I just received a series of email alerts from the Cook Political Report. They read as follows.
KY-SEN: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
PA-03: Lean Republican to Toss-up
NM-02: Lean Republican to Toss-up
MI-09: Lean Republican to Toss-up
KY-02: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
FL-21: Lean Republican to Toss-up
Seems to me that the biggest news in this batch come from KY-SEN, NM-02 and MI-09.
Bonus: Cook moved FL-PRES, NC-PRES and IN-PRES from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
Ciruli Associates for Economic Development Council of Colorado (9/19-23, registered voters, 9/12-15/2007):
Mark Udall (D): 45 (36)
Bob Schaffer (R): 38 (35)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Recently a lot of the polls of the Colorado Senate race have seemed either suspiciously close or suspiciously far apart, but here’s one that’s close to the mark if you average them all out. The same sample shows a closer presidential race, with Obama leading only 44-43.
The sponsor’s name might sound like this is a Republican internal poll, but this is apparently a nonpartisan poll conducted once a year by local pollsters Ciruli Associates.
Harstad Strategic Research for Walt Minnick (9/25-28, registered voters, 9/9-11 in parens):
Walt Minnick (D): 44 (43)
Bill Sali (R-inc): 38 (38)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
This is the second internal poll released from Minnick’s campaign this month showing Sali trailing. (The first poll can be found here.)
Sali continues to post atrocious job approval and popularity numbers; his favorable/unfavorable score is 38-41, and his job approval is even worse: 29-50. If Sali were occupying a more marginal district, he’d be instant road kill. Of course, Sali could never get elected dogcatcher in a competitive district. As it stands, though, he’s in trouble even in this deep red seat.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Research 2000 for South Bend Tribune/WSBT (9/28-30, likely voters):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 46
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
The Indiana governor’s race was starting to slide off the map, with GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels leading Democratic ex-Representative Jill Long Thompson by double digits in most polls over the last few months (with the exception of a 4-point spread in a Selzer poll several weeks ago). However, R2K’s first poll of this race shows a dead heat.
Is it an outlier? Is it another indication that the economic chaos is lifting every Democratic boat, even JLT’s leaky dinghy? Or is it a sign that Obama’s uncontested ground game in Indiana is not only turning Indiana into a swing state but generating strong coattails (the same sample gives McCain a lead of only 46-45)?
Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/29 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 42 (42)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 51 (52)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Unlike recent Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA polls that have shown a small McConnell lead, Rasmussen has the incumbent retaining a wider — but not overwhelming — advantage. Still, this race could bust wide open, and I hope we’ll see many more polls in the remaining weeks.
Momentum Analysis for Vic Wulsin (9/29-30, likely voters, June in parens):
Vic Wulsin (D): 36 (33)
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 37 (41)
David Krikorian (I): 11 (6)
Undecided: 16 (19)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Looks like the GOP is hitting an economic road-bump everywhere. This is still gonna be a tough race, but damn, Schmidt always makes things interesting.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
UPDATE: Schmidt has released her own poll by the Tarrance Group from early September showing her up on Wulsin by a 52-36 margin, with another 6% going to Krikorian.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (9/28-29, likely voters):
Larry Kissell (D): 54
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 43
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Those are amazing numbers, and they also predict a Democratic rout at the top of the ticket: Obama leads McCain by 54-42 in the 8th District (a district that Bush won by 54-45 in 2004), and Kay Hagan leading Dole by 55-41.
This poll may be influenced by the recent financial crisis — banking and finance is a major employer in Charlotte — which has affected the area in a big way with Citi’s acquisition of NC-based Wachovia. So we might be seeing a bounce that could fade to some degree — but it does give you a good indication of the GOP on the brink of a meltdown here.
In a new poll (h/t to Betsy at BlueNC Larry Kissell has a big lead on Robin Hayes.
As many of you likely know, Larry lost by just over 300 votes out of 120,000 cast in 2006. He is back in force this time, with a lot of help on the air from the DCCC, and with a greatly expanded ground game. What has that lead to?
Robin Hayes (R-inc) 43%
Larry Kissell (D) 54%
This is a Greenberg, Quinlan poll for the DCCC, 4.9% MOE. The poll also showed Obama up 12 and Hagan up 14. Most of the big movement to Larry is due to the fact that a majority of voters in this district know that Larry will do a better job on the economy, and will do more to protect workers.
A federal judge is considering dismissing Sen. Ted Stevens’s criminal case after government prosecutors violated a court order to turn over critical evidence to the Alaska Republican’s defense team.
In a stunning beginning to a critical day in the trial, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan erupted at the Justice Department for waiting until just before midnight Wednesday to disclose FBI notes discussing Stevens’s intent to pay for gifts that are at the center of his criminal trial.
“Why shouldn’t I dismiss the indictment?” Sullivan fumed. “It strikes me this is probably intentional.”
The judge said the two parties need to submit briefs to the court Thursday afternoon, and scheduled a 4:30 p.m. hearing to determine whether to dismiss the case.
But there is some hope:
But Sullivan seemed to be leaning more towards imposing “lesser sanctions,” like delaying the trial until the government provides all redacted FBI notes to the defense.
Let’s hope so. The Feds may have crumbed the play here, which would be very bad news for Mark Begich.