Tag: DCCC

You all know what’s at stake in this election. Democrats have a rare opportunity to not only win big in November, but to sweep out a great deal of crusty, Bush-enabling Republicans in the House. I know you guys are working hard to make this happen as you donate your time and money to local campaigns. However, there’s one thing we can all do that could have a big impact on how many districts Democrats seriously contest, and that’s encouraging the slowpokes in the House Democratic caucus to pay their DCCC dues in full.

Working behind the scenes with Chris Bowers over at Open Left, we’ve dug up a list of House members who are behind on their dues to the DCCC. All told, we’re looking at 54 members and $6.5 million worth of missing dues. Campaign contact information for each member is available here.

Final media buys will be made by the DCCC in just a few days, so ever dollar that the DCCC can scrape together means a great deal. If you want to help out, please call a few incumbents on this list who are close to you and urge them to pay up to the DCCC. As Bowers says, be polite and fair. You can also consult this second list of incumbents facing token opposition, and encourage them to be even more generous.

Time’s a-wastin’. Let’s do this thing, people!

A round-up of all the significant independent expenditures filed with the FEC today:

It was a $12.6 million day for the DCCC today, and they dumped cash in 51 races, including some first-timers like MN-06 (Bachmann), WV-02 (Capito), WY-AL (Open), and SC-01 (Brown). They’ve also hit the airwaves in KS-02, against the wishes of Nancy Boyda. (Good.) The NRCC, meanwhile, could only pop off a $1 million response (although they did spend $4 million yesterday).

I’m not particularly thrilled with the amount spent on Baron Hill or against Keith Fimian (an utter nobody, albeit a rich nobody), but I’m pleased to see a few more districts added to the big board.

A round-up of all the major independent expenditures filed with the FEC in the past 24 hours:

The NRCC finally opens its wallet — they spent nearly $4 million today, while the DCCC threw down $3.8 mil (but were aided by groups like the Defenders of Wildlife and the Humane Society).

I’m sure the D-trip will be filing many more ad buys tomorrow. More details are available at SSP’s IE tracker.

September fundraising numbers for the four party committees:

Note that these figures do not include recent loans obtained by the DCCC ($15 million) and the NRCC ($8 million). I would expect their Senate counterparts to take out loans as well.

While we don’t yet know the details of the NRSC and the DSCC’s spending this month, the DCCC has made about $19.6 million worth of independent expenditures so far in October according to our IE tracker. By contrast, the NRCC has only spent about $6 million on IEs so far in October.

I hate to sound like I’m starting to do a victory dance about five yards shy of the end zone, but for practical purposes, the presidential race is all but over. (John King from CNN just reported that the McCain campaign has more or less ruled out the possibility of winning Colorado along with Iowa and New Mexico, which is tantamount to ruling out the possibility of winning the election. King reports Team McCain’s considers its last hope to be a triple-bank-shot approach of holding all the other battleground states and somehow picking up Pennsylvania.)

That doesn’t absolve anyone of doing the hard work of GOTVing, of course; it just should lead to some discussion of what we might do with the Obama campaign’s gigantic financial bounty. Considering that I write for Swing State Project, you might assume (correctly) that I would call for some of that money to be released to be spent on downballot races. The Obama campaign has seemingly read my mind, as he seems serious about not just bringing with him the 60-seat Senate and progressive-heavy House that he’ll need to enact his agenda, but even building at the state legislature level.

The Washington Post is reporting, in an aside in a piece of Obama’s advertising plans, that some of the campaign’s money may go to the DSCC and DCCC:

The campaign has raised so much money that it is considering passing some along to Democratic Party committees to try to help grow the party’s majorities in Congress, according to a campaign source.

Marc Ambinder also reports that the DNC may be moving money to state legislative races (as much as $20 million), especially in key contests like the New York Senate, Ohio House, and Texas House. This is, to my mind, extremely important, as expanding state legislative majorities serves to build the Democratic bench and Democratic brand, and will help establish as much Democratic control as possible over the 2010 redistricting process… one more example of how both Obama and Dean are playing 3-D chess after decades of Democratic committees playing tic-tac-toe. (H/t Kos.)

Which brings me to one more item on my wish list: that Obama himself, in the last week of the campaign, hold some rallies in Mississippi and Georgia, even if it means passing up the chance to try to nail down, say, the EVs of Indiana or West Virginia. Part of that, of course, stems from the need to call attention to and bolster enthusiasm for the campaigns of Ronnie Musgrove and Jim Martin, either of whom could be that Senate Seat #60. But there’s also the sheer symbolic power of it: the nation’s first African-American president marching confidently into the reddest corners of the Deep South, and making his last stand there.

The phrase “game changer” is without a doubt a pretty overused term in politics, but this turn of events undoubtedly qualifies as one:

24 hours ago, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann announced that all those who disagree with her are “Anti-American.”  Since then, the outpouring of support for my campaign has been extraordinary.  Since Congresswoman Bachmann’s outrageous remarks, my campaign has raised $438,346.57, and we’re working to reach $500,000 by 5 p.m. today.

