulent nature of the electorate, as well as the economy, in the weeks leading to the election.

IA does not have the best reputation in the world, but it is in line with other polls. Now where is the DSCC?

Many times over the past few months, we’ve been asked if and when we’d fundraise for another candidate. We’ve said all along that we’d hold our fire unless and until we saw a very special opportunity emerge. That time is now.

Over the past two cycles, SSP has only endorsed three candidates: Jon Tester and Paul Hackett in 2005 and Travis Childers earlier this year in his groundbreaking Mississippi special election race. Today, we add a fourth: Georgia Senate candidate Jim Martin, who is waging an uphill but increasingly competitive battle against the repugnant GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

As with Childers, we were the first prognosticator to give this race a highly competitive rating, and the polls have shown this contest dramatically tightening in recent weeks. We would never ask our readers to donate to a candidate unless we truly believed that we stood a fighting chance of winning — and I believe that Jim Martin is within striking distance.

As Markos writes, Jim Martin is a progressive candidate across the board — a veteran state legislator, a sharp consumer advocate and friend of labor, and a thoroughly committed Democrat. You couldn’t ask for a better trade than replacing Saxby Chambliss, a man who slandered triple-amputee Max Cleland in his 2002 Senate race, with Jim Martin.

We’re not predicting a Martin win. But we are saying that this is a crucial opportunity, and Martin needs every last dollar he can get. While we would all love for the DSCC to flood Georgia with ads and resources, it’s time to put our money where our mouths are. If we expect Chuck Schumer to step up, we should be prepared to do the same.

Our goal? The same as in April: $2300 for Martin. In other words, that’s the equivalent of one “maxed out” big dollar donation.

Together, we can do this. So please support Jim Martin today with whatever you can manage.

Cooper & Secrest for Mike Montagano (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/9-10 and April in parens):

Mike Montagano (D): 39 (37, 28)

Mark Souder (R-inc): 44 (50, 55)

William Larsen (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are some very exciting numbers for Democrat Mike Montagano, who is running an excellent race against do-nothing GOP congressman Mark Souder. Remember, this is an R+16 district in the corner of Northeast Indiana — a district that Bush carried by 37 points in 2004, but also one that Souder won by a pathetic 54-46 margin in 2006.

Here’s the best nugget of the poll: Among those who have seen Montagano’s ads, he leads Souder by 53-32. If he can continue to get his message out, he has a fighting chance in this deep red district.

Anzalone Liszt for Bobby Bright (10/5-7, likely voters, 8/3-6 in parens):

Bobby Bright (D): 46 (50)

Jay Love (R): 45 (40)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bright leads among Independents (51-37), and has a higher favorable rating than Love (58-27 compared to Love’s 50-33), but the race has definitely tightened — thanks to Freedom’s Crotch and the NRCC doubling down, no doubt. However, Anzalone also finds that, by a 2:1 margin, voters say their opinion of Bright has become more favorable over the past two weeks, with the mirror opposite true for Love.

There’s one important piece of information to note — Anzalone uses a 25% African-American sample in their polling, which they consider a “conservative” estimate of the black vote (the district’s African-American registration is around 28%). The DCCC is on the ground in AL-02 right now, paying for field staff to help get out as many votes as possible for Bright. This one could be close.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

It’s pretty clear who Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden supports in the Oregon Senate race between Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Gordon Smith. Afterall, Wyden recently cut an ad making a passionate endorsement of Merkley despite his friendship with Smith. So what does El Gordo do? He parses together some misleading clips of Wyden talking about their good working relationship and then has the gall to stamp Ron Wyden’s own signature onto his ad — as if it were an endorsement from the man himself!

Just compare the two ads:

I’ve gotta say, that may be one of the most shameless ads I’ve seen all cycle from anybody. Wyden should ask El Gordo to pull this ad off the air.

Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/5-7):

Judy Baker (D): 40

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 36

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Two recent polls — one by SurveyUSA in early September and another by Research 2000 in mid-September showed Baker trailing Luetkemeyer by 12 and 9 points, respectively, but that was before the shit really hit the economic fan, and also before the DCCC started hitting the airwaves with ads highlighting Luetkemeyer’s support for Social Security privatization (the bad kind of “SSP”). I’d wait for a few more polls before accepting these numbers as gospel, though.

Here’s a recent mailer sent out by the campaign of disingenuous, unaccomplished GOP Rep. Lee Terry:

You might recall Lee Terry’s almost-endorsement of Barack Obama earlier this year, when he said that his district was seeing a wave of “Obama-Terry voters”, whom he described as “people who want the right kind of change.”

Keep in mind that this is an R+9 district — although one that the Obama campaign is continuing to target and one where the DCCC has booked $435K worth of ad time. If Esch wins here, we’re talking about a big-time wave — it might still be unlikely, but it’s not nearly as far-fetched as it was a couple weeks ago.