OK-Sen:
Andrew Rice (D): >$900K raised (via e-mail)
MI-09:
Gary Peters (D): >$650K raised (since mid-July)
MN-03:
Ashwin Madia (D): $998K raised
NC-08:
Robin Hayes (R-inc): >$670K raised, $1.1M CoH (via press release)
TX-07:
Joe Culberson (R-inc): $399K raised; $740K CoH
(Weak.)
Previous threads:
Research 2000 for WISHTV (9/29-10/3, likely voters):
Baron Hill (D-inc): 49
Mike Sodrel (R): 37
(MoE: ±5%)
When pressed for comment, the Mike Sodrel campaign refused to believe the veracity of any poll whose respondents were not hooked up to lie detectors.
Crosstabs available here.
The polls don’t stop, and neither do we.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
Michael Skelly (D): 40
John Culberson (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
These are pretty remarkable numbers for a Democrat in this R+16 district (the 36th-most Republican district in the nation) that delivered 38 and 28-point wins to Bush in 2000 and 2004, respectively. They’re also pretty similar to a GQR poll from last month that showed Skelly trailing Culberson by 37-44.
Skelly has run a flawless campaign, and these numbers prove not only that he’s gaining traction, but that the district is continuing to trend just a bit bluer. Check out the Presidential numbers: McCain is only leading Obama by 51-39 in this affluent suburban Houston district. That’s a far, far cry from the kinds of margins that Bush racked up here over his past two elections.
The first sign of vulnerability for Ric Keller was in 2006 when he captured 53% of the vote in a contest featuring an opponent whom did not receive DCCC funding. The second sign of vulnerability occurred in August of this year when Keller barely survived a primary challenge against a poorly financed, yet marginally known opponent, mostly due to Keller’s own personal attacks against Todd Long. In fact, had Keller ignored Long, who posed very little threat until Keller sparked the fire, then he most likely would have performed better.
However, the primary brought some discouraging news for Keller: his base in Lake County had largely deserted him. Long had defeated Keller in Eustis, a conservative city favorable to Republicans. The most Republican precinct in Lake County, precinct 32 in Eustis, favored Long over Keller. The narrow victory Keller attained was mostly attributed to him outperfoming Long in Marion County, while not losing Orange County, where most of the eighth district voters are situated.
Keller now faces his third challenge: the narrowing gap between Republicans and Democrats. Outlined below are preliminary voter registration totals for the areas which are situated in the 8th Congressional District:
Lake County
R – 25,505
D – 18,161
O – 9,687
Total Registered: 53,353
Marion County
D – 21,299
R – 21,902
O – 9,227
Total Registered: 52,428
Orange County
D – 117,919
R – 110,284
O – 75,178
Total Registered: 303,381
Osceola County
D – 1,186
R – 2,356
O – 1,384
Total Registered: 4,926
Overall Eighth District
D – 158,565
R – 160,047
O – 95,189
Total Registered: 414,088
The registration gap between Republicans and Democrats has been closing gradually here. The separation is less than 1,500 voters, which has yet to include final book closings, since many registrations, most favorable to Democrats, continue to be processed. This makes the 8th Congressional District one of the toss-up districts this year. Even though the DCCC did not prefer Alan Grayson, nor have they spent here on his behalf, the election here is clearly against Ric Keller. In order to prevail here Keller must achieve three tasks:
– Win overwhelmingly in Lake County, especially Eustis, the conservative base of the district.
– Win in Ocala, which is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
– Win over independents, women, and Hispanics in Orange County. Women comprise 54% of the electorate in Orange County.
The final task will prove to be the most difficult for Keller. The areas of Orange County where Keller must win are Azalea Park and Union Park, locations which are largely Hispanic and Democratic, yet also have a large number of Hispanics registered as independents. The four precincts countywide with the largest voter registration separation between independent male and female voters are all situated in Azalea Park and Union Park. Below are the four districts and their demographic breakdown based on overall registered voters:
Precinct 316 – Azalea Park. 55% female, 46% Hispanic, 8% African-American, and 1% Asian.
Precinct 323 – Azalea Park/Union Park. 52% female, 45% Hispanic, 7% African-American, and 2% Asian.
Precinct 454 – Union Park. 51% female, 30% Hispanic, 11% African-American, and 5% Asian.
Precinct 546 – Union Park. 48% female, 24% Hispanic, 10% African-American, and 4% Asian.
**The last two are situated in neighboring “corrupt” Feeney territory.
In 2006, all successful statewide Republican candidates won in Precincts 316 and 323, except Harris and Keller. Alex Sink and Charlie Stuart were the only Democrats to win here. While some could say that Harris was a drag on Keller, due to their placement on the ballot, the likelihood is that Keller has been losing independents for some time. In fact, ultra-conservative Bill McCollum, Keller’s own predecessor performed rather well in the two precincts which Keller lost.
Recently Keller has gone on the defensive, calling Grayson an ultra-liberal aligned with Code Pink, a woman’s organization protesting against the war. Not to be outdone, Grayson has done what Long was encouraged to do, bring up Keller’s extra-maritial affair and the divorce that followed. Keller’s attack is clearly designed to win back the base which he lost in the primary and in 2006, yet Grayson’s attack is designed to keep Keller’s base at bay, questioning his family value principles, while also seeking to win over independent women voters. While nasty and unpredictable, due to the backlash which Keller suffered in the primary, Grayson appears to have the more effective strategy at the moment.