In an update to that post, the Tinklenberg campaign confirms that they’ve bumped up that tally to $488K — and at the rate they’ve been raising over at Actblue (they started off at just $3K before Bachmann unleashed her inner crazy), they almost certainly met their goal.

On top of all this, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will indeed be going up on the air in support of Tinklenberg shortly (SSP sources). It looks like things are shifting fast in this race — Bachmann isn’t even hitting 50% in her own internals.

Public Opinion Strategies (likely voters, 10/12-13):

El Tinklenberg (D): 33

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 44

Bob Anderson (IP): 8

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The Kissy Monster is indeed standing on shaky ground. Another poll conducted around the same time by Grove Insight had Bachmann leading by only 42-38.

The DCCC hasn’t spent an especially large amount in defense of freshman Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (just $350K according to our IE tracker), and it seems that they won’t be spending much more:

In southeastern Arizona’s 8th District, incumbent Rep. Gabrielle Giffords denounced a Democratic committee ad that criticized the bus company belonging to Republican Tim Bee’s family.

The ad said the bus company has substandard service, lacks trained drivers and left children unsupervised, and that Bee “should be ashamed of himself.”

The committee pulled the ad as soon as it was aware of Giffords’ displeasure and replaced it with a different one, the Democratic committee’s Crider said.

The committee won’t run any more ads for Giffords after the current ad buys run out.

While we haven’t seen any recent polls from this race, I’ll take the DCCC’s less-than-heavy investment and their decision not to use all of their $705K ad reservation as a good sign for Giffords.

Update: Sounds like they’ll be cutting back on 5th District expenditures, too:

While Republicans have expressed confidence in Schweikert’s ability to unseat Mitchell, the DCCC doesn’t think it’s going to happen.

Accordingly, according to the insider, the DCCC’s ad presence in the 5th district is also going to be “drastically reduced” prior to election day.

The focus for the DCCC in Arizona is now the 3rd Congressional District race, where Bob Lord is attempting to defeat the seven term Republican incumbent, U.S. Rep. John Shadegg. The DCCC, which was once reluctant to put money behind what many considered a long shot candidacy, has pumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into the district in recent weeks.

Boom:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, seeing an irresistible opportunity to make big gains on Election Day, has secured a $15 million loan that it will use to splurge on tight races during the last three weeks of the campaign season.

The $15 million loan is nearly twice the $8 million that the National Republican Congressional Committee was able to borrow recently and adds to the huge financial advantage that Democrats already hold over the GOP.

When combined with the cash-on-hand advantage that the DCCC has over the National Republican Congressional Committee – $54 million to $14.4 million as of Aug. 31 – the loan leaves House Democratic leaders with $47 million more than their GOP counterparts to pour into contested districts.

In 2006, the DCCC took out an $11.5 million loan in the home stretch to help pay for the IE operations. At $15 million, this cash injection is nearly twice the size of the cash-strapped NRCC’s $8 million loan, ensuring that the NRCC won’t be able to outspend the DCCC anywhere.

That sound you hear is Tom Cole weeping into his Appletini.

As her Republican opponent files the biggest single quarter fundraising report from a Kansas congressional candidate in the state’s history, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda (D-KS) actually finds herself increasingly more secure in her first re-election bid.

Even with a $681,000 quarter and running in a district that went to George W. Bush by double digits, Republican Kansas State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins woke up today to not only still find herself behind in cash-on-hand, but she also had to read that The Cook Political Report had moved the race in the Kansas 2nd out of the “Toss Up” column and into “Leans Democratic.”  

The question is: Why?

For those of us on the ground, it’s easy to see the answer to that question.

Over the course of the last 2 years, Boyda has been an able representative- never quite liberal enough for the liberals, and never quite conservative enough for the conservatives.  Instead she has been a very traditional Kansas Democrat, bucking the party when it doesn’t represent her district’s interests.  While that hasn’t always made her popular with lots different interest groups, it has left her quite popular and well-regarded back at home.

Also, the simple fact the folk back at home have seen so much of Boyda has made a massive difference in the way she’s perceived in district.  Boyda has held hundreds of public meetings, has been home nearly every single weekend (save the few she spent in Iraq and Afghanistan- including Christmas 2007), and her constituent services office has been open and accessible, potentially the very best in Kansas.

While those things certainly have insulated Boyda, in at least some regard, to the ceaseless partisan attacks she’s been bludgeoned with for two years, simply coming home a lot and being available only goes so far for a Democrat in an R+7 district.  Why, then, is a Republican like Jenkins having such a hard time gaining traction in this previously reliably Republican district- and why has The Cook Political Report moved this race out of the toss up category this late in the game?

