Tag: Debbie Halvorson

• CT-Sen: Economist/talking head Peter Schiff, who’s been talking himself up for Chris Dodd’s Senate seat, released an internal poll taken for him by Wilson Research Strategies. Schiff, from the Paulist wing of the party, loses the general to Dodd, 42-38; the bad news here is that, despite the AIG imbroglio falling down the memory hole, Dodd is still significantly behind ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, 47-38. One thing the poll doesn’t test (or at least release publicly): results in the GOP primary.

• OH-Sen: Car dealer Tom Ganley announced his candidacy for the GOP primary for the open Senate seat. (I thought he’d already announced on April 2, but I guess he needed to remind the media of his existence.) Ganley owns 38 dealerships, so he’s not just your average used car dealer; he vows to self-fund significantly in his uphill fight against Rob Portman.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s Independence Party seems determined to field a major candidate in 2010’s ultra-confusing gubernatorial race, and at the top of their wish list is ex-Rep. Jim Ramstad. Ramstad’s name has occasionally been linked to the race as a Republican, but he may be too moderate to make it out of the activist-dominated nominating process. Ramstad’s popularity would make him one to watch in the general, but he’d be laboring under the IP label, whose candidates (including moderate Dem ex-Rep. Tim Penny, who ran for Governor in 2002) have had trouble getting out of the 10-15% range this decade.

• NJ-Gov: Yet another poll of the New Jersey governor’s race, and while it still has Jon Corzine losing to Chris Christie, I’m going to file this in the “good news” column, as it has Corzine down by only 6, with Christie under 50%: 45-39. Interestingly, New Jerseyites seem to understand that the state has become fools gold to Republicans: despite their preferences, they still think Corzine will win, 46-38. Corzine also has a campaign appearance scheduled for July 16 with someone who’s actually maintaining a 62% approval rating in New Jersey (which would translate into about 105% approval in a normal state): Barack Obama. Which, I think, is the first in-the-flesh appearance Obama has made on behalf of any candidate since getting elected.

• NY-Gov: Maybe I’m feeling extra charitable today, but I’m also going to file yesterday’s Marist poll in the “good news” column, because it actually shows David Paterson beating someone: he tops feeble ex-Rep. Rick Lazio 41-40 in a potential matchup. Of course, he still loses to everyone else, whether Andrew Cuomo in a primary (69-24) or Rudy Giuliani in the general (54-37, although that’s also an improvement from May). In case you’re wondering how a Cuomo/Lazio matchup would go, Cuomo would win 68-22.

• SC-Gov: Well, maybe publicly proclaiming that your mistress is your “soulmate” and that you’ve had run-ins with other women (but never crossed “the sex line”) isn’t the best way to keep your job. After it looked like Mark Sanford was successfully digging in for the last few days, the tide seems to be turning: Columbia’s The State says that 12 (of 27) state Senate Republicans have signed a letter to Sanford asking him to resign (including state Sen. Larry Grooms, who’s running to replace Sanford and would suffer having to run against LG Andre Bauer as an incumbent), with 4 more on the record as supporting it but not signing it, or leaning in that direction; Jim DeMint also asked Sanford to pack it in. While the Columbia and Charleston papers haven’t called for resignation, the News in Greenville yesterday joined the Spartanburg Herald-Journal (the twin cities of the state’s bible belt) in publishing an editorial doing so.

• NY-23: Looks like moderate GOP Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who has attracted the interest of both parties in the NY-23 special election, is going full-speed-ahead on the GOP side. She told supporters she’ll be “aggressively seeking her party’s nomination.”

• NY-29: Corning (pop. 11,000) mayor Tom Reed announced that he’ll run against freshman Rep. Eric Massa in 2010. Reed seems to be running as an out-and-proud moderate, with the Main Street Partnership expected to support him. The NRCC has identified him as a leading recruit but hasn’t endorsed him, with several other candidates reportedly still exploring the race. (For what it’s worth, Corning is the hometown of Amo Houghton, former Corning Glass CEO and popular GOP moderate who held this seat for decades.)

