In my last diary, I predicted all of the Senate and Governor races for which the primaries have concluded. I indicated that guessing at the winners of future primaries was too speculative even for me. I have come to the conclusion, “Why the hell not?” So here they are. And I’m only tracking the two-way vote unless otherwise indicated (FL-GOV, FL-SEN, MA-GOV, MN-GOV, RI-GOV).
Overall I am seeing a net loss of three seats in the Senate (we lose AR, CO, DE, IN, ND, and NV, and pick up FL, KY, and MO) and one governorship (we lose IA, IL, KS, OK, PA, TN, and WY, and pick up CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, and RI). Pickups are in bold. Any races that are not accounted for below are in my previous diary:
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
AK-SEN – Murkowski (R) 68, McAdams (D) 32 – Complete mismatch.
AZ-SEN – McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 41 – McCain consolidates Republicans.
CO-SEN – Buck (R) 53, Bennet (D) 47 – CO more conservative than most think despite Obama win.
CT-SEN – Blumenthal (D) 57, McMahon (R) 43 – Comfortable win for Blumenthal.
DE-SEN – Castle (R) 52, Coons (D) 47 – Coons grows on DE electorate, but not enough.
FL-SEN – Crist (I) 40, Rubio (R) 39, Greene (D) 20 – Crist caucuses with Dems.
GA-SEN – Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 41 – Easy win for Isakson.
HI-SEN – Inouye (D) 67, Roco (R) 33 – No problem here.
KS-SEN – Moran (R) 62, Schollenberger (D) 38 – May be generous to Schollengerber.
LA-SEN – Vitter (R) 53, Melancon (D) 47 – Melancon is handling BP crisis well, but LA too red.
MD-SEN – Mikulski (D) 60, Wargotz (R) 40 – Comfortable win for Mikulski.
MO-SEN – Carnahan (D) 51, Blunt (R) 48 – Don’t think much of Blunt as a candidate.
NC-SEN – Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 46 – Love Marshall but this is not the year in NC.
NH-SEN – Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 44 – NH seems to love Ayotte for some reason.
NY-SEN (A) – Schumer (D) 64, Townsend (R) 35 – Routine win for Schumer.
NY-SEN (B) – Gillibrand (D) 60, Malpass (R) 40 – No problem for Gillibrand.
OK-SEN – Coburn (R) unopposed
UT-SEN – Bridgewater (R) 65, Granato (D) 35 – It’s Utah.
VT-SEN – Leahy (D) 62, Britton (R) 38 – It’s Vermont.
WA-SEN – Murray (D) 52, Rossi (R) 48 – Rossi a three-time loser.
WI-SEN – Feingold (D) 53, Johnson (D) 46 – Feingold will win another tough race.
AL-GOV – Bentley (R) 56, Sparks (D) 44 – Alabama too tough this year.
AK-GOV – Parnell (R) 62, Berkowitz (D) 38 – Parnell very popular.
AZ-GOV – Brewer (R) 52, Goddard (D) 48 – One of the most interesting races in the country.
CO-GOV – Hickenlooper (D) 51, McInnis (R) 49 – Hickenlooper popular enough to overcome environment.
CT-GOV – Lamont (D) 52, Foley (R) 47 – Dem lean of the state gives Lamont the edge.
FL-GOV – Sink (D) 44, Scott (R) 43, Chiles (I) 13 – Scott’s emergence is a gift to the Democrats.
GA-GOV – Oxendine (R) 51, Barnes (D) 48 – Barnes runs as well as you can in GA this year.
HI-GOV – Abercrombie (D) 57, Aiona (R) 43 – Either Dem should win this comfortably.
KS-GOV – Brownback (R) 60, Holland (D) 40 – Brownback a lightning rod, but will win easily.
MA-GOV – Patrick (D) 43, Baker (R) 38, Cahill (I) 17 – Patrick seems to be peeling away Cahill voters.
MD-GOV – O’Malley (D) 51, Ehrlich (R) 48 – Huge Dem lean in Maryland has only gotten bigger.
