Tag: PVI

(Excellent work.  From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

You may recall I did a few diaries last month where I explored the relationship between representatives’ voting records and the lean of their districts (see here and here). One other question I had wanted to work into my discussion was the role of the various ideological Congressional caucuses.

There are pretty clear differences between the voting records of members of the different caucuses, but does membership in particular caucuses correlate with a particular kind of district? And is any particular caucus generally ‘out-of-whack,’ where the members as a whole tend to overperform or underperform their districts? In particular, I was wondering about the Blue Dogs, who tend to get the lion’s share of the abuse from the left blogosphere. It’s well understood they’re the most conservative members of the House Democrats… but are they also the most underperforming?

For those who aren’t familiar with the caucuses, there are three major ideological caucuses for the House Democrats: the Progressive Caucus, which comprises many of the House’s most liberal members (and, generally, those from the most urban districts), the New Democrat Coalition, which, although it’s a lineal descendent of the Democratic Leadership Council, tends to represent the ideological midpoint of the Democratic caucus, and the Blue Dog Coalition, representing the most conservative Democratic House members (and, not coincidentally, most of the ones from the most rural districts). Also within the Democratic party are the Congressional Black Caucus, which has significant overlap with the Progressive Caucus, and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which tends to range across the Democratic spectrum. Likewise, although it receives less attention, there is a similar schism on the Republican side, between the Main Street Partnership, comprised generally of more moderate representatives in suburban districts, and the more conservative Republican Study Committee.

Here’s an instance where a picture is worth a thousand words: this chart has a box for each representative (grouped in rows of 10), arranged from most liberal voting record at top to most conservative at bottom, color-coded according to caucus membership. (For record, I’m using Progressive Punch Chips are Down scores, circa March 2008.) As you can see, there’s a pretty clear stepping downward from Progressive to NDC to Blue Dogs to Main Street to RSC. (You’ll notice a lot of squares where there are two, or in one case three, colors jammed in there. A number of people are members of multiple caucuses.)

Notice that this chart is a pretty good match for the following one, which arranges each representative from most Democratic-leaning district (as measured by PVI) at top, to most Republican-leaning district at bottom. In other words, in general, you can see the same basic clustering of Progressive (and CBC) members at top, NDC members below that, and a whole lot of RSC at the bottom. The swing-district middle is a bit more muddled here, split largely between Blue Dogs and Main Streeters with a lot of odds and ends.

While these two graphs show that, in general, there’s a pretty good correlation between voting record, district lean, and caucus membership, they aren’t connected and thus don’t show individual outliers who are either underperforming or overperforming their district leans. For that, let’s turn to a scatterplot that was originally put together by plf515 (from this diary). The vertical axis is how liberal the representative is (here measured by National Journal composite scores from 2007); the horizontal axis is the district lean. I’ve added the same caucus-based color-coding as the previous two graphs. (Note that this graph only covers Democrats.)

The diagonal line represents essentially the center of gravity for all the points on the graph. Dots close to the line represent those for whom voting record and district lean are a predictable fit. The further away from the line a dot is, the more of an outlier the representative is. Above the line, the far-away dots are representatives who are voting more liberally than one would expect based on the district (overperforming the district), while the dots far below the line are representatives who are underperforming the district lean with their voting records.

As you can see, the outliers aren’t consistent with any one caucus or any particular type of voting record: there are some Congressional Black Caucus members who are lagging their extremely Democratic districts (Bill Jefferson in LA-02, as well as Artur Davis in AL-07 and Kendrick Meek in FL-17, two of the four members of both the CBC and the NDC), and there are some Blue Dogs whose conservative records are low even in relation to their moderate or conservative districts (Jim Marshall in GA-08, Dan Boren in OK-02, John Barrow in GA-12, and Jim Cooper in TN-05). (The other two marked outliers are Jose Serrano, of the Progressive and Congressional Hispanic Caucuses, but located in the nation’s most Democratic district… and the purple one is, of course, Dan Lipinski of IL-03, who is unaffiliated although voting like a Blue Dog in a D+10 district.)

More generally, looking at the placement of the dots, they seem to follow the same general pattern: more Progressives and CBC members at the liberal ends of the spectrum, more Blue Dogs at the conservative end, a cluster of NDC members near the very middle. Looking at them in relation to the diagonal line, though, you can see some differences in where they are, relative to the overall center of gravity. The mass of the Blue Dogs tend to cluster below the diagonal line; eyeballed as a whole, they’re underperforming, albeit slightly. The same goes with the Congressional Black Caucus, which clusters below the diagonal line at the other end of the graph, where they tend to occupy the most Democratic districts in the country and are liberal but don’t necessarily have the most liberal voting records to match.

Clustered above the diagonal line tend to be the Progressives — or I should say the “Progressives only,” since many of the Progressive/CBC double-dippers tend to fall below the line — who tend to fall in the D+5 to D+20 range but also in the uppermost tier of liberal voting records. (The Massachusetts delegation alone seems to make up a sizable portion of this clump, along with a few stalwarts like Maurice Hinchey in NY-26 and Tammy Baldwin in WI-02.)

So… as the charts show, caucus membership corresponds pretty well with both voting record and district lean, although, naturally, there are lots of individual deviations. Here are some more data on the caucuses:

All Blue Dogs (49)

20 from South, 7 from Northeast, 12 from Midwest, 10 from West

Median PVI: R+3

PVI Range: D+13 (Baca) to R+17 (Matheson)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 86.43

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 95.65 (Loretta Sanchez) to 68.22 (Barrow)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 57.87

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 83.52 (Mike Thompson) to 29.82 (Marshall)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 76.06

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 93.76 (Arcuri) to 60.39 (Cramer)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 54.1

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 77.8 (Loretta Sanchez) to 43.5 (Marshall)

Bad Votes on Iraq Supplemental: 40 (81.6%)

Bad Votes on FISA: 34 (69.4%)

Bad Votes on ENDA: 14 (28.6%)

Bad Votes on Stem Cells: 9 (18.4%)

Bad Votes on SCHIP override: 1 (2.0%)

Median Rural % of District: 39

Rural % of District Range: 69 (Michaud) to 0.0 (Harman and Loretta Sanchez)

Blue Dogs Only (24)

12 from South, 2 from Northeast, 8 from Midwest, 2 from West

Median PVI: R+4.5

PVI Range: D+10 (Mike Thompson) to R+17 (Matheson)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 85.43

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 94.07 (Mike Thompson) to 72.99 (Marshall)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 53.96

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 83.52 (Mike Thompson) to 29.82 (Marshall)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 72.84

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 88.95 (Charlie Wilson) to 60.39 (Cramer)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 51.8

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 75.8 (Mike Thompson) to 43.5 (Marshall)

Bad Votes on Iraq Supplemental: 21 (87.5%)

