Month: August 2009

A major bullet dodged for Larry Kissell:

A rendezvous at a Concord barbecue joint Tuesday helped change the political outlook in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District.

Former Republican U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory met to talk about next year’s House race. As the two sipped Diet Cokes, Hayes asked McCrory the question he’d asked before: Would the mayor run?

No, McCrory replied.

“It was obvious that he wasn’t going to do it now,” Hayes said, “so I needed to get out of the way and let the primary develop so we can win the general election.”

McCrory is staying publicly mum for now, but the Charlotte Observer reports that he’s told “party insiders” not to expect a race out of him. McCrory likely would have been the strongest possible candidate the GOP could cough up here, but it looks like it’s back to the drawing board for the NRCC.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08

As we all know, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley has been cozying up to the teabagger crowd and saying some truly bizarre things of late (though for the record, I do not believe he has dementia). Those comments could make Grassley vulnerable in a state which Barack Obama carried by 10 percent of the vote. Grassley was only leading former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack by four points a few months ago, so I don’t buy that he’s unbeatable. Right now this race is flying under the radar, but I think it has dark horse potential.

There have been rumors of a significant player entering the race, with speculation focusing on 1st District Congressman Bruce Braley.

So, onto our candidate bench. One note though: I think that Iowa is one of those states where voters intrinsically know the value of seniority, and would have a hard time electing someone who wasn’t going to be there for a good long while. On the other hand, this is almost certainly Grassley’s last run for office either way, so it might not be as much of a disqualifier as usual.

On paper, my opinion is that the strongest Democratic candidate for the seat would have to be Braley, who represents the 1st Congressional District, based in Northeastern Iowa. While Obama carried it with 58% of the vote, before Braley it was held by Republican Jim Nussle. Braley is about the perfect age (51) to be viable as a long term replacement for Grassley, and he’d almost certainly be able to raise the requisite dough for such a run.

I’m not quite sure who the next best choice is though; former Congressman Mike Blouin would be perfect if he were about five years younger.

As I’m not well tuned into Iowa’s Dem bench, I did some research and came up with the following possibilities:

-Frank Cownie:Very popular Mayor of Des Moines, just young enough (60) to be viable from that standpoint. Comes from a swingier part of the state than Braley does.

-Michael Mauro: Iowa’s current Secretary of State, also 60, also hails from Polk County (Des Moines)

-Patrick Murphy: Current Speaker of the Iowa House, represents Dubuque. Young, at age 49, though came under criticism for his management of the House chamber.

-Kevin McCarthy: Current Iowa House Majority leader.

I’d love to hear the perspective of someone who’s plugged into the Iowa political scene as to who they’d think would have a good shot at the seat.

• CO-04: When asked whether or not he believes if Barack Obama was born in the United States at a recent town hall meeting, Republican Cory Gardner, running against frosh Dem Rep. Betsy Markey, walked a delicate line in front of his mouth-breathing audience, but did drop this golden nugget: “I think the administration is trying to say he was born in this country”.

• CT-04: I believe we can now label the ever-growing list of Republicans challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Jim Himes as a “posse”. In addition to previously-announced candidates state Sen. Dan Debicella, former state Sen. Bob Russo, and 24 year-old Will Gregory, Norwalk businessman Rob Merkle is joining the field. Merkle, who has no elected experience, thinks that the economy and the healthcare crisis will fix themselves as long as the government practices some gosh-darned fiscal restraint. In other words, Chris Shays he is not.

• FL-Sen: Ex-GOP Rep. Mike Bilirakis says that he’d gladly serve as a Senate placeholder if Crist was interested in tapping him, but he’s also very displeased with Mel Martinez’s quitting ways.

• KY-Sen: It’s Moneybomb! day for Rand Paul, who’s running surprisingly close to GOP candidate Trey Grayson in the polls. His supporters have raised $100K overnight, and he’s hoping to grow that total to a cool million by the end of the day. You can watch the tally online here.

• NH-Sen: Feel free to trust this poll as far as you can chuck it. Populus Research, polling for the conservative NowHampshire.com, finds Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Paul Hodes by a 51-49 margin. Yes, that’s right — no undecideds. On the generic ballot, Dems edge Republicans by 51-48 for the seat, with a whopping 2% undecided. And just when you thought that they couldn’t get any worse than UNH and ARG…

• NH-02: Most Democrats hoping to succeed Paul Hodes in the House have been keeping their powder dry, with attorney Ann McLane Kuster being the only declared candidate so far. That changed today with the entry of state Rep. John DeJoie, a Concord firefighter, into the race. The field is expected to grow again at some point in the future with the entry of Katrina Swett and possibly Executive Councilor Deb Pignatelli or her husband, Mike.