• PA-15: I’m starting to like Bethlehem mayor John Callahan more and more, as it’s come out that in 2005 he proved he can match Rahm Emanuel F-bomb-for-F-bomb. Callahan’s response to Emanuel’s needling that “Are you tired of being fucking mayor yet?” was “It’s better than being a fucking congressman.” (The only reason this is relevant today is that the NRCC is now using this incident to argue that he’s now disqualified from becoming a congressman.)

• TN-03: Former GOP state chair Robin Smith made it official, that she’s running to replace Zach Wamp in the 3rd. She had previously quit her party job to focus full-time on exploring the race, so no surprise here; Smith is the likely GOP frontrunner.

• NRCC: The NRCC wasted no time in launching ads to go after the potentially vulnerable House Dems who voted yes on cap-and-trade. Rep. Tom Perriello is the recipient of the dread TV ad this time, while they also took out radio spots and robocalls against Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, Bruce Braley, Betsy Markey, Vic Snyder, Baron Hill, Mary Jo Kilroy, Alan Grayson, Zack Space, Bart Gordon, Debbie Halvorson, John Boccieri, and Ike Skelton.

• Votes (pdf): The Hill has a handy scorecard arranged by district lean while showing how many times vulnerable Dem representatives have broken ranks on 15 important bills. The biggest defector, unsurprisingly, is Bobby Bright, who flipped 13 out of 15 times. (Compared with Chet Edwards, in an even more difficult district but who defected only twice.) The guy who stands out like a sore thumb, though, is Joe Donnelly, who defected 8 times in IN-02, a district that Obama actually won, 54-45.

• MS-St. House: Democrats held the line in a special election in Mississippi state House district 82, as Democrat Wilber Jones held the seat. This is an African-American majority seat, but attracted some attention because the GOP ran a credible African-American candidate, Bill Marcy… but he still went on to lose, 66-34. Dems hold the edge in the House, 75-47.

• PA-Sen: Well, something finally went right for Arlen Specter. After Specter got condemned to the basement on all his committees on Tuesday night, Majority whip Dick Durbin doled out a little charity this morning by giving up his own chair (Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs) and handing it over to Specter (apparently without Pat Leahy‘s say-so). I’m wondering what Specter had to do behind the scenes to smooth things over; if the rumors flying that Specter is poised to re-flip-flop back to supporting EFCA are true, that’s probably the answer.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is still making noises about a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but with her frequent caveats about stepping aside if someone younger takes on the challenge, it seems like she’s doing it more to yank Gillibrand’s chain on gun control issues. Gillibrand has been a reliable vote in favor of gun controls since entering the Senate, going so far as to co-sponsor the current bill to close the gun-show loophole. McCarthy confesses to being “very happy about it. I just want her to stay there.”

• NH-Sen: Judd Gregg tells CQ that wherever he goes, he’s bombarded by Republicans begging him to run for another term in the Senate. He says he’ll listen to their entreaties, but he’s “comfortable with where” he is.

• AK-Gov: Governors in general are having a rough go of it these days, and now even the once-mighty Sarah Palin is suffering, falling to a mundane 54/41 favorable rating according to Hays Research. Senator Lisa Murkowski, by comparison, is still at 76/18.

• OK-Gov: Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is still publicly undecided about the governor’s race, and kicking the can down the road on a formal decision. Reading between the lines of his statement, it sounds like he’s having some trouble fundraising, saying “You don’t take on something like this unless you know you will have the resources to do it.”

• CO-04: The GOP got the candidate it wanted, to go up against freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this now R+6 district. State House minority whip Cory Gardner, who represents the vast emptiness of eastern Colorado, announced that he’ll be running. Univ. of Colorado regent Tom Lucero is already in the hunt for the GOP nod.

• MN-06: One day after former Independence Party Lt. Gov. candidate Maureen Reed said she’ll be a Dem candidate in 2010, the 2008 candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, confirmed he’ll be running again, against one-woman gaffe machine Michele Bachmann.

• CA-47: GOP Assemblyman Van Tran made it official, setting up his exploratory committee for an uphill bid against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Latino-majority district in the heart of the O.C. (Discussion underway in Gus Ayer‘s diary.)