Bad Votes on FISA: 18 (75%)

Bad Votes on ENDA: 10 (41.7%)

Bad Votes on Stem Cells: 8 (33.3%)

Bad Votes on SCHIP override: 1 (4.2%)

Median Rural % of District: 45.25

Rural % of District Range: 69 (Michaud) to 11.3 (Cooper)

Blue Dogs + NDC (20)

7 from South, 5 from Northeast, 4 from Midwest, 4 from West

Median PVI: R+2.5

PVI Range: D+12 (Schiff) to R+15 (Lampson)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 86.01

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 95.65 (Loretta Sanchez) to 68.22 (Barrow)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 53.37

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 81.4 (Loretta Sanchez) to 31.61 (Lampson)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 80.18

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 93.76 (Arcuri) to 64.94 (McIntyre)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 55.9

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 77.8 (Loretta Sanchez) to 45.8 (Barrow)

Bad Votes on Iraq Supplemental: 14 (70%)

Bad Votes on FISA: 9 (45%)

Bad Votes on ENDA: 4 (20%)

Bad Votes on Stem Cells: 1 (5%)

Median Rural % of District: 16.6

Rural % of District Range: 55.4 (Carney) to 0 (Harman and Loretta Sanchez)

[Note: There are also one Blue Dog/CBC member (Sanford Bishop), four Blue Dogs/CHC members (Cardoza, Costa, Baca, and Salazar), and one Blue Dog/New Dem/CBC member (David Scott).]

All New Democrats (59)

17 from South, 17 from Northeast, 8 from Midwest, 17 from West

Median PVI: D+5

PVI Range: D+38 (Greg Meeks) to R+15 (Lampson)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 93.52

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 98.29 (Capps) to 68.22 (Barrow)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 73.94

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 93.26 (Capps) to 31.61 (Lampson)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 85.42

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 94.75 (Courtney) to 64.94 (McIntyre)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 67.5

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 94 (Capps) to 45.8 (Barrow)

Bad Votes on Iraq Supplemental: 29 (49.2%)

Bad Votes on FISA: 16 (27.1%)

Bad Votes on ENDA: 6 (10.2%)

Bad Votes on Stem Cells: 1 (1.7%)

Median Rural % of District: 6.8

Rural % of District Range: 56.9 (Kind) to 0 (6-way tie)

New Democrats Only (33)

6 from South, 11 from Northeast, 4 from Midwest, 12 from West

Median PVI: D+7

PVI Range: D+28 (Crowley) to R+4 (Mitchell)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 93.99

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 98.29 (Capps) to 75.03 (Altmire)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 75.84

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 93.26 (Capps) to 38.2 (Altmire)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 87.72

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 94.75 (Courtney) to 75.03 (Altmire)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 70

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 94 (Capps) to 51.3 (Altmire)

Bad Votes on Iraq Supplemental: 13 (39.4%)

Bad Votes on FISA: 5 (15.2%)

‘Bad’ Votes on ENDA: 1 (3.0%)

Median Rural % of District: 5

Rural % of District Range: 56.9 (Kind) to 0 (4-way tie)

[Note: There are also three New Dem/CBC members (Artur Davis, Kendrick Meek, and Greg Meeks), two New Dem/CHC members (Gonzalez and Cuellar), and one New Dem/Progressive (Tom Udall).]

All Progressives (68)

9 from South, 21 from Northeast, 17 from Midwest, 21 from West

Median PVI: D+20

PVI Range: D+43 (Serrano) to R+1 (John Hall)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 97.24

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 99.26 (Baldwin) to 92.18 (Kucinich)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 89.11

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 97.19 (Baldwin) to 74.72 (Hare)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 94.82

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 98.49 (Ellison) to 83.74 (Kaptur)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 84.3

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 95 (6-way tie) to 66.3 (Kucinich)

Bad Votes on Iraq Supplemental: 1 (1.5%)

‘Bad’ Votes on ENDA: 3 (4.4%)

Bad Votes on Stem Cells: 1 (1.5%)

Median Rural % of District: 0.65

Rural % of District Range: 61.8 (Welch) to 0 (25-way tie)

Progressive Only (33)

2 from South, 14 from Northeast, 6 from Midwest, 11 from West

Median PVI: D+15

PVI Range: D+36 (Robert Brady) to R+1 (John Hall)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 97.23

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 99.26 (Baldwin) to 92.18 (Kucinich)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 89.14

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 97.19 (Baldwin) to 74.72 (Hare)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 94.98

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 98.03 (Hirono) to 83.74 (Kaptur)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 84.5

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 95 (Schakowsky, McGovern, and Baldwin) to 66.3 (Kucinich)

‘Bad’ Votes on ENDA: 1 (3.0%)

Bad Votes on Stem Cells: 1 (3.0%)

Median Rural % of District: 4.4

Rural % of District Range: 61.8 (Welch) to 0 (5-way tie)

Progressive + CBC (26)

7 from South, 5 from Northeast, 10 from Midwest, 4 from West

Median PVI: D+30

PVI Range: D+43 (Rangel) to D+10 (Bennie Thompson)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 97.26

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 99.03 (Jesse Jackson Jr.) to 93.97 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 89.52

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 96.07 (Jesse Jackson Jr.) to 77.38 (Corrine Brown)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 96.23

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 98.49 (Ellison) to 87.51 (Corrine Brown)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 84.3

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 95 (Conyers and Gwen Moore) to 67.7 (Corrine Brown)

Bad Votes on Iraq Supplemental: 1 (3.8%)

‘Bad’ Votes on ENDA: 1 (3.8%)

Median Rural % of District: 0.05

Rural % of District Range: 37.2 (Bennie Thompson) to 0 (14-way tie)

Progressive + CHC (8)

2 from Northeast, 1 from Midwest, 5 from West

Median PVI: D+23.5

PVI Range: D+43 (Serrano) to D+10 (Grijalva)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 97.73

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 99.14 (Linda Sanchez) to 95.66 (Gutierrez)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 90.43

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 96.61 (Linda Sanchez) to 80.98 (Gutierrez)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 94.59

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 98.23 (Grijalva) to 91.13 (Gutierrez)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 89.3

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 95 (Linda Sanchez) to 75.3 (Pastor)

‘Bad’ Votes on ENDA: 1 (12.5%)

Median Rural % of District: 0

Rural % of District Range: 16.4 (Grijalva) to 0 (6-way tie)

All CBC (39)

17 from South, 8 from Northeast, 10 from Midwest, 4 from West

Median PVI: D+27

PVI Range: D+43 (Rangel) to D+2 (Sanford Bishop)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 96.75

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 99.03 (Jesse Jackson Jr.) to 91.77 (Artur Davis)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 87.01

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 96.07 (Jesse Jackson Jr.) to 65.17 (Artur Davis)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 92.11

