Month: December 2008

With election day nearing on December 6th Obama has decided to cut a radio Ad for Carmouche.

This is Barack Obama.

Together we made history, but there is still one more important election in Louisiana on Saturday, December 6th.

Democrat Paul Carmouche is running for Congress.

To change America and to get Louisiana’s economy back on track – I need leaders like Paul Carmouche working with me in Washington. Let me tell you about Paul Carmouche. Paul is an effective and fair district attorney…who stood up for the victims of violent crime…Paul supports tax relief for the middle class and will work with me to create jobs and get Louisiana’s economy moving.

Paul Carmouche is the kind of leader we need in Washington…to make a difference for the people of Northwest Louisiana.

On Saturday, December 6th please support Democrat Paul Carmouche.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

So I finally broke down and got an account to start writing here, after reading for a bit. I don’t really know why it was NOW, exactly, but here I am.

As a Coloradan, I have been surprised at the lack of serious discussion from the Obama Administration about appointing a Centennial stater to his Cabinet. After initial speculation about Ken Salazar for Interior Secretary diminished, I thought that we would be shut out of the Cabinet this administration (not that this is inherently bad, but hey, a little state pride is alright).

Recently though, chatter here in the West has surrounded John Salazar, Ken’s brother and a Representative for Colorado’s 3rd district, as a possible appointment for Secretary of Agriculture. This could accomplish several things: a second (or third, if you could Grijalva at Interior) appointment for a prominent Hispanic politician, a Westerner and Coloradan at Agriculture, and put an actual farmer as the head of the Agriculture Dept. for the first time in decades.

This diary isn’t about the merits of Salazar’s possible appointment, though, but about who might replace him in the House if it were to happen.  

CD-3 is a somewhat conservative-leaning district in Colorado: it covers 29 counties, most of them rural, and takes in the Democratic strongholds of Pueblo and Durango as well as the Republican super-stronghold of Mesa County, where Grand Junction is. Before John won the district in 2004, it was held by Republican Scott McInnis for 12 years.

Many in Colorado think that only John could hold this seat, and while there are definitely more prominent Republicans than Democrats in this district, a few people would make this a top-tier Congressional race. Here’s a quick rundown of the main contenders from each party…

The Democrats:

Former State Rep. Bernie Beuscher: Bernie was a Democrat elected from the 3rd most Republican House district in the state, HD 54, and was in line to be Speaker of the House in Colorado had he won reelection this year. He didn’t, losing in a shocker to businesswoman and Rep-elect Laura Bradford by 400 votes. He’s currently being considered for our vacant Secretary of State position, but would be the strongest candidate to win this district, hailing from (and winning twice in) its Republican stronghold of Mesa County.

State Rep. Gail Schwartz: Gail hails from the Durango/Gunnison area, and is a leader in the House on rural issues. She’s now the only Democrat in the House representing Colorado’s Western Slope outside of some of the ski towns. She’s also a rancher, which plays well in rural Colorado.

State Sen. Abel Tapia: One of the most incompetent state officials, Tapia is a member of the Joint Budget Committee and hails from Pueblo, the districts major population center of 140,000 (though it’s 200 miles from Grand Junction…this district is about the size of South Carolina). He’s also Hispanic, an important voting bloc in this district.

And the Republicans, who range from the terrible to actually quite good:

Sen. Josh Penry: A rising Republican star, he’s 32 and just elected as Minority Leader of the State Senate. He was a football star at Mesa State in Grand Junction, and hails from Mesa County. He’d have significant support from the conservative establishment, though he just supported a transportation funding initiative that lost by 20 points in the 08 elections.

Rep. Ellen Roberts: The quintessential moderate Colorado Republican, Roberts just lost a race for a House leadership position and could be looking for greener pastures. She is, however, the most liberal Republican in the State House (pro-choice, pro-civil union, and favored several revenue increases not favored by the state party). She’s compelling on the stump, and eminently likable. She’ll win this race if she can get through a primary.

