In my last diary, I predicted all of the Senate and Governor races for which the primaries have concluded. I indicated that guessing at the winners of future primaries was too speculative even for me. I have come to the conclusion, “Why the hell not?” So here they are. And I’m only tracking the two-way vote unless otherwise indicated (FL-GOV, FL-SEN, MA-GOV, MN-GOV, RI-GOV).
Overall I am seeing a net loss of three seats in the Senate (we lose AR, CO, DE, IN, ND, and NV, and pick up FL, KY, and MO) and one governorship (we lose IA, IL, KS, OK, PA, TN, and WY, and pick up CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, and RI). Pickups are in bold. Any races that are not accounted for below are in my previous diary:
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
AK-SEN – Murkowski (R) 68, McAdams (D) 32 – Complete mismatch.
AZ-SEN – McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 41 – McCain consolidates Republicans.
CO-SEN – Buck (R) 53, Bennet (D) 47 – CO more conservative than most think despite Obama win.
CT-SEN – Blumenthal (D) 57, McMahon (R) 43 – Comfortable win for Blumenthal.
DE-SEN – Castle (R) 52, Coons (D) 47 – Coons grows on DE electorate, but not enough.
FL-SEN – Crist (I) 40, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 20 – Crist caucuses with Dems.
GA-SEN – Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 41 – Easy win for Isakson.
HI-SEN – Inouye (D) 67, Roco (R) 33 – No problem here.
KS-SEN – Moran (R) 62, Schollenberger (D) 38 – May be generous to Schollengerber.
LA-SEN – Vitter (R) 53, Melancon (D) 47 – Melancon is handling BP crisis well, but LA too red.
MD-SEN – Mikulski (D) 60, Wargotz (R) 40 – Comfortable win for Mikulski.
MO-SEN – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – Don’t think much of Blunt as a candidate.
NC-SEN – Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 46 – Love Marshall but this is not the year in NC.
NH-SEN – Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 44 – NH seems to love Ayotte for some reason.
NY-SEN (A) – Schumer (D) 64, Townsend (R) 35 – Routine win for Schumer.
NY-SEN (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, Malpass (R) 40 – No problem for Gillibrand.
OK-SEN – Coburn (R) unopposed
UT-SEN – Bridgewater (R) 65, Granato (D) 35 – It’s Utah.
VT-SEN – Leahy (D) 62, Britton (R) 38 – It’s Vermont.
WA-SEN – Murray (D) 52, Rossi (R) 48 – Rossi a three-time loser.
WI-SEN – Feingold (D) 53, Johnson (D) 46 – Feingold will win another tough race.
AL-GOV – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Alabama too tough this year.
AK-GOV – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 38 – Parnell very popular.
AZ-GOV – Brewer (R) 52, Goddard (D) 48 – One of the most interesting races in the country.
CO-GOV – Hickenlooper (D) 51, McInnis (R) 49 – Hickenlooper popular enough to overcome environment.
CT-GOV – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Dem lean of the state gives Lamont the edge.
FL-GOV – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 43, Chiles (I) 13 – Scott’s emergence is a gift to the Democrats.
GA-GOV – Oxendine (R) 51, Barnes (D) 48 – Barnes runs as well as you can in GA this year.
HI-GOV – Abercrombie (D) 57, Aiona (R) 43 – Either Dem should win this comfortably.
KS-GOV – Brownback (R) 60, Holland (D) 40 – Brownback a lightning rod, but will win easily.
MA-GOV – Patrick (D) 43, Baker (R) 38, Cahill (I) 17 – Patrick seems to be peeling away Cahill voters.
MD-GOV – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 48 – Huge Dem lean in Maryland has only gotten bigger.
MI-GOV – Bernero (D) 52, Hoekstra (R) 48 – Bernero is a unique, outsider candidate who can catch on.
MN-GOV – Dayton (D) 45, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 15 – Dems still have the edge in MN.
NH-GOV – Lynch (D) 55, Stephen (R) 44 – No 50-point margin for Lynch this time.
NY-GOV – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 33 – Hopefully Cuomo helps downballot candidates.
OK-GOV – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Edmondson runs as well as you can in OK this year.
RI-GOV – Caprio (D) 43, Chafee (I) 40, Robitaille (R) 17 – Caprio $$$ edge too much.
SC-GOV – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 47 – Have a feeling Haley will take more hits, but win.
TN-GOV – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 44 – TN too tough this year.
UT-GOV – Herbert (R) 67, Corroon (D) 33 – Easy win for Herbert.
VT-GOV – Dubie (R) 52, Markowitz (D) 48 – Dubie very popular up there.
WI-GOV – Barrett (D) 50.1, Walker (R) 49.9 – Good matchup between two good candidates.
WY-GOV – Micheli (R) 63, Petersen (D) 37 – Bless Petersen’s heart for running here.