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 98.49 (Ellison) to 74.36 (Sanford Bishop)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 83.05

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 95 (3-way tie) to 61.3 (Artur Davis)

Bad votes on Iraq Supplemental: 5 (12.8%)

Bad votes on FISA: 1 (1.3%)

Bad votes on ENDA: 3 (7.7%)

Median Rural % of District: 0.1

Rural % of District Range: 52.3 (Butterfield) to 0 (17-way tie)

CBC only (8)

6 from South, 2 from Northeast

Median PVI: D+24.5

PVI Range: D+41 (Towns) to D+9 (Butterfield)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 96.48

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 97.57 (Alcee Hastings) to 95.14 (Jefferson)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 85.76

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 89.53 (Alcee Hastings) to 80.35 (Jefferson)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 89.52

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 92.19 (Al Green) to 86.54 (Jefferson)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 85

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 89.2 (Alcee Hastings) to 73 (Jefferson)

Bad votes on Iraq supplemental: 2 (25%)

‘Bad’ votes on ENDA: 1 (12.5%)

Median Rural % of District: 2.1

Rural % of District Range: 52.3 (Butterfield) to 0 (Towns)

All CHC (21)

6 from South, 3 from Northeast, 1 from Midwest, 11 from West

Median PVI: D+13

PVI Range: D+43 (Serrano) to R+6 (Salazar)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 95.66

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 99.14 (Linda Sanchez) to 85.24 (Cuellar)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 80.98

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 96.61 (Linda Sanchez) to 50.56 (Cuellar)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 87.38

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 98.23 (Grijalva) to 70.05 (Ortiz)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 76.7

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 95 (Linda Sanchez) to 50.5 (Cuellar)

Bad votes on Iraq Supplemental: 10 (47.6%)

Bad votes on FISA: 4 (19.0%)

‘Bad’ votes on ENDA: 1 (4.8%)

Median Rural % of District: 0.5

Rural % of District Range: 39 (Salazar) to 0 (9-way tie)

CHC only (7)

4 from South, 1 from Northeast, 2 from West

Median PVI: D+9

PVI Range: D+23 (Roybal-Allard and Sires) to R+4 (Rodriguez)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 92.65

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 97.26 (Napolitano) to 90.48 (Ortiz)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 71.91

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 88.7 (Roybal-Allard) to 64.63 (Ortiz)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 84.68

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 95.38 (Sires) to 70.05 (Ortiz)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 65

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 92.2 (Roybal-Allard) to 58.5 (Ortiz)

Bad votes on Iraq Supplemental: 4 (57.1%)

Bad votes on FISA: 1 (14.3%)

Median Rural % of District: 1.7

Rural % of District Range: 23.6 (Rodriguez) to 0 (3-way tie)

Unaffiliated Democrats (63)

10 from South, 25 from Northeast, 17 from Midwest, 11 from West

Median PVI: D+9

PVI Range: D+36 (Pelosi) to R+18 (Chet Edwards)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 95.39

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 98.91 (Pelosi) to 85.66 (Boyda)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 80.9

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 96.43 (Pelosi) to 55.93 (Boyda)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 88.56

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 98.54 (Tsongas) to 63.46 (Skelton)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 74.85

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 93.3 (Delahunt) to 53.7 (Chet Edwards)

Bad votes on Iraq Supplemental: 23 (36.5%)

Bad votes on FISA: 3 (4.8%)

Bad votes on ENDA: 5 (7.9%)

Bad votes on Stem cells: 6 (9.5%)

Median Rural % of District: 7.8

Rural % of District Range: 66.6 (Stupak) to 0 (8-way tie)

All MSP (37)

5 from South, 10 from Northeast, 15 from Midwest, 7 from West

Median PVI: R+4

PVI Range: D+6 (Castle) to R+14 (Granger)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 20.07

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 39.71 (Gilchrest) to 4.57 (Camp)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 6.74

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 25.29 (Gilchrest) to 1.14 (Calvert)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 14.18

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 31.41 (Shays) to 4.64 (Granger)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 39.3

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 48.3 (Gilchrest) to 20.2 (Calvert)

Good votes on FISA: 1 (2.7%)

Good votes on ENDA: 20 (54.1%)

Good votes on Min. wage: 28 (75.7%)

Good votes on Stem cells: 24 (64.9%)

Good votes on SCHIP override: 21 (56.8%)

Median Rural % of District: 21

Rural % of District Range: 58.6 (Camp) to 0.4 (Kirk)

All RSC (109)

56 from South, 5 from Northeast, 22 from Midwest, 26 from West

Median PVI: R+11

PVI Range: R+1 (Chabot) to R+26 (Cannon)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 4.18

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 24.75 (Tim Murphy) to 0.62 (Lamborn and Jordan)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 1.32

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 11.86 (Mario Diaz-Balart) to 0 (15-way tie)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 3.8

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 23.96 (Alexander) to 0.62 (Lamborn and Jordan)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 17.05

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 39.5 (Mario Diaz-Balart) to 6.7 (7-way tie)

Good votes on ENDA: 3 (2.8%)

Good votes on Min. wage: 20 (18.3%)

Good votes on Stem cells: 6 (5.5%)

Good votes on SCHIP override: 5 (4.6%)

Median Rural % of District: 25.5

Rural % of District Range: 73.5 (Aderholt) to 0 (Royce and Roskam)

[Note: There are two RSC/MSP members: Dave Camp and Mike Turner.]

Unaffiliated Republicans (54)

22 from South, 9 from Northeast, 15 from Midwest, 8 from West

Median PVI: R+8

PVI Range: D+3 (Saxton) to R+23 (Deal)

Median Progressive Punch 2007-08: 9.14

Progressive Punch 2007-08 Range: 36.43 (Chris Smith) to 0.77 (Boehner)

Median Progressive Punch Chips Are Down: 2.83

Progressive Punch Chips Are Down Range: 16.38 (Walter Jones) to 0 (7-way tie)

Median Progressive Punch Lifetime: 6.76

Progressive Punch Lifetime Range: 24.5 (Paul) to 2.71 (Boehner)

Median National Journal Composite 2007: 25.3

National Journal Composite 2007 Range: 44.5 (Chris Smith) to 6.7 (Boehner)

Good votes on Iraq Supplemental: 2 (3.7%)

Good votes on FISA: 1 (1.9%)

Good votes on ENDA: 11 (20.4%)

Good votes on Min. wage: 32 (59.3%)

Good votes on Stem cells: 7 (13.0%)

Good votes on SCHIP override: 15 (27.8%)

Median Rural % of District: 29.8

Rural % of District Range: 78.7 (Harold Rogers) to 0 (Bill Young and Fosella)

[Note: The Iraq Supplemental vote referenced is HR 2206 Roll Call 425. The FISA vote is S 1927 Roll Call 836. These were the Iraq and FISA votes where party discipline broke down the most; however, there have been a large number of Iraq Supplemental and FISA votes, and a bad vote on one of these by a representative does not mean a consistently bad position. Some ENDA votes have ‘bad’ in quotes to reflect that a handful of very liberal representatives voted against ENDA, presumably, from the left for being inadequate. The Region categories follow the basic 4 Census Bureau regions, with the exception of me counting Maryland and Delaware as Northeast states.]

