Month: February 2009

ND-Sen: Dorgan Thumps Hoeven

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/9-11, registered voters):

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 57

John Hoeven (R): 35

(MoE: ±4%)

Conventional wisdom seems to dictate that in the 2010 North Dakota senate race, Byron Dorgan is safe despite North Dakota’s red-state status… unless popular Republican governor John Hoeven runs, in which case we’d have an epic battle. There’s been no indication, however, that Hoeven intends to run, and based on R2K’s first poll of this race, he may not want to bother.

Despite the fact that he’s just as well-known and popular as Dorgan (Hoeven’s favorables are 68/27, while Dorgan’s are 67/30), Hoeven loses by a substantial margin, losing every part of the state and every demographic category except “Republicans.” As Kos speculates, North Dakotans, like other small-staters (consider Alaskans’ attachment to Ted Stevens), know well how linked their local economy is to federal appropriations, and seem unwilling to trade in Dorgan’s decades of seniority and powerful committee posts.

test

LA-02 Cao        D+24.0

DE-AL Castle     D+7.0

IL-10 Kirk       D+6.2  

PA-06 Gerlach    D+3.8

WA-08 Reichert   D+3.2

PA-15 Dent       D+2.0

NJ-02 Lobiondo   D+0.9

IL-06 Roskam     D+0.4

OH-12 Tiberi     D+0.2

IA-04 Latham     D+0.1

MI-11 McCotter   R+0.4

MN-03 Paulsen    R+0.4

MI-06 Upton      R+0.6

FL-10 Young      R+0.8  

NY-23 McHugh     R+1.0

IL-13 Biggert    R+1.4

MI-08 Rogers     R+1.7

NJ-07 Lance      R+1.9

IL-16 Manzullo   R+2.0

WI-01 Ryan       R+2.1

VA-10 Wolf          R+2.3

OH-14 LaTourette    R+2.8

FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen  R+2.9

CA-50 Bilbray       R+3.1

CA-26 Dreier        R+3.2    

CA-45 Bono          R+3.4

MI-04 Camp          R+3.5

NY-03 King          R+3.6

CA-24 Gallegly      R+3.8

MN-02 Kline         R+3.9

VA-04 Forbes        R+4.4

OH-03 Turner        R+4.5

WI-06 Petri         R+4.5

FL-16 Rooney        R+4.6

FL-25 Diaz-Balart   R+4.7

MI-10 Miller        R+5.1 *

FL-21 Diaz-Balart   R+5.3

Il-18 Schock        R+5.3 *

NV-02 Heller        R+5.4

CA-03 Lungren       R+5.4 *

FL-13 Buchanan      R+5.5

CA-46 Rohrabacher   R+5.7

CA-48 Campbell      R+5.7

Fl-15 Posey         R+5.7

NY-26 Lee           R+5.8

FL-12 Putnam        R+5.8

CA-25 McKeon        R+5.8

NJ-04 Smith         R+5.8

CA-44 Calvert       R+5.9

PA-18 Murphy        R+6.2

Most vulnerable Dems

TX-17   R+19

MS-04   R+19

ID-04   R+17

AL-02   R+16

UT-02   R+14

MO-04   R+14

MS-01   R+13

OK-02   R+13

Al-05   R+12

LA-03   R+12

TN-04   R+12

TN-06   R+12

MD-01   R+12

VA-09   R+11

GA-08   R+10

WV-01   R+9

ND-AL   R+9

SD-AL   R+8

IN-08   R+8

PA-10   R+8

KY-06   R+8

SC-05   R+7

NC-11   R+6

PA-17   R+6

OH-18   R+6

WV-03   R+6

AR-04   R+6

TN-08   R+5

MN-05   R+5

FL-02   R+5

NC-07   R+5

IN-09   R+5

AZ-05  R+5

PA-04  R+5

AR-01  R+5

AR-02  R+5

NY-29  R+5

CO-04  R+5

VA-05  R+5

NM-02  R+5

AZ-01  R+5

FL-24  R+5

A Side-by-Side Comparison of the Democratic and Republican members of Congress.

I was curious about the stats of the Congressional Ds and Rs, so I compiled this list of demographic statistics of the House, with the Senate thrown in also, using gender, race/ethnicity, and religion as well as the 3 openly gay members of the House. I got as much information as I could from Google and Wikipedia.

