Tag: 2010 Senate

In my last diary, I predicted all of the Senate and Governor races for which the primaries have concluded.  I indicated that guessing at the winners of future primaries was too speculative even for me.  I have come to the conclusion, “Why the hell not?”  So here they are.  And I’m only tracking the two-way vote unless otherwise indicated (FL-GOV, FL-SEN, MA-GOV, MN-GOV, RI-GOV).

Overall I am seeing a net loss of three seats in the Senate (we lose AR, CO, DE, IN, ND, and NV, and pick up FL, KY, and MO) and one governorship (we lose IA, IL, KS, OK, PA, TN, and WY, and pick up CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, and RI).  Pickups are in bold.  Any races that are not accounted for below are in my previous diary:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

AK-SEN – Murkowski (R) 68, McAdams (D) 32 – Complete mismatch.

AZ-SEN – McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 41 – McCain consolidates Republicans.

CO-SEN – Buck (R) 53, Bennet (D) 47 – CO more conservative than most think despite Obama win.

CT-SEN – Blumenthal (D) 57, McMahon (R) 43 – Comfortable win for Blumenthal.

DE-SEN – Castle (R) 52, Coons (D) 47 – Coons grows on DE electorate, but not enough.

FL-SEN – Crist (I) 40, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 20 – Crist caucuses with Dems.

GA-SEN – Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 41 – Easy win for Isakson.

HI-SEN – Inouye (D) 67, Roco (R) 33 – No problem here.

KS-SEN – Moran (R) 62, Schollenberger (D) 38 – May be generous to Schollengerber.

LA-SEN – Vitter (R) 53, Melancon (D) 47 – Melancon is handling BP crisis well, but LA too red.

MD-SEN – Mikulski (D) 60, Wargotz (R) 40 – Comfortable win for Mikulski.

MO-SEN – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – Don’t think much of Blunt as a candidate.

NC-SEN – Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 46 – Love Marshall but this is not the year in NC.

NH-SEN – Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 44 – NH seems to love Ayotte for some reason.

NY-SEN (A) – Schumer (D) 64, Townsend (R) 35 – Routine win for Schumer.

NY-SEN (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, Malpass (R) 40 – No problem for Gillibrand.

OK-SEN – Coburn (R) unopposed

UT-SEN – Bridgewater (R) 65, Granato (D) 35 – It’s Utah.

VT-SEN – Leahy (D) 62, Britton (R) 38 – It’s Vermont.

WA-SEN – Murray (D) 52, Rossi (R) 48 – Rossi a three-time loser.

WI-SEN – Feingold (D) 53, Johnson (D) 46 – Feingold will win another tough race.

AL-GOV – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Alabama too tough this year.

AK-GOV – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 38 – Parnell very popular.

AZ-GOV – Brewer (R) 52, Goddard (D) 48 – One of the most interesting races in the country.

CO-GOV – Hickenlooper (D) 51, McInnis (R) 49 – Hickenlooper popular enough to overcome environment.

CT-GOV – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Dem lean of the state gives Lamont the edge.

FL-GOV – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 43, Chiles (I) 13 – Scott’s emergence is a gift to the Democrats.

GA-GOV – Oxendine (R) 51, Barnes (D) 48 – Barnes runs as well as you can in GA this year.

HI-GOV – Abercrombie (D) 57, Aiona (R) 43 – Either Dem should win this comfortably.

KS-GOV – Brownback (R) 60, Holland (D) 40 – Brownback a lightning rod, but will win easily.

MA-GOV – Patrick (D) 43, Baker (R) 38, Cahill (I) 17 – Patrick seems to be peeling away Cahill voters.

MD-GOV – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 48 – Huge Dem lean in Maryland has only gotten bigger.

MI-GOV – Bernero (D) 52, Hoekstra (R) 48 – Bernero is a unique, outsider candidate who can catch on.

MN-GOV – Dayton (D) 45, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 15 – Dems still have the edge in MN.

NH-GOV – Lynch (D) 55, Stephen (R) 44 – No 50-point margin for Lynch this time.

NY-GOV – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 33 – Hopefully Cuomo helps downballot candidates.

OK-GOV – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Edmondson runs as well as you can in OK this year.

RI-GOV – Caprio (D) 43, Chafee (I) 40, Robitaille (R) 17 – Caprio $$$ edge too much.

SC-GOV – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 47 – Have a feeling Haley will take more hits, but win.

TN-GOV – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 44 – TN too tough this year.

UT-GOV – Herbert (R) 67, Corroon (D) 33 – Easy win for Herbert.

VT-GOV – Dubie (R) 52, Markowitz (D) 48 – Dubie very popular up there.

WI-GOV – Barrett (D) 50.1, Walker (R) 49.9 – Good matchup between two good candidates.

WY-GOV – Micheli (R) 63, Petersen (D) 37 – Bless Petersen’s heart for running here.

I’m very pleased to let you know that Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, candidate for U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania, will join us at Senate Guru tomorrow, Thursday September 10, at 5pm Eastern Time for a live blog session.  I’m sure he will update us on how his campaign is going, discuss a variety of issues, offer his thoughts in response to tonight’s Presidential address on health care reform, and, of course, field your questions.

