Tag: SC-02

Public Policy Polling (9/10-11, registered voters):

Rob Miller (D): 44

Joe Wilson (R-inc): 43

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Whoa. Based on some earlier teasing from PPP’s Tom Jensen, it sounded like Wilson’s outburst against Obama was not hurting him at all in his district, but that’s clearly not the case according to the complete results of the poll. Voters disapprove of Wilson’s outburst by a 62-29 margin, and 49% say that they’re less likely to vote for him (with 35% being more enthused to re-elect him). That’s despite a bare plurality of voters thinking that Obama was actually telling the truth about his health care plan’s coverage of illegal immigrants (46-42).

I guess that New York Times piece filled with gushing praise for Wilson from back home may need to be re-examined…

UPDATE: According to Roll Call, a “GOP source” is claiming that Wilson has raised $700,000 since his outburst in Congress. There’s no way to tell if that number is utter bullshit (which I suspect it could be), as the GOP has no real widely-used equivalent of Actblue that serves as a publicly-viewable online fundraising conduit. The only comparable tool they have, Slatecard, shows a $725.00 tally for Wilson. Considering that Slatecard has redirected its main page traffic to a special “Support Joe” page, that’s pretty pitiful. Third quarter fundraising reports will be due on October 15th, so we’ll have to wait to find out just how fiercely GOP donors are rallying behind Wilson. Until then, I suspect that part of that $700K figure may include a few “pledges”.

LATER UPDATE: Miller’s campaign has said that it’s pulled in a million bucks in the past 48 hours.

• CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore wants you to remember that he’s still running against Carly Fiorina, regardless of what the NRSC tries to tell you. When John Cornyn sent out some platitudes referring to his strong recruits in Kelly Ayotte and Carly Fiorina, DeVore let the world know in no uncertain terms what he really thinks of the NRSC.

“I welcome Senator Cornyn’s endorsement of Carly Fiorina, my probable opponent for the Republican nomination to defeat Barbara Boxer in 2010. Under John Cornyn, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has racked up an impressive string of endorsements in support of non-conservative, unpopular, poorly vetted candidates across the nation. These candidacies have thus far gone on to flounder or implode.”

Questions continue to circulate about HP’s sales of hundreds of millions of dollars in printers and other equipment to Iran, despite the bans on trade with the nation… and more generally about her ability to close the deal in view of how poorly CEOs have done in statewide races before.

• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford’s prospects have seemed to be on a roller coaster ride since his Appalachian Trail adventure, and this week he’s going through another dip: now the state GOP has called for his resignation. State party chair Karen Floyd made the announcement yesterday evening.

• NC-10: Congratulations to Rep. Patrick McHenry; one of the Beltway’s most eligible bachelors, he’s finally off the market. He announces that he’s engaged to Giulia Cangiano, a GAO economist whom he met through mutual friends.

• OH-17: He’s baaaack! Ex-Rep. Jim Traficant is out of prison, and already talking about running for office. He says there’s a 50/50 chance he’d run for his old seat, although it’s held by a Democrat, Tim Ryan. That didn’t stop him before; he ran against Ryan as an independent in 2002 and got 15% of the vote. Traficant is beaming down to a local teabagging function this weekend to get reacquainted with his constituents.

• OH-18: Although Republicans were disappointed when they didn’t get state Sen. Jimmy Stewart to run, they’ve found another state Senator to go up against Rep. Zack Space: Bob Gibbs of Holmes County. Most of Gibbs’ district is in the 16th, but Holmes County is in the 18th.

• PA-07: Republican Pat Meehan, the former US Attorney for eastern Pennsylvania, who recently bailed out of the gubernatorial primary, is ready to announce his candidacy in the 7th, where Rep. Joe Sestak is leaving behind an open seat. Meehan will make his formal announcement on Monday. Although the seat is D+3, Meehan (the former DA of Delaware County) is strong enough to make this race a very competitive even against highly touted Dem state Rep. Bryan Lentz.

• SC-02: Both heckler Joe Wilson and his Democratic opponent, Rob Miller, are now raising money like gangbusters. Miller is up above $750,000 in contributions now since the Obama address. Wilson has also raised $200,000, although not much of that seems to be coming online: at SlateCard, the GOP equivalent of ActBlue, he’s raised a total of $620 from 13 supporters. PPP‘s Tom Jensen, who polled SC-02 last night, is teasing bad results for Wilson.