All you need to do is open a district newspaper to find out.

Over the course of the last two weeks, Lynn Jenkins has been hit by two revelations that went straight to the core of her candidacy (the fact that, as a CPA and a competent state treasurer, she could better manage the fiscal house of the United States than Boyda) and have totally derailed her bid.

First: While campaigning against former Congressman Jim Ryun in the Republican primary, Jenkins skipped every single monthly meeting of the Kansas Public Employee Retirement System Board of Trustees- while that fund, which provides for the pensions of every state employee and school teacher in Kansas, lost more than $1 billion.

Missing board meetings certainly isn’t a sexy scandal, but it resonated in the district, if only because Jenkins had been hitting Boyda hard for months for Boyda’s infamous 10-minute “walkout” on Ret. Gen. Jack Keane from a 2007 Armed Services Committee meeting, with Jenkins saying Boyda wasn’t doing her job because she left the room.  Unfortunately for Jenkins, when the voters compared the two it was all too obvious who actually wasn’t doing their job and who’s lax attention to their duties had actually harmed the people of Kansas.

Jenkins dug herself deeper when she wouldn’t explain where she had been instead of at the meetings, only to state she was “busy” and that she has “a lot of balls in the air” at the current time.  Oh, also, Jenkins said she was never actually out of contact with the board, and that she communicated with everyone via email.  But, in the very same newspaper piece she was quoted saying that, the Executive Director of KPERS said:

(KPERS executive director Glenn Deck) said he hadn’t received any e-mails or phone calls from Jenkins recently and said he wasn’t aware of others receiving contact either.

“I don’t think so because I think I would be copied,” Deck said.

He also said he wasn’t aware of feedback Jenkins has provided to the board while she was away.

Ouch.

It got worse for Jenkins October 16 when the Topeka Capital-Journal ran a story revealing that, during her terms as state treasurer, the state of Kansas misallocated upwards of $15 million in motor fuel taxes in the way payments were made out to Kansas counties.  The accounting error that led to the mismanagement of funds wasn’t the fault of the Jenkins administration, and her staff did indeed find the flaw after using the wrong formula for six years.

But our story gets better.  So, for six years Lynn Jenkins either overpaid or shortchanged Kansas counties- millions of dollars potentially mismanaged.  After her staff discovered the error, she dashed off a letter to the governor’s office alerting her and then Lynn…did nothing…for two months.  Not a single word to any counties to let them know they might be asked to repay thousands back to the state in their next fiscal year- nor notification that they may be receiving extra cash, either.  By the time she got around to telling the counties what had happened, 2009 fiscal year budgets were already set and we can promise you not one county in Kansas budgeted an extra $150,000 just in case Lynn Jenkins screwed up.  If Jenkins had moved appropriately, counties might have been able to adjust to repay the state (or, of course, absorb new funds), but she didn’t.  

One last bit: Still to this day the treasurer’s office has not produced a spreadsheet showing where overpayments and underpayments have occured, so Kansas counties still have no idea what they might owe.  

Eventually someone’s going to have to pay for Lynn Jenkins’ mismanagement, and, sadly, it’s going to be the taxpayers of Kansas.

Lynn Jenkins’ star was near particularly bright- generally, the people of the Kansas 2nd seem happy with Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.  But, over the course of the last two weeks, Jenkins’ task ahead became much, much more difficult- all because she’s really not good at the job she already has.  When you’re running a campaign based solely on the fact you’re really competent and that you’ll be able to “clean up Washington,” nothing is more damaging that it being revealed that you’re really, really just not competent.

Boyda’s reelection certainly won’t be a blow out, and Jenkins has already tried her best to distort Boyda’s record in an effort to make her own record problems go away, but, for those of you wondering why The Cook Political Report had decided this race was a little less close than it was a couple of weeks ago, we hope this provides a little local perspective.

Whoa, this is big news:

The national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has purchased a large bloc of advertising time in the South Bend and Fort Wayne television markets for the final three weeks leading to Election Day. […]

Sources tell FWOb that $487,000 has been committed to television advertising by the DCCC in the Third District.  That represents an approximately 1900 point buy which means even the most casual television viewer is likely to be exposed to the advertising numerous times.

The first ad is to begin running this morning. Advertising purchased by the congressional campaign committees tends to be more oriented to driving up the negatives of the incumbent than providing a positive message supporting the nominee.

That’s a significant amount of scrilla for this race. This is an R+16 district, but GOP incumbent Mark Souder has displayed some significant weakness as of late, and only beat back his 2006 opponent by a 54-46 margin — and that was after the NRCC spend several hundred grand to swamp out his Democratic opponent.

This time, Democrat Mike Montagano is running a well-funded race, and has been surging in his own internal polls since April. When polls close on election night, this race will be one of the first to post returns — and if things look good for Montagano here, you know this is going to be a huge night.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

UPDATE: The DCCC’s first ad of this race is available here: