Polls will soon be closing in Georgia, and we’ll be using this thread to follow the returns.
8:26PM: This looks pretty bleak.
9:05PM: CNN calls it for Chambliss.
Month: December 2008
GA-Sen: County Baselines
Here were the results on election night last month, broken down by county. As you watch the early returns tonight, keep an eye on these numbers. If Martin is lagging behind his November results, he’s likely toast — barring some miraculously strong metro Atlanta turnout, I guess.
| County | Chambliss | % | Martin | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APPLING | 4,312 | 65% | 2,111 | 32% |
| ATKINSON | 1,530 | 57% | 1,090 | 40% |
| BACON | 2,542 | 70% | 1,024 | 28% |
| BAKER | 750 | 46% | 833 | 52% |
| BALDWIN | 6,948 | 45% | 8,244 | 53% |
| BANKS | 4,268 | 70% | 1,513 | 25% |
| BARROW | 15,684 | 66% | 6,821 | 29% |
| BARTOW | 22,591 | 65% | 10,469 | 30% |
| BEN HILL | 2,868 | 50% | 2,716 | 47% |
| BERRIEN | 3,925 | 64% | 1,994 | 32% |
| BIBB | 26,422 | 42% | 35,850 | 57% |
| BLECKLEY | 3,134 | 64% | 1,677 | 34% |
| BRANTLEY | 4,221 | 72% | 1,464 | 25% |
| BROOKS | 3,239 | 57% | 2,316 | 41% |
| BRYAN | 7,957 | 65% | 3,737 | 31% |
| BULLOCH | 12,690 | 55% | 9,514 | 42% |
| BURKE | 3,864 | 44% | 4,841 | 55% |
| BUTTS | 5,165 | 60% | 3,222 | 37% |
| CALHOUN | 809 | 38% | 1,307 | 61% |
| CAMDEN | 9,689 | 61% | 5,640 | 36% |
| CANDLER | 1,851 | 56% | 1,342 | 41% |
| CARROLL | 25,221 | 60% | 14,739 | 35% |
| CATOOSA | 16,122 | 70% | 6,163 | 27% |
| CHARLTON | 2,180 | 66% | 1,062 | 32% |
| CHATHAM | 43,554 | 42% | 56,596 | 55% |
| CHATTAHOOCHEE | 614 | 40% | 889 | 57% |
| CHATTOOGA | 4,251 | 54% | 3,408 | 43% |
| CHEROKEE | 64,464 | 71% | 21,599 | 24% |
| CLARKE | 15,279 | 35% | 26,202 | 61% |
| CLAY | 478 | 37% | 800 | 62% |
| CLAYTON | 15,893 | 17% | 76,122 | 81% |
| CLINCH | 1,420 | 58% | 963 | 39% |
| COBB | 162,249 | 53% | 129,133 | 42% |
| COFFEE | 7,554 | 58% | 5,119 | 39% |
| COLQUITT | 8,389 | 64% | 4,274 | 33% |
| COLUMBIA | 36,022 | 69% | 14,896 | 28% |
| COOK | 3,249 | 58% | 2,195 | 39% |
| COWETA | 33,988 | 66% | 15,311 | 30% |
| CRAWFORD | 2,945 | 58% | 1,957 | 39% |
| CRISP | 4,010 | 57% | 2,862 | 41% |
| DADE | 3,858 | 65% | 1,852 | 31% |
| DAWSON | 7,259 | 75% | 1,896 | 20% |
| DECATUR | 5,502 | 57% | 3,947 | 41% |
| DEKALB | 65,531 | 21% | 233,727 | 76% |
| DODGE | 4,548 | 59% | 3,026 | 39% |
| DOOLY | 1,859 | 47% | 1,990 | 51% |
| DOUGHERTY | 12,534 | 34% | 23,523 | 64% |
| DOUGLAS | 24,241 | 46% | 26,410 | 50% |
| EARLY | 2,490 | 50% | 2,418 | 49% |
| ECHOLS | 731 | 69% | 296 | 28% |
| EFFINGHAM | 13,066 | 67% | 5,634 | 29% |
| ELBERT | 4,213 | 55% | 3,227 | 42% |
| EMANUEL | 4,295 | 57% | 3,079 | 41% |
| EVANS | 2,078 | 56% | 1,507 | 41% |
| FANNIN | 6,497 | 64% | 3,097 | 31% |
| FAYETTE | 35,528 | 62% | 19,420 | 34% |
| FLOYD | 19,425 | 60% | 11,962 | 37% |
| FORSYTH | 54,928 | 75% | 14,601 | 20% |
