Man, we’re getting close to our goal. Check it out:
Who wants to put us over $2,000?
UPDATE (James): Wow! Your generosity has been staggering. Can we hit $2,100 by dawn?
UPDATE (David): Alright, Col. Sanders – proceed to LUDICROUS SPEED! Since we blew past $2,100 in little over a day, I now declare our new goal to be $3,000. Let’s go go go!
Two more polls from the Great Orange Satan tonight. Let’s pop open the hood and have a look.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
Glenn Nye (D): 37
Thelma Drake (R-inc): 51
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±5%)
This is an R+6, military-heavy district that is often seen as a something of a bellwether for statewide contests (and according to this poll, McCain is leading Obama by 51-42), though keep in mind that even Jim Webb lost this district by a few points in 2006. This district is about 20% black, and that population is more dispersed and difficult to turn out than in other parts of the state — and, according to the Cook Political Report, African-American turnout has been in the 10-15% range of the electorate in recent election. The black turnout is pretty key to Nye’s chances, and it’s hard to gauge this poll without knowing its racial breakdown. A recent Nye internal pegged this race at five points.
And over in West Virginia… Research 2000 (10/7-8, likely voters):
Anne Barth (D): 39
Shelley Moore Capito (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±5%)
Barth has a lot of work to do, clearly, but at least the spread is a lot closer than the “2-1 Capito lead” that Stuart Rothenberg was writing about last month (presumably he was talking about Capito’s own polling).
Most interesting, though, are the Presidential numbers: McCain leads Obama by 48-41 in the 2nd District. That’s not quite the 57-42 win that Bush posted here in 2004.
SSP currently rates VA-02 as Lean Republican and WV-02 as Likely Republican.
Based on a Sept 30- Oct 1 poll by Capital Survey Research , Mike Rogers leads Josh Segall 44.9 % to 36.9%. Rogers got 212 votes while Segall got 171 votes. And 88 were still undecided.
I’ve been told from a couple of reliable folks that Segall is polling with African Americans right at 70%. If you move that number to a more realistic 95% based on past election data and the high number of African Americans that will likely vote straight ticket this cycle you get a totally different picture.
We know that 32% of the 471 sample are African Americans which equates to 151 voters.
So instead of Segall getting 106 votes from African Americans he would get 143 based on getting 95%. So let’s take 7 from Rogers (18.9%) and 30 from the undecided voters (81%) and not change any other variables. We would think it would be more likely that those African Americans coming over to Segall would be from the undecided votes rather than from the Rogers voters.
Rogers would have 205 votes 43.5%
Segall would have 208 votes 44.2%
and we would have 58 undecided voters 12.3%
Even if you move the number down to 85% to 90% of the African American Voters going Segall’s way, this race is still within just a couple of points. We could certainly expect that even at the 85-90% the sheer numbers of African American turnout could be high enough to make up the difference based on registration numbers and the Obama factor.
Why this matters?
Six years ago, Rogers only beat Joe Turnham by 3800. Remember that the DCCC pulled out with two weeks to go and Turnham went dead on the air.
If we could convince the DCCC to assist in purchasing the last two weeks worth of advertising, Segall would have a definite shot at winning this race. To go dead would probably put us in the same predicament as Turnham. The good news is that Segall is peaking at the absolute best time and you could expect that he takes a lot more White and Older voters based on the economy taking center stage.
We need your help. Please jump in and donate a couple of bucks for this race. Encourage other bloggers and pundits to take a look at turning an Alabama red seat blue.
Public Policy Polling (10/8-10, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):
Mark Udall (D): 49 (48)
Bob Schafer (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 12 (12)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
Udall has run, from my vantage point, a competent but not exactly an amazing campaign. In a year like this, and in a rapidly bluing state like Colorado, that appears to be enough. Just check out the Presidential numbers: Obama is smacking McCain by 52-42.
Udall leads by 54-35 among urban voters, 50-40 among suburban voters, and edges Schaffer by 45-40 among small town voters. Schaffer only holds a bare 45-43 advantage in the rural vote. Even in the demographic breakdowns, Udall has decisive advantages among Hispanic and African-American voters, and wins white voters by 47-43. There’s just not much that Schaffer has going for him in this poll.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
If I remember right, it’s been a few of months since we had a House Cattle call, although we have Senate ones monthly. A lot has happened in those few months. I think our chances in several strongly Republican Districts have greatly improved, and we’ve put away some districts that were competitive a few months ago. Most of the Pundits are predicting gains greater than 20 seats, with 30 or more seats likely. McCain is losing ground by the day, and Republicans nation wide are hemorrhaging support thanks to the Economic crisis. Democratic incumbents are in increasingly less danger, with only approximately 5 seats in serious risk. Needless to say, this one is looking like a wave election possibly better than 2006. Go as far down as you want, as we have no shortage of targets.
Daily Kos released a pair of new House polls last night and today. Let’s take a look.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):
Bob Lord (D): 39
John Shadegg (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
The last poll we saw of this race, from Anzalone Liszt showed a dead heat. R2K didn’t include the Libertarian candidate in its polling (an oversight), which Markos believes would have shaved off a point or two from Shadegg. In any case, Shadegg is under 50 and is currently weathering a series of big hits from both Lord and the DCCC (who have spent nearly $700K on this race so far). A recent Roll Call article takes note of some displeasure with Shadegg’s campaign by DC GOP insiders, so you have to wonder what their own internal polling is telling them.
