Tag: NRCC

The NRCC has just filed a $465,000 TV buy against Democratic Rep. John Murtha.

That ain’t chump change. Could we really see an upset here on Tuesday?

UPDATE: SSP is changing our rating of this race from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

LATER UPDATE: The DCCC has responded with a $450K blast of their own.

The following independent expenditures were filed by the DCCC and the NRCC in the last 48 hours:

Now, uh, I suspect that this post will be met with “scattered boos” once again, but keep in mind that the DCCC isn’t done yet — they will most likely be filing more reports tomorrow evening. (For instance, they have new ads up in WV-02 and VA-02.) Maybe we’ll see a surprise or two — or maybe not.

Faced with the likelihood of unprecedented November losses and piss-poor fundraising, the NRCC has been forced to make some very hard choices lately, including ones to cut the plug on GOP Reps. like Marilyn Musgrave, Tom Feeney, Michele Bachmann, and Joe Knollenberg. Understandably, though, some major GOP allies are furious with NRCC Chair Tom Cole for abandoning some staunch social conservatives without so much as a life preserver.

From The Hill:

The Family Research Council’s (FRC) political arm ripped Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) Thursday for withdrawing ad spending on behalf of two endangered Republican candidates.

FRC President Tony Perkins said in a letter to Cole, chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), that the committee “is abandoning social conservative candidates” by pulling ads from the reelection races of Reps. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.) and Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn.). […]

Perkins, an influential conservative leader, said in his letter that he believes Cole, whose committee has been hemorrhaging money in an uphill battle against Democratic congressional candidates, “made a grave error in judgment” by pulling ads from Musgrave’s and Bachmann’s districts.

“The left is attacking both of these outstanding women because they are true conservatives,” Perkins said. “They vote pro-life and pro-family.”

Perkins wrote that both candidates are in “winnable districts,” and that “pulling funds from their campaigns sends the wrong message to their supporters and gives their opponents a chance to produce headlines that the NRCC has undermined these campaigns.”

“This is no time to cut and run from a fight,” Perkins wrote.

He added that he will “urge supporters” of the FRC to stop contributing to the NRCC “until it starts supporting and fighting for conservative candidates in close races.”

Time’s almost up, Mr. Cole.

From The Hill:

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has cancelled its last planned week of ad buys in Michigan’s 9th congressional district, according to the Associated Press.

The NRCC had previously cancelled almost $320,000 in spending on behalf of Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-Mich.) between October 14-27, while still preserving a planned $314,000 in spending for the last week before the election.

The NRCC has now cancelled that last buy, spokeswoman Karen Hanretty confirmed to the AP, amidst redirections of independent expenditures in districts nationwide.

If you were looking for further evidence of just how disastrous Tom Cole’s reign at the NRCC has been, look no further. If the NRCC had done a better job of keeping pace with the DCCC’s fundraising, they would never have been forced to make the tough choice of cutting loose a veteran incumbent like Knollenberg.

A round-up of all the significant independent expenditures filed with the FEC today:

It was a $12.6 million day for the DCCC today, and they dumped cash in 51 races, including some first-timers like MN-06 (Bachmann), WV-02 (Capito), WY-AL (Open), and SC-01 (Brown). They’ve also hit the airwaves in KS-02, against the wishes of Nancy Boyda. (Good.) The NRCC, meanwhile, could only pop off a $1 million response (although they did spend $4 million yesterday).

I’m not particularly thrilled with the amount spent on Baron Hill or against Keith Fimian (an utter nobody, albeit a rich nobody), but I’m pleased to see a few more districts added to the big board.

The U.S. News & World Report:

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a “death list.” The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. “Rating 1” finds 10 Republicans “likely gone.” Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under “Rating 2,” nine Republican seats are listed as “leaning Democratic.” Under “Rating 3,” some 22 GOP seats are listed as “true toss-up.” The fourth rating, “lean Republican,” finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: “If there’s a wave, some could be in trouble.” The last “likely Republican” rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as “hopeful” GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as “possible” pickups.