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I thought I’d continue with the PVI vs. Vote Index project begun here and continued here and here. It seems like almost every permutation involving the different ratings methods (Progressive Punch, Progressive Punch Chips Are Down, ADA, and National Journal Composite) has been tried out now, so I wanted to try a new approach: focusing on particular important votes, presenting a matrix that shows who broke with the party on what, and throwing PVI into the mix. (If you’re like me, you constantly forget why you’re supposed to be angry at a particular representative, so it’s handy to have everyone’s black marks on one handy chart.)

I chose six votes to start with, three where Democratic discipline really seemed to break down (Iraq supplemental, FISA, and ENDA), and three where Republican discipline broke down (minimum wage, stem cells, and SCHIP veto override). “Iraq supplemental” and “FISA” are particularly difficult categories, because there have been many votes on each, and a lot of Dems have gone for more nuanced positions than can be encapsulated with one vote. For these categories, I chose the vote on each topic where Democratic discipline seemed to break down the most, and correspondingly, where the blogosphere engaged in the loudest and angriest freakout: HR 2206 Roll Call 425 on Iraq and S 1927 Roll Call 836 on FISA. (The final votes on these topics had much higher party unity.)

For each party, I have a table of how many times a representative voted against the party. Within each table, representatives are listed in order of PVI from highest to lowest. This doesn’t create as neat and tidy a relationship as we’ve been doing with the more thorough scoring approaches… but it shouldn’t take too much imagination to look at each table and form a qualitative judgment as to who’s fitting the district and who isn’t.

I’m also including representatives with no votes against the party but who are in districts in what we’ll call the danger zone (D+5 to R+5). These ones, maintaining discipline in the face of potentially hostile districts, are the ones we might think of as analogous to the ‘overperformers’ from previous diaries on this topic. (No one on the wrong side of the danger zone, i.e. Democrats in districts of R+6 or greater… has complete party unity.)

By way of analysis, note that the same underperforming cast of characters stands out here as in the more rigorously quantitative approaches to the PVI vs. Vote question: Lipinski, Marshall, Barrow, Artur Davis, Cooper, Costa. Likewise, the Republican overperformers (the ones theoretically vulnerable because of their wingnuttiness) also look about the same: Chabot, Walberg, Rogers (MI), Feeney, Roskam, Kline.

The good news is (and this was noted in previous diaries in this series): being in the majority is a real tonic for party discipline. Note how many more Republicans than Democrats broke with the party 3, 4, or 5 times. (Many of them are also in affluent suburban D+ districts and are feeling the heat… except for Todd Platts, who seems to have come out of nowhere with a new Club for Growth-related deathwish.) For the Democrats who broke the party line multiple times, they’re almost always members of the Blue Dogs and coming from rural southern or Midwestern districts (again, with the glaring exception of Lipinski).

Democrats

5 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Marshall	GA-08	R+8	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP

4 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Lipinski	IL-03	D+10	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
L. Davis	TN-04	R+3	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
McIntyre	NC-07	R+3	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
Shuler	NC-11	R+7	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
G. Taylor	MS-04	R+16	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells

3 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Barrow	GA-12	D+2	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Wilson	OH-06	D+0	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Tanner	TN-08	D+0	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Rahall	WV-03	D+0	Iraq, ENDA, Stem cells
Donnelly	IN-02	R+4	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Gordon	TN-06	R+4	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Melancon	LA-03	R+5	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Cramer	AL-05	R+6	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Peterson	MN-07	R+6	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Ellsworth	IN-08	R+9	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Lampson	TX-22	R+15	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Edwards	TX-17	R+18	Iraq, FISA, ENDA

2 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
A. Davis	AL-07	D+17	FISA, ENDA
Cooper	TN-05	D+6	Iraq, FISA
Costa	CA-20	D+5	Iraq, FISA
Berry	AR-01	D+1	Iraq, ENDA
Boswell	IA-03	D+1	Iraq, FISA
Snyder	AR-02	D+0	Iraq, ENDA
Ross	AR-04	D+0	Iraq, ENDA
Walz	MN-01	R+1	Iraq, FISA
Cuellar	TX-28	R+1	Iraq, FISA
Boyd	FL-02	R+2	Iraq, FISA
Stupak	MI-01	R+2	Iraq, Stem cells
Etheridge	NC-02	R+3	Iraq, FISA
Altmire	PA-04	R+3	Iraq, FISA
Mitchell	AZ-05	R+4	Iraq, FISA
Rodriguez	TX-23	R+4	Iraq, FISA
Bean	IL-08	R+5	Iraq, FISA
Boren	OK-02	R+5	Iraq, FISA
Salazar	CO-03	R+6	Iraq, FISA
Space	OH-18	R+6	Iraq, FISA
Mollohan	WV-01	R+6	Iraq, Stem cells
Hill	IN-09	R+7	Iraq, FISA
Chandler	KY-06	R+7	Iraq, FISA
Carney	PA-10	R+8	Iraq, FISA
Skelton	MO-04	R+11	Iraq, ENDA
Herseth	SD-AL	R+11	Iraq, FISA
Pomeroy	ND-AL	R+13	Iraq, FISA
Matheson	UT-02	R+17	Iraq, FISA

