Tag: DCCC

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

The DCCC is out with four new ads in OH-01, NH-01, CT-04 and MI-09. All pretty good, I think the anti-Chabot one is the best. Good to see them picking up the pace. Also it looks like most of these where released a week ago but the DCCC has all the ads they are running up at their YouTube (which was invented by John McCain, by the way.)

Also in VA-10 Judy Feder has a new ad

Quite frankly, I’m not a big fan of it. She’s got a lot of money but isn’t doing what she needs to win this campaign and that’s too bad because she would be a great congresswomen.

Seeing any other ads lately?

Note: Kudos to Swing State who put Josh on their ‘Races to Watch’ list months ago!

See also at Blue Jersey .

On Friday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced that Josh Zeitz, the Democratic nominee for Congress in New Jersey’s 4th Congressional District, was added to their targeted Races to Watch list. It’s alphabetical, so you’ll have to scroll to the bottom to see Josh. 🙂

The targeting demonstrates that the DCCC believes this race is competitive and worth investment. Demographic shifts have created the unique conditions for beating 28 year incumbent Chris Smith. Democrats now enjoy a voter registration edge in the 4th District and consistently win the district at the Presidential, Gubernatorial and Senate levels. With boosted turnout and registration expected from urban areas like Trenton, Zeitz is poised for one of the biggest upsets of the cycle.

“We’re excited to have the DCCC engaged in the race,” said Zeitz campaign manager Steve D’Amico. “With our economy struggling and a representative like Chris Smith, who is more interested in introducing legislation to abolishing common, everyday birth control than he is in helping middle-class families, voters in the 4th District are realizing it’s time for change.”

The campaign has produced a video outlining Smith’s attempt to criminalize birth control, and you can view it by clicking below.

In late September, we hope to unleash a massive wave of direct mail and paid media targeted at swing voters in the district.  We have almost raised enough money to begin that effort, but we remain a bit shy of our target. Please contribute what you are able at Josh’s ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about why we need to elect Josh to Congress.

Earlier this week, the DCCC unveiled an unprecedented fifth wave of its highly-touted “Red to Blue” fundraising and support program for Democratic candidates running in GOP-held House districts. With the DCCC bolstering the ranks of this program with so many up and comers, it’s worth asking: just how valuable is this endorsement, and what can its participants expect in terms of tangible support?

The “Red to Blue” distinction is essentially the DCCC’s stamp of confidence in a local campaign. Roll Call has more:

The list started in the 2004 cycle. Democratic consultant Mark Nevins worked at the DCCC before the list became akin to “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval” for Democratic Congressional races.

“If a candidate is on the Red to Blue program, it is an easy way to identify people who the party believes have a realistic shot at winning,” he said.

In other words, the distinction is an arrow drawn by the DCCC for potential donors saying: Hey, this candidate is worth your time — and money. CT-04 candidate Jim Himes sums it up well:

“It certainly got us a lot of assistance from the DCCC,” Himes said. “It certainly helped with validation and credibility, and it helped to some extent with fundraising as well.”

But after seven months on the list, Himes said Red to Blue was more helpful in the beginning stages of his campaign.

“I guess I would agree that the Red to Blue program is more helpful early on than when it comes down to people making a decision about voting,” he said. “At this point, my critical challenge is really telling my story in my district.”

In other words, the earlier a campaign can secure this endorsement, the more valuable it is in terms of attracting national donors. (That’s not to say that late-bloomers can’t win – but more on that below.)

But what about attracting cash infusions from the DCCC itself in the form of independent expenditures? Looking at each of the DCCC’s four waves of R2B in the 2006 cycle gives us a similar answer: the earlier that a campaign is added to the program, the more likely the committee has been to make independent expenditures in that particular race.

Let’s go through each of the DCCC’s Red to Blue waves in 2006, and tally up how much the DCCC spent on each race. We’ll start with the first wave, and continue with the remainder below the fold. (UPDATE: As per suggestions in the comments, I’ve added up the NRCC’s totals in these districts, too — to give you a sense of how much of a bullseye gets painted on an R2B candidate’s back.)

Wave 1 – April 27, 2006:

Wave 2 – July 13, 2006:

Wave 3 – September 18, 2006:

Wave 4 – October 27, 2006:

Now, it’s pretty clear that the addition of so many races to the R2B program a week and a half before election day was mostly a “pat on the back” exercise for many of these candidates rather than a legitimate showing of support, although it’s worth noting that we’re looking at five congressmen today who came out of that last-minute batch.

However, just about every candidate in the September 18th and earlier waves received a direct helping hand by the DCCC’s IE shop – with the exception of blue seaters who never really needed the help (Hirono, Hare and Sutton), and Phyllis Busansky, who never really stood much of a chance against a candidate named “Bilirakis”.

So with all that in mind, here are the five waves of Red to Blue that the DCCC has announced so far this year: Round one, two, three, four, and five.

Special note: I could not obtain figures for FL-13, but I do know that the DCCC funneled some considerable resources here.

Somebody’s feeling confident over at the DCCC: hot on the heels of yesterday’s addition of NY-26 surprise primary winner Alice Kryzan to their Red to Blue program (the DCCC’s fundraising stamp of approval), they’ve promoted eight more candidates today.