Republicans facing the music? Or just a sly way of gaming expectations? In any event, I’d buy the full list for a dollar!

Here’s one House member that Republicans should add to their deathwatch, even though he will be re-elected: NRCC Chair Tom Cole.

(Hat-tip: Andy Dufresne)

UPDATE: “The Fix” says that the NRCC is pulling out of CO-04, FL-24, and MN-06. Maybe that’s true, but the NRCC did dump $375K against Democrat Betsy Markey in Colorado yesterday.

LATER UPDATE: The Politico says that the NRCC plans to pull out after their current $375K buy expires in Colorado’s 4th CD.

A round-up of all the major independent expenditures filed with the FEC in the past 24 hours:

The NRCC finally opens its wallet — they spent nearly $4 million today, while the DCCC threw down $3.8 mil (but were aided by groups like the Defenders of Wildlife and the Humane Society).

I’m sure the D-trip will be filing many more ad buys tomorrow. More details are available at SSP’s IE tracker.

September fundraising numbers for the four party committees:

Note that these figures do not include recent loans obtained by the DCCC ($15 million) and the NRCC ($8 million). I would expect their Senate counterparts to take out loans as well.

While we don’t yet know the details of the NRSC and the DSCC’s spending this month, the DCCC has made about $19.6 million worth of independent expenditures so far in October according to our IE tracker. By contrast, the NRCC has only spent about $6 million on IEs so far in October.

As her Republican opponent files the biggest single quarter fundraising report from a Kansas congressional candidate in the state’s history, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda (D-KS) actually finds herself increasingly more secure in her first re-election bid.

Even with a $681,000 quarter and running in a district that went to George W. Bush by double digits, Republican Kansas State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins woke up today to not only still find herself behind in cash-on-hand, but she also had to read that The Cook Political Report had moved the race in the Kansas 2nd out of the “Toss Up” column and into “Leans Democratic.”  

The question is: Why?

For those of us on the ground, it’s easy to see the answer to that question.

Over the course of the last 2 years, Boyda has been an able representative- never quite liberal enough for the liberals, and never quite conservative enough for the conservatives.  Instead she has been a very traditional Kansas Democrat, bucking the party when it doesn’t represent her district’s interests.  While that hasn’t always made her popular with lots different interest groups, it has left her quite popular and well-regarded back at home.

Also, the simple fact the folk back at home have seen so much of Boyda has made a massive difference in the way she’s perceived in district.  Boyda has held hundreds of public meetings, has been home nearly every single weekend (save the few she spent in Iraq and Afghanistan- including Christmas 2007), and her constituent services office has been open and accessible, potentially the very best in Kansas.

While those things certainly have insulated Boyda, in at least some regard, to the ceaseless partisan attacks she’s been bludgeoned with for two years, simply coming home a lot and being available only goes so far for a Democrat in an R+7 district.  Why, then, is a Republican like Jenkins having such a hard time gaining traction in this previously reliably Republican district- and why has The Cook Political Report moved this race out of the toss up category this late in the game?

All you need to do is open a district newspaper to find out.

Over the course of the last two weeks, Lynn Jenkins has been hit by two revelations that went straight to the core of her candidacy (the fact that, as a CPA and a competent state treasurer, she could better manage the fiscal house of the United States than Boyda) and have totally derailed her bid.

First: While campaigning against former Congressman Jim Ryun in the Republican primary, Jenkins skipped every single monthly meeting of the Kansas Public Employee Retirement System Board of Trustees- while that fund, which provides for the pensions of every state employee and school teacher in Kansas, lost more than $1 billion.