1 vote

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Towns	NY-10	D+41	ENDA
Clarke	NY-11	D+40	ENDA
Velazquez	NY-12	D+34	ENDA
Nadler	NY-08	D+28	ENDA
Wasserman Schultz	FL-20	D+18	Iraq
Emanuel	IL-05	D+18	Iraq
Andrews	NJ-01	D+14	Iraq
Weiner	NY-09	D+14	ENDA
Baca	CA-43	D+13	Iraq
Levin	MI-12	D+13	Iraq
Dingell	MI-15	D+13	Iraq
S. Davis	CA-53	D+12	Iraq
Kildee	MI-05	D+12	Iraq
Clyburn	SC-06	D+11	Iraq
D. Scott	GA-13	D+10	Iraq
B. Thompson	MS-02	D+10	Iraq
Hoyer	MD-05	D+9	Iraq
Berkley	NV-01	D+9	Iraq
Butterfield	NC-09	D+9	Iraq
Kaptur	OH-09	D+9	Stem cells
Reyes	TX-16	D+9	Iraq
M. Udall	CO-02	D+8	Iraq
Visclosky	IN-01	D+8	Iraq
Ruppersburger	MD-02	D+8	Iraq
Holt	NJ-12	D+8	ENDA
Schwartz	PA-13	D+8	Iraq
Gonzalez	TX-20	D+8	Iraq
G. Green	TX-29	D+8	Iraq
Higgins	NY-27	D+7	FISA
Dicks	WA-06	D+6	Iraq
Costello	IL-12	D+5	Stem cells
Kanjorski	PA-11	D+5	Iraq
Murtha	PA-12	D+5	Iraq
Michaud	ME-02	D+4	ENDA
Oberstar	MN-08	D+4	Stem cells
Sestak	PA-07	D+4	Iraq
Cardoza	CA-18	D+3	Iraq
Hinojosa	TX-15	D+3	Iraq
R. Larsen	WA-02	D+3	Iraq
Kind	WI-03	D+3	Iraq
S. Bishop	GA-02	D+2	Iraq
Baird	WA-03	D+0	Iraq
Giffords	AZ-08	R+1	Iraq
Ortiz	TX-27	R+1	Iraq
Mahoney	FL-16	R+2	Iraq
Gillibrand	NY-20	R+3	Iraq
D. Moore	KS-03	R+4	Iraq
Kagen	WI-08	R+4	Iraq
Spratt	SC-05	R+6	Iraq
Boyda	KS-02	R+7	Iraq
Holden	PA-17	R+7	Iraq
Boucher	VA-09	R+7	Iraq

0 votes

Rep.	District	PVI
Foster	IL-14	R+5
McNerney	CA-11	R+3
Arcuri	NY-24	R+1
J. Hall	NY-19	R+1
DeFazio	OR-04	D+0
Shea-Porter	NH-01	D+0
Doggett	TX-25	D+1
Hooley	OR-05	D+1
Obey	WI-07	D+2
B. Miller	NC-13	D+2
Yarmuth	KY-03	D+2
Perlmutter	CO-07	D+2
P. Murphy	PA-08	D+3
T. Bishop	NY-01	D+3
Hodes	NH-02	D+3
Klein	FL-22	D+4
C. Murphy	CT-05	D+4
Braley	IA-01	D+5
Hare	IL-17	D+5
Lo. Sanchez	CA-47	D+5

Republicans

4 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Castle	DE-AL	D+6	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Shays	CT-04	D+5	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Kirk	IL-10	D+4	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Gerlach	PA-06	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Dent	PA-15	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Reichert	WA-08	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Fossella	NY-13	D+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Ramstad	MN-03	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Pryce	OH-15	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Bono	CA-45	R+3	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Platts	PA-19	R+12	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

3 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
LoBiondo	NJ-02	D+4	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
H. Wilson	NM-01	D+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
B. Young	FL-10	D+1	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
McHugh	NY-23	D+0	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Davis	VA-11	R+1	ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP
Upton	MI-06	R+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
LaTourette	OH-14	R+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
English	PA-03	R+2	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
C. Miller	MI-10	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
Regula	OH-16	R+4	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Biggert	IL-13	R+5	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Capito	WV-02	R+5	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Freylinghuysen	NJ-11	R+6	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Gilchrest	MD-01	R+10	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Emerson	MO-08	R+11	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Walden	OR-02	R+11	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
D. Young	AK-AL	R+14	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

2 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Saxton	NJ-03	D+3	ENDA, Min. wage
Walsh	NY-25	D+3	Min. wage, SCHIP
P. King	NY-03	D+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Porter	NV-03	D+1	ENDA, SCHIP
Latham	IA-04	D+0	Min. wage, SCHIP
McCotter	MI-11	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage
C. Smith	NJ-04	R+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Ferguson	NJ-07	R+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Tiberi	OH-12	R+1	ENDA, SCHIP
Renzi	AZ-01	R+2	Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Murphy	PA-18	R+2	Min. wage, SCHIP
Turner	OH-03	R+3	Min. wage, SCHIP
Dreier	CA-26	R+4	ENDA, Stem cells
Buchanan	FL-13	R+4	Min. wage, SCHIP
Ros-Lehtinen	FL-18	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage
M. Diaz-Balart	FL-25	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage
Brown-Waite	FL-05	R+5	Min. wage, Stem cells
Kuhl	NY-29	R+5	ENDA, Min. wage
Wolf	VA-10	R+5	Min. wage, SCHIP
Petri	WI-06	R+5	Min. wage, SCHIP
L. Diaz-Balart	FL-21	R+6	ENDA, Min. wage
T. Johnson	IL-15	R+6	FISA, Min. wage
Hobson	OH-7	R+6	ENDA, SCHIP
Duncan	TN-02	R+11	Iraq, Min. wage
W. Jones	NC-03	R+15	FISA, Min. wage
Simpson	ID-02	R+19	Min. wage, SCHIP

1 vote

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Knollenberg	MI-09	D+0	ENDA
Weller	IL-11	R+1	Min. wage
P. Ryan	WI-01	R+2	ENDA
Keller	FL-08	R+3	Min. wage
Hayes	NC-08	R+3	Min. wage
M. Rogers	AL-03	R+3	Min. wage
Bilirakis	FL-09	R+4	Min. wage
Bilbray	CA-50	R+5	Stem cells
LaHood	IL-18	R+5	Min. wage
Forbes	VA-04	R+5	Min. wage
Calvert	CA-44	R+6	Stem cells
Rohrabacher	CA-46	R+6	Stem cells
Goode	VA-05	R+6	Min. wage
McKeon	CA-25	R+7	Stem cells
McCrery	LA-04	R+7	ENDA
Hulshof	MO-09	R+7	Min. wage
McMorris	WA-05	R+7	SCHIP
Campbell	CA-48	R+8	ENDA
Stearns	FL-06	R+8	Min. wage
Shimkus	IL-19	R+8	Min. wage
H. Rogers	KY-05	R+8	Min. wage
Heller	NV-02	R+8	Stem cells
Wamp	TN-03	R+8	Min. wage
J. Lewis	CA-41	R+9	Stem cells
Ehlers	MI-03	R+9	Min. wage
Issa	CA-49	R+10	Stem cells
Mack	FL-14	R+10	Stem cells
Whitfield	KY-01	R+10	Min. wage
Alexander	LA-05	R+10	Min. wage
J. Peterson	PA-05	R+10	Min. wage
Boozman	AR-03	R+11	Min. wage
Rehberg	MT-AL	R+11	SCHIP
Goodlatte	VA-06	R+11	Min. wage
Bonner	AL-01	R+12	Min. wage
Flake	AZ-06	R+12	ENDA
G. Davis	KY-04	R+12	Min. wage
Poe	TX-02	R+12	Min. wage
Everett	AL-02	R+13	Min. wage
Schmidt	OH-02	R+13	Min. wage
Granger	TX-12	R+14	Stem cells
Paul	TX-14	R+14	Iraq
Barton	TX-06	R+15	Stem cells
Marchand	TX-24	R+15	Min. wage
Aderholt	AL-04	R+16	Min. wage
Crenshaw	FL-04	R+16	Min. wage
L. Smith	TX-21	R+16	Min. wage
Coble	NC-06	R+17	Stem cells
J. Moran	KS-01	R+20	Min. wage
Bachus	AL-05	R+25	Min. wage

