Tag: MD-1

Cross Posted at DailyKos

Great news coming out of MD-4 as we watch Al Wynn go down to defeat, but that is not the only incumbent that is going down to defeat in the great state of MD.  Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchrest lost to State Senator Andrew Harris in MD-1.  

Follow me below the fold to look at this race and the interesting dynamics created by Harris defeating Gilchrest…

Future Republican Nominee Andrew Harris is a Club For Growth candidate, who has represented the Harford County and Baltimore County part of a district that has roughly 50% of its population on the Eastern Shore of MD, 25% in Anne Arundel County north of Annapolis, and 25% in Harford and Baltimore County.  The Democratic Nominee will be Frank Kratovil who is the State’s Attorney in Queen Anne’s County.  Queen Anne’s County is on the Eastern Shore.  This sets up a regional dynamic to the general election.  The Eastern Shore really doesn’t like anything “Baltimore”, which they define as anything on the west side of the Bay Bridge whether it is in fact Baltimore or Nebraska or Oregon.  With the Republican Andrew Harris from Baltimore County and the Democrat Frank Kratovil from the Eastern Shore the Democrats have a real opportunity to appeal to Eastern Shore voters and win the district.  Eastern Shore voters tend to be more in favor of protecting the environment and for fiscal discipline than Republicans these days, particularly Club For Growth candidates like Andrew Harris.  

Frank Kratovil can win this race.  I have known him for about 11 years and volunteered on his first election for State’s Attorney in 2002.  I have never met a harder working campaigner.  He will out work Harris.  He also is both very charismatic and a policy wonk.  

Cross-Posted from Hat Thief

Of the 200 or so Republicans in the House of Representatives, the one I’m probably least concerned with beating is Wayne Gilchrest. He’s pro-choice, pro-environment, wants to leave Iraq and has a relatively moderate voting record on economic issues.

And his district is pretty heavily Republican (62-38 for Bush in 2004, 57-40 for Bush in 2000). So even a True Believer® will be tough to beat here.

Wayne’s biggest fight has always been in the primary. He’s nearly been Clubbed for Growth^TM several times now.

And Pat Toomey’s organization is at it again with a new attack website, Wayne Gilchrest is a Liberal.

 an a the same strategy they used to help True Believer® Tim Walberg take down Rep. Joe Schwarz, another moderate Republican. Well, that and $500,000 in Schwarz-bashing ads.

So True Believer® State Sen. Andrew Harris is running as a “real conservative” and could well take him down.

But it looks like Gilchrest may have some good news. State Senator E.J. Pipkin has announced his intentions to run against Gilchrest as an “Eastern Shores conservative,” and pundits believe this will help split the anti-Gilchrest vote.

The Club for Growth will stick with Harris (they’ve been a conduit to raise money for him); however, E.J. Pipkin is a multi-millionaire and is willing to spend vasts sums of money, so he’ll get himself some exposure.

Frankly, I think that may be a good thing. In heavily Republican districts, I’d much prefer a moderate Republican to a far-right Republican.

However, there is always the possibility that Gilchrest could choose to run as an Independent and skip the primary; he’s popular enough to do that.

It wouldn’t be the first time a Republican left the party (or made noises about it) after a Clubbing for Growth.

• Lincoln Chafee left the Republican party after narrowly winning his primary against CFG-backed Steven Laffey and then losing the general
• Joe Schwarz has made noises about leaving the party
• Arlen Specter, who was challenged by now-CFG president Pat Toomey, would probably leave if he wasn’t a coward-he Bloomberged his way into the Republican party [Bloomberg = running as a Republican for city office to avoid heavily ethnic Democratic primary]; he should Bloomberg his way out again
• Bob Smith endorsed John Kerry for president after losing his primary to CFG-backed John Sununu