Texas is on track to pick up four House seats after the next round of Congressional re-apportionment. Matt Glazer explains what this means:
In any case, these 4 seats could mean big gains for us if Democrats have a say in how the new map is drawn.
It is easy to see a situation where Republicans gerrymander a map and solidify some Democratic seats but at the same time make current seats either more competitive or flip[] them completely. This is the exactly what Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and David Dewhurst did in 2003 with their unconstitutional map.
There is one way to have a say in the process and prevent another purely partisan map. A constitutional amendment in 1951 established the redistricting process and established the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB). The board is composed of the lieutenant governor, speaker of the house, attorney general, comptroller, and land commissioner. Let’s go through this really quickly; David Dewhurst, Tom Craddick, Greg Abbott, Susan Combs, and Jerry Patterson will determine the fate of these 4 new seats along with the 32.
All five of these folks are Republicans. Without a voice at the table, we’ll surely get railroaded once more. But there is hope:
We currently have 71 Democrats in the state house. If we can win back the House this cycle (pick up 5 more seats) we will have taken 1 of the 5 seats on the redistricting board.
Indeed, the TX House situation is already vastly improved from just a few years ago – it was 88-62 in the GOP’s favor after 2002. What’s more, the momentum is ours – we just won a special election last month in heavily Republican territory. Taking the House back this cycle would undoubtedly be very energizing. Should we fall just short, though, we’ll still have a second bite in 2010. That’s also when Texas will have statewide elections once more, which will give us an opportunity to contest some of the other offices which get a seat on the redistricting commission.
Nonetheless, while several other key legislatures (such as the NY Senate) are also on the verge of changing hands in our favor, I think Texas House may be the number one body to keep our eyes on this year.
UPDATE: Read this important comment from DCal, which clarifies the LRB’s role in redistricting. Bottom line: It’s not involved in federal map-drawing – just state. Still, federal redistricting plans must be approved by the legislature, which means the TX House will have a say along with the Senate and Governor. So taking it back is probably even more crucial than I originally understood it to be.