• NV-Sen: Disgraced GOP Sen. John Ensign again reiterated yesterday that he won’t resign in the wake of revelations that his parents paid off his mistress’s family with $96,000 worth of hush money. Oh, and he’s also still refusing to answer any questions about the money, either. At the same time, Ensign says that you can’t accuse him of hypocrisy based of his vote to impeach Bill Clinton, because he, unlike Clinton, did “nothing legally wrong”.

• NV-03: Here’s a nice bit of oppo research just hurled by the Nevada Democratic Party at recently-announced Dina Titus challenger John Guedry. Guedry, a banker, began his campaign by railing against out-of-control spending. What he didn’t mention, though, is that his bank, City National, received $400 million worth of TARP funds in 2008… just as City National cut Guedry a check for his annual bonus.

• PA-Gov: Things are starting to get pretty testy in the Republican gubernatorial primary in the Keystone State. Jim Gerlach, the decided underdog in the race, has called on Attorney General Tom Corbett to either resign his office or drop out of the race. Gerlach is calling out Corbett, the man in charge of the Bonusgate investigation that has so far mostly hit Democratic lawmakers, as having a conflict of interest due to the fact that he’s investigating GOP legislators while at the same time seeking their endorsements for his gubernatorial bid. Gee, I don’t see how that could ever lead to any problems…

Meanwhile, for the Democratic nomination, Montgomery County Commissioner/ex-Rep/’04 Senate candidate Joe Hoeffel says that he’s going to poll the race to test his strength in a possible bid.

• VA-09: Confirming rumors that spread through the tubes on Tuesday, Republican state Del. Terry Kilgore, the twin brother of ex-state AG/’05 GOP gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore (quick tip: Terry’s the one with the ‘stache), said yesterday that he has, in fact, been in contact with the Eric Cantor and Pete Sessions about a run against longtime Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher in this R+11 southwestern Virginia district. Kilgore would probably give Boucher the race of his life if he ran, but he’s sounding noncommittal for now. Kilgore says that he generally likes Boucher, but his recent vote for the cap-and-trade bill left him sour. A decision will come after the Viriginia gubernatorial election later this year.

Boston Globe:

Senator Edward M. Kennedy, in a poignant acknowledgment of his mortality at a critical time in the national health care debate, has privately asked the governor and legislative leaders to change the succession law to guarantee that Massachusetts will not lack a Senate vote when his seat becomes vacant.

In a personal, sometimes wistful letter sent Tuesday to Governor Deval L. Patrick, Senate President Therese Murray, and House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo, Kennedy asks that Patrick be given authority to appoint someone to the seat temporarily before voters choose a new senator in a special election. […]

In his letter, which was obtained by the Globe, Kennedy said that he backs the current succession law, enacted in 2004, which gives voters the power to fill a US Senate vacancy. But he said the state and country need two Massachusetts senators.

“I strongly support that law and the principle that the people should elect their senator,” Kennedy wrote. “I also believe it is vital for this Commonwealth to have two voices speaking for the needs of its citizens and two votes in the Senate during the approximately five months between a vacancy and an election.”

As it is right now, a special election would be held within five months of a Senate vacancy occurring, leaving the seat unoccupied for that interim period. That law, as you may remember, was put in place in 2004 to prevent Mitt Romney from appointing a Republican Senator to John Kerry’s seat. The Globe writes that Democrats in the Massachusetts legislature — as well as Deval Patrick himself — are not keen on tinkering with the law again, nervous about being accused of “engineering a self-serving change to help their party”. However, Kennedy’s personal appeal might have some sway.

Of course, it’s pretty sobering to even be writing a post on this subject.

(H/T: Politico)

Two polls released earlier today contain more comfortable news for Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Let’s have a look at ’em.

Rasmussen Reports (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Charlie Crist (R): 53

Marco Rubio (R): 31

Other: 5

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

31% is the strongest showing yet for Rubio in any of the public polls released to date, but we’re still far from the point where Crist would have to breaking a sweat.

