Month: February 2009

Everyone thinks they’re Christopher Columbus nowadays:

It’s official: Meg Whitman, the former chief executive of eBay, is planning to run for governor of California.

She announced on Monday that she had formed an exploratory committee, the first step in seeking the Republican nomination for governor in the 2010 race. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger faces term limits and cannot run for re-election, leaving the field wide open for one of the nation’s most powerful governorships.

She’s lining up some heavy hitters in her corner, too:

She also announced that former California Gov. Pete Wilson would serve as the chairman of the campaign while Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.) will serve as co-chairs.

On the staff side, Whitman has attracted high level talent — reflective of the national profile of California races not to mention Whitman’s significant personal wealth — that borrows from a number of the GOP presidential campaigns of 2008 including those of Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Question #1 is whether she can escape a GOP primary with conservative jillionaire state Insurance Comm’r Steve Poizner. Whitman, of course, is worth a fortune, too. Should be a good fight.

This would be a pretty big coup for John Cornyn:

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) is contemplating a challenge to Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) in 2010, as Republicans appear to be telegraphing that they plan to target the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs chairman for defeat.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) met with Simmons to discuss a potential bid a few weeks ago while the former Congressman was in town for the Republican National Committee winter meeting, according to a knowledgeable source. Simmons, however, has not yet made any commitments to the NRSC.

“Congressman Simmons would be a very strong candidate in this race, particularly when ethics and the economy will be two of the biggest issues in 2010,” NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said. “That said, it’s our understanding that he’s still examining his options as are other potential candidates.”

Simmons, who was knocked off by Democrat Joe Courtney in an extremely close race in 2006, is already testing out some attacks against Dodd:

“I am currently looking around for opportunities to be of service,” Simmons said. “As you know, I’ve got a fairly substantial background in public service and I’m currently just looking around, if you will, exploring possibilities to see what looks good.”

Although Simmons was coy about 2010, he touted his service as an aide to former Sens. John Chafee (R-R.I.) and Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) as proof of his ability to straddle the spectrum of the Republican Party. Simmons was also fast to criticize Dodd for not foreseeing the economic crisis as chairman of the Banking panel, as well as not disclosing the details of a well-publicized deal he got on a mortgage for his home.

“Sen. Dodd has disappointed a lot of his supporters up here in Connecticut with his activities over the last several years,” Simmons said. “He left the state, moved to Iowa, to pursue what turned out to be a frivolous attempt to run for president of the United States of America.”

If Simmons goes for it, this race could conceivably get pretty interesting. The latest polling (Quinnipiac, December 2008) hasn’t exactly been kind to Dodd the Bod — his approval rating is limping along at 47-41, and his re-elects are in even worse shape: only 44% say that they’ll vote to re-elect the incumbent in 2010, while 47% say that they’ll go with someone else.

There’s no question that Simmons would have to run one hell of a race in order to win in this bright blue state, but the path for him is available if he decides to take a crack against an incumbent who voters seem to be getting at least somewhat tired of.

Alexi Giannoulias, Illinois state treasurer, upset the incumbent in 2006 after being endorsed by Barack Obama met with Dick Durbin in Washington recently to discuss a potential senate bid.  Giannoulias also has the ability to self fund, being the former vice president of a bank.  

Giannoulias was in DC again last week to meet with potential campaign staff, fundraisers, etc. He also met with US Sen. Dick Durbin, who said yesterday that Giannoulias would be a “formidable” candidate if he runs. Giannoulias is clearly gearing up for a Senate bid.

http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2…

In Ohio, Lt. Governor Fisher is all but in and will likely announce in the next 45 days.  

The quick entry of former Congressman Rob Portman into the contest for George Voinovich’s seat turned the heat up on everyone else in the kitchen, Fisher included. He said his answer will come in the next 45 days-maybe soon, maybe not-but it will be based on the first two of what he believes are the three reasons a candidate runs : personal, professional, and political. Fisher says this isn’t a run for his own gratification, but rather another way to help Governor Strickland and Senator Brown bring good paying jobs back to Ohio.

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/c…

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Former State Treasurer of Missouri Sarah Steelman is also all but in, for Missouri’s senate race, ensuing, she is expected to cause collateral damage in a primary with Washington’s favorite Blunt.

Two Republican sources close to Steelman say after weeks of laying the groundwork, Steelman is “very, very likely” going to run for outgoing Sen. Kit Bond’s seat.

“She is continuing to meet with people across the state. She’s being encouraged by many supporters to run. She has had some great meetings in D.C. and around the state,” says one source. “Her message is about reform, transparency and accountability in government. That message is relevant now more than ever before.”

http://ky3.blogspot.com/2009/0…

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Tiarht’s (KS-04) R+12 district probably won’t be very competitive in the general election, but that doesn’t make the primary uninteresting!  First into the ring, State Senator Dick Kelsey.  

Kansas Sen. Dick Kelsey, R-Goddard, announced Friday that he will run for the 4th Congressional District seat being vacated by Todd Tiahrt.

Kelsey, the first candidate to officially announce he is seeking the office, made his plans known before about 100 supporters during a news conference at the Wichita Independent Business Association.

http://www.kansas.com/news/sta…

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In Virginia’s Democratic primary for Governor, Former state delegate Brian Moran turned on the offense against McCauliffe in front of Bill Clinton at the Democratic party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, trying to turn his financial advantage into a negative.  

At the Democratic Party of Virginia’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner  on Saturday, McAuliffe got an earful from former House member Brian Moran, who implied that the onetime DNC chairman is trying to buy the governor’s mansion by tapping his rolodex of national donors.