• ID-01: Idaho state Treasurer Don Crane spent the last week glad-handing GOP leaders and fundraisers in Washington, DC, fueling speculation that he’s ready to challenge frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick next year. Would his candidacy dampen the spirits of ex-Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali, who is currently mulling a rematch? (J)

• GA-09: When you have an R+28 district, the only question about an open seat is what variety of wingnut you’re going to get next. Former state Senator Bill Stephens (who lost the SoS primary to Karen Handel in 2006) announced he’ll run to succeed Rep. Nathan Deal, retiring to run for governor. Former state Transportation Board chair Mike Evans is already seek the GOP nom.

• IL-11: The GOP has lined up Air Force Captain Adam Kinzinger to run against freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Chicago suburbs. His exploratory committee is open, but he’s currently serving in Iraq and won’t be able to make a formal announcement until summer.

• MI-11: We’ve got somebody willing to step up against Bad Thad McCotter in this Dem-trending seat in the economically hard-hit Detroit suburbs: fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher. The DCCC sounds like it’s going to keep looking for someone else, but if that fails, bear in mind that McCotter barely won in 2008 against a different Dem nobody.

• GA-12: When you’re running for office, it’s important to sell yourself… but not oversell yourself. Surgeon and Iraq vet Wayne Mosely, who’s running against Rep. John Barrow in the D+1 rural Georgia district, recently tweeted that the NRCC rated his race as one of the top 3 in the nation! Uh, no, there’s no ranking system, responded the NRCC, although they did concede that they were “very excited” about Mosely’s candidacy.

• NY-20 (pdf): The latest update from the state BoE this morning shows Scott Murphy’s lead down to 25, as the absentee count proceeds (and a few readjustments are made to recanvass numbers). We’re still waiting on any absentee numbers from Saratoga County (Tedisco’s base) and most from Washington and Warren Counties (Murphy’s base).

Also, there’s been some research into what happens in NY-20 ends in a true tie (and no, apparently “Thunderdome” is not involved after all). Under NY law, coin tosses are not allowed in state or federal races, so the governor has the choice of either holding another special election for which the candidates will need to be re-nominated (allowing Libertarian Eric Sundwall another shot at the ballot), or else postponing the whole matter until the general election in Nov. 2009.

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is getting slammed even by his one-time supporters now. Rep. Danny Davis told Chicago Public Radio that Burris needs to “hurry up” and announce whether or not he’s running for re-election in 2010. Davis’s sudden hurry is personally motivated, though, as Davis also stated publicly for the first time that he’s considering running for that senate seat himself. (It seems like he wouldn’t want to do it with Burris in the primary, though, as that would split the African-American vote.)

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman may not have much name recognition or charisma, but he does have one advantage: lots of money. Today he reported raising $1.7 million in Q1, and is sitting on $3.1 million total. Lee Fisher, by contrast, announced last week that he raised $1.1 million, while Jennifer Brunner hasn’t reported yet.

• NY-Sen: Here are some tea leaves that Rep. Carolyn McCarthy isn’t going to be running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the senate primary: she raised $145,000 in the first quarter (for House re-election, but that could be transferred if she switched to the senate race), with $262,000 CoH. (Also-rumored challengers Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney have much bigger stashes; they haven’t reported for Q1, but have $1.7 million and $1.1 million CoH, respectively.)

• DE-Sen: Along the same lines, it looks like Mike Castle isn’t gearing up his fundraising machine toward a run for the open senate seat in Delaware in 2010. (On the other hand, he’s raised enough that retirement doesn’t seem in the offing.) Politico catches that he raised only $73,000 in Q1, with $841,000 CoH.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek got another big “get” in his so-far-successful quest to nail down all the building blocks to cornering the Democratic nomination. He got the endorsement of the national AFSCME today, one of the nation’s largest unions.

• MN-Sen: Digging by Senate Guru and Down with Tyranny reveals that one of the Minnesota Supreme Court justices who’ll be hearing Norm Coleman’s whinings is Christopher Dietzen, who has donated thousands to Republican candidates, most significantly to Norm Coleman himself, creating a rather clear basis for recusal.

• AL-Gov: Former “Ten Commandments” judge Roy Moore, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Bob Riley, is looking for another try, now that it’s an open seat. With a fractured-looking GOP field, it’s possible Moore could sneak through the primary this time, which, given his polarizing nature, might actually give the Dem a small advantage in the general.

