Month: December 2008

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O Democrats)

About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want to discuss what’s happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.

Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?

Let’s start in Wyoming. While John McCain beat Barack Obama by 32%, it was an improvement over Bush’s 40% margin of victory in 2004. And believe it or not, Wyoming voters twice elected Democrat Dave Freudenthal as Governor while Democrat Gary Trauner twice lost the At-Large House seat by surprisingly narrow margins. We have an opportunity in 2010 to win both races, as Freudenthal is termed out and newly elected GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis doesn’t seem much more popular than outgoing GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin. I see both races as “Leans Republican” now, but that can change if we find good candidates.

Unlike Wyoming, Montana is rapidly trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 20% in 2004, but McCain could only muster a 3% win and Obama may be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win here in 2012. And better yet, Montana now has 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and a split legislature. But for some reason, incumbent GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg is still in office. If we find a strong Democrat to challenge Rehberg in 2010, I think we can make this “Likely Republican” seat more competitive.

Now Idaho may not be trending Democratic as quickly as Montana, but the state is moving our way. Bush’s 39% win in 2004 was reduced to a 25% McCain win this year. And better yet, Democrat Walt Minnick scored a stunning upset win over incumbent GOP Rep. Bill Sali in ID-01. But even though Minnick won this year, we must remember that this House seat will be the top GOP seat in 2010. This race looks like a “Toss-up” now, and we’ll need to work hard to hold ID-01 while continuing to make electoral gains in Idaho.

While all the other Northwest states previously mentioned still tilt toward the GOP, Washington state is quite the different game. Barack Obama won here by 17%, a great improvement over Kerry’s narrower 7% win in 2004. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Chris Gregoire won reelection this year while Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature, both Democratic Senators, and all 6 Democratic House Reps. look quite safe. However, we have a chance to pick up another House seat in the eastern suburban Seattle WA-08 district. Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Reichert only narrowly won reelection in 2006 & 2008 in a district that both Kerry & Obama won. If we perhaps find a candidate with legislative experience to challenge Reichert in 2010, we can finally win this “Toss-up” race.

As you can see, The Northwest is undergoing many of the same changes being seen Southwest. Wyoming and Idaho may still look strongly Republican, but Montana has rapidly become a swing state as Oregon and Washington have gone from simply leaning Democratic to strongly Democratic. As the population grows, diversifies, and changes from rural to suburban & urban, Democrats are rising to victory.

As long as demographics change and voters continue to care less about “the culture wars” and more about issues like energy, environmental preservation, and economic development, Democrats will win. That’s why our party must continue to invest in winning The West. So are you ready to win?

Last week we released our first wave of results, for over 100 congressional districts. Today, as promised, here’s our second wave, with the results for another 95 districts.

Despite the huge avalanche of data, we’re still only halfway done. Please take a look at our master database to see what states remain. Even if you don’t have time to tabulate data yourself but if you’ve sniffed out some precinct-level data sources anywhere, please let us know in the database! We need you, to put the “crowd” in “crowdsourcing.” (A permalink to all our results so far is available here.)

