Month: October 2008

Rasmussen (10/2, likely voters, 9/10 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 48 (46)

Dino Rossi (GOP Party): 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Last month’s Rasmussen poll showing Republican challenger Dino Rossi suddenly shooting up to a 6-point lead (from the within-a-point-or-two stasis that had reigned almost all year) probably resulted in a lot of pants-soiling among Washington Dems. Well, I have no idea if that poll was a fleeting snapshot of Palinmania at its most fervent, or just one of Rasmussen’s occasional weird gyrations, but everything seems to have returned back to normal in the Washington gubernatorial race. (FWIW, the last Rasmussen presidential poll had Obama up by only 2, while today’s sample has him up 53-43.)

This poll was taken shortly after Builder-gate broke into the public consciousness, so it appears that Builder-gate has yet had little if any impact on the race, despite hopes that it might give Rossi a black eye… not that I would expect it to, as it turns on arcane aspects of state campaign finance law rather than anything sexy (or easily comprehensible). And while it does serve to make Rossi look a little sleazier, there are (as the latest poll shows) very few undecideds left to be swayed by a little more sleaze.

However, as of a few hours ago, Washington’s Republican Attorney General, Rob McKenna, just filed suit against Washington’s Republican Party for its involvement in the matter. So this will linger around on local newspapers’ front pages for a little while longer…

Here’s a relatively short introduction to Builder-Gate, courtesy of Goldy at Horse’s Ass, who, as he often does, beat the Seattle Times and Seattle Post-Intelligencer in breaking the story:

Rossi was an active participant in the [Building Industry Association of Washington]’s illegal fundraising scheme… a scheme for which the [Public Disclosure Commission] found the BIAW guilty of multiple “egregious” violations of Washington’s campaign finance and disclosure laws, and which is now being prosecuted by the Attorney General’s office.

But it is important to note that even if the BIAW had scrupulously conducted its campaign within the letter of the law (and it didn’t), Rossi would still be guilty of a major violation of our campaign statutes, for it is absolutely positively 100% illegal (not to mention grossly unethical) for a candidate to coordinate activities with an independent expenditure campaign.

Capital Survey Research Center (9/30-10/1, likely voters, 8/18 in parens):

Josh Segall (D): 36 (33)

Mike Rogers (R-inc): 45 (54)

Other/Undecided: 19 (14)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Interesting numbers — with so much economic insecurity, we could be seeing the GOP taking a big hit everywhere, even in the Deep South. This district was drawn by the Alabama legislature to elect a Democrat, but after a close loss in 2002, no one has been able to wage a viable campaign against Rogers. Attorney Josh Segall aims to change that — and his campaign merits watching.

Full poll results and sample details below the fold.

The original economic rescue package that went down to narrow defeat on Monday was notable for the strange coalition that formed. Rather than a clear left/right split, the opposition was an interesting grouping of vulnerable incumbents and representatives from districts geographically or economically far removed from Wall Street, from across the ideological spectrum.

Today’s second-try vote that passed the bailout 263 to 171 (with Dems splitting 172-63 and the GOP splitting 91-108) necessarily involved a lot of people flipping from nay to yea. As with the original vote, the flippers weren’t heavily concentrated at one point on the ideological spectrum, but scattered throughout. 33 Dems switched from nay to yea, as did 25 Republicans. (Only one representative, Jim McDermott, switched from yea to nay. And one GOP representative, Jerry Weller, switched to no vote to yea.)

If there was one place the switches came from, though, it was the Progressive Caucus, which was originally 35-32 in favor of the bailout. Today, 16 caucus members flipped to yea, making it 50-17 (accounting for McDermott going the other way). The Progressive Caucus shares many members with the Congressional Black Caucus, which also turned direction (reportedly because of heavy lobbying by Obama himself, based on his promises to revisit the issue in January), with 13 flippers, changing its numbers from 18-19 to 31-6. Likewise, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus also turned, with 5 flippers, going from 8-13 to 13-8.

As was predicted, there was little movement among the Blue Dogs, who reportedly weren’t happy with the additional pile of debt thrown in as a ‘sweetener.’ Only 5 Blue Dogs flipped, as they went from 31-22 to 36-17. Likewise, 8 New Dems flipped (some of whom are also Blue Dog members), going from 38-21 to 46-13.

On the Republican side, the ultra-right Republican Study Committee still remained the main bastion of resistance. Of the 205 25 GOPers who flipped, only 11 came from the RSC, as the RSC went from 26-81 to 37-70. On the other hand, the country-clubby Main Street Partnership moved to the most pro-bailout caucus in the whole House, with 7 flippers, taking it from 21-15 to 29-8 (including the addition of Weller).