House Democrats

Female (57) – Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Shelley Berkley, Corrine Brown, Lois Capps, Kathy Castor, Yvette Clarke, Kathy Dahlkemper, Susan Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Donna Edwards, Anna Eshoo, Marcia Fudge, Gabrielle Giffords, Debbie Halvorson, Jane Harman, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Mazie Hirono, Sheila Jackson-Lee, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Marcy Kaptur, Carolyn Kilpatrick, Mary Jo Kilroy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Suzanne Kosmas, Barbara Lee, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Carolyn McCarthy, Betsy Markey, Doris Matsui, Betty McCollum, Gwen Moore, Grace Napolitano, Nancy Pelosi, Chellie Pingree, Laura Richardson, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Linda Sanchez, Loretta Sanchez, Jan Schakowsky, Allyson Schwartz, Carole Shea-Porter, Louise McIntosh Slaughter, Hilda Solis (until she is confirmed as Labor Secretary), Jackie Speier, Betty Sutton, Ellen Tauscher, Dina Titus, Niki Tsongas, Nydia Velazquez, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Maxine Waters, Diane Watson, Lynn Woolsey

Black (38) – Sanford Bishop, Corrine Brown, G.K. Butterfield, Andre Carson, Yvette Clarke, William Lacy Clay Jr., Emanuel Cleaver, Jim Clyburn, John Conyers, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Danny Davis, Donna Edwards, Keith Ellison, Chaka Fattah, Marcia Fudge, Al Green, Alcee Hastings, Jesse Jackson Jr., Sheila Jackson-Lee, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Hank Johnson, Carolyn Kilpatrick, Barbara Lee, John Lewis, Kendrick Meek, Gregory Meeks, Gwen Moore, Don Payne, Charles Rangel, Laura Richardson, Bobby Rush, David Scott, Bennie Thompson, Ed Towns, Maxine Waters, Diane Watson, Mel Watt

Hispanic (21) – Joe Baca, Xavier Becerra, Henry Cuellar, Charlie Gonzalez, Raul Grijalva, Luis Gutierrez, Ruben Hinojosa, Ben Ray Luján, Grace Napolitano, Solomon Ortiz, Ed Pastor, Silvestre Reyes, Ciro Rodriguez, Lucille Roybal-Allard, John Salazar, Linda Sanchez, Loretta Sanchez, Jose Serrano, Albio Sires, Hilda Solis (until she is confirmed as Labor Secretary), Nydia Velazquez

Asian (4) – Mazie Hirono, Mike Honda, Doris Matsui, David Wu

Mixed (1) – Robert Scott (Black-Filipino)

Total Non-White (64)

Jewish (30) – Gary Ackerman, John Adler, Shelley Berkley, Howard Berman, Steve Cohen, Susan Davis, Eliot Engel, Barney Frank, Bob Filner, Gabrielle Giffords, Alan Grayson, Jane Harman, Paul Hodes, Steve Israel, Steve Kagen, Ron Klein, Sander Levin, Nita Lowey, Jared Polis, Jerrold Nadler, Steve Rothman, Jan Schakowsky, Adam Schiff, Allyson Schwartz, Brad Sherman, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Henry Waxman, Anthony Weiner, Robert Wexler, John Yarmuth

Muslim (2) – Andre Carson, Keith Ellison

Buddhist (2) – Mazie Hirono, Hank Johnson

Unitarian (1) – Walter Minnick

Atheist (1) – Pete Stark

Total Non-Christian (36)

Mormon (2): Leonard Boswell (RLDS), Jim Matheson (LDS)

Openly gay (3): Tammy Baldwin, Barney Frank, Jared Polis

House Republicans

Female (17) – Michele Bachmann, Judy Biggert, Marsha Blackburn, Mary Bono Mack, Ginny Brown-Waite, Shelley Capito, Jo Ann Emerson, Mary Fallin, Virginia Foxx, Kay Granger, Lynn Jenkins, Cynthia Lummis, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Candice Miller, Sue Myrick, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Jean Schmidt

Hispanic (4) – Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Diaz-Balart, Trent Franks, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

Asian (2) – Steve Austria, Joseph Cao

Native American (1) – Tom Cole

Total Non-White (7)