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	2008 %	2004 %	2000 %
AZ-01	127,790	157,160	3,848	44.3/54.4	46/54	46/51
AZ-02	138,275	220,667	4,279	38.1/60.8	38/61	41/57
AZ-03	121,996	162,724	3,422	42.3/56.5	41/58	43/55
AZ-04	86,815	43,610	1,651	65.7/33.0	62/38	63/35
AZ-05	140,287	153,736	3,362	47.2/51.7	45./54	43/54
AZ-06	135,178	220,718	4,068	37.6/61.3	35/64	37/61
AZ-07	123,202	89,725	2,491	57.2/41.7	57/43	58/38
AZ-08	161,164	181,771	4,141	46.4/52.4	46/53	46/50
FL-01	112,291	232,449	3,638	32.2/66.7	28/72	31/69
FL-02	161,822	196,555	3,715	44.7/54.3	46/54	47/53
FL-03	144,167	52,056	1,213	73.0/26.4	65/35	65/35
FL-04	141,930	231,915	3,541	37.6/61.5	31/69	34/66
FL-05	191,959	249,328	5,029	43.0/55.9	41/58	46/54
FL-06	117,280	184,864	3,089	38.4/60.6	39/61	42/58
FL-07	116,797	158,437	2,868	42.0/57.0	43/57	46/54
FL-08	187,295	167,127	2,714	52.4/46.8	45/55	46/54
FL-09	169,897	190,344	4,596	46.6/52.2	43/57	46/54
FL-10	164,148	150,962	4,895	51.3/47.1	49/51	51/49
FL-11	174,314	88,357	2,642	65.7/33.3	58/41	61/39
FL-12	115,180	123,958	2,424	47.7/51.3	42/58	45/55
FL-13	175,991	196,908	3,732	46.7/52.3	44/56	46/55
FL-14	167,015	224,405	3,084	42.3/56.9	38/62	39/61
FL-15	137,627	152,415	3,352	46.9/52.0	43/57	46/54
FL-16	174,255	191,423	3,821	47.2/51.8	46/54	47/53
FL-17	209,839	29,758	899	87.3/12.4	83/17	85/15
FL-18	128,124	122,428	1,774	50.8/48.5	46/54	43/57
FL-19	223,009	115,655	2,249	65.4/33.9	66/34	73/27
FL-20	186,912	106,344	2,240	63.3/36.0	64/36	69/31
FL-21	122,024	127,402	1,232	48.7/50.8	43/57	42/58
FL-22	175,731	162,012	2,638	51.6/47.6	52/48	52/48
FL-23	194,022	39,159	1,141	82.8/16.7	76/24	80/20
FL-24	116,527	127,386	2,562	47.3/51.7	45/55	47/53
FL-25	126,010	128,349	1,359	49.3/50.2	44/56	45/55
HI-01	152,320	60,979	4,129	70.1/28.1	53/47	55/39
HI-02	172,881	59,450	5,278	72.8/25.0	56/44	56/36
IL-01	248,990	37,176	1,587	86.5/12.9	83/17	84/16
IL-02	260,869	28,676	1,347	89.7/9.9	84/16	83/17
IL-03	154,999	85,502	3,203	63.6/35.1	59/41	58/40
IL-04	119,227	18,453	1,866	85.4/13.2	79/21	79/20
IL-05	178,170	62,906	3,383	72.9/25.7	67/33	66/34
IL-06	156,903	119,998	3,737	55.9/42.8	47/53	44/53
IL-07	255,470	33,662	1,935	87.8/11.6	83/17	83/16
IL-08	140,593	104,544	3,161	56.6/42.1	44/56	42/56
IL-09	188,822	68,989	3,202	72.3/26.4	68/32	67/31
IL-10	178,561	111,755	2,801	60.9/38.1	53/47	51/47
IL-11	163,664	137,334	4,640	53.6/44.9	46/53	48/50
IL-12	140,346	114,112	4,086	54.3/44.1	52/48	54/43
IL-13	188,155	154,788	4,148	54.2/44.6	45/55	42/55
IL-14	145,613	118,327	3,559	54.4/44.2	44/55	43/54
IL-15	123,074	124,717	4,472	48.8/49.4	41/59	43/54
IL-16	114,337	96,108	3,622	53.4/44.9	44/55	43/54
IL-17	113,913	79,311	2,918	58.1/40.4	51/48	54/44
IL-18	139,085	136,394	4,690	49.6/48.7	42/58	44/54
IL-19	69,939	93,635	2,941	42.0/56.2	39/61	41/56
MD-01	142,667	208,743	6,839	39.8/58.3	36/62	40/57
MD-02	164,089	106,088	5,263	59.6/38.5	54/45	57/41
MD-03	176,572	118,975	5,997	58.6/39.5	54/45	55/41
MD-04	240,715	40,002	2,200	85.1/14.1	78/21	77/21
MD-05	219,437	114,607	4,287	64.9/33.9	57/42	57/41
MD-06	138,091	198,238	7,426	40.2/57.7	34/65	36/61
MD-07	214,542	54,354	3,578	78.7/20.0	73/26	73/25
MD-08	201,510	69,062	3,922	73.4/25.2	69/30	66/31
NE-01	121,411	148,179	4,303	44.3/54.1	36/63	36/59
NE-02	138,809	135,439	3,561	50.0/48.8	38/60	39/57
NE-03	73,099	169,361	4,282	29.6/68.6	24/75	25/71
NV-01	158,418	85,226	5,139	63.7/34.3	57/42	56/41
NV-02	167,812	167,900	8,417	48.8/48.8	41/57	37/57
NV-03	207,418	159,574	7,716	55.4/42.6	49/50	49/48
NC-01	177,941	105,738	1,288	62.4/37.1	57/42	57/42
NC-02	155,681	141,840	2,397	51.9/47.3	46/54	46/53
NC-03	117,178	190,093	2,456	37.8/61.4	32/68	35/64
NC-04	275,205	159,427	4,305	62.7/36.3	55/44	53/46
NC-05	126,556	203,076	4,208	37.9/60.8	33/66	33/66
NC-06	122,291	212,011	3,525	36.2/62.8	30/69	32/67
NC-07	150,071	167,888	2,747	46.8/52.4	44/56	48/52
NC-08	152,261	135,234	2,222	52.6/46.7	45/54	46/54
NC-09	174,410	212,250	3,043	44.8/54.5	36/63	36/63
NC-10	108,496	191,580	3,501	35.7/63.1	33/67	34/65
NC-11	159,772	179,061	4,746	46.5/52.1	43/57	40/58
NC-12	218,599	89,790	2,033	70.4/28.9	63/37	57/42
NC-13	204,190	140,486	3,193	58.7/40.4	52/47	49/50
SC-01	118,356	174,458	3,810	39.9/58.8	39/61	38/59
SC-02	135,452	175,052	3,284	43.2/55.8	39/60	39/58
SC-03	95,124	178,089	3,644	34.4/64.3	34/66	35/63
SC-04	118,453	188,854	5,229	37.9/60.4	34/65	33/64
SC-05	135,564	160,944	3,497	45.2/53.7	42/57	43/55
SC-06	139,438	83,696	2,278	61.9/37.1	61/39	58/40
WA-01	226,526	130,343	5,911	62.4/35.9	56/42	53/42
WA-02	202,480	151,992	7,415	56.0/42.0	51/47	48/46
WA-03	183,306	159,803	6,898	52.4/45.7	48/50	46/48
WA-04	111,423	159,904	5,127	40.3/57.8	35/63	34/62
WA-05	152,921	171,426	8,283	46.0/51.5	41/57	40/56
WA-06	182,446	128,681	6,545	57.4/40.5	53/45	52/43
WA-07	308,226	55,200	5,536	83.5/15.0	79/19	72/21
WA-08	210,998	155,900	5,779	56.6/41.8	51/48	49/47
WA-09	172,318	115,837	5,298	58.7/39.5	53/46	53/43