| FRANKLIN | 4,951 | 64% | 2,431 | 32% |
| FULTON | 131,438 | 33% | 249,201 | 63% |
| GILMER | 7,022 | 66% | 3,069 | 29% |
| GLASCOCK | 894 | 68% | 384 | 29% |
| GLYNN | 18,690 | 60% | 11,553 | 37% |
| GORDON | 10,892 | 65% | 5,077 | 30% |
| GRADY | 5,158 | 60% | 3,196 | 37% |
| GREENE | 4,209 | 56% | 3,168 | 42% |
| GWINNETT | 150,433 | 53% | 121,015 | 43% |
| HABERSHAM | 10,164 | 71% | 3,532 | 25% |
| HALL | 39,539 | 68% | 15,250 | 26% |
| HANCOCK | 762 | 19% | 3,177 | 79% |
| HARALSON | 7,145 | 66% | 3,039 | 28% |
| HARRIS | 9,344 | 66% | 4,404 | 31% |
| HART | 5,352 | 58% | 3,575 | 39% |
| HEARD | 2,589 | 64% | 1,271 | 32% |
| HENRY | 42,503 | 51% | 38,438 | 46% |
| HOUSTON | 30,750 | 57% | 21,631 | 40% |
| IRWIN | 2,107 | 57% | 1,467 | 40% |
| JACKSON | 15,769 | 71% | 5,417 | 24% |
| JASPER | 3,399 | 60% | 2,093 | 37% |
| JEFF DAVIS | 3,286 | 66% | 1,555 | 31% |
| JEFFERSON | 2,698 | 41% | 3,784 | 57% |
| JENKINS | 1,526 | 48% | 1,627 | 51% |
| JOHNSON | 2,015 | 59% | 1,331 | 39% |
| JONES | 6,917 | 58% | 4,790 | 40% |
| LAMAR | 4,316 | 58% | 2,877 | 39% |
| LANIER | 1,612 | 60% | 1,004 | 37% |
| LAURENS | 10,653 | 56% | 7,936 | 42% |
| LEE | 8,803 | 70% | 3,509 | 28% |
| LIBERTY | 5,108 | 33% | 9,810 | 64% |
| LINCOLN | 2,351 | 57% | 1,655 | 40% |
| LONG | 1,692 | 52% | 1,451 | 44% |
| LOWNDES | 19,852 | 54% | 16,054 | 44% |
| LUMPKIN | 7,039 | 65% | 3,060 | 28% |
| MACON | 1,598 | 34% | 2,984 | 64% |
| MADISON | 7,028 | 64% | 3,447 | 32% |
| MARION | 1,419 | 47% | 1,509 | 50% |
| MCDUFFIE | 4,838 | 55% | 3,829 | 43% |
| MCINTOSH | 2,863 | 48% | 2,895 | 49% |
| MERIWETHER | 4,296 | 47% | 4,497 | 49% |
| MILLER | 1,621 | 64% | 853 | 34% |
| MITCHELL | 3,821 | 49% | 3,821 | 49% |
| MONROE | 7,150 | 60% | 4,376 | 37% |
| MONTGOMERY | 2,047 | 60% | 1,281 | 38% |
| MORGAN | 5,469 | 62% | 3,078 | 35% |
| MURRAY | 6,636 | 62% | 3,653 | 34% |
| MUSCOGEE | 26,256 | 38% | 41,324 | 60% |
| NEWTON | 18,195 | 46% | 20,197 | 51% |
| OCONEE | 11,443 | 69% | 4,583 | 28% |
| OGLETHORPE | 3,614 | 58% | 2,335 | 38% |
| PAULDING | 35,242 | 64% | 17,335 | 32% |
| PEACH | 4,849 | 45% | 5,679 | 53% |
| PICKENS | 8,617 | 70% | 3,086 | 25% |
| PIERCE | 4,942 | 78% | 1,294 | 20% |
| PIKE | 5,816 | 72% | 1,906 | 24% |
| POLK | 7,942 | 59% | 5,056 | 37% |
| PULASKI | 2,116 | 56% | 1,598 | 42% |
| PUTNAM | 5,361 | 61% | 3,146 | 36% |
| QUITMAN | 400 | 40% | 565 | 57% |
| RABUN | 4,418 | 61% | 2,530 | 35% |
| RANDOLPH | 1,236 | 42% | 1,675 | 57% |
| RICHMOND | 24,709 | 34% | 46,767 | 64% |
| ROCKDALE | 15,491 | 43% | 19,524 | 54% |
| SCHLEY | 1,092 | 66% | 515 | 31% |
| SCREVEN | 2,863 | 47% | 3,029 | 50% |
| SEMINOLE | 2,008 | 54% | 1,590 | 43% |
| SPALDING | 13,087 | 55% | 9,868 | 42% |
| STEPHENS | 6,337 | 64% | 3,273 | 33% |
| STEWART | 687 | 36% | 1,184 | 62% |
| SUMTER | 5,430 | 47% | 5,971 | 51% |
| TALBOT | 1,095 | 32% | 2,238 | 65% |