MI-GOV – Bernero (D) 52, Hoekstra (R) 48 – Bernero is a unique, outsider candidate who can catch on.
MN-GOV – Dayton (D) 45, Emmer (R) 40, Horner (I) 15 – Dems still have the edge in MN.
NH-GOV – Lynch (D) 55, Stephen (R) 44 – No 50-point margin for Lynch this time.
NY-GOV – Cuomo (D) 67, Lazio (R) 33 – Hopefully Cuomo helps downballot candidates.
OK-GOV – Fallin (R) 55, Edmondson (D) 45 – Edmondson runs as well as you can in OK this year.
RI-GOV – Caprio (D) 43, Chafee (I) 40, Robitaille (R) 17 – Caprio $$$ edge too much.
SC-GOV – Haley (R) 53, Sheheen (D) 47 – Have a feeling Haley will take more hits, but win.
TN-GOV – Haslam (R) 56, McWherter (D) 44 – TN too tough this year.
UT-GOV – Herbert (R) 67, Corroon (D) 33 – Easy win for Herbert.
VT-GOV – Dubie (R) 52, Markowitz (D) 48 – Dubie very popular up there.
WI-GOV – Barrett (D) 50.1, Walker (R) 49.9 – Good matchup between two good candidates.
WY-GOV – Micheli (R) 63, Petersen (D) 37 – Bless Petersen’s heart for running here.
Strickland and the open sen seat?
The economy is terrible and there has been 2 terms of a Dem governor. Then again my response to your absurd speculation is my own absurd speculation so I guess we will see in the Fall.
VT-SEN – Leahy (D) 62, Britton (R) 38 – It’s Vermont.
I think a better version of that would be:
VT-SEN – Leahy (D) 62, Britton (R) 38 – It’s Leahy.
I like to say that for the two years i’ve been coming here I have enjoyed your imput and think of you as a good poster but some of these predictions you have been made are somewhat pessmistic regarding the flips and margins of victory. like what notanothersonofabush said ’10 is not going to be another ’94 and i’m not in denial saying that, I don’t believe this to be a bloodbath and I don’t see John Boehner as Speaker and Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader.
I don’t want to get too specific here but I see Boxer winning by five-ten points, not by two because even though Boxer has lukewarm approvals, she’s still a good Senator and she’s facing the gaffe machine.
Here’s where I disagree on you on flipping seats.
CO-Sen, can’t see Bennet lose to a crazy teabagger
AZ-Gov, Brewer has been unpopular since succeeding Napolitano and can’t see her beating Goddard
FL-Gov, Sink has been trailing in the polls and can’t see her beating McCollum or Scott and Bud Chiles running as a indy dosen’t help matters either
GA-Gov, Barnes has been getting traction lately and Oxendine isn’t the cleanest GOPer running
VT-Gov, Dubie is popular because the Lt.Gov is a positoon where you due diddly unless something happens to the Governor. Can’t see him beating Markowitz.
IN-Sen, Coats won a bloddy primary, a person not too many like and represents a politican people dislike, Ellsworth has the appeal.
OH-Gov. Portman may have cash but was one of the guys on the Bush WH respobsible for the lost of jobs in OH. Can’t see him beating Fisher.
NV-Sen. Yeah Reid is unpopular but he’s facing a complete loon in Sharron Angle, she can’t put together enough controversial statements that Reid can beat into NV voters
IL-Gov. If this was moderate Kirk Dillard running againist Quinn I agree on the flip, but Brady is way too conservative for IL as a whole
I’m torn on KY-Sen and therefore I can’t make a prediction, you were very bold calling this one Spider.
I think you are overestimating Caprio’s cash advantage. Chafee has much higher name recognition than Caprio right now, which somewhat blunts his disadvantage in CoH. and I think Chafee is probably better-liked personally as well. I’ve met him and he’s a bit awkward but people in Rhode Island, even most who voted for Whitehouse in 2006, think he’s a nice guy.
I think Caprio will keep it close but unless he turns into Meg Whitman, his money advantage won’t be enough.
