SSP Daily Digest: 5/19

AL-07: Former Selma Mayor James Perkins (who was defeated in his attempt to seek a third term in 2008) is jumping into the open seat race here. He is likely to draw support away from Terri Sewell, Artur Davis’s preferred successor, also a Selma native.

AL-Gov: Speaking of good ol’ Artur, he’s released an internal poll which shows him up 56-26 over Ron Sparks and 54-25 over Sue Bell in the Dem primary. He also purports to lead Republican Bradley Byrne by a 43-38 margin. I’m finding it hard to believe that a congressman has such high name rec (59-6 for Davis among Dems statewide!). But the best checksum: This survey has Obama’s favorables at 58%. Last month, SUSA had them at just 48%. Which do you think is more likely? In other AL-Gov news, state Sen. Roger Bedford (D) says he won’t run.

IA-Gov: State Auditor David Vaudt, one of only two Republicans holding statewide office in Iowa, has declined to challenge incumbent Gov. Chet Culver next year.

NC-Sen: Both Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre are leaving the door open to a Senate bid, with McIntyre sounding more enthused. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is “not considering” the race, Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker is “not looking at running,” and state Rep. Grier Martin claims his “decision to decline a chance to run against Elizabeth Dole was also not to run in 2010.”

NV-Gov: Jim Gibbons’ poll numbers are just horrendous – in a new Mason-Dixon survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, 54% say they would “definitely vote to replace” him. Gibbons’ campaign manager claims things are lookin’ up, because his boss’s approvals were 25-69 in a January Reno Gazette poll but are an awesome 17-52 in this one.

NV-Sen: Meanwhile, the same poll finds pretty lousy numbers for Harry Reid as well, but better than Gibbons’. Reid gets 45% “definitely replace,” but his approvals are “only” 38-50. The big difference, of course, is that the GOP doesn’t really have any strong candidates to challenge Reid, while plenty of folks are lining up to take a whack at Gibbons.

FL-CFO: Checking in with an old friend, it looks like Annette Taddeo is considering a run to replace Alex Sink as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer.

Redistricting: CQ has a story on five key races that could affect congressional redistricting. Roll Call has published the second half of its two-part series on the same subject (part one here). And finally, the National Conference of State Legislatures is holding the first in a series of training seminars on redistricting in San Francisco, June 11-14.

NC-SEN: Grier Martin passes on race

According to the good folks over at Blue NC, Grier Martin called to say that he’s passing on a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole:

http://bluenc.com/ji…

That leaves the race in the hands of little known fundraiser Jim Neal. While national Democrats have done a good job convincing themselves that second-tier candidates Jeff Merkley and Marty Chavez are really first-tier candidates, there’s no way to spin Neal’s candidacy in such a way.

For those keeping track at home, the following North Carolina Democrats have passed on the race:

* Gov. Mark Easley
* Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue
* Treasurer Richard Moore
* AG Roy Cooper
* Raleigh Mayor Charlie Meeker
* Congressman Brad Miller
* State Sen. Kay Hagan
* State Rep. Grier Martin

(Presumably, Congressmen Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre, and David Price are also not running)

Maybe Erskine Bowles is still availible.

While Elizabeth Dole has vulnerabilities and North Carolina has a fervent Democratic population, this latest recruitment failure signals that Dole is likely to get a pass this election. Neal may make the race competitive enough for Dole to have to pay attention to it, but her large warchest and sound campaigning skills should allow her to win re-election without a sweat.