• NYC-Mayor: NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg solved the term limits problem, but he had one more problem to overcome: getting a ballot line from some party. To solve that dilemma, he’s returned to his shallow Republican roots, remaining a registered independent but picking up the GOP ballot line by getting the endorsement of three of the boroughs’ GOP chairs. In a display of ‘post-partisanship’ at its finest, he’s reportedly also trying to secure the ballot line of the left-leaning Working Families Party.

• OH-17: In a move guaranteed to provoke a huge collective sigh of relief, Ohio senate minority leader Capri Cafaro said that she won’t run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Tim Ryan, assuming he runs for Ohio Lt. Gov. in 2010. “I don’t know if I can get as much accomplished on the federal level,” she says.

• PA-04: Republicans seem to be coalescing around state representative (and minority whip) Mike Turzai as a challenger to Rep. Jason Altmire in this slowly-reddening district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. Turzai lost the 1998 election in the 4th to Ron Klink by a fairly wide margin. The 4th’s most prominent GOPer, Lynn Swann, has already declined.

• AR-01: A likely GOP candidate has already surfaced to run against Marion Berry (no, not the DC mayor) in this rural district that had one of the most alarming rightward shifts over the decade. In the ‘can’t make this stuff up’ department, businessman Eric Crawford already boasts wide name recognition from doing the radio farm report.

• IL-11: Real estate investor and big-money GOP donor Henry Meers Jr. has filed to take on freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the 11th. However, some in the local GOP instead favor Iraq War vet and former McLean County board member Adam Kinzinger. (Kinzinger is from the rural part of the district, while Meers and Halvorson hail from Will County in the Chicago suburbs.)

• NRCC: The NRCC is going on the offense against 43 different House dems for “rubber stamping” Nancy Pelosi’s “San Francisco-style budget” (and its socialistic promise of Rice-a-Roni in every pot). Oddly, they’re singling out OH-18’s Zack Space (certainly not one of our most vulnerable members) with a TV spot. Nine other Dems get radio spots, while robocalls target the rest (including other entrenched members like Charlie Melancon and Chet Edwards).

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices this time: Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. Go get your democracy on, and tell us which state you voted for (and why) in the comments. (J)

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50

Marty Ozinga (R): 29

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Looks like Daily Kos has a bit of competition on the blogs-commissioning-polls front: Illinois local blog Progress Illinois (sponsored by the Illinois SEIU) has ordered polls of the two hottest House races in Illinois. The IL-11 poll is extremely good news; there had been some worries that the Halvorson internal from a few days ago taken by Anzalone Liszt was a little too good to be true (at 48-29), but these numbers almost exactly match. Money was the one asset that Ozinga had and it kept him competitive for many months, but with his fundraising numbers trailing off and Ozinga’s big fundraising dinner with Dick Cheney last week called off so Cheney could go get his heart rebooted, Ozinga’s chances seem to be circling the drain.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded IL-11 to Lean Democratic.

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 41

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 47

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Things don’t look quite as good further north in the 10th, as Dan Seals trails incumbent Mark Kirk by 6. This is pretty close to R2K’s poll from a few weeks ago (Kirk up 44-38), but a mirror image to SurveyUSA‘s subsequent poll (Seals up 52-44). It’s still encouraging to see Kirk well below 50, but it looks like this one will go down to the wire, with Seals heavily dependent on Obama coattails.

The campaigns of Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga both released new internal polls today, and they agree on one key point: Halvorson is ahead.

Public Opinion Strategies for Marty Ozinga (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 38 (40)

Marty Ozinga (R): 36 (33)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Anzalone-Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (9/14-16, likely voters, May in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 (43)

Marty Ozinga (R): 35 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

If there is a point of concern, it’s that Halvorson hasn’t built on her lead despite a whopping $641,000 spent on her behalf and against Ozinga by the DCCC and EMILY’s List in the past couple of months. Both candidates have their own special kind of baggage (Halvorson for the Blagojevich association, Ozinga for his extremely shady business practices and various tax liens), so this could end up being a matter of which candidate emerges less banged-up at the end of the day.