Prominent republicans from Nevada endorsing Reid over Angle.
Here is not Nevada, cause of that I link the new in the previous diary, in the diary of spiderdem for the first predictions.
CO-Sen, CT-Gov, and MO-Sen in particular are right on. Bennet is toast unless the CO GOP nominates Norton, and MO-Sen is going to be WAY closer than it should be given that Carnahan is a great candidate and Blunt…well…is not, to put it mildly. In CT-Gov in particular, though, I think the Netroots have constantly overhyped the quality of Ned Lamont as a candidate since he ran against Lieberman in 2006 – other than being rich and fairly progressive, he’s also a terrible campaigner who looks a lot younger than he is (in a bad way) and just generally comes off as unready, which is why he couldn’t close the deal against Lieberman in a state where most voters are over 50 and see age as an asset. The only thing that pushes him over the top this year is that he’s not running against a sitting incumbent and CT has more Dem-leaning millionaires than any other state – which may make it the only state besides New York where just being a Dem with money is still enough to get you elected.
There are a few variables that are screwy with other races, mostly involving third parties.
MN-Gov: Dayton wasn’t a particularly popular Senator (thanks mostly to the perception of being erratic) and might have some baggage – anti-establishment, anti-rich guy, AND anti-Dayton, artificially inflating the MIP total. Three-way races are always a bitch to figure out (I know – I grew up in Vermont and cut my teeth on this stuff), but I’ve noticed that in MN, as in VT, the most apathetic/purist component of the liberal electorate will abandon the Democratic standard bearer for the left-ish third party before anyone else does, which inevitably kills the Dem in a close race. Dayton might also drive a lot of moderate R’s to Emmer. Money is Dayton’s only asset, and candidates with that profile have trouble in a year like this. I think the GOP holds this seat. Remember what happened in 2006, after all – even in a blazingly Democratic year, the MIP still drew enough apathetic Dems from Hatch to push Pawlenty over the top.
RI-Gov: Not underestimating the influence of money, esp. in a media market as small as Rhode Island’s (though it is pretty expensive for its size), but there’s also the psychological consideration that most RI voters love love love Lincoln Chaffee and feel guilty about voting against him in 2006. Chaffee doesn’t need money to be competitive because he’s already a prominent statewide figure, much as Kitzhaber is in Oregon – all RI voters wanted from him was to abandon the GOP once and for all. We know basically no one is going to vote for Robitalle after the disaster that was Carcieri (and your numbers reflect this), but I think Caprio ends up losing to Chaffee in the end, which actually might not be so bad, considering how liberal Chaffee is compared to most RI Dems.
And I’m not so sure about either of the Florida races, considering the field is still kind of in flux at the last minute. Crist is going to run out of steam soon considering how long he took to switch, and both Meek and Sink look like they’re going to lose the D nomination to Some Rich Dude – which in the Senate race might be enough to push Rubio over the top, as basically anyone is a better D candidate than Meek. I think Rubio wins the Senate seat in spite of himself (due to Dem/Crist competition for the same voters), and Scott (ugh) wins the Governor’s race.
Why do you think Tim Bridgewater, Robert Bentley, and Ron Micheli will be Republican nominees for United States Senate (Bridgewater in Utah) and Governor (Bentley in Alabama and Micheli in Wyoming)? I do not live anywhere near their states but what I’ve read leads me to believe that others have claims that are as good or better than the candidates you mentioned as to why they can claim the nominations for their respective races. Mike Lee (Jim DeMint and FreedomWorks endorsed in ruby red Utah ), Bradley Byrne (establishment former Alabama statewide official with more money while Bentley is an obscure state representative who has lagged in the polls), and Colin Simpson (Speaker of the Wyoming State House and son of former United States Senator Alan Simpson and grandson of former governor and United States Senator Milward Simpson) all seem to be formidable candidates.
I don’t think Coburn’s running unopposed. There are two ‘Some Dudes’ running in the Democratic primary. So while technically Coburn is still runnin’ against a Democrat, his opponent would be so token he might as well be runnin’ unopposed.