Author: DemocraticLuntz

Cross-Posted from Hat Thief

Of the 200 or so Republicans in the House of Representatives, the one I’m probably least concerned with beating is Wayne Gilchrest. He’s pro-choice, pro-environment, wants to leave Iraq and has a relatively moderate voting record on economic issues.

And his district is pretty heavily Republican (62-38 for Bush in 2004, 57-40 for Bush in 2000). So even a True Believer® will be tough to beat here.

Wayne’s biggest fight has always been in the primary. He’s nearly been Clubbed for Growth^TM several times now.

And Pat Toomey’s organization is at it again with a new attack website, Wayne Gilchrest is a Liberal.

 an a the same strategy they used to help True Believer® Tim Walberg take down Rep. Joe Schwarz, another moderate Republican. Well, that and $500,000 in Schwarz-bashing ads.

So True Believer® State Sen. Andrew Harris is running as a “real conservative” and could well take him down.

But it looks like Gilchrest may have some good news. State Senator E.J. Pipkin has announced his intentions to run against Gilchrest as an “Eastern Shores conservative,” and pundits believe this will help split the anti-Gilchrest vote.

The Club for Growth will stick with Harris (they’ve been a conduit to raise money for him); however, E.J. Pipkin is a multi-millionaire and is willing to spend vasts sums of money, so he’ll get himself some exposure.

Frankly, I think that may be a good thing. In heavily Republican districts, I’d much prefer a moderate Republican to a far-right Republican.

However, there is always the possibility that Gilchrest could choose to run as an Independent and skip the primary; he’s popular enough to do that.

It wouldn’t be the first time a Republican left the party (or made noises about it) after a Clubbing for Growth.

• Lincoln Chafee left the Republican party after narrowly winning his primary against CFG-backed Steven Laffey and then losing the general
• Joe Schwarz has made noises about leaving the party
• Arlen Specter, who was challenged by now-CFG president Pat Toomey, would probably leave if he wasn’t a coward-he Bloomberged his way into the Republican party [Bloomberg = running as a Republican for city office to avoid heavily ethnic Democratic primary]; he should Bloomberg his way out again
• Bob Smith endorsed John Kerry for president after losing his primary to CFG-backed John Sununu

Okay, I didn’t manage to respond to David yesterday on DKos so I figured I’d write a detailed response diary here.

I had asserted that nearly all Senate pickups we’ve had in recent years outside of wave years are people who, at the time, had some affiliation with the DLC (not necessarily members, since the DLC doesn’t have members, per se, according to their response to my query on the subject several weeks ago)

Detailed, exhaustive proof of my point below.

1996-Ron Wyden, special election (seems to be a member, has written for a publication of theirs.
Tim Johnson (member link)
1998-
Chuck Schumer(?, has written for their Blueprint magazine, but no affiliation is clear)
John Edwards(was a founding member of the Senate New Democrat Coalition)
Evan Bayh (former DLC chairman)
2000-
Maria Cantwell(Link)
Debbie Stabenow (see above link)
Bill Nelson (see above link)
Jean Carnahan (Link
Tom Carper(current DLC Vice-chair)
Mark Dayton(not a member)
2002
Mark Pryor(member, Link
2004
Barack Obama(not a member)
Ken Salazar (longtime New Democrat; Link

So that’s between 10 and 12 out of 14. Like I said, generally only DLCers have won in non-wave years post-1994.