Ozinga’s poll finds that McCain holds a 44-43% lead in IL-11 — that might at first glance seem a bit slanted given Obama’s home state advantage, but keep in mind that Bush beat John Kerry by a 53-46 margin here in 2004.

Oh, and there’s this nugget from NRCC Chair Tom Cole:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks.

Cole said the race for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Morris, is among at least 50 and maybe 60 seats the NRCC will seek to influence in the stretch run. He said the committee had not moved to help Ozinga and other candidates so far due to limited funds.

“This is a ‘don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes,’ ” strategy, Cole said.

It’s sort of fitting that Cole would use a battle cry from the American Revolutionary War, when the range of muskets was severely limited, as the NRCC’s capabilities have certainly regressed by a few decades over the past year and a half.

Also amusing is Cole’s note that the NRCC will influence “at least 50 and maybe 60 seats” this fall. With what? Spitballs? Well, I guess the NRCC can influence a race by not spending any money on it…

UPDATE: Full Anzalone-Liszt polling memo below the fold.

Caught this story on The Fix.  Democratic candidate Debbie Halvorson has been removed from her chairmanship of the Illinois State Senate Rules Committee.

The Crete Democrat has been at the head of the committee for at least two years, but was removed completely after she came under fire by Republican Marty Ozinga III’s campaign for her apparent inability to pass a popular recall amendment, a measure Halvorson supported but Senate President Emil Jones and Gov. Rod Blagojevich vehemently opposed.

“Jones said we have some more issues that we need to work on for this session, and that my opponent is making a big deal and taking everything out of context, and that it’s distracting to what we need to get accomplished,” Halvorson said. “I’m very surprised. I did not ask for it.”

….

In a 2000 story by the Associated Press, Halvorson, then on the minority side, said the Rules Committee drives the legislative agenda of the in-power party. “That’s what happens when you rule the place. While you have the gavel, you have the power,” Halvorson was quoted as saying.

Ozinga’s campaign says Halvorson only started “bucking Jones” during her congressional campaign, but Halvorson offered two examples from before her campaign days: She opposed the proposed gross receipts tax and wanted a capital bill approved before a CTA bailout, both issues on which she and Jones disagreed, she said.

Are you kidding me?  Her Republican opponent complains about her standing up for what she believes in, so the Senate president removes her from her position?  Let’s hope this backfires on Ozinga from saying that Halvorson is simply a “rubber-stamp” for Jones.

Meanwhile, it looks like Ozinga hired Jack Abramoff consultant Jonathan Poe to be his media consultant.  We’ll see if this story has legs, though I doubt it, as Poe didn’t do anything illegal.

the respected capitol fax blog reports “Congressman Jerry Weller is not yet circulating his nominating petitions.”  for those who don’t know, candidates have to collect signatures to get their names on the ballot in illinois, collecting an equivalent of .5% of the number of partisan voters in the last primary election.  the daily southtown, a local paper of sorts for the northern end of the 11th congressional district in illinois, also notes:

Rumors are circulating that Weller may decide against another term, particularly in light of the bad press he is receiving over his Guatemalan financial interests. Phone calls, I’m told, have been made to his top donors indicating he may be preparing to “hang it up.” His family, after all, lives in Guatemala. That’s a long commute.

not to mention weller’s recent naming as one of the “22 most corrupt” in congress, in an annual report by citizens for responsibility and ethics in washington.

weller feeds the “republicans are corrupt” meme, and his getting subpoenaed recently in the duke cunningham investigation/brent wilkes trial reinforces that.

the good news is that emily’s list and local democrats have been talking to illinois senate majority leader debbie halvorson about running for this seat, regardless of what weller decides.  the daily southtown reports that “Halvorson is meeting with Emily’s List recruiters this month to discuss a possible congressional bid.”  recent comments might indicate a desire to get out of the current environment in springfield.  but, as the southtown notes, she could run without having to give up her senate seat — a choice preferred by most incumbents.

halvorson would be an incredibly strong challenger — and would probably clear the democratic field if she gets in the race.  her entry, especially with the support of national groups like emily’s list, would instantly pull this seat into the competitive column (doesn’t hurt that weller has many ethical problems).  and if it became an open seat, halvorson’s candidacy could put this into the leans democrat column fairly quickly.