• VA-05: Although this guy seems to be the only GOP candidate in the 5th so far, don’t expect him to be the nominee… especially now that he was just convicted on a concealed weapons violation. Bradley Rees was fined $100 in a local court after police found two pistols in his glove compartment. Most attention focused on state Sen. Rob Hurt as the likely GOP challenger to Rep. Tom Perriello.

• FL-Sen: Today is the day we say goodbye to Mel Martinez, resigning to… well, he hasn’t figured it out yet. Martinez leaves sounding rather downbeat, having been pilloried by much of his party for his work on immigration. And today we say hello to George LeMieux, Charlie Crist’s former right-hand man and now body-double in the Senate. Interesting trivia: Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer the youngest Senator; LeMieux is a youthful 40.

• MA-Sen: The rumor du jour coming out of the Bay State is that Andy Card, the former Bush White House chief of staff, is interested in the Senate special election for the GOP. Card would be a long-shot (as would any Republican), but would at least come to the race armed with a giant Rolodex full of donors. (Wait… do people even use Rolodexes any more?)

• UT-Sen: Is Bob Bennett just ready for retirement, or is he trying to move to the left of the the gaggle of far-right primary challengers, hoping they split the wingnut vote and let him win by occupying all of the quasi-moderate Huntsman-style space in the GOP field? Either way, he took a few provocative actions yesterday, as one of only four GOPers to stand and applaud Barack Obama’s call-out of the “death panel” lie last night — which earned him the spot of Public Enemy #1 at RedState — and earlier as one of only five GOPers to vote in favor of cloture on the Cass Sunstein nomination, who currently holds the #2 spot on the list that Glenn Beck is holding in his hand.

• NY-Gov: This is a weird-ass rumor, but apparently several different sources are telling the Weekly Standard that Hillary Clinton may bag on being Secretary of State in order to run for Governor of New York. Take with… I dunno, is there something much stronger than salt? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani was supposed to be in the middle of a power play involving remaking the leadership of the state GOP in preparation for a gubernatorial run, but seems to be losing that proxy battle, as the insufficiently-pro-Rudy Ed Cox still seems on track to take over as state GOP chair.

• TN-Gov: Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge in the GOP primary for the open gubernatorial race in Tennessee, according to his own polling, done by the Tarrance Group. Wamp has 22% of the vote, followed by Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey at 15, Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons at 14, and Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam at 12. Wamp also led the field with 22 in a poll several months ago from Southern Political Report.

• CA-11: There are already a bunch of next-to-no-names running against Jerry McNerney in the R+1 11th, but the GOP has dug up someone who’s at least one notch above that: Tony Amador, the former U.S. Marshal for the Eastern District of California under the Bush administration, giving him some sort-of-non-partisan law-and-order cred. Amador was the son of undocumented immigrants — but does that make him the kind of courageous by-the-bootstraps story that Republicans love, or unacceptable to the GOP’s rabid nativist base?

• MO-08: Here’s an appealing-sounding recruit for the Dems to go against Jo Ann Emerson: college instructor and Army vet Tommy Sowers. He served two tours in Iraq, then taught at West Point, and now teaches at Missouri University of Science and Technology. He’ll still have an uphill fight against Emerson, who hasn’t drawn tough competition since her initial 1996 election, in this district that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff lately at R+15.

• SC-02: If last night were a movie, the poster would say “Starring Barack Obama, and introducing Joe Wilson!” With one over-the-top line of dialogue, Wilson was catapulted from back-bench anonymity, to front-and-center among one-dimensional cartoonish House Republican villains, right next to Michele Bachmann and Jean Schmidt. While Wilson privately apologized last night, he is refusing today to publicly apologize in the House well, and Democratic House leadership seems eager to let that slide, not wanting to get distracted from the more pressing matter of health care. However, the assault from the netroots has been merciless; Wilson’s 2010 opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller (who came within 8% of Wilson in 2008 in this R+9 district), has hit the fundraising jackpot, raising over $200K since last night according to the DCCC. (Prior to last night, Miller had $49K CoH while Wilson had $212K.) This includes $135K alone at Act Blue (hint hint). UPDATE: PPP teases that they’re going into the field tonight to poll SC-02; they’re asking for help in drafting the poll, so be sure and give them a hand.