This round was even more fun than the previous batch, because it involves a number of states where the turnaround was huge (either because of the favorite son effect, as in Illinois, or because the Obama campaign actually decided to compete there for once, like Nevada and North Carolina). Want to see some truly staggering progress? Check out IL-08, once the core of Chicago’s deep red suburbs (and home to Rep. Phil Crane), and even the site of a 56-44 edge for Bush in 2004. This year? Obama won 57-42.

As we get into the more complicated states here (the last wave picked all the lowest hanging fruit), there are some caveats to be mindful of, which may affect the data reliability a small amount. In Florida, for instance, we’re missing precinct-level data for one county, which affects two districts (the 3rd and 6th); unfortunately, it’s a pretty big county (Alachua, home of Gainesville and Univ. of Florida). In Illinois, all districts are affected by the curse of split precincts, which don’t seem to make much of a big difference, while some of the downstate districts are affected by some missing precinct-level data from some smaller counties; because of their small size, it doesn’t seem to affect the district’s overall percentages much, though.

In North Carolina, our spreadsheet whiz there broke the totals down into ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ totals, with ‘hard’ reflecting only known numbers and ‘soft’ allocating early votes and absentees proportionately (which apparently just sit in an indistinguished lump in NC). I chose to proceed using the ‘soft’ totals, which are much larger, but a stickler might choose to focus on ‘hard’ totals instead. South Carolina also has a high number of ‘indivisibles’ in its spreadsheet, which appear to be a lot of split precincts. The high number of indivisibles appears to exert some pressure on some of the percentages in South Carolina, perhaps in SC-01, where there appears to be little leftward movement since 2004.