| TALIAFERRO | 290 | 33% | 563 | 65% |
| TATTNALL | 3,867 | 61% | 2,295 | 36% |
| TAYLOR | 1,769 | 52% | 1,589 | 47% |
| TELFAIR | 1,980 | 47% | 2,170 | 52% |
| TERRELL | 1,850 | 44% | 2,302 | 55% |
| THOMAS | 9,771 | 57% | 6,827 | 40% |
| TIFT | 8,398 | 61% | 4,973 | 36% |
| TOOMBS | 5,609 | 61% | 3,241 | 35% |
| TOWNS | 3,559 | 65% | 1,689 | 31% |
| TREUTLEN | 1,500 | 54% | 1,206 | 44% |
| TROUP | 13,595 | 55% | 10,153 | 41% |
| TURNER | 1,732 | 52% | 1,521 | 46% |
| TWIGGS | 1,753 | 41% | 2,468 | 57% |
| UNION | 6,483 | 63% | 3,292 | 32% |
| UPSON | 6,536 | 60% | 4,112 | 38% |
| WALKER | 14,785 | 67% | 6,656 | 30% |
| WALTON | 24,619 | 71% | 8,765 | 25% |
| WARE | 7,677 | 66% | 3,724 | 32% |
| WARREN | 940 | 39% | 1,407 | 58% |
| WASHINGTON | 3,679 | 44% | 4,556 | 55% |
| WAYNE | 6,099 | 61% | 3,535 | 35% |
| WEBSTER | 496 | 47% | 544 | 51% |
| WHEELER | 1,184 | 56% | 908 | 43% |
| WHITE | 7,234 | 69% | 2,676 | 26% |
| WHITFIELD | 16,805 | 64% | 8,542 | 32% |
| WILCOX | 1,778 | 58% | 1,219 | 40% |
| WILKES | 2,282 | 49% | 2,252 | 49% |
| WILKINSON | 1,980 | 44% | 2,403 | 54% |
| WORTH | 4,906 | 61% | 2,882 | 36% |
| Total | 1,867,090 | 49.8% | 1,757,419 | 46.8% |
GA-SEN: Martin Campaign Predicting “Close Victory”
Given the polls, the idea of Jim Martin may be crazy. It may be crazier to report a post predicting it. But, according the the progressive blog Tondee’s Tavern, Martin’s folks are feeling good right now.
Just heard from a top Martin campaign aide that they are expecting a “close” victory for Jim.
The blogger did not give any specific reasons for such a prediction and it all just be for morale. Either way, I thought I would post it and let everyone decide for themselves.
GA-Sen: Predictions Thread
Polls close at 7pm Eastern tonight in Georgia. We’ll be rolling with live blog coverage later.
So what do you got? The closest prediction earns you 15 minutes worth of bragging rights.
Update: DCCC membership dues.
Well, just before the election, SSP listen a ridiculously large group of Congresspersons who were late in paying their DCCC dues. Many of us were outraged since that amount exceeded I believe 6 million dollars in past dues. I said I would write my Congresswoman, who I knew would be on that list, Grace Napolitano CA-38, and today, got a response from her Chief of Staff.
Mr. Groen,I’m Daniel Chao, chief of staff for Rep. Napolitano. Thank you for sending the Congresswoman your letter on DCCC dues. I wanted to let you know that 2 days after your email, the Congresswoman met personally with DCCC Chair Rep. Chris Van Hollen to personally hand him a check with pending dues.
I sincerely appreciate your work on behalf of us in the field going door to door for Mayor Cook. This race unfortunately didn’t garner the kind of attention it should have received and we look forward to helping in the future.