Mayor Gregg Palmer: The Mayor of Grand Junction is very popular, and his pro-business bona fides would serve him well in a primary. He’s close with Penry, however, and would be unlikely to challenge him in a primary. That being said, he’s almost twice Penry’s age, and could be looking to cap off his career somewhere bigger than Grand Junction.

Those are some of the main culprits for this race that hasn’t even materialized yet. I’d give John a 50% chance of getting the Ag. appointment, and if that happens I would bet heavily on a Beuscher v. Penry race, with both national parties getting VERY engaged.

It comes as no surprise that Democrat Ethan Berkowitz is considering running for Alaska’s at-large House seat again in 2010, but his reasoning might cause a few heads to explode among the “doom and gloom” crowd: he thinks that the environment will be better for a Democrat in two years. From Roll Call (sub. not req’d):

Berkowitz said in a phone interview Tuesday night that he is “considering” a second bid against Young, who is still under federal investigation.

The Democrat said he planned to take the next few months off from the campaign trail before making a final decision, but he was quick to point out that he received more votes than any other Democrat in state history with the exception of Sen.-elect Mark Begich (D).

“It seems to me that as Alaska sees the sensible course that the Obama administration takes, some of the demonizing of Democrats will evaporate,” Berkowitz said.

Of course, the state of this seat is still very much in flux. Don Young could end up indicted, on the losing end of a primary challenge, or maybe living in a retirement complex on Coconut Road in two years.

I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder’s blog, as he’s very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.

But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but……

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I love reading nonpartisan Marc Ambinder’s blog, as he’s very often good for insider tidbits on my favorite hobby of campaigns and elections.

But one little thing he passed off as merely incidental today is anything but……

Ambinder posted a lengthy scribe today about the “meaning” of Chambliss’ victory over Jim Martin in the 2008 GA-Sen runoff.

Key text, at the very very very end:

“But… more Republican retirements are expected, including at least two in blue states (Chuck Grassley of Iowa and George Voinovich of Ohio.)”

WOAH!  Don’t you dare try to pass that off as an aside, Marc!  🙂

Seriously, I don’t think Ambinder realizes this is not any kind of “common knowledge” or “open secret” in the world of political junkies, and I speak as one in Greater D.C. even though I’m far from an “insider.”

If a bunch of insiders “expect” Voinovich and Grassley to hang it up, that’s news to me and to almost every blog I read.  In Grassley’s case, yes, the 77-year old 5-term Senator is the speculation of retirement, but naked speculation is all I’ve read or heard.  And I’d read or heard nothing about Voinovich retiring.

If these seats are open, then my home state of Iowa is a “should” win for us, with Dems having the much deeper bench these days, but Ohio could be much more competitive.  Iowa is a state where I’d love to see Vilsack vs. Latham, in which case we very easily could pick up both the Senate seat and IA-04.  Ohio is just a more ideologically conservative state than Iowa, and one that I think still has a very slight red tilt.  Ultimately recruitment in Ohio is much more wide open on both sides.

But make no mistake, in either state a retirement only helps us pick up the Senate seat.

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O Democrats)

This year has been quite transformative for The West, especially The Southwest. Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have gone from Red to Blue. Utah and Arizona don’t look quite as Red as they used to. Oh yes, and California now looks bluer than ever before.

But will this last? Will The Southwest continue to trend blue? And can Democrats continue to make gains here?

Honestly, I think so. Why? First off, demographics are shifting our way. Latinos continue to grow in population and political influence. “Creative Class” professionals continue to breathe new life into the region’s urban areas. The area has changed, and the changes favor us.

And because the demographics of The Southwest has changed, so has the politics. The old “rugged individualism” and “libertarian conservatism” that used to define the region’s politics have faded away as these formerly rural states are becoming much more urban and suburban. After all, why would young parents in Henderson, NV, worry about whether or not they can own assault rifles when they have to make plans for their kids’ college education, keep their kids safe from dangerous air and water pollutions, and be able to afford a home and food and health care? Why would a couple of biotech researchers in Aurora, CO, feel threatened by public park land in the state when they’re worried about keeping their jobs?