So, take the numbers with a grain of salt, and certainly don’t expect these numbers to be a 100% match for Polidata’s numbers, forthcoming this spring. And of course, please contribute to this project however you see fit!

Whether or not GOP Sen. George Voinovich actually runs for another term in 2010 remains to be seen, but you can bet that Democrats will attempt to mount a major challenge for his seat that year — especially with Voiny running neck-and-neck with “Generic D” in the latest polling. Who is your preferred candidate for the task?

On the gubernatorial side of the equation, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland has earned positive reviews during his first term so far, but the GOP probably won’t cede this race by any means. Who do you imagine will step up for Team Red?

---

Just a minor housekeeping note: Thanks to all who have taken our Blogads reader survey. The information collected helps potential advertisers make informed decisions about supporting us and other blogs in general — and that goes a long way towards keeping the lights on here at SSP. So, if you haven’t yet done so, please take the survey when you have a moment. Thanks again!

Apparently, it’s confirmed:

A transition official for President-elect Barack Obama says Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar will be named Interior Secretary later this week.

The appointment will round out Obama’s environment and energy team. He unveiled most of the team on Monday. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid pre-empting Obama’s upcoming announcement.

This aide did just pre-empt Obama’s announcement – the only thing anonymity does is possibly protect his or her sorry ass (unless this was one of those “intentional” leaks directed from on high). Whatever. I’ve already gone on record saying I’m not thrilled with this choice – I would have much preferred Rep. Raul Grijalva – but that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of SSP.

Gov. Bill Ritter, a Dem, gets to pick Salazar’s replacement. The seat, which was up in 2010 anyway, might now see see a more competitive race than it otherwise would have, especially if Ritter picks a caretaker. Who do you like to replace Salazar, and who might face off against his replacement in two years?

UPDATE: Some names supposedly in circulation, according to the Denver Post:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper

Rep. John Salazar

Rep. Ed Perlmutter

Rep. Diana DeGette

Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet

Outgoing state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff

Former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland

No surprises here: Kentucky Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo is seriously considering a rematch against creaky GOP Sen. Jim Bunning:

“I’m considering the race. I think at this stage, being less than two years away, anyone running against an incumbent will have to start the fundraising process.” […]

Now, though he continues to mull a bid, Mongiardo sounds like he wants a second shot at Bunning.

“I got involved in politics out of frustration for where healthcare was headed. And that will largely determine what I do and where I go,” Mongiardo said. “It’s interesting how the stars are lining up right now with [President-elect] Obama and the incoming administration talking about reforming healthcare.”

Mongiardo added he will consider whether he’s done all he can to help improve Kentucky’s healthcare situation, but that his expertise could help his party.

“I think the Democratic Party needs a physician” in the Senate, he said. “We need more people that understand healthcare from the inside to help change it.”

I like Dr. Dan a lot, and if he wants a rematch against Bunning (who insists that he’s running for another term despite his advanced age and notoriously, uh, sloppy campaign style), I’d be happy to let him take it. But fortunately, Mongiardo isn’t the only option we have — both state Auditor Crit Luallan and state Attorney General Jack Conway are also considering the race. Any one of them could give Bunning a serious scare in 2010.

Update: Somewhat amazingly, I neglected to mention Rep. Ben Chandler’s name as a potential candidate. Okay, so we have four strong possibilities here, although I haven’t heard Chandler express his interest lately.

From the Montgomery Advertiser:

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Birmingham, is being vetted for an undisclosed position in president-elect Barack Obama’s administration, but he said he isn’t seeking a new job and doesn’t expect to be selected.

Davis, a three-term Democrat who attended Harvard Law School with Obama, said the transition team approached him several weeks ago and asked if he would undergo a background check. Davis’ office declined to say what position is being considered. Obama’s transition team, which has vetted dozens of potential nominees, declined to comment Friday.

“While I have agreed to allow the background check to go forward, I have not received any offer regarding this position and there are other extremely well-qualified candidates who are being considered by the president-elect,” Davis said in a written statement. “Candidly, I do not expect to receive any offer from the president-elect and I expect to serve in the United States Congress for one final term.”

The words “one final term” indicate pretty strongly that Davis is seriously considering a run for the open Governor’s office, and he doesn’t sound particularly interested in a job with the Obama Administration. In any case, we can probably expect to see a pretty crowded field develop for this D+17 seat when Artur leaves the building.

