Month: October 2008

The trickle begins.

CT-04:

     Jim Himes (D): >$800K raised

TX-10:

     Larry Joe Doherty (D): ~$300K raised

WV-02:

     Anne Barth (D): >$330K raised

Very impressive numbers for Himes. Have you seen any other third quarter fundraising numbers from your area?

SurveyUSA (9/29-30, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Tom Udall (D): 58 (56)

Steve Pearce (R): 39 (41)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

More horribly fugly numbers for Pearce, coming off a recent PPP poll that had Udall up by a 57-37 margin. Steve Pearce doesn’t just need a miracle here — he needs a series of them.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

Bonus finding: The same poll has Obama leading McCain by a 52-44 margin. This state is looking good.

It appears that CQ is in the midst of changing two Michigan races from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

I did my daiy check on the CQPolitics.com Election Map, and noticed the number of House races in No Clear Favorite went to 17 from 15. I went to the map and now MI-07 (Mark Schauer against Rep. Walberg) and MI-09 (Gary Peters against Rep. Knollenberg) are “yellow” and in a no clear favorite status.

I expect a story to be submitted by CQ and provide the details in the next day. At that time, the remaining information on the pages will get updated to reflect the “No Clear Favorite” status. Recent polling has been documented on SSP. Details of each race below the fold.

MI-07

2008: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) vs. Mark Schauer (D)

2006: Walberg (R) 50 percent, Sharon Renier (D) 46 percent

Democrats are heavily targeting the seat, arguing that Walberg, who ousted moderate incumbent Joe Schwarz in a bitter primary in 2006, is too conservative for the southern, rural district. Democratic state Sen. Mark Schauer continued to out-raise the first-term Republican congressman through the second quarter of 2008 and easily cleared the Aug. 5 primary against Renier, the organic farmer whose underfunded candidacy in 2006 highlighted Walberg’s vulnerability.

MI-09

2008: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) vs. Gary Peters (D)

2006: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 52 percent, Nancy Skinner (D) 46 percent

Democratic gains in the Oakland County district combined with Knollenberg’s record low win in 2006 have made Michigan’s 9th Congressional District a top Democratic target and former state Sen. Gary Peters a top candidate for the party in 2008. Knollenberg has eight terms under his belt and has gotten an early start in campaigning for re-election. He raised $1.8 million as of March 31, but Peters is receiving support from the Democratic House campaign committee and had raised three-quarters of a million dollars by the same date.

Here’s a race that you don’t see polled every day.

Anzalone-Liszt for Bob Hackworth (9/7-11, likely voters):

Bob Hackworth (D): 33

C.W. “Bill” Young (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4.4%)

This is a D+1 district that Young has held since 1971. Despite occupying a district that voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Al Gore by a slim margin in 2000, Young has regularly won re-election by overwhelming margins. In fact, he weakest showing in his long career was in 1992, when he scored “only” 57% of the vote (the lone time his winning percentage slipped below 60). If this poll is any indication, it looks like he may slip below 60 once again.

Up the ballot, Obama held a 46-40 lead over McCain in this district when this poll was conducted (which, I’ll note, was well before the recent Florida surge for Obama). On the generic ballot, Dems hold a 42-34 lead over the GOP, and the undecideds in the congressional contest tilt Dem in their general preferences. While it looks like the general Democratic performance is shaping up to be stronger here than in 2004 (when Kerry lost the district by 49-51), it would probably require a big, big wave to carry Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth over the line in this contest.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Because Hurricane Gustav pushed back Louisiana’s primaries from September to this Saturday (be sure to check SSP for all your liveblogging needs), House candidates had to file yet another pre-primary fundraising report with the FEC, this one covering the period from August 18th through September 14th. (For reference, the 7/1-8/17 pre-primary reports are available here.) Here are all the pertinent numbers:

All numbers, of course, are in thousands.

The King of Pop and Republican pretender Bill Cassidy have yet to file in LA-06, but we’ll update this post accordingly when they do.