General election numbers:

Charlie Crist (R): 48

Kendrick Meek (D): 29

Other: 10

Undecided: 13

Marco Rubio (R): 43

Kendrick Meek (D): 30

Other: 8

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3%)

The headline for Rasmussen’s piece says that Crist is beating potential Dem candidate Corrine Brown, too, but that head-to-head data is nowhere to be found. Either Rasmussen is holding out on us, or perhaps they’re making a reasonable assumption. As for the other poll…

Quinnipiac (8/12-17, registered voters, 6/2-7 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 55 (54)

Marco Rubio (R): 26 (23)

Undecided: 18 (21)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Quinnipiac also tested the Democratic Senate primary, but inexplicably included Congressman Ron Klein, who passed up the race months ago, in the mix. For what it’s worth, Meek leads the pack with 18%, followed by non-candidate Klein at 12%, and Brown with 9%.

And, finally, the Governor’s race:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (38)

Bill McCollum (R): 38 (34)

Undecided: 25 (25)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Sure, I’m not crazy about the trend, but I’ll take these numbers. For one, with Dems taking a bit of a national hit lately, the fact that McCollum hasn’t put more daylight between him and Sink is comforting. But more importantly, Sink has more room to grow: she has a 23-8 favorability rating, with 68% of voters counting themselves as not having heard enough to have an opinion on her. For McCollum, his net favorables are quite good (42-13), but that also means he’s more well-known (43% don’t enough enough about him). This one’s gonna be a real dogfight.

Quinnipiac didn’t release general election Senate numbers or Obama approvals in this release — the latter of which I’m quite interested in seeing. Rasmussen’s polling finds Obama with an ugly 42-57 approval rating in the state (with 47% strongly disapproving). I’d like to see how Quinnipiac’s approval testing stacks up, at least to see just how Republican-friendly Rassmussen’s sample is compared to other pollsters.

Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate since Attorney General Roy Cooper passed on the race, but he never appeared to show much interest in challenging Richard Burr. It looks like he’s giving the race a closer look after being pressed by the DSCC in recent days. From the News & Observer:

Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge said today that he is giving some thought to running against Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year.

Etheridge, a Lillington Democrat, said he has been courted by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee as a potential candidate, reports Rob Christensen.

“I’m evaluating it,” Etheridge said during a meeting Wednesday with reporters and editors at The News & Observer.

Etheridge said he met recently with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and had discussions with family members and a few key supporters. Etheridge said he hoped to make a decision by September.

Etheridge would be a pretty decent candidate for this race, though I wouldn’t relish defending his open R+2 seat — especially if the wind is blowing against us next year. Obama did actually carry Etheridge’s district by a 52-47 margin according to SSP’s Prez-by-CD analysis, but Bush won the district by eight points in 2004 and seven points when Al Gore was on the ballot.

Etheridge has a bit of money in the kitty — just shy of $900K — and has the potential to raise a bunch more from his perch on Ways and Means. This seems to be a top concern for the DSCC, as the organization hasn’t been rushing to embrace the potential candidacy of NC SoS Elaine Marshall, perhaps in part due to her fundraising difficulties during her last Senate primary campaign.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

Catching up on reading and emails from the past three weeks, I came across a link to an interesting article by Mystery Pollster:

Is Polling As We Know It Doomed?

excerpt:

… To conclude his (Jay Leve, editor and founder of SurveyUSA) talk, Leve summed up the problem. All phone polling, he said, depends on a set of assumptions:

You’re at home; you have a [home] phone; your phone has a hard-coded area code and exchange which means I know where you are; … you’re waiting for your phone to ring; when it rings you’ll answer it; it’s OK for me to interrupt you; you’re happy to talk to me; whatever you’re doing is less important than talking to me; and I won’t take no for an answer — I’m going to keep calling back until you talk to me.

The current reality, he said, is often much different:

In fact, you don’t have a home phone; your number can ring anywhere in the world; you’re not waiting for your phone to ring; nobody calls you on the phone anyway they text you or IM you; when your phone rings you don’t answer it — your time is precious, you have competing interests, you resent calls from strangers, you’re on one or more do-not-call lists, and 20 minutes [the length of many pollsters’ interviews] is an eternity.

All of this brought Leve to a somewhat stunning bottom line: “If you look at where we are here in 2009,” for phone polling, he said, “it’s over… this is the end. Something else has got to come along.”