Jewish (1) – Eric Cantor

Total Non-Christian (1)

Mormon (7): Rob Bishop, Jason Chaffetz, Jeff Flake, Dean Heller, Wally Herger, Buck McKeon, Mike Simpson

Christian Scientist (3): David Dreier, Bob Goodlatte, Lamar Smith

Senate Democrats

Female (13): Barbara Boxer, Maria Cantwell, Dianne Feinstein, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kay Hagan, Amy Klobuchar, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Barbara Mikulski, Patty Murray, Jeanne Shaheen, Debbie Stabenow

Black (1): Roland Burris

Hispanic (1): Robert Menendez

Asian (1): Daniel Inouye

Mixed (1): Daniel Akaka (Chinese-Hawaiian)

Total Non-White (4)

Jewish (13): Michael Bennet, Barbara Boxer, Ben Cardin, Russ Feingold, Dianne Feinstein, Al Franken*, Herb Kohl, Frank Lautenberg, Carl Levin, Joe Lieberman, Bernie Sanders, Chuck Schumer, Ron Wyden

Unitarian Universalist (1): Kent Conrad

Total Non-Christian (14)

Mormon (2): Harry Reid, Tom Udall

Senate Republicans

Female (4): Susan Collins, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe

Hispanic (1): Mel Martinez

Jewish (1): Arlen Specter

Mormon (3): Robert Bennett, Mike Crapo, Orrin Hatch

Now that I have the raw numbers, I can calculate the percentages of each party in each house that are non-white and non-Christian.

House Democrats

Percent female: 57/257 = 22.2%

Percent non-white: 64/257 = 24.9%

Percent non-Christian: 36/257 = 14.0%

House Republicans

Percent female: 17/178 = 9.6%

Percent non-white: 7/178 = 3.9%

Percent non-Christian: 1/178 = 0.6%

Senate Democrats

Percent female: 13/59 = 22.0%

Percent non-white: 4/59 = 6.8%

Percent non-Christian (if Franken is seated): 14/59 = 23.7%

Senate Republicans

Percent female: 4/41 = 9.8%

Percent non-white: 1/41 = 2.4%

Percent non-Christian: 1/41 = 2.4%

And now, combining the Senate and House:

Democrats

Percent female: 70/316 = 22.2%

Percent non-white: 68/316 = 21.5%

Percent non-Christian: 50/316 = 15.8%

Republicans

Percent female: 21/219 = 9.6%

Percent non-white: 8/219 = 3.7%

Percent non-Christian: 2/219 = 0.9%

Just for fun, let’s compare these numbers to the U.S. at large. I know these numbers are not perfect because some races/religions are much better represented than others as we discussed earlier.

U.S. as a whole ( https://www.cia.gov/library/pu… )

Percent female: 50.8%

Percent non-white: 35.1%

Percent non-Christian: 21.5%

Can you guess which party better represents America?

NH-Sen: Judd Gregg Withdraws Cabinet Nomination, Won’t Run in 2010

Wow:

Republican Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire has withdrawn his nomination to become President Barack Obama’s commerce secretary.

In a statement released by his office, the New Hampshire senator cites “irresolvable conflicts” on issues including the economic stimulus package.

I wonder if these “irresolvable conflicts” included the humiliation of being stripped of authority over the 2010 Census.

So Gregg goes back to the Senate (he never left). Does this mean he’ll run again in 2010? There had been a considerable amount of doubt about that point for a while before his Cabinet nomination, and his initial acceptance of the Cabinet slot seemed to confirm that he was losing interest in his Senate career.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup, but we are monitoring Gregg’s re-elections plans closely and will update our ratings if need be.

(Hat-tip: Cheekster)

UPDATE: First Read and the Union Leader both confirm that Gregg won’t run for another term in 2010. (Hat-tips: LeftistAddiction and omarka)

FL-Sen: Strategic Vision Polls the Race

Strategic Vision (R) has a new poll of the Florida Senate race, with some different names being polled than past polls.  The poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 6-8, 2009. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

2010 Senate Democratic Primary

Ron Klein 12%

Kendrick Meek 10%

Pam Iorio 8%

Dan Gelber 4%

Undecided 66%

2010 Senate Republican Primary with Crist

Charlie Crist 54%

Connie Mack IV 16%

Vern Buchanan 10%

Alan Bense 7%

Marco Rubio 4%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate Republican Primary without Crist