More over the flip…

Few vulnerable representatives wound up changing their votes, as they (especially on the GOP side) continued to hold out in the face of perceived public opposition. On the Democratic side, only 3 vulnerable members flipped (Giffords, Mitchell, and Yarmuth, all Lean D). On the Republican side, 9 vulnerable members flipped (Knollenberg at Tossup, Kuhl and Schmidt at Lean R, and Boustany, Buchanan, Dent, Ros-Lehtinen, Shadegg, and Terry at Likely R).

(I say ‘perceived’ because a new Democracy Corps memo, based on polling of competitive GOP-held districts taken after the first bill’s failure (and subsequent market crash), suggests that the bailout isn’t as much of a political loser as the “100 to 1 calls against” anecdotes first suggested. This, of course, assumes that the specifics of the bill are properly explained, rather than simply rammed down everyone’s throats, as happened last week.)

By a 47 to 42 plurality, voters say they want their representative in Congress to support the 700 billion dollar plan to purchase troubled mortgage assets as modified by Congress to include limits on CEO pay and repay taxpayers in the long-term…. The winning Democratic message notes the need to turn the economy around and protect the middle class but mainly focuses on the improvements made by Congress to the Bush administration’s original bill, including limits on CEO compensation and protections to ensure taxpayers are paid back when the economy rebounds.

Two One retiree also flipped, remarkable since there were so few retirees voting nay in the first place: Ray LaHood and Jim Ramstad.

One other thing I would have expected was more representatives from what we’ll call ‘investor-class’ districts flipping from nay to yea (in the face of angry constituents upset about their 401(k)s rather than the cost of the bailout). However, they didn’t seem to flip at any greater rate than the rest of the House (although that may be because representatives from these districts were pretty heavily in favor of the package to begin with). Of districts where the 2007 median household income was over $65,000 (approximately the top 20% among districts), there were only 9 flippers: four from the Dems (Donna Edwards, Hirono, Tierney, and Woolsey), and five from the GOP (Biggert, Frelinghuysen, Gerlach, Knollenberg, and Ramstad).

Tragedy strikes Tribeca:

Citing a “crushing” economy and spiking prices for food and utilities, GOP congressional candidate Robert Straniere has shuttered his New York Hot Dog Company in Tribeca.

“The business cannot be operated in this economy,” Straniere said. “There are no bailouts for small businesses.”

But that’s not all:

There is one roadblock to a possible reopening of the eatery: Straniere is being sued by Long Island resident Fred Catapano, a founding shareholder of the company, who claims that he wasn’t given the full percentage of shares to which he was entitled.

The lawsuit, filed in Manhattan Supreme Court in August, also claims that Straniere improperly removed Catapano from leadership positions in the company.

Straniere dismissed the lawsuit as “politically motivated in an attempt to squeeze us. Look at the timing of it.”

Anyone want to guess what share of the vote Straniere takes in November?

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Harry Teague (D): 47

Ed Tinsley (R): 43

(MoE: ±5%)

In the wake of the recently-released (though slightly stale) Dem internal from New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District that gave Harry Teague a five-point lead, here’s a new poll from R2K that almost matches that.

The poll gives McCain a 49-42 edge over Obama, but this is by far New Mexico’s most Republican-leaning district (at R+5.7), one where Kerry lost 58-42. Teague (an oilman and a County Commissioner in dark-red Lea County in New Mexico’s oil patch) maintains a conservative profile, which seems apt for this district, as seen by how far he’s beating the district’s lean.

Swing State Project upgraded this race to Tossup yesterday.

Update (James): Also of note is Teague is just plain better liked than Tinsley: his favorables are at 46-33, a much better spread than Tinsley has (40-37).

Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/13 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (51)

Pat McCrory (R): 50 (45)

Michael Munger (L): 2

(MoE: ±4%)

Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 33 (35)

Pat McCrory (R): 37 (37)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Two new polls give more bad news for Bev Perdue, who seems to be slipping in her quest to hold the open North Carolina gubernatorial seat for the Dems. Rasmussen shows a big reversal from mid-August, when Perdue seemed to be at her peak. Elon University also shows Perdue losing a little ground from several weeks ago.

Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 37 (35)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35 (35)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

On the plus side, the same Elon University poll sees Kay Hagan gaining ground in the Senate race. (Bear in mind that the Elon poll is rife with methodological problems: it’s a sample only of residents, and respondents are only asked for each race whether they’re supporting the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Nevertheless, their margins seem generally in line with numbers we’re seeing elsewhere, with the presidential race in NC tied at 39-39.)