But this is even more remarkable — check out the Presidential numbers in this district. McCain is only beating Obama by 50-39 here. Put that in perspective: This is an R+6.5 district that Bush carried by 58-41 in 2004. Despite having a homestate advantage, and Obama largely not contesting the state (at least, in terms of serious media buys), McCain is only hitting 50%. That’s pretty stunning, and possibly an ominous sign for Republicans like Tim Bee and Dave Schweikert, who were counting on some McNap coattails to carry them over the line in the 8th and 5th Districts.
And now for Nebraska. Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):
Jim Esch (D): 39
Lee Terry (R-inc): 49
(MoE: ±5%)
Nothing especially strong for Lee Terry there (especially when you consider that this is an R+9 district), but also one that doesn’t seem to have budged much from Terry’s 55-45 win over Esch in 2006. In Esch’s favor, he’s getting the kind of help that he lacked last time: Obama has opened his third field office in Omaha just recently, and the DCCC has reserved $435K worth of ad time against Terry (although no ads have been aired yet, to the best of my knowledge). It would be nice if we could check in with this race with a few more polls in a couple of weeks.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-40 in this district.
James wrote yesterday about the shameless bullshit GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is pulling on the airwaves. Oregon’s other senator, Dem Ron Wyden, endorsed Jeff Merkley and appears in a new ad with him. Yet Smith cut his own ad which makes it appear as though Wyden is endorsing El Gordo. Like I said, a load of crap.
Fortunately, Wyden isn’t having any of this:
Wyden, however, doesn’t find much humor in the ad. He’s particularly upset that the ad includes his signature at the end, superimposed on a photo of the two senators, and he’s asking the Smith campaign to pull the ad.
“I guess we should be flattered by all the attention,” said Josh Kardon, Wyden’s chief of staff in Oregon. “But the unauthorized use of Ron’s signature is no laughing matter. Its use will confuse voters about who Ron supports in this race, and the ad should come down.”
Another embarrassment for Smith. He previously tried to claim a faux-endorsement from Obama, which lead to an unequivocal statement from the Obama camp that our nominee supports Jeff Merkley. Nice try, bub.
Six years ago, as the nascent liberal blogosphere first began to coalesce, one particular incident quickly became seared in our minds, forever to be a rallying cry – something we would never let go unanswered again. I’m speaking of Saxby Chambliss’s unthinkably odious ad in which he slurred Max Cleland by pairing the triple-amputee war hero with images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein:
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I know you haven’t forgotten this grave offense – none of us have. That’s why I’ve put our goal thermometer right along side that ad, so that we can finally exact payback for this most outrageous and underhanded attack.
I’ll be honest: I didn’t think we’d see this day so soon. Georgia hasn’t exactly been fertile territory for Democrats in some time, and I figured Saxby would cruise to re-election. Fortunately, the political environment and the quality of our nominee have changed things dramatically. We need to seize this opportunity, to honor Max Cleland, to show that we won’t get bullied, and to send a great populist progressive like Jim Martin to the Senate.
We’ve already made awesome progress toward our goal in just twenty-four hours. But time is running very, very short. Barely more than three weeks remain until election day. Please give now.
Two polls confirm it — Democrat Tom Perriello is making some big progress in his race against crumb-bum Republican Rep. Virgil Goode.
Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens)
Tom Perriello (D): 40 (31)
Virgil Goode (R-inc): 48 (56)
Undecided: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
On Wednesday, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Perriello trailing Goode by 55-42, a steep decline from Goode’s 64-30 lead in August. This is a tough, culturally conservative R+5.6 district that includes the very liberal pocket of Charlottesville. It’s unlikely that Perriello will find a great deal of Obama coattails here, but then again, SUSA’s latest polling had Obama ahead or tied in all four major regions of Virginia (admittedly, this doesn’t mean that Obama is ahead in the 5th).
Perriello is running a solid, smart campaign so far by all indications. I’m not sure if it will be enough to break Goode’s grip on the district, but this is the stiffest fight that the GOP has had here in quite some time.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Tom Perriello is one of my favorite congressional candidates in the country. He’s got a amazing background, he’s helped take down Liberian dictator Charles Taylor, was a major player in the peace and reconciliation process in Sierra Leone, helped found the online grassroots people-powered humanitarian movement Avaaz.org and many other things. Now he’s running against Virgil Goode, a proud bigot and one of the worst if not the worst member of Congress. And he’s been running some great ads created by the best ad firm in the country (IMO) Eichenbaum & Associates
Here is another great ad he’s running
And what’s Goode running ads about? That Tom used to have a scary beard.
It’s fear mongering, plain and simple. But that’s what Virgil Goode has built a career off.
It’s a tough district to win but Virgina Gov. Tim Kaine won it in 2005 and I think Tom can win it too. The latest poll showed him down 13 which may sound like a lot but it’s a 20 point gain since he started running ads.
With your help he can close that gap and win. Donate to him today.
Originally posted at The Populista Report