Connie Mack IV 21%

Vern Buchanan 11%

Alan Bense 8%

Marco Rubio 5%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate General Election

Crist 58%, Klein 24%

Crist 60%, Meek 26%

Crist 57%, Iorio 29%

Crist 58%, Gelber 27%

Mack 32%, Klein 27%

Mack 35%, Meek 25%

Mack 32%, Iorio 30%

Mack 33%, Gelber 20%

Buchanan 24%, Klein 28%

Buchanan 29%, Meek 23%

Buchanan 26%, Iorio 30%

Buchanan 23%, Gelber 20%

Bense 22%, Klein 27%

Bense 28%, Meek 21%

Bense 24%, Iorio 30%

Bense 27%, Gelber 25%

Rubio 18%, Klein 29%

Rubio 26%, Meek 24%

Rubio 19%, Iorio 32%

Rubio 22%, Gelber 17%

Not sure if this poll tells us too much.  Clearly, Crist dominates if he runs.  If he doesn’t, then the race is wide open.

Among the Democrats, Iorio consistently polled best in the general election match-ups, followed by Klein, then Meek, with Gelber last.  Of course, there are huge numbers of undecideds, so it’s impossible to say who would be the strongest general election candidate for the Democrats this far out.  When the primary is this open, I hope the DSCC stays out, as I think the strongest candidate tends to emerge from the primary.

IA-Gov, IA-05: King Considers Gube Bid

Callin’ out around the world, are you ready for a brand new beat?

Rep. Steve King (R) is looking at a bid for governor in 2010, according to multiple local news sources. On a weekly public TV show taping this week, King said he was not sure whether he would challenge Gov. Chet Culver (D) but was looking at his options.

“There’s a duty for me, I think. I’ve made no decisions,” King said on the program, according to the Associated Press. “It would be constructive for me at this point to say that the most important job right now is to bring together and reunify the Republican Party in this state.”

Summer’s here and the time is right for dancin’ in the streets!

Fun fact: John McCain carried King’s 5th CD by a 54-44 margin last November.

FL-02: Lawson Will Run

State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson is now making it known that he will indeed challenge Rep. Allen Boyd in the 2010 Democratic primary:

Lawson, an insurance agent who has represented Tallahassee in the Legislature since 1982, said today he intends next year to take on Congressman Allen Boyd, a Democrat from Monticello.

The primary will be bruising, with the nation’s economic crisis front and center. […]

Lawson has come out of the gate swinging, accusing Boyd of forgetting his struggling constituents.

Boyd voted in favor of a $700 billion taxpayer rescue of the nation’s troubled financial industry that was first proposed by former President George W. Bush. Boyd joined most Republicans in Congress in voting against a more than $800 billion economic stimulus package being pushed hard by the new administration of President Barack Obama.

Congress is still negotiating a final package.

“He’s putting Wall Street ahead of Main Street, and there’s something wrong with that,” Lawson said. “Most of that district is rural and the people need help.”

Before you get too excited, though, let’s not forget that Lawson “almost” endorsed Charlie Crist in 2006 — not exactly the behavior of a progressive firebrand.

(Hat-tip: The Briefing Room)

NH-Sen: Hodes Narrowly Leads Sununu and Bass, CSP Competitive

Public Policy Polling (2/6-8, registered voters):

Paul Hodes (D): 40

Charlie Bass (R): 37

Paul Hodes (D): 46

John Sununu (R): 44

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 42

Charlie Bass (R): 43

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 45

John Sununu (R): 46

(MoE: ±2.7%)

While all the matchups tested here by our friends at PPP are well within the margin of error, Hodes starts off the 2010 Senate race in the best shape — indeed, he even has more room to grow than Shea-Porter does. A full 24% of voters have no opinion of Hodes, while only 17% of voters don’t know enough about CSP to give an opinion.

Sununu has near-universal name recognition, which is hardly a surprise given his recent humiliating defeat at the polls, but that suggests that his numbers here may be something of a high water mark. Bass, on the other hand, has the least name recognition of the bunch, and those who do know him don’t seem to care for him all that much — his favorability score clocks in at 33-37. I’d be pretty surprised if the Bassmaster threw his hat into the ring.