FL-08 Alan Grayson

FL-18 Annette Taddeo

KY-02 David Boswell

NC-10 Dan Johnson

NE-02 Jim Esch

OH-07 Sharen Neuhardt

PA-15 Sam Bennett

TX-07 Michael Skelly

Of these candidates, Taddeo, Boswell, Johnson, Bennett, and Skelly all got promoted from the DCCC’s Emerging Races list. Grayson is the winner of the recent FL-08 primary, and Esch and Neuhardt have leapfrogged their way onto the list.

UPDATE (James): The DCCC has also added a few more candidates to its list of “Emerging Races”:

IA-04: Becky Greenwald

IL-13: Scott Harper

LA-01: Jim Harlan

SC-01: Linda Ketner

TX-10: Larry Joe Doherty

The NRCC reserved over $8 million for twelve districts earlier today as part of its second round of media targeting. Earlier this week, the House Republicans reserved nearly $9 million in ad time for 14 races. Here are the details on the NRCC’s second round, courtesy the Politico (we’ve added the DCCC’s reserved ad time for comparison):

All numbers are in thousands.

Special note on FL-21 and FL-25: The DCCC’s $1.4m reservation applies to both of these districts and FL-18.

In most cases, the NRCC continues to be out-gunned, although their $600K reservation in MN-06 is pretty surprising. Yeah, I know Michele Bachmann is a nutball, but given her district’s R+5.1 lean and her big cash-on-hand advantage over Democrat El Tinklenberg, this is one race that I would have cut loose if I were the NRCC and had to pinch pennies. Maybe they know something about this race that I don’t.

Late Update: We now have the hard-dollar sums for OH-02 and TX-22. (H/T: Real Clear Politics)

The NRCC has reserved over $8.8 million in ad time for 14 House races across the country, 11 of which are defensive moves. The Politico has the scoop while TPM EC picks up the details:

Really interesting that Idaho’s 1st is among the committee’s first wave here, and the sums that the cash-strapped committee is prepared to spend on defense in CO-04 and PA-03 is eye-popping. The Politico notes that the NRCC has reserved about two weeks worth of time (and more in some instances) for most of these races. The bad news for Team Red is that the DCCC has already blocked off $53 million for 55 districts.

In fact, the DCCC plans to outspend the NRCC in most of these 14 races, including: AL-02 ($598), FL-16 ($1.5M), LA-04 ($714K), LA-06 ($723K), MN-03 ($1.4M), MO-06 ($798K), NC-08 ($1.6M), NM-01 ($1.3M), NV-03 ($916K), and OH-01 ($928K). (UPDATE: I’ve updated the chart above to give you a district-by-district comp.)

Of course, these plans are completely adjustable, but with not much more cash in the bank than the size of this early reservation, the NRCC doesn’t have much room to pivot.

Here’s the damage:

The NRCC had a great July, but they’re still facing a huge disparity with the DCCC. Even at this clip, they’re never going to come close to running even with the D-trip.

On the Senate side, the DSCC is flexing its money advantage early, spending a generous $8.5 million in July. We’ll likely see similar (or perhaps even bigger) expenditures in August, with the DSCC going all-out in Oregon, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Colorado.

The latest independent expenditures from the DCCC, as compiled by SSP (cycle-to-date expenditures in parens):

• AK-AL: $18,100 and another $18,100 on direct mail against Don Young and Sean Parnell (CTD: $54,300)
• IL-11: $39,300 on a media buy, $16,000 on direct mail, and $1300 on phone banking in support of Debbie Halvorson (CTD: $267,000)
• NJ-03: $1,900 on phone banking in support of John Adler (CTD: $1,900)
• NJ-07: $13,100 on direct mail and $1,300 on phone banking in support Linda Stender (CTD: $66,900)
• OH-15: $15,700 on direct mail and $800 on phone banking in support of Mary Jo Kilroy (CTD: $69,400)
• OH-16: $12,500 on direct mail and $900 on phone banking in support of John Boccieri (CTD: $44,900)
• TX-22: $43,800 on a media buy and $24,400 on direct mail in support of Nick Lampson (CTD: $189,500)
• VA-11: $1300 on phone banking, $13,200 on direct mail, and $200 on web media in support of Gerry Connolly (CTD: $13,400)

And for the NRCC:

• CA-08: $21,700 on a media buy against Nancy Pelosi

If you’re scratching your head and wondering why the NRCC is sinking cash against Pelosi, PolitickerCA explains that the buy was made on nationwide cable (FOX, of course) and takes aim at Pelosi and other Democrats on the energy crisis. So, there you go.

And finally, from the Club For Growth:

• AK-AL: $33,600 on radio ads against Don Young

The DCCC’s IE shop is really kicking into gear, leaving the tight-budgeted NRCC in the dust. Here’s a round-up of the DCCC’s most recent independent expenditures, as compiled by SSP:

• OH-15: $1,350 on phonebanking and $15,700 on direct mail in support of Mary Jo Kilroy
• TX-22: $24,400 on direct mail in support of Nick Lampson
• IL-11: $20,450 on direct mail in support of Debbie Halvorson
• NJ-07: $13,100 on direct mail in support of Linda Stender
• OH-16: $12,500 on direct mail in support of John Boccieri
• PA-11: $80,000 on a media buy in support of Paul Kanjorski
• VA-11: $1,240 on phonebanking in support of Gerry Connolly
• AK-AL: $18,100 on direct mail against Don Young and Sean Parnell

I’ve seen a lot of people on Team Blue dismiss Lou Barletta’s chances in PA-11, but the fact that the DCCC feels nervous enough to continue to bail out Kanjorski’s ass (spending $260K to date) is a disturbing sign.