In the final analysis the race will be decided by independent women voters and Hispanics. Traditionally, Hispanics, mostly of Puerto Rican origin, have not turned out to vote. However, this year may prove to be the exception. If Hispanics turn out this year, as appears likely, and independent women voters continue turning against Keller, then a pink slip is coming Keller’s direction.
I predict that it has already been mailed. As for Feeney, his may have already been delivered. Expect the NRCC to stop spending on his behalf in the coming week.
Garin Hart Yang for Bruce Lunsford (10/6-7, likely voters):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 45
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Could this be the mystery poll that the Rothenberg Political Report teased us with last week? Maybe. (Update: Nope, this poll was conducted just a few days ago.)
In any case, even McConnell’s own pollster agrees — this race is getting closer.
The full polling memo, which includes some good news about the undecided vote, is available below the fold.
We wrote earlier about the NRCC canceling ad buys in NV-03 and NM-01, but a knowledgeable friend of SSP writes in with a few more details on the NRCC’s retreat:
FL-16 – NRCC – TV – cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in West Palm and Ft. Myers
ID-01 – NRCC – TV – Spokane – cancels weeks of 10/7 and 10/14
KS-02 – NRCC – TV – Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in all markets
LA-06 – NRCC-TV- Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in Baton Rouge
MN-03 – NRCC- TV – cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Minneapolis
NV-03 – NRCC – TV – broadcast and cable flights 10/14-10/20 cancelled
TX-22 – NRCC – TV – Cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Houston.
Voter/Consumer Research for Mitch McConnell (10/5-8, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 38 (35)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47 (52)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
The biggest take-away here is simple: Mitch is below 50% in his own polling for the first time. Other polling in recent weeks, from both Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA have shown a dead heat, while Rasmussen is a bit closer to McConnell’s numbers.
Lunsford’s favorable/unfavorable spread is 31-40, which is not great for us, but this might be the kind of year where voters are a bit more willing to accept his flaws in order to push change in a time of crisis.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
UPDATE: Har-har.
Credit where credit is due: Stu Rothenberg has a pretty sober assessment of the GOP’s downballot chances this year in his latest column. Here’s one nugget, though, that is worth teasing out:
The NRCC has scaled back advertising in Nevada’s 3rd district and New Mexico’s 1st district, and the campaign committee is going to have to make key decisions over the next few weeks about which candidates it will try to save and which it will allow to drown slowly.
The Martin Heinrich campaign has more details on the NRCC’s retreat in NM-01:
Back in August, the NRCC reserved $731,690 in advertising on behalf of Darren White from October 14 to November 4th [NRCC to spend $731k on TV ads in 1st District Race, 8/27/08]. The NRCC has now slashed two weeks out of the three-week buy, cutting an estimated $500,000 in financial support from the White campaign.
You’ll recall that White, the sheriff of Bernalillo County, was one of the NRCC’s most-prized recruits earlier this cycle after Heather Wilson decided to run for Senate. It seems that the NRCC is feeling less and less confident about his abilities to retain this seat, and it also appears that Jon Porter may have to fend for himself. In a normal year with an adequately-funded NRCC, neither of these guys would have been abandoned, and both of them could have held on — but this isn’t a normal year by any means.
So far, the NRCC has been picking a limited set of targets: AL-02, MI-07, NJ-03, OH-01, OH-15, PA-03, and WI-08. They will undoubtedly add a few more districts to the heap and circle the wagon, but which ones will they be? The Missouri races? ID-01? WY-AL?
Well, if there was any doubt about the competitiveness of Democrat Jim Esch’s race against unaccomplished GOP Rep. Lee Terry in Omaha, Nebraska, it should now be erased:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made a six-figure investment in television ads to air on Omaha stations between now and Election Day.
The ads are part of a campaign to boost Jim Esch in his race against incumbent Lee Terry.
“They wouldn’t be doing this is they didn’t think this was a race that could be won,” said Esch.
Public documents indicate that the DCCC bought nearly $200,000 in television ads. Committee records last month indicated that the party recognizes Esch as a strong candidate to take away a Republican seat.
Remember, this is an R+9 seat that Bush carried carried comfortably twice. However, the GOP’s grip on the seat showed signs of loosening in 2006, when Terry won by a surprising 55-45 margin against the underfunded Esch. With the Obama campaign on the ground in Omaha and targeting its lone electoral vote and the DCCC now on the air, Esch no longer has to go it alone. This is a pretty big deal.
The DCCC’s Stakeholder blog has more.
More bad news for GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl: a third poll released this week is showing him trailing Democrat Eric Massa.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
Eric Massa (D): 49
Randy Kuhl (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±5%)
Boom! Just in case you need to play catch-up, on Monday, we saw other early October polls from SurveyUSA and the Benenson Strategy Group, both showing Massa ahead by 7 and 5 points, respectively.
Economic woes have hit New York’s 29th District especially hard in recent years, and those hard times seem to be enough to overcome the district’s decidedly Republican tilt (Bush won here by 56-42 in 2004). Just check out the Presidential numbers: Obama has a 48-45 lead over McCain in this Appalachian district. Don’t believe it? SurveyUSA had almost the exact same result on Monday night, with Obama edging McCain by 49-47 here.
Things are looking dicey for Shotgun Randy. Just check out his favorable rating: 33-44. Brutal. Massa, on the other hand, is sitting at 45-27.