• CA-St. Ass.: In case you were under a rock yesterday (or had a particularly aggressive work-safe web-blocker), Republican Mike Duvall resigned immediately from his state Assembly seat in northern Orange County after getting caught on an open microphone talking in lascivious detail about his sexual transactions with a oil-and-gas lobbyist. The resulting special election in AD-72 doesn’t seem likely to go to the Dems — Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby is set to run for the seat — but it’s the least hardcore part of the OC, where John McCain won only 50-47, so it’s worth paying some attention. (See californianwonder‘s diary for more.)

• House: Here’s a GOP poll that I’m sharing simply because of the sheer irrelevance of its premise: that Nancy Pelosi is the most polarizing House Speaker since Newt Gingrich. Remember that there was exactly one Speaker in between Gingrich and Pelosi. Should it be any surprise that the highly visible Pelosi is considered more polarizing than the shapeless, flavorless DeLay-puppet Dennis Hastert… or that the GOP paid good money to ascertain that?

• IL-Sen: Tempted by Lisa Madigan’s titanic poll numbers against all comers, and her public statement of reconsidering the Senate race, the DSCC has started actively courting Madigan to get into the Senate race. This news comes from Madigan herself, who still maintains that her main focus is the governor’s race (but, if you read the fine print, seems to be firing warning shots across Chris Kennedy’s bow to keep him from jumping into the Senate race). Madigan’s interest can’t be good news for Alexi Giannoulias, especially as concerns over his handling of the state college savings program are taking a bit of the bloom off his rose.

• FL-Sen: Movement conservatives are tying themselves in knots trying to decide how to react to apostate Charlie Crist’s entry into the Senate race in Florida. The Club for Growth gave a tepid reaction, saying that Crist can still redeem himself by opposing the tax hikes proposed in the new state budget. On the other hand, Grover Norquist, the CfG’s patron saint, sounded a note of realpolitik, saying that Crist may be the best candidate “in Florida.” The conservative blogosphere, however, isn’t giving an inch, trying to organize a boycott on giving funds to the NRSC after John Cornyn weighed in on Crist’s behalf.

• MN-Sen: Norm Coleman is getting buried under legal bills, and not all of them are related to his tiresome contesting of Al Franken’s election. He just requested for FEC permission to start tapping his campaign funds for defense attorney fees related to allegations that sketchy Coleman benefactor Nasser Kazeminy was funneling payouts to Coleman through Coleman’s wife. Would GOP donors be willing to keep funding Coleman if they knew their donations were going to his defense attorneys and not the futile Franken fight? That hasn’t stopped Coleman’s Senate friends from continuing to solicit donations for him, as compiled in this video.

• MO-Sen: Rep. Roy Blunt pulled down a couple of expected but important endorsements in his quest to become Missouri’s next Senator: Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, the last member of Missouri’s House Republicans to get behind him, and Sen. Kit Bond, whose seat Blunt is looking to fill.

• OH-15: Ohio voters may get the chance to add even more Steves to their House delegation. Former GOP state Sen. Steve Stivers, who narrowly lost the open seat race in OH-15 to Mary Jo Kilroy last year, is contemplating another shot at the race, with lots of urging from John Boehner. (Ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is already committed to a rematch against Rep. Steve Driehaus in nearby OH-01.)

• SC-02: Speaking of rematches, backbench GOP Rep. Joe Wilson will have to face off again versus Iraq vet Rob Miller, who held Wilson to a surprising 54-46 margin in 2008 without DCCC help. Miller should be able to count on a higher-profile run this time.

• Mayors: City councilor Jim Suttle squeaked past Republican Hal Daub (former mayor and Representative) to hold the open Omaha mayor’s seat for Democrats. (The position is officially nonpartisan, but the race was fought along clearly partisan lines, which favored Suttle as Democrats hold a 44-33 registration edge within the city.) Suttle won by 1,500 votes, by a 51-49 margin.

• NRSC/NRCC: The NRSC and NRCC announced yesterday that Alaska governor Sarah Palin would headline their fundraising dinner in June, which is a big ‘get’ since she couldn’t be bothered to come out all the way to DC for CPAC. The Anchorage Daily News then reported that Palin wouldn’t be attending after all. Turns out that one hand of PalinCo doesn’t know what the other is doing… the appearance was arranged through SarahPAC, while the actual governor’s office had no idea this was happening. The NRCC and NRSC still say “that to their knowledge” she’s still coming.

• SC-01, SC-02: Linda Ketner is sounding a little iffy about a rematch against Henry Brown, worried about diminished African-American turnout in an off-year election (and also the costs; even wealthy philanthropists get hit by the recession). Former state rep. Mike Barber and state rep. Leon Stavrinakis are possibilities if she demurs. Next door, though, Iraq vet Rob Miller has begun fundraising for a rematch against Joe Wilson.