0 votes

Rep.	District	PVI
Chabot	OH-01	R+1
Walberg	MI-07	R+2
M. Rogers	MI-08	R+2
Feeney	FL-24	R+3
Roskam	IL-06	R+3
Kline	MN-02	R+3
Reynolds	NY-26	R+3
Mica	FL-07	R+4
Weldon	FL-15	R+4
Manzullo	IL-16	R+4
Camp	MI-04	R+4
Garrett	NJ-05	R+4
Gallegly	CA-24	R+5
Putnam	FL-12	R+5
Bachmann	MN-06	R+5
Graves	MO-06	R+5

This should be considered a work in progress, with improved versions likely to be published in the future, so please feel free to suggest 1) better ways of displaying this data (I intended to make the tables sortable, but SSP’s code doesn’t seem to allow that), and 2) what other 2007-08 votes are particularly important as litmus tests. There were a few others I was considering instead of ENDA, like the Employee Free Choice Act (not enough Dem defections) and the Peru trade agreement (not a clear liberal/conservative split… more of an internationalist/populist split in each party), so I’ll certainly consider adding additional categories.

UPDATE: Link to Google Docs for a copy of the spreadsheet here. I threw in Progressive Punch scores in case anyone wants to correlate votes on these big 6 against the broader scores.

Whilst almost all of the blogospheres attention has been focused on the Presidentials great things have been happening in the House. Below the fold to see the Democratic hits and misses in vulnerable Repub districts as well as a large number of retiring Repub incumbents in vulnerable districts also …………..

Once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

I thought it was time to have a look at the GOP House districts that generically lean Democratic or only slightly lean Republican to see how we are faring so far this cycle.

So here they are ranked in order of Cook PVI number every GOP district up to PVI R+5.9. Without further ado:

1) DE-AL – D+6.5,

The most Democratic House district occupied by a Republican has been a disappointment candidate wise. All of the declared candidates are at best 2nd tier. The conventional wisdom seems to be that this district is Castle’s as long as he wants it. ***sigh***

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

2) CT-04 – D+5,

The last House Republican in New England is facing the latest in a long line of challenging contests; one that we all hope he loses against top tier candidate Jim Himes.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

3) NJ-02 – D+4.0,

Surprisingly no confirmed Democratic candidate here yet. Did you know that Democrats won every State Senate district in this CD in 2007? That included winning one open GOP district and the defeat of a GOP sitting Senator!

IMHO potential Democratic candidates are waiting to see if State Sen Jeff Van Drew declares. If he does this one becomes a barn burner if not then LoBiondo probably lives to fight another day. ***Watch this space***

4) IL-10 – D+4,

2006 candidate and netroots hero Dan Seals is back for a rematch. Assuming he survives the primary, watch this one rage. Interestingly this district takes in part of Cook County with its fearsome Democratic machine. Unfortunately the Repub incumbent Kirk has more money fundraised than any other GOP incumbent this cycle. OTOH imagine this race if Obama is the nominee.  

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

5) NY-25 – D+3.4, OPEN RACE

Walsh has announced his retirement, 2006 candidate Dan Maffei is back for another go and to avenge his less than 4000 vote loss (He won 2 out of 4 counties). With Democrats picking up Repub districts in NY in 5 of the last 6 cycles chalk this one up as a gonna win for team blue.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

6) NJ-03 – D+3.3, OPEN RACE

Saxton is retiring and we got our first choice of candidate State Sen John Adler who announced before Saxton pulled the pin. This district voted 51% for Bush in 2004 and that won’t happen again and the Repubs are on the way to an ugly primary. Another blue state pick up for team blue.

7) NM-01 – D+2.4, OPEN RACE

Wilson is off to try and run for the senate and we look like having a big primary however this is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent and we only missed out by 900 votes last time. There are 40000 more registered Dems than Repubs so count this one as a win for team blue.

8) PA-06 – D+2.2,

Two declared candidates who are like options 14 and 15 for the party this one has been a massive disappointment. Like DE-AL this one seems to be Gerlach’s for as long as he wants it.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

***Another sigh***

9) NY-03 – D+2.1,

Amazingly not a Dem candidate to be seen in what may be the most Repub district in NY which is akin to being the heaviest light beer. In an ideal world State Rep David Bishop or Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi would run but don’t hold your breath for it to happen in 2008. Interestingly this district is the last of the GOP bastions on Long Island the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all moving into the Dem column over the last 10 years.

Don’t hold your breath over this one in 2008.

10) WA-08 – D+2,

2006 candidate Darcy Burner is back for a rematch and Reicherts fundraising has been anemic making me wonder if he will retire! BTW Burner has almost twice as much cash on hand as Reichert. Simple equation here – If Burner wins in King (Seattle) County by more than Reichert wins Pierce County then she wins the District. 2700 votes was the margin last time.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Hot Hot race!

11) PA-15 – D+2,

Definitely a race to watch as Sam Bennett has generated some netroots buzz and is a prolific fundraiser. In 2006 Dent only managed 53% against an underfunded last minute candidate who had to run in the primary as a write in to get on the ballot.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Dent is very vulnerable.

12) FL-10 – D+1.1,

Simple dynamic going on here if Young runs he wins if he retires team blue will pile in and win (See also PA-06 & DE-AL). Young has said he will run but methinks not as his fundraising has been truly terrible (less than 10k last quarter!)

One third tier candidate in for us but watch them pile in when and if Young retires.

13) NV-03 – D+1.0,

Another race not getting the oxygen it should. Daskas seems to be the real deal and raised over 200k last quarter.

Bush got less than 50% here in 2004 and there are slightly more registered Dems than Repubs.

14) NY-13 – D+1,

More registered Dems than Repubs in this district not surprisingly. 2 second tier candidates declared so far but the conventional wisdom is that we need a candidate from Staten Island rather than Brooklyn. Unfortunately to this point all 3 of the Dem State Reps and Senators from the island have stayed out.

Interestingly Recchia raised more than 200K last quarter so this one could yet get competitive.

15) IA-04 – D+0.4,

This race has an oddly low profile given how pro Dem it is. Admittedly the attention has been on the 1st and 2nd until now but we won them both in 2006. One 3rd tier candidate running in a year where either Dem pres candidate will win Iowa against McCain. Latham only got 57% in 2006 and is very vulnerable if we can find a decent candidate. Spencer has only 60K COH too.