Please have a wonderful and safe holiday. Best wishes,
Daniel
Do not let it be said that I don’t do what I’ll say I’m going to do. I answered the call SSP, thank you for making me a better citizen! Honestly, I was surprised to get a response, let alone a personalized one. Rep. Napolitano is not the best when it comes to that. It is nice to know that some, if not all the late paying Congresspersons ponied up and gave what they were supposed to.
GA-Senate Prediction Thread
Come on ya’ll, lets get predicting!
Today is the big day and I just couldn’t contain myself any longer. I also am frightened of incurring DavidNYC’s wrath by posting in another thread so lets have at it.
My guess:
Chambliss 52%
Martin 48%
I’d put the African-American vote at 25% and Martin getting about 29% of the white vote.
I’m praying for a miracle.
Loading ...Sizemore Update: He’s Still in Jail!
The following is an update of yesterday’s diary about Bill Sizemore’s arrest for contempt of court (his fourth such citation and the first time he’s been arrested for it). It contains some more details on why Sizemore was arrested and what comes next.
My Previous Diary is here: OR Conservative Activist Bill Sizemore Gets Jailed!
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…
Bill Sizemore currently languishes in jail due to his fourth contempt of court citation in the past few years. As Judge Wilson said in court on Monday, “Mr. Sizemore is so blinded by his hatred of the unions who are plaintiffs in this case that he seems to have concluded that he is not required to follow the law.” Perhaps the best quote though, comes from Kevin Looper, head of Defend Oregon, the organization which successfully defeated all of Sizemore’s measures last fall, who told the press “We’ve got John Gotti here pretending he’s Nelson Mandela.”
For those of you who wish to learn more about Sizemore, either view my previous diary yesterday (linked above) or this video from an interview he gave ABC News this fall:
What’s Next?
Sizemore has quite the conundrum ahead of him. As I understand it the contempt citation states that Sizemore will remain jailed until he files both the state and federal tax returns for the American Taxpayers Researchers Foundation (ARTF) for the years 2006 and 2007. Sizemore controls ARTF and it is the contention of the plaintiffs (the teacher’s unions) that this is merely an attempt by Sizemore to go around the injunction against political activity filed as a result of his loss in the 2003 racketeering lawsuit. The injunction has five main components:
1. It bars any Sizemore-controlled organization from giving anything of value, be it money or support, to a political action committee for five years (which just expired earlier this year I believe).
2. It bars any Sizemore-controlled political action committee from receiving anything of value from a 501c(3) organization for five years.
3. It bars any Sizemore-controlled charitable organization or political action committee from transferring assets until the plaintiffs are paid their $2.5M judgment.
4. It bars any Sizemore-controlled charitable organization or political action committee from doing business with any Sizemore-controlled signature gathering firm for five years.
5. It requires any Sizemore-controlled organization to comply with federal or state election reporting laws as appropriate for five years. This provision might seem logical because everyone should follow the law but it appears to raise the stakes if Sizemore violates the laws again.
So Sizemore now has an unenviable choice of whether to not file the forms and therefore violate the law or to file them and disclose the extent to which he has expended moneys from these organizations for his own personal benefit. This would then expose him to potential civil liability (and maybe criminal as well but as a non-lawyer I don’t know if what he’s doing is a crime) both as a result of this suit and from the penalties the IRS and Oregon Department of Revenue might well levy against him for violating federal and state prohibitions against expending nonprofit funds for personal gain.
Key Links:
For the only known shot of Sizemore being led away go here: http://blogtown.portlandmercur…
For Sizemore’s mug shot and current prison status go here for the official sheriff’s information: http://www.mcso.us/PAID/Bookin…
For the Court’s order go here: http://www.oregoned.org/atf/cf…
Let me know what you think.
FL-Sen: Martinez Will Retire
A sadsack end for a truly sadsack politician. From the St. Petersburg Times:
Mel Martinez, a Cuban immigrant who came to America with nothing and rose to U.S. Housing Secretary and then U.S. Senator, just announced that he will not seek re-election after serving out the next two years of his term. Martinez, 62, said he made the announcement early to give the “many, qualified individuals” time to organize and prepare for the open seat election in 2010.
The potential candidates:
Martinez’s departure immediately set off speculation about potential successors, including whether Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink will reconsider her expected announcement that she would not run for Senate in 2010 and instead seek another term on the Cabinet.
Among the potential Republican candidates: Attorney General Bill McCollum, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, U.S. Reps. Adam Putnam and Vern Buchanan. Democratic names include Sink, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, state Sen. Dan Gelber, and U.S. Reps. Ron Klein, Allen Boyd, and Kendrick Meek.