• OR-04: Peter DeFazio may get his first substantive challenger in ages; the GOP is recruiting Springfield (the district’s 2nd largest city) mayor Joe Quimby Sid Leiken to run. While DeFazio would still be a heavy favorite in such a race, he’s been mentioned frequently as a potential 2010 gubernatorial candidate, and in this D+0 district the GOP could be competitive with an open seat.

• VA-02, VA-05, VA-11: Southern Political Report takes a look at potential challengers to the three new Virginia freshmen. In VA-02, the only Republican in the race so far is Chuck Smith, an African-American, former chair of the Virginia Beach GOP, and an ex-Navy JAG, although moderate state senator Ken Stolle and Virginia Beach mayor Will Sessoms are eyeing the race. In VA-11, wealthy businessman Keith Fimian is interested in a rematch, but so is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, who recently narrowly lost the special election to replace Gerry Connolly as chairman of the Fairfax County Board.

• CT-Sen: Robbie Simmons may not have the GOP field to himself in his bid to unseat Chris Dodd: CT GOP Chairman Chris Healy tells The Hill that former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri will also run in the Republican primary. (J)

• AL-02: Add another name to the retread watch — state Rep. Jay Love says he’s considering challenging frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright in a rematch next year. Another name tossed around as a potential candidate for the GOP is none other than George Wallace, Jr., who lost an open seat race in this very same district as a Democrat in 1992 to Terry Everett. (J)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

SC-01

Linda Ketner (D): 37

Henry Brown (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5%)

SC-02

Rob Miller (D): 35

Joe Wilson (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-10

Daniel Johnson (D): 37

Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±5%)

If a year ago… or heck, even a month ago… you’d told someone that we’d be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.

Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don’t suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn’t even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.

The only race of the three that’s within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can’t be ruled out.

South Carolina GOP Rep. Joe Wilson must love his Democratic opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller.

Wilson apparently loves Miller so much, that he posted one of Miller’s press releases attacking him for steadfastly supporting George Bush’s “failed” education policies.

The release is still available on Wilson’s campaign web site (posted under Wilson’s own name), and ends with a ringing endorsement of his Democratic challenger:

Today, Wilson’s Democratic challenger Rob Miller made the following statement about the first day of Wilson’s tour for the status quo and “No Child Left Behind”:

“We need change in Washington, not more of the same. Congressman Wilson’s bus tour is all about championing the way Washington does business. Congressman Wilson’s support for ‘No Child Left Behind’ is just wrong. It’s an unfunded federal mandate that forces teachers to teach for the test instead of truly educating our children. It’s about time Washington stop telling local communities how to educate our children.

I’m sure that Mr. Miller very much appreciates Joe Wilson’s kindly assist in disseminating this press release as widely as possible.

(Hat-tip to reader LH for the scoop.)

165 of 166 Precincts Reporting

Leslie Byrne	8,004	33.4%
Gerry Connolly	13,856	57.8%

Virginia Results: VA SBE | Associated Press

379 of 379 Precincts Reporting

Blaine Lotz	8,177	33%
Rob Miller	16,804	67%

South Carolina Results: SC SEC | Associated Press

9:18PM: The AP has called VA-11 for Gerry Connolly.

8:52PM: Linda Ketner wins the SC-01 Dem primary.

8:45PM: The AP has called the SC-02 primary for Rob Miller!

8:30PM: With 42% in, Ketner is starting to pull away at 63% to Frasier’s 37%, and Judy Feder wins the Dem nod in VA-10.

8:18PM: Miller is back up 60-40 with 37% reporting.

8:10PM: Lotz just opened up an 8 point lead on Miller with 23% reporting. Over in SC-01, Ketner has a 10 point lead with 10% reporting.

7:58PM: Something to keep an eye on: Linda Ketner, a fundraising powerhouse in SC-01, is only ahead of her primary opponent, Ben Frasier, by 56-44 with 4% in.

7:55PM: I’m back, and Connolly is blowing Byrne away.

7:32PM Eastern: I won’t be updating these numbers for a few minutes, as I’m just going to get a quick bite to eat. Please check the results links above for the latest updates. Thanks.

---

Polls close in Virginia and South Carolina at 7pm Eastern. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns in two key races: VA-11, where Leslie Byrne and Gerry Connolly are facing off, and SC