The Mellman Group for the DSCC (9/29-10/1, likely voters):

Al Franken (D): 38

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36

Dean Barkley (IP): 12

(MoE: ±4%)

This poll comes on the heels of a suspect SUSA poll that showed McCain leading by one point and Coleman by 10. Mellman finds that Norm’s job approval is still on the rocks, with only 32% approving and 56% disapproving of his performance in DC.

The poll also confirms that Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley is attracting a significant share of the vote, making this race a tough one to handicap.

There’s been some stress lately concerning the New Hampshire Senate race based on this Rasmussen poll from a week ago showing Sununu pulling ahead of Shaheen by seven points. Many of us were skeptical of such a dramatic Bununu surge, but I think now we can be assured that the poll was an outlier.

Here’s Rasmussen‘s latest (9/30, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (45)

John Sununu (R-inc): 45 (52)

(MoE: ±4%)

With Rasmussen polls, we occasionally see some pretty strange gyrations. While the race may still be close, I think it’s clear that last week’s poll was nothing but a “Rasmussen bounce” for Sununu.

Earlier in the day, the Swing State Project changed its ratings for four House races. Here’s a round-up of what we did:

MI-09 (Knollenberg): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg identified himself as an early target of the 2008 election cycle after his surprisingly tepid 2006 electoral performance against underfunded Democrat Nancy Skinner. He won that race by a mere 52-46 margin, but now faces a stiffer challenge from former state Senator Gary Peters.

A number of factors have contributed to our decision to shift this race over to the Tossup column, most notably being the district’s Democratic trend. Al Gore lost the 9th District by 47-51 in 2000, but John Kerry made it a two-point race four years later, and it looks like this trend is set to continue at the Presidential level. Public and internal polls by EPIC-MRA and the DCCC have both shown Barack Obama leading John McCain in this district by varying margins, and private polling confirms this. Furthermore, both of the released polls of this race show a tight contest, with Knollenberg hovering around the 40% mark. That’s a precarious position for any incumbent to occupy.

This race was already a Tossup before the news that John McCain will be pulling out of Michigan, but that just makes the race even tougher for Knollenberg.

NC-08 (Hayes): Lean Republican to Tossup

We’ve been admittedly slow to come around to this race, but that’s only because we’ve been less than impressed with Kissell’s extremely sluggish fundraising efforts and questionable spending. But the DCCC has been spending heavily to make up Kissell’s gaps (including, we should note, recent expenditures on field organizing). Moreover, recent polling shows Dems surging in the Presidential and Senate races throughout the state, with noticeable results in the 8th CD — an R+3 district with a sizable African-American population and plenty of down-home Democrats.

Recent internal polling from the DCCC shows Kissell with an 11-point lead, and while that may be a temporary financial crisis bounce (especially with the banking and finance industry being so prominent in Charlotte), Hayes is plummeting in his own internals, as well. We could see Hayes ending up on the wrong side of the Democratic tide in North Carolina.

NM-02 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

It’s beginning to become very clear why the NRCC was so desperate to keep Steve Pearce out of the Senate race in New Mexico — they knew that they could face some major problems in an open seat race in Southern New Mexico, even though the district has an R+6 tilt.

Democrats nominated Harry Teague, a former Lea County commissioner and oilman, who cuts a conservative profile that appeals to many of the district’s conservative Democrats. The Republican nominee, Ed Tinsley, is saddled by his past as a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association — a record that the DCCC is beginning to attack in recent TV ads. Teague, who like Tinsley is partially self-funding his race, has been working the retail side of the race heavily, visiting many of the district’s far-flung towns and scoring impressive reviews in such encounters. A recent Teague internal poll shows the Democrat leading this contest by five points, and an upcoming Research 2000 poll will apparently show a similar margin. This race is wide open for the taking.

PA-03 (English): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the top tier races this year, this contest appears to be the most unusual. Democrats originally recruited Erie city Councilman Kyle Foust to take on GOP Rep. Phil “the Hutt” English last year. However, when his candidacy quickly fizzled out in mediocrity, the race didn’t look so promising. But Erie Arboretum director and businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper has come on strong — or, perhaps we should say, English has been fading fast. A Dahlkemper internal poll from July indicated that the race was a dead heat, and the NRCC’s decision to reserve $820,000 in ad time to protect him was the first big tell here. The next indication of this race’s competitiveness was the DCCC’s decision to go up on the air against English in early September, followed by English’s very public displays of flop sweat. Indeed, the NRCC has followed through and earlier this week spent its first paid media dollars of the fall in this race.

With a recent SUSA poll giving Dahlkemper a four-point lead over English, there is no longer any doubt. This race is a tossup.