Check out the mad money that Jim Harlan is spending in the deep-red LA-01. He’s spent $790K to date.

Here’s the ad that wins the Election in Ohio.

And it’s crucial that we get this ad on the air right now, because voters – particularly persuadable voters – just started voting yesterday in Ohio.

The ad is tough, aggressive, and hard-hitting against the GOP’s failed economic policies.  But we need your help to get it on the air by Friday.

This ad highlights the report released by the Ohio Democratic Party on Monday, Ohio’s Eight Years of Economic Pain. You can download the full report at www.ohiodems.org/economicpain

The ad’s facts are simple: Under George Bush, 1,087 factories and companies in Ohio have shut down or had mass layoffs due to the failed Republican policies in Washington – an average of nearly three per week in Ohio each and every week for the past eight years.

These shutdowns or layoffs have put more than 180,000 Ohioans out of work, devastating their families and our communities.

These aren’t just numbers – they are our neighbors.

John McCain cannot win without Ohio and the race in Ohio will come down to only a handful of votes. So we need you to be part of the momentum that puts Barack Obama over the top in Ohio on November 4.

There is no time to wait. The time for real change is now. And delivering Ohio to Obama will deliver him the Election.

Ohio and America cannot afford another four years. Please donate as much as you can afford TODAY. And then send this message to your friends.

Donate online at www.ohiodems.org/donate.

Thank you for your support!

Todd Hoffman
Director of Internet Operations
Ohio Democratic Party

Goodwin Simon Victoria Research for Larry Joe Doherty (9/28-30, likely voters, 5/27-31 in parens):

Larry Joe Doherty (D): 38 (34)

Mike McCaul (R-inc): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s a key finding that might help explain McCaul’s sagging numbers: his name recognition is only at 59%. That’s pretty bad for an incumbent running for his third term.

While this is an R+13 district, the numbers are trending in the Democratic direction (Gore won only 34% of the vote here, but Kerry kicked it up a notch to 38% in 2004). We wrote about this district as a possible pick-up opportunity way back in June 2007, so it’s nice to see Democrat Larry Joe Doherty making a race of this.

Full polling memo below the fold.

Blue Indiana has the scoop:

This morning, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named Third Congressional District Candidate Mike Montagano to its Red to Blue Program.  Candidates named to this program are considered to be amongst the top candidates across the country, having skillfully demonstrated that they stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress.

“Mike Montagano’s appointment to the Red to Blue program is further proof that Hoosiers are tired of the economic mess we’re in and are clamoring for change.  He is set to unseat Mark Souder and deliver results for the Third District,” said Dan Parker, Chair of the Indiana Democratic Party.

Souder, an anonymous GOP wingnut with a thin record of legislative accomplishments, gave the NRCC some heartburn in 2006, when he won by a 54-46 margin in this R+16 district — but only after the NRCC stepped in with several hundred thousand dollars worth in attack ads against Democratic candidate Tom Hayhurst.

Democrat Mike Montagano has been up on the airwaves in this district for the past couple of months, and internal polling from a few weeks ago showed him cutting Souder’s lead from 27 points to 13. Given the conservative tilt of this district, Montagano still faces an uphill battle against Souder, but this is a timely boost for the Democrat.

I know its important to get to 60 or higher but can we get our political agenda moved foward by getting 58?

I think so.
Going into the 111th congress with 58 isn’t half bad indeed. Sure 60 is the clincher but even with 58 we have a chance of picking off pseudo moderates like Senator Specter (who is running for re-election if at all) and Senators Snow/Collins ( Assuming Tom Allen can’t pull it off which seems to sadly be the case. Any new polling on this one?).

S-Chip

Stem Cell

Medicare

Withdrawing from Iraq.

Between a swollen deficit and expanded majorities these might be the low hanging fruit on the tree for the first year but I certainly think we can make it happen without getting to 60.
What do you think?