16) MI-09 – R+0,

3 great candidates in a district that gave Bush only just 50% in a state where our House representation is definitely underdone (6 out of 15). Will 2008 finally be the year when a Repub district flips and will it be the 9th? Only time will tell. One of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan.

17) NY-23 – R+0.2,

Another GOP incumbent safe until he retires even some unions endorsed McHugh in 2006. Only declared candidate is 3rd tier Crummy website and poor fundraising) so nothing to see here move right along. UNLESS – Given that McHugh only raised 40K last quarter and has 200k on hand we must wonder if he will retire. If he does watch for us to pile in and pick up the district because Bush got 51% in 2004 here and because nobody is better at winning open GOP congressional House districts than the New York Democratic Party!

18) MN-03 – R+0.5, OPEN RACE

Ramstad is out and we got the candidate we wanted in State Senator Terri Bonoff. This district gave Bush 51% in 2004 and in 2008 minnesota will have a competitive senate race and should go blue for the Prez. Count this one as a win for team blue.

19) NJ-07 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

Ferguson is out and Stender is back for another go having won 2/4 counties in 2006 and losing by only 3300 votes. The GOP is heading into a monster primary with 8 declared candidates allready. Count this one in for team blue.

20) VA-11 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

The retirement of Davis has ensured that this district will flip. Located in Nthn Virginia which is rapidly trending Dem and with fmr Gvr Warner on the Senate ticket any one of the 3 Dems could win this one. Gave Bush a mere 50% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

21) OH-12 – R+0.7,

Personally I believe that Ohio will be ground zero in November but not in OH-12. All of the attention will be on the open races in the neighbouring 15th as well as the 16th. 3 second tier candidates here for us means that this 51% 2004 Bush District won’t be flipping in 2008 a real recruiting miss this.

22) NJ-04 – R+0.9,

An unfortunate recruitment miss pits a 3rd tier candidate against an entrenched incumbent. This district gave Bush 56% of the vote in 2004 and with competitive races in the 3rd and 7th and probably the 2nd there won’t be any excitement here on election night.

23) OH-01 – R+1,

This race is one of 4 barnburners in Ohio. We got the candidate we wanted in Steve Driehaus and he has 400K+ COH all of which will make this district one to watch on election night. Bush won this one by less than a point in 2004 and if we win Ohio this year then I think we win OH-01!

24) IL-11 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Weller is out and we and State Sen Majority leader Halvorson is absolutely top tier. She had about 400K COH in mid January and has raised at least another 70K since then. Despite the fact that this district gave Bush 53% in 2004 it will be flipping Dem in 08, particularly if Obama is the nominee. Count this one as a win for team blue.

25) OH-15 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Pryce is out and Kilroy is back to avenge her 1062 vote loss in 2006. She has 638K COH! in a district which Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

26) MI-11 – R+1.2,

Another Michigan swing district and one of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan. Both of our canidates are 3rd tier and this one won’t be flipping depsite only giving Bush 52% in 2004 and McCotter 54% in 2006. A frustrating miss at this point.

27) MI-08 – R+1.9,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

28) PA-03 – R+2,

A definite recruiting miss here this time out. 4 2nd tier candidates running with only reporting more than 100K cash on hand (English has in excess of 500K). Bush got 53% here in 2004 and English was held to 53% in 2006 by Porter who stupidly is running again as an independent thsu making it unlikely that this rece will flip. It will be interesting to assess this race agian post primary.

29) PA-18 – R+2,

A sleeper race this one IMHO. We have 5 Dems running in the primary so something must be going on here and it seems that our presumed top tier candidate is a very poor fundraiser as are all 5 of our guys. Wait for this race to evolve in the next few months; it could get hot or disapear without a trace.

30) OH-14 – R+2,

Well we got the candidate we wanted in O’Neill and in a district that only gave Bush 52.5% in 2004 so why isn’t this one top tier? Because there are 4 other competitive races in Repub districts in Ohio and also because O’Neill’s fundraising is lacklustre (71K last quarter). Which is a real shame because under other circumstances this could be a marquee race. Hope O’Neill runs again in 2010.

31) MI-07 – R+2,

At this stage this looks to be the only competitive race in Michigan in 2008 (although this could change). And it will be a barnburner. Kept below 50% in 2006 and facing at least 3 great Democratic candidates Walberg may yet still face a primary challenge from his Repub predecessor Joe Schwarz. This is definitely one race to watch.

32) AZ-01 – R+2.2, OPEN RACE

BARNBURNER Renzi has been on Democratic target list for ywars and now he has retired. Watch for a monster primary on our side although i expect top tier candidate State Rep Anne Kirkpatrick to be our nominee. She has BTW about 300K COH. If McCain is the Repub nominee this one will be tough but if not watch out for a great race.

33) MI-06 – R+2.3,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

34) MN-02 – R+2.7,

An intriguing race developing in this district. Our candidate Sarvi is top tier he got back from his 2nd or 3rd tour of duty in Iraq and declared his candidacy. Whilst his fundraising is a problem keep an eye on this one on election night Bush got 54% in 2004 but I reckon that if we win the MN Senate race we will win the 2nd also.

A dark horse race.

35) IL-06 – R+2.9,

Great embarrassment to Rahm Emanuel that we didn’t win this one in 2006 we are running another Iraq war vet. Unfortunately this one doesn’t have any money (40K as of mid Jan COH) and her primary opponent hasn’t filed with the FEC.

So two third tier candidates (go check the district blogs) means that this district is staying Repub this year. Let’s face it if we couldn’t win the open race in 2006 we won’t win in 2008 even if Obama is the nominee. Consider as well that there will be 2-4 competitive races elsewhere in Illinois.

36) OH-03 – R+3,

All 3 of the democratic candidates declared in the last 6 weeks and none is top tier. Too much action in other districts for this one to be competitive this time. Another recruiting miss.

37) FL-08 – R+3,

There will be a large number of competitive House races in Florida this year, maybe as many as 8! Whilst the 8th hasn’t received much attention yet it probably will. Amongst a group of 2nd tier candidates are a couple that could make this race competitive including one (Smith) who raised more than 100K last quarter and has 271K COH. And when you consider that Keller was held to 53% in 2006 and Bush only got 55% in 2004 and you have the makings of a great race. Watch this space.

38) NC-08 – R+3,

Kissell is back to avenge his 329 vote loss. He raised about 95K last quarter and should get some DCCC assisitance this time around.

Definitely one to watch on election night.

39) MI-04 – R+3,

Our candidate is second tier at best so this 54% Bush 2004 district will not be overly competitive in 2008. The attention in Michigan will be focused on CD’s 7 & 9 anyway.