“We must decide what our party stands for,” Moran told the audience of activists in Richmond. “Will our party be dominated by big money and those who raise it, or will we be the party of the people?”

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…  

Arlen Specter has his first confirmed challenger for 2010, but it’s not Allyson Schwartz or Patrick Murphy (the two names you usually see associated with this race): it’s Joe Torsella. He hasn’t held elective office before, but he’s a local mover and shaker in Philadelphia: he was, until very recently, CEO of the National Constitution Center, and before that, Ed Rendell’s deputy mayor.

Torsella’s interest in the Senate seat has always struck me as being a little above his pay grade (his only run for office was the primary for the open seat in PA-13 in 2004, which he lost to Schwartz; he was also reportedly wooed for the PA-06 candidacy in 2008). He does have one huge asset in his corner, though: Governor Ed Rendell. With Rendell having given no indication of interest in the Senate, Torsella is basically running as a Rendell proxy, and should have access to all the levers of Rendell’s machinery. Time will tell whether that will be enough to overcome the better-known Schwartz (and/or Murphy) in the primary, though.

This suddenly makes Phil Bredesen not sound so bad

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was very near the top of President Barack Obama’s list of candidates to head the Health and Human Services Department, a senior administration official said Saturday.

The source, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private administration deliberations, said no decision was imminent. But the official added the former Kansas insurance commissioner was rising as Obama considers prospective candidates.

Now, Sebelius would certainly be qualified for the job, but this raises two important questions:

1. I thought the whole point of picking Daschle was to get someone who knew their way around the halls of congress. Unless Obama plans to enact his healthcare legislation by executive fiat a la Blago (and look at how well that turned out for him), it’s going to be essential that things with those blowhards in congress go as smoothly as possible.

2. Uh, hello, whose going to run for Sam Brownback’s senate seat? She’s probably not seriously interested in being a Senator if she takes this job, but it’s not as if she wouldn’t be able to be convinced as long as she’s not just starting a new job.

How about something a bit different this week in addition to our usual open thread chatter: let’s turn on our TVs.

What TV shows have you been watching lately, be they ones that are currently available on broadcast, or stuff from the archives that you’ve been checking out on DVD or online?

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Jim Tedisco (2/3-4, registered voters):

Scott Murphy (D): 29

Jim Tedisco (R): 50

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-20 was always going to be a tough hold, despite the fact that it narrowly went for Obama over McCain, because of its historically Republican nature (as seen in the GOP registration advantage and the utter lack of a convincing Democratic bench). Although this is an internal poll from Tedisco’s camp, it pretty clearly shows what kind of a hole we’re starting in.

Complicating matters is the name recognition factor: Tedisco, as Assembly Minority Leader and someone with deep roots in nearby NY-21, sports a 51% favorable/13% unfavorable rating, while local businessman Scott Murphy has never held office before. Murphy’s one advantage is self-funding: he’s already amassed $600,000 cash on hand, including a $250,000 loan from himself. Which is good… if Murphy’s going to be competitive in this race, in the face of a relatively short timeframe, it’s going to have to be through a lot of paid media.

Rasmussen (2/4, likely voters, 12/4 in parentheses):

Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (39)

Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (39)

Some other candidate: 6 (4)

Brian Moran (D): 36 (41)

Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (37)

Some other candidate: 4 (5)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (36)

Robert McDonnell (R): 42 (41)

Some other candidate: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor’s race a second time, meaning we now have trendlines… and, frankly, they don’t look very appetizing. Ex-Del. Brian Moran led AG Robert McDonnell last time by 4, but now he’s trailing by 3, while Del. Creigh Deeds fell from a tie to a 9-point deficit.

Part of the problem here may be that, while McDonnell has long since consolidated Republican support, the three Dem contenders are in primary attack mode, driving their numbers down as they target each other. The numbers in the McAuliffe/McDonnell matchup don’t seem to have budged much, which suggests that McAuliffe may be doing the best job right now of the three of getting his message into the media… although that still doesn’t seem to translate into a good performance in the general matchup.

UPDATE (James L.): Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen weighs in:

I think the answer here is in the timing of the poll being conducted. It was done Wednesday night. McDonnell resigned as Attorney General Tuesday and that was all over local tv news casts Tuesday, and then all over the state’s newspapers on Wednesday. That level of exposure is unusual for a 24 hour media cycle this far out from November, and I bet it helped McDonnell to lead in the poll. I certainly don’t think there was any nefarious intent in the timing of the poll but that sort of thing does have an impact.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/2-4, registered voters):

Kathleen Sebelius (D): 47

Todd Tiahrt (R): 37

Kathleen Sebelius (D): 48

Jerry Moran (R): 36

(MoE: ±4%)

Todd Tiahrt (R): 24

Jerry Moran (R): 19

Undecided: 57

(MoE: ±5%)

The race for the open Senate seat in Kansas looks to be Kathleen Sebelius’s for the taking, if she would just show up (and hopefully these numbers will pique her interest). Research 2000 finds that the Kansas governor leads both of her potential candidates by a double-digit margin. If anyone can break the sixty-plus years of Republicans having a lock on the Kansas senate seats, it’s her.

There’s one sort of generalized caveat here, though: Sebelius isn’t over the 50% mark here, and yet she’s extremely well-known (with a 56% favorable/37% unfavorable, almost everyone has an opinion of her), leaving me to wonder where that last few percent to put her over the top in this dark-red state are going to come from. With both Reps. Tiahrt and Moran much less-known (check out the undecided numbers on their primary), they seem to have the room to expand. While you can’t deny that Sebelius is in the driver’s seat here, this looks to be a much closer race in Nov. 2010 than the current gaudy numbers indicate. (Discussion is already well underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)