From his extreme douchebaggery during the Terri Schiavo affair, to his ill-fated run at the top of the RNC, to his thoroughly mediocre job approval ratings, it was clear that the past four years haven’t been much fun for Martinez, so it’s not a huge shock that he’s decided to bail in 2010. It’s now just a question of who will run — the primaries on both sides, if 2004 is any indication, could get crowded pretty quickly.
Update: As for Alex Sink, she is apparently backing off from her planned re-election announcement in order to reassess the situation. Very good. For the GOP, state AG Bill McCollum says he’s considering a run.
Martinez to Retire, may even resign!
The Northeast – Continuing the realignment in 2010?
We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.
That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!
But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast……..
Just to avoid any debate, (and because I got it wrong last time I tried this) the US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:
States that voted for Obama: 9/9
Governors: 6/9
US Senators: 14/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)
House Districts: 68/83
State Senates: 8/9
State Houses: 9/9
Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying much about it such as all of our Northeast US Senators and US House races on the ballot in 2010.
Going state by state then:
Connecticut
Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Jodi Rell is quite popular and will likely be looking for a 3rd term. OTOH the Dem bench is VERY deep and a top tier challenger should be able to be found. Problem is who would want to take on such a popular pol?
US Senate – Both Dems (Hey Lieberman isn’t up for re-election in 2010 Dodd is.)
US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on CT-04
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzz
Maine
Gubernatorial – Dem John Baldacci probably won’t run again which on balance makes this gubernatorial chamber an easier hold for us than otherwise. The only possible exception to this is if either of the GOP US Senators run – a highly unlikely thing to happen.
US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010
US House – ALL OURS BABY!
State Senate – We actually added to our margin here in 2008 moving it from 18/17 to 20/15 and yep they are all up again in 2010. A chamber to watch but we should be ok in this increasingly reliable state.
State House – zzzzzzzzzz
Massachusetts – aka nothing to see here move right along!
Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
US Senate – Both Dems zzzzzzzzzzzz
US House – ALL OURS BABY! zzzzzzzzzzzzz
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzzzz
New Hampshire
Gubernatorial – If Dem Gov Lynch runs he will win. If, as I hope, Lynch runs for the Senate then look for 2nd CD Rep Hodes to run and win for team Blue instead. My how New Hampshire has quickly shifted to us.
US Senate – 1 Dem 1 Rep and the Rep is on the ballot – Judd Gregg. Gregg has a target on his back already and I expect either Gov Lynch or Rep Hodes to run and for this one to be a barn burner.
US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on NH-01
State Senate – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains.
State House – Nothing really to see here we held onto almost all of our 2006 gains, dropping from 231 to 225 out of 400 we will hang onto this one in 2010 IMHO.
New Jersey
Gubernatorial – On ballot in 2009 (Go Corzine). Any Dem would be favoured to win this one as NJ residents hate all their pols they just hate Democrats less than Republicans.
US Senate – Both Dems
US House –
NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that I suspect Obama won and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Will have a Cook Dem PVI.
NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and I think Obama only just fell short so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.
NJ-05 – Gee I hope 2008 Dem candidate Dennis Shulman runs again in 2010. Holding a GOP incumbent to 56% in this reasonably strong GOP district is a fair effort. Otherwise this one won’t be on the radar in 2010.
NJ-07 – I don’t know what happened here this year but a top tier candidate who is NOT Linda Stender is required. This district is winnable particulalrly with a freshman GOP incumbent. I think Obama carried it also.
NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.
Keep an eye on NJ-03.
State Senate – Up in 2011
State House – Up in 2009 zzzzzzzzzz
New York
Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzz – Name one GOPper who could be elected statewide? – exactly.
US Senate – Both Dems. Despite Hillary’s appointment as SOS this one will be held by whichever Dem is appointed IMHO.
US House –
NY-03 – Pete King is genuinely popular in his district and we should be hoping that the rumours of him making a gubernatorial run turn out to be true. Otherwise we really do need a top tier candidate here – paging Tom Suozzi – but that is unlikely unless the seat is Open.
NY-23 – I expect McHugh to retire in 2010; call it a hunch. If so we will easily find a top tier candidate here otherwise McHugh is perceived as unbeatable.
NY-26 – Democrats in this District just got it wrong in the Primary and we need a top tier candidate against a freshman incumbent who only got 55% first time at bat.
Keep an eye on Dem incumbents in NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.
State Senate – Yep we have just won control of this chamber for the first time in like 3 million years. It should be 32/30 or maybe 33/29 with one race still undecided. With them all up again in 2010 we need to look for GOP State Senators who are in heavily Democratic areas of NYC and unlikely to run again as they are now free of the influence of Joe Bruni (R-thug) who kept a number of GOP Senators in place long after they wanted to retire.
I think the following are potentially competitive races as open, specials or vulnerable incumbents in 2010:
NY SS-06 – GOP incumbent won with 51.5% of the vote in 2008.
NY SS-11 – Race still undecided if Repub incumbent wins it will be by less than 1000 votes.
NY SS-22 – GOP incumbent in heart of blue NYC.
NY SS-42 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.
NY SS-44 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.
NY SS-56 – GOP incumbent won with 52.2% of the vote.
NY SS-61 – GOP incumbent won with 53.5% of the vote.
Not to mention that an additional 4 or 5 GOP State Senators will be older than 70 in 2010.
State House – zzzzzzzzzzz
Pennsylvania
Gubernatorial – This one might get complicated. Dem Gov Ed Rendell is term limited and Dem Lt Gov Catherine Baker Knoll has just sadly passed away thus making State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati the new Lt Gov and he is a Republican. Deep bench on our side including Senator Bob Casey? It goes without saying that the Repubs will have a top tier candidate also. This race makes me nervous as Pennsylvania is less reliably blue than any other state in the North East.
US Senate – 1 of ours (Casey), 1 of theirs (Specter) who is up in 2010. It has been suggested to me that Specter coud be approached to switch which would be fine by me but failing that we have a deep bench and this is a must win if we are to continue the blueing of the Northeast. Specter may yet decide to retire in which case we really are in the box seat for this race.
US House –
PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.
PA-06 – As probably the single biggest recruiting miss of 2008 this one is infuriating. Gerlach was held to 52% by a 3rd tier candidate and Obama won every county that this district covers. It is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Probably the highest priority house race for the DCCC on offense in the Northeast (open seats notwithstanding).
PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.
PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Disappointing 41% for 2008 Dem candidate means we need a top tier challenger here ASAP.
PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.
PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.
PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010.
Watch Dem incumbents in PA-03 and PA-11.
State Senate – The only State chamber still controlled by the GOP in the Northeast. We actually went backwards there this year dropping from 21/28/1 to 20/29/1. And with only half of the State Senate up every two years this one is a hard one to flip in 2010. However the following should probably be targetted IMHO, particularly if they are open races:
PA SS-06 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.4% in 2006.
PA SS-10 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.5% in 2006.
PA SS-12 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-16 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 54.2% in 2006.
PA SS-20 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-24 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.2% in 2006.
PA SS-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SS-50 – Incumbent got 53.5% in 2006.
Now I am not suggesting that every State Senate race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also.
State House – In 2008 we managed to increase our margin of control from 102/101 to 104/99; still far too close for comfort. Vulnerable Repubs include:
PA SH-4 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-13 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-15 – Incumbent got 51.5% in 2008.
PA SH-18 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-28 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-29 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-30 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-31 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-57 – Incumbent got 51.6% in 2008.
PA SH-61 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-70 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-75 – Incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.
PA SH-102 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-104 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-105 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-106 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-128 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.8% in 2008.
PA SH-129 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-131 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-134 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-138 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-142 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.7% in 2008.
PA SH-146 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.
PA SH-150 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-152 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-155 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-157 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-158 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-160 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-162 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-163 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-164 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-165 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-167 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-168 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-169 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-170 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-172 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-176 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-177 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-178 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-183 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.
PA SH-187 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.3% in 2008.
Now I am not suggesting that every State House race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, particularly given that State House districts are so small, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also. Yep the same thinking that applies to the PA State Senate.
Rhode Island
Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited! With a bench a mile deep we should be a lock to pick this one up as the GOP bench is almost non existent.
US Senate – Both Dems
US House – ALL OURS BABY!
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzz
Vermont
Gubernatorial – If GOP Gov Jim Douglas runs he wins I think. However if he runs for the Senate then we should win here EXCEPT for one nasty wrinkle. In Vermont the Progrssive Party frequently run in statewide races which not only splits the left of centre vote but often allows Republicans to get elected. Surely an accomodation must be able to be found to allow us to have a decent shot at this one in 2010. OTOH GOP Lt Gov Brian Dubie is almost the only statewide candidate that the GOP could present and he could make a race of it.
US Senate – Both Dems
US House – ALL OURS BABY!
State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzz
State House – zzzzzzzzzzzz
What do you think?
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