40) CA-45 – R+3.2,

On paper this district should be competitive but no first tier candidate has emerged. The three 2nd tier candidates have not fundraised much and won’t be making this 56% Bush district competitive in 2008.

41) FL-24 – R+3,

3 candidates including fmr State Rep Suzanne Kosmas are running here. Kosmas has fundraised some 350K in 3 months and was heavily wooed by the party to run 2006 candidate Clint Curtis held Feeney to 58% in this 55% Bush district. Who knows what he could achieve in 2008 if he is the nominee. This race may get some traction and be terribly competitive or it may not. Wait and see  

42) NY-26 – R+3.5,

A sleeper race. We came close to knocking Reynolds in 2006 (52/48) and we have a much better candidate this time in Iraq veteran Jon Powers who has about 200K cash on hand. This one may fire up or fizzle.

43) OH-16 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Regula is retiring and we got our candidate of choice in Boccieri who has some 300K+ COH, twice the amount of his lead opponent. Bush got 53% here in 2004. Watch this one on election night if we don’t win this then Clinton or Obama don’t win Ohio IMHO.

44) FL-09 – R+4,

Held to 56% in 2006 Bilirakis could be in for a competitive race again this time with either Dicks or Mitchell set to campaign up a storm. Mitchell has 100K+ on hand and Dicks has 300K+ on hand. Like the 24th wait and see if this one lights up.

45) CA-26 – R+4,

Personally I think this district is a sleeper race. Netroots favourite  Warner is back to avenge his primary loss in 2006 and is sitting on 239K COH! With a dearth of competitive races in California this time (2) this race could really take off if things are going well for us on election night.

46) AL-03 – R+4,

A rare target for Dems in the south but unfortunately it looks like all of the attention will be focused on the open race in the 2nd where Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright looks like being a top tier recruit leaving the 3rd to languish in obscurity for this cycle.

47) IL-16 – R+4,

Our candidate Robert Abboud is a nuclear engineer which is pretty cool. Despite that he won’t be winning this 55% Bush district with only 40k odd COH, particularly with other competitive house races in Illinois.

48) FL-13 – R+4,

This race has never really ended and will be a barnburner this year. Jennings is running again and will self fund so we will see if the voting machines malfunction again.

49) FL-15 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Welson’s retirement means that a top tier Dem will get into the race. Is that Dem Higgs? Who knows. Watch this space to see how this race develops.

50) FL-18 – R+4,

The first of the three districts held by Cuban-Americans who are being challenged by yep Cuban-Americans. Whilst this one is the least likely of the three to be competitive it has the makings of a monster free for all. Watch this space in this 54% Bush district.

51) NJ-05 – R+4,

2 Second tier candidates here although Shulman has the potential to make this a competitive race having raised 140K last quarter and with an interesting life story to say the least (he is a blind rabbi). Unfortunately Bush got 57% here in 2004 and with 2 or 3 other competitive races in New Jersey I suspect that this one will struggle to get oxygen.

52) MI-10 – R+4,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

53) FL-07 – R+4.1,

There may be lots of competitive House races in Florida this cycle but the 7th won’t be one of them. Two second tier candidates running that won’t flip this district.

54) FL-25 – R+4.4,

The second of the Cuban American districts this one will be a hoot as two political heavy weights duke it out. This one should be one to watch.

55) IL-14 – R+4.8,

Hard to handicap this 55% Bush district. We have good solid candidates with variable fundraising performances. Probably best to await the outcome of the special election in March and then examine this race then.

56) MO-06 – R+4.8,

With our top tier candidate Kay Barnes and an open Gubernatorial race this one will be a barn burner. Keep an eye on this one on election night.

57) CA-24 – R+4.8,

Will Gallegly try to retire again like he did in 2006? If so this might become competitive as there are a couple of decent 2nd tier candidates on our side. May be competitive but probably won’t be.

58) VA-04 – R+5,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here, and we didn’t run a candidate here in 2006 at all.

Need I say more?

59) CA-50 – R+5,

Despite the enthusiasm of Leibham (187K COH) in particular I can’t help but htink that our best chance to nab this district was in the special election in 2006.

60) FL-12 – R+5,

Like the 7th this one won’t be providing any shocks on election night unfortunately. Reasonable 2nd tier candidate but nothing to see here.

61) IL-13 – R+5,

Our 3rd tier candidate has raised about 40K so far this cycle so don’t expect this race to hot up. An understandable recruiting miss given all of the open and/or competitive races in Illinois this time.

62) MN-06 – R+5,

About 4 months ago the Minnesota Democratic party were bullish that they could win all 3 Repub districts in Minnesota. I hope they are right but think they are worng. Both our candidates have about 100K in the bank but if this one couldn’t be won as an open race in 2006 it won’t be won in 2008. Watch the 3rd and 2nd not the 6th.

63) WV-02 – R+5,

Unger is out but Barth is in so wait and see how this one shakes out could be a fizzer or a firestorm. 57% Bush district.

64) WI-01 – R+2,

A couple of potentially decent 2nd tier candidates here who need to lift their fundraising game. This district only went 53% for Bush in 2004. But this race has yet to gain any traction. Will it do so? Who knows? This the most likely GOP district in Wisconsin to flip to us however, so wait and see.

65) WI-06 – R+5,

56% Bush district, Petri unopposed in 2006 and a 3rd tier candidate. Sound like a recipe for success? No I didn’t think so either.

66) FL-05 – R+5.1,

Third tier candidate means that this congressional district won’t be providing any joy in 2008.

67) NY-29 – R+5.2,

Massa almost nailed Kuhl in 2006 (52/48) and is back for another shot. In arguably the most Republican district in NY this one will be a tight race with Massa the strongest possible candidate we could have running.

68) VA-10 – R+5.3,

Whilst Bush got 55% here in 2004 and Wolf got 57% in 2006 don’t yet write this one off. With the coattails from the senate race this one may be winnable particularly given that 2006 challenger Judy Feder is back and has almost 500k COH! If we do well in the house on election night this one could well flip whilst everyone os focused on the 11th.

69) IL-18 – R+5.5, OPEN RACE

Don’t yet have a candidate as our guy Versace quit the race after filing closed. The Dem county chairs will appoint a candidate after the primary but don’t expect them to win even if Obama is our nominee.

70) NM-02 – R+5.7, OPEN RACE

A slew of democratic candidates running here and the open senate race has NM Dems talking up our chances here with some justification. If McCain is the repub nominee then forget it but otherwise our 40,000 registration advantage might us over the line in this 57% 2004 Bush district.

71) VA-02 – R+5.9,

Businessman and political rookee Glenn Nye is our candidate and he is keen but 2nd tier. This one won’t be flipping on election night and has been a real recruiting miss as our first choice declined the opportunity. 57% Bush district in 2004.