Missing board meetings certainly isn’t a sexy scandal, but it resonated in the district, if only because Jenkins had been hitting Boyda hard for months for Boyda’s infamous 10-minute “walkout” on Ret. Gen. Jack Keane from a 2007 Armed Services Committee meeting, with Jenkins saying Boyda wasn’t doing her job because she left the room.  Unfortunately for Jenkins, when the voters compared the two it was all too obvious who actually wasn’t doing their job and who’s lax attention to their duties had actually harmed the people of Kansas.

Jenkins dug herself deeper when she wouldn’t explain where she had been instead of at the meetings, only to state she was “busy” and that she has “a lot of balls in the air” at the current time.  Oh, also, Jenkins said she was never actually out of contact with the board, and that she communicated with everyone via email.  But, in the very same newspaper piece she was quoted saying that, the Executive Director of KPERS said:

(KPERS executive director Glenn Deck) said he hadn’t received any e-mails or phone calls from Jenkins recently and said he wasn’t aware of others receiving contact either.

“I don’t think so because I think I would be copied,” Deck said.

He also said he wasn’t aware of feedback Jenkins has provided to the board while she was away.

Ouch.

It got worse for Jenkins October 16 when the Topeka Capital-Journal ran a story revealing that, during her terms as state treasurer, the state of Kansas misallocated upwards of $15 million in motor fuel taxes in the way payments were made out to Kansas counties.  The accounting error that led to the mismanagement of funds wasn’t the fault of the Jenkins administration, and her staff did indeed find the flaw after using the wrong formula for six years.

But our story gets better.  So, for six years Lynn Jenkins either overpaid or shortchanged Kansas counties- millions of dollars potentially mismanaged.  After her staff discovered the error, she dashed off a letter to the governor’s office alerting her and then Lynn…did nothing…for two months.  Not a single word to any counties to let them know they might be asked to repay thousands back to the state in their next fiscal year- nor notification that they may be receiving extra cash, either.  By the time she got around to telling the counties what had happened, 2009 fiscal year budgets were already set and we can promise you not one county in Kansas budgeted an extra $150,000 just in case Lynn Jenkins screwed up.  If Jenkins had moved appropriately, counties might have been able to adjust to repay the state (or, of course, absorb new funds), but she didn’t.  

One last bit: Still to this day the treasurer’s office has not produced a spreadsheet showing where overpayments and underpayments have occured, so Kansas counties still have no idea what they might owe.  

Eventually someone’s going to have to pay for Lynn Jenkins’ mismanagement, and, sadly, it’s going to be the taxpayers of Kansas.

Lynn Jenkins’ star was near particularly bright- generally, the people of the Kansas 2nd seem happy with Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.  But, over the course of the last two weeks, Jenkins’ task ahead became much, much more difficult- all because she’s really not good at the job she already has.  When you’re running a campaign based solely on the fact you’re really competent and that you’ll be able to “clean up Washington,” nothing is more damaging that it being revealed that you’re really, really just not competent.

Boyda’s reelection certainly won’t be a blow out, and Jenkins has already tried her best to distort Boyda’s record in an effort to make her own record problems go away, but, for those of you wondering why The Cook Political Report had decided this race was a little less close than it was a couple of weeks ago, we hope this provides a little local perspective.

From The Hill:

The National Republican Congressional Committe (NRCC) has canceled nearly $320,000 in planned ad buys in favor of Rep. Joe Knollenberg’s (R) reelection efforts in Michigan’s 9th congressional district.

According to numbers obtained by The Hill, the NRCC has canceled its buys in the next two weeks, while preserving an expenditure in the last week of the campaign.

The NRCC canceled one buy from October 14-20 for $150,000, and another October 21-27 for almost $170,000. The preserved expenditure, to run from October 28-November 4, amounts to almost $314,000-just slightly less than the sum the NRCC had planned to spend in the race in the preceding weeks.

By my count, that makes eight ten confirmed districts (including OH-16 and NM-01) where the NRCC has scaled back their ad time (although, in FL-16’s case, it doesn’t look like they’ll need to spend much money to topple Mahoney there).

They must be bracing themselves for something big over at the NRCC’s headquarters.