See where I’m going? The West has changed. I know. I’ve witnessed how my native Orange County, CA, has changed from “John Birch Society” embarrassment to dynamic urban environment. I’ve seen firsthand how Las Vegas has transformed from small casino town to world-class destination. I’ve been amazed by how the entire region has changed, and how we all saw this on full display as Democrats won across the board here.

So what should we do next? Let’s first talk about Nevada. Barack Obama won here by 12% (vs. a 2% Bush win in 2004), Democrat Dina Titus defeated GOP incumbent Jon Porter for Congress in NV-03, and Democrats now control both houses of the state legislature. So what next? We keep Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Senate and put a good Democrat in the Governor’s seat to replace the disgraced GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, as both are quite doable. I’d now peg the Senate race as “Leans Democratic” and the Governor’s race as “Toss-up”. Oh yes, and we’d be wise to take advantage of Obama’s possible 2012 coattails here by finding a legitimate challenger to GOP Senator John Ensign.

Colorado was also good to us this year, as Obama won by 9% (vs. a 5% Bush win in 2004), Mark Udall won a formerly GOP Senate seat, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04. So what can we do now? I’d peg incumbent Senator Ken Salazar’s 2010 race as “Likely Democratic” now, but we should keep a close watch to make sure we win again. And of course, we’ll need to make sure Obama wins again in 2012.

But what about California? Obama won here by a whopping 24% (vs. a 10% Kerry win in 2004) and Democrats already have both Senate seats & 33 of 53 House seats. What more can we have? How about the Governor’s seat, which I already consider “Leans Democratic” as the GOP has no strong candidate to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger? And how about winning the “Toss-up” House races in CA-03, CA-04, and CA-44 in 2010, where we came so close this year? Same goes for the “Leans Republican” races in CA-46 and CA-50?

And what about Arizona? McCain won his home state by 9% (vs. an 11% Bush win in 2004), but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick still managed to win a formerly GOP seat in AZ-01. So is there still potential here? I think so. Without the McCain win here in 2012. And better yet, we can beat McCain in 2010, as well as fellow GOP Senator Jon Kyl in 2012, with the right candidates. Same goes with the 2010 Governor’s race, which can be a “Toss-up” if we can have a quality candidate run against newly minted GOP Governor Jan Brewer.

So where do we go from here out West? We win! Ready to win?

Democratic Gov. John Baldacci of Maine is term-limited out of the governor’s office next year. Who should run in his place? And who will the GOP nominate here?

Feel free to dig deep.

Granted, it’s not a lot of cash, but it’s still cash on a D+28 seat.

From today’s FEC filings:

  Supports Candidate: AHN CAO

       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Louisiana District 02

       Payee: MARATHON STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS

       Date Expended = 12/02/2008      Amount Expended = $7071.38

       Purpose: FIELD ORGANIZING

  Opposes Candidate: WILLIAM J JEFFERSON

       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Louisiana District 02

       Payee: MARATHON STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS

       Date Expended = 12/02/2008      Amount Expended = $7071.38

       Purpose: FIELD ORGANIZING

Add one more to the list of potential Democratic open seats in the House to be filled by special election soon: CA-31 in downtown Los Angeles. Xavier Becerra, House member since 1992, has, in something of a surprise pick, been asked by the Obama administration to be U.S. Trade Representative. (Anonymous sources seem to conflict over whether or not he has already accepted.)

A vacancy in the Fightin’ 31st will not pose much of a threat; it’s D+30 and 70% Hispanic. State Senator Gilbert Cedillo (SD-22) seems to overlap much of this same turf, but this is also the turf of former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (AD-46), who was just term-limited out of his Assembly position and may well be looking for something new to do.

If anything, the interesting fight over the musical chairs will be in the House leadership, where Becerra was just elected vice chair of the Democratic caucus, the #5 role on the leadership totem pole, possibly meaning more reshuffling involving Chris Van Hollen ditching the DCCC to become vice-chair, or perhaps Debbie Wasserman Schultz leapfrogging into the job, or perhaps another challenge by Marcy Kaptur (who was defeated by Becerra for the job several weeks ago).