Also mentioned is the amazing (to me anyway) factoid that OVER 40% of 18 to 24 year olds have no landline telephone service, a near tripling in four years.

(And anecdotally, at the other end of the spectrum, an elderly (80+ years) relative of mine  is preparing to port her phone number over to cell phone, cancel the landline and go cell only (to cut costs). So this is not merely a youth trend.)

Of course, they weight the samples as best they can, but at some point the errors introduced have got to become too significant.

So after 2012, what will politians and campaign managers do with increasingly unreliable polling?

And what will us political junkies do? Will every single diary quoting a polling result get a comment to the effect that the numbers are unreliable garbage?

We sure live in interesting times.  

From the Charlotte Observer:

A day after saying his plans were “undetermined,” former U.S. Rep. Republican Robin Hayes said today he won’t run for congressional seat he lost last November.

“I’m going to do everything I can to help recruit and finance and give what experience and assistance I can to make sure that that person – and it’s not going to be me – is properly prepared,” Hayes told News 14.

This is good news for Kissell, who is not known as an energetic fundraiser (and likely will never be), in that Hayes could always be counted on to cough up a few million bucks to lend to his own campaign. I’d still expect Kissell to get a serious challenge, but it at least it will be from someone whom he can probably compete with at a more even financial level.

Outgoing Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, possibly the strongest nominee the GOP could muster here (though, he doesn’t live in the district), is still not committing to a run.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08

After Lincoln Diaz-Balart pulled the plug on his potential Senate appointment, speculation turned to the elderly Rep. Bill Young as the only other remaining choice for Crist to tap from the state’s congressional delegation for the gig. Florida GOP Chair Jim Greer recently leaked that Young was under consideration, but now Crist has made it official:

Gov. Charlie Crist’s press shop just issued an update confirming Crist has asked longtime Congressman Bill Young to apply for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez. But Rep. Young, R-Indian Shores, said earlier today that the topic of Young filling the post did not come up during a 15-minute conversation Saturday night with Gov. Crist.

Instead, the conversation, initiated by Crist, centered on what kind of person would be good for the job, Young said. Young said he told the governor the choice would reflect on Crist as he campaigns for the seat during the 2010 election cycle.

Young, though, is striking a noncommittal tone because, he claims, he’s reluctant to hang it up:

As to whether he would consider it, Young, 78, was cautious about committing.

“I don’t think I’m prepared to say yes or no,” he said. “It’s purely hypothetical.”

On the other hand, he didn’t sound like someone who would be ready to step aside for Crist at the end of the interim term.

“Anybody he appoints is going to have to understand that Charlie says he’s going to run for a full term. That’s a big issue with me,” Young said. “Am I really ready to retire at the end of the term?”

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-10

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Congressman Joe Sestak has been an unwavering voice for real health care reform.  Check out his latest diary on Daily Kos:

We have to bring health care costs down, while covering all Americans. To do this, all Americans need access to preventive care, and all health insurance providers need competition. The best way to accomplish this goal is through a strong “public health insurance option.”  A public health insurance option is a choice – a choice that is subsidized only by the co-pays and premiums of those who choose to join it – just like a private health care plan. But it is less expensive – and forces private insurance companies to lower costs because of this competition – by not having to pay CEOs $20 million salaries, or $50 million severance pay, for example.

Congressman Sestak also put together this video on health care reform, following him on the stump and on cable news, advocating for a public option.  It’s only three and a half minutes long, and I encourage you to watch the entire video:

Congressman Sestak’s leadership has seemingly been the only thing pulling recent Republican Arlen Specter to the left on key issues (emphasis added by me):

Sen. Arlen Specter just posted on his Twitter account: “People who like their current insurance ought to be able to keep it – but let’s have one more choice: a public option.”

And this comes just after his Democratic primary opponent in the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race, Rep. Joe Sestak, said Tuesday he would “find it hard” to support a health care bill without a public option.

After becoming a Democrat in April, Specter has marched to the left (he initially opposed a public option) and will likely continue to do so in the face of what could be a tough primary challenge. But will that include opposing a Senate health care bill if it lacks the public option – and if Sestak comes out opposed to it?

Specter initially opposed a public option.  Congressman Sestak is fighting for a public option.  So Specter disingenuously tacks left.  While Specter panders and postures, Congressman Sestak displays genuine conviction and real leadership.

You can support Congressman Sestak’s campaign with a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.