I hope you will be able to join us for the first candidate liveblog session of the 2010 cycle at Senate Guru.  Bring your questions for Congressman Sestak and invite your political junkie friends to join us.  (And, if you’re really excited for the conversation, support Congressman Sestak with a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.)

In the meantime, enjoy reading Congressman Sestak’s diary from yesterday at Daily Kos – here’s an excerpt:

This week, join me in signing a petition, which calls on our congressional leaders, Republicans and Democrats in the House and the Senate, to hold an up or down roll call vote on the public option.

Right now, 14,000 people are losing their health care coverage every day because our costs are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, too many politicians in Washington, who seem to be ignoring the lessons from Wall Street, would rather leave our health insurance reform up to the insurance companies.  No matter what the final bill looks like, we deserve to know how our Representatives and Senators will vote on a public option – up or down!

On the web:

Joe Sestak for Senate

Senate Guru

Senate Guru Facebook Group

Senate Guru’s Expand the Map! ActBlue Page

With the 2010 Senate races in Ohio and Kentucky featuring two of the most competitive Democratic primaries of the cycle, in two of the key Senate battleground states, Senate Guru contacted the Democratic primaries’ major candidates – in Ohio, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner; in Kentucky, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway – to ask them all one question:

Why should the progressive netroots support your campaign in you state’s 2010 Democratic Senate primary?

To see the Ohio candidates’ responses side-by-side, click here.  To see the Kentucky candidates’ responses side-by-side, click here.

On the web:

Senate Guru

Senate Guru Facebook Group

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Congressman Joe Sestak has been an unwavering voice for real health care reform.  Check out his latest diary on Daily Kos:

We have to bring health care costs down, while covering all Americans. To do this, all Americans need access to preventive care, and all health insurance providers need competition. The best way to accomplish this goal is through a strong “public health insurance option.”  A public health insurance option is a choice – a choice that is subsidized only by the co-pays and premiums of those who choose to join it – just like a private health care plan. But it is less expensive – and forces private insurance companies to lower costs because of this competition – by not having to pay CEOs $20 million salaries, or $50 million severance pay, for example.

Congressman Sestak also put together this video on health care reform, following him on the stump and on cable news, advocating for a public option.  It’s only three and a half minutes long, and I encourage you to watch the entire video:

Congressman Sestak’s leadership has seemingly been the only thing pulling recent Republican Arlen Specter to the left on key issues (emphasis added by me):

Sen. Arlen Specter just posted on his Twitter account: “People who like their current insurance ought to be able to keep it – but let’s have one more choice: a public option.”

And this comes just after his Democratic primary opponent in the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race, Rep. Joe Sestak, said Tuesday he would “find it hard” to support a health care bill without a public option.

After becoming a Democrat in April, Specter has marched to the left (he initially opposed a public option) and will likely continue to do so in the face of what could be a tough primary challenge. But will that include opposing a Senate health care bill if it lacks the public option – and if Sestak comes out opposed to it?

Specter initially opposed a public option.  Congressman Sestak is fighting for a public option.  So Specter disingenuously tacks left.  While Specter panders and postures, Congressman Sestak displays genuine conviction and real leadership.

You can support Congressman Sestak’s campaign with a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

Republican former Governor Jeb Bush, who remains a popular figure among Florida Republicans, has two sons, George P. and Jeb Jr..  Back in February, George P. Bush offered a stinging rebuke of current Gov. and 2010 Senate candidate Charlie Crist’s lack of conservative cred:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is only a “light” version of a Democrat, former Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) son claimed Saturday.

“There’s some in our party that want to assume that government is the answer to all of our problems,” Bush said at a meeting of young Republicans, as reported by the Orlando News. “You know who I’m talking about,” he added, referencing Crist.

After the speech, Bush said Crist is perhaps becoming more of a “D light” politician, not adequately in line with Republican politics.

Fast forward three months and Jeb Bush’s other son, Jeb Jr., announces his endorsement of Charlie Crist’s 2010 Republican Senate primary opponent, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio:

Today I would like to let you know that I will be enthusiastically supporting my friend Marco Rubio for his bid for the United States Senate.

Florida and our country are at a crossroads. Not only in our economic life, but in who we are as Republicans. …

With Marco, we have a great opportunity to elect a true conservative and a greater obligation to elect a man of principle. …

If you can make a donation today to keep this effort going it will go a long way to bring back common sense and a return to conservative principles in Washington.

According to Jeb Jr., Republicans are at a “crossroads” over their identity and Rubio is the only “true conservative” in the race who can return “conservative principles” to Washington.  Read: Charlie Crist does not represent the Republican Party.

I can’t imagine that these statements from Jeb’s boys go out without Daddy Jeb’s blessing.  Make no mistake, former Governor Jeb Bush does not want his gubernatorial successor to win the Republican nomination for Senate.  Further, couple the support of Jeb’s boys for Rubio with the recent endorsement of Mike Huckabee for Rubio and we see the underdog picking up steam.  Anybody rushing to anoint Charlie Crist as Florida’s next Senator better slow down.  Conservatives still run the GOP, and Charlie Crist simply isn’t up to snuff.