We’re pleased to announce that we’ve created a perma-post for the 2008 presidential results by congressional district. (We’ve included the 2004 and 2000 results as well.) You can use this link, and you’ll also find a permalink in the “Resources” box on the right-hand sidebar of the site.

As our crowdsourcing project continues, we’ll keep adding new numbers. In fact, you should expect another round of numbers this week.

---

Some other site news stuff: Thank you to everyone who has taken the Blogads reader survey so far! We’ve gathered about 75 responses so far, which is terrific. We’d love to hit at least 100. This may not be a scientific study, but nonetheless, everyone on this site knows the value of a big N! So please take the survey today. Once it’s complete, I promise that we’ll share some of the results.

Continue reading Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008

Up until this point this story has involved a lot of speculation and not a whole lot of real facts.

It now appears that she is indeed interested in the Senate seat and is taking all of the steps that someone who was seeking a seat like this would take, including reaching out to political figures in New York.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12…

Like I’ve said before, with her now seeking the seat, I think its going to be difficult for Gov. Patterson to appoint someone like Suozzi or Gillibrand, people whose name ID outside of their constituencies is virtually nil.

Hot off the presses a few hours ago:

President-elect Barack Obama, who has vowed to adopt an aggressive approach to global warming and the environment, will announce his choices to lead the effort at a news conference on Monday.

…

He is also close to naming a secretary of the interior — the federal department that leases public lands for oil and gas drilling. Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado, who once practiced as an environmental lawyer, is the leading contender, sources close to the transition said.

Now that John Salazar is out of contention for Secretary of Agriculture, Ken could provide Obama with another prominent Hispanic in the Cabinet (as Raul Grijalva of AZ seems to have falled off the radar).

Who do you think would get the Senate seat if it opens up? This would be a big prize: Ken was young and had the seat as long as he wanted it, and Mark Udall was just elected, so no Dem would see a realistic opportunity to move to the Senate for 12 years, barring death/incapacitation.

Some of the possible names after the jump

Colorado has a deep Democratic bench, and as Ken was the most prominent Hispanic official in the state, there will be significant pressure on Gov. Bill Ritter to appoint a Hispanic replacement. Here’s a quick look at all the possible replacements, though:

Lt. Gov. Barbara O’Brien: A former nonprofit executive, O’Brien hadn’t held elective office before 2006, and would be unlikely to get the appointment, though she and Ritter seem quite close.

Treasurer Cary Kenendy: Young, photogenic and having won statewide office in 2006 against a solid Republican, Cary Kenendy is probably the easiest choice Ritter could make. She seems to like her current job though, and has two young children, which may make her unlikely to start the commute to and from DC.

Former Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff: Another young, progressive,  popular Democrat who was just term-limited out of the House this year. He is currently applying to fill the now-vacant Secretary of State position, so openly looking for this appointment could smack of opportunism. Romanoff is one of the most effective and popular pols in Colorado, though, and could hold the seat against strong Republicans.

Rep. John Salazar: A non-starter, though people think he’d jump at the chance. His recent ascension to the Appropriations Committee would make becoming a junior Senator unappealling. He’s staying put in his right-leaning district.

State Rep. Alice Madden: A popular woman in the statehouse, Alice is a talented politician, but this too seems like a nonstarter. A purple state like Colorado wouldn’t accept having two Democrats from Boulder as its Senators.

State Sen. Peter Groff: The President of the Senate, and the most prominent black politician in Colorado. A relative moderate for a pol from Denver, he’d be a compelling choice, but would have a tough race in 2010.

Former State Sen. Polly Baca: Was talked up for lots of races in Colorado in the 1990’s, but never went for any of them. Would be the first Hispanic woman in the Senate, and would have strong institutional backing. She’d most likely be a placeholder though, as she’s getting older, and may not want to run a constant campaign for the next 2 years.

State Sen. John Morse: A Democrat from Colorado Springs, and a bright guy, John might be a good compromise choice if Ritter can’t quite decide on anyone. He’s a moderate, gets a ton of stuff done in the House, and doesn’t seem to have many enemies on either side of the aisle.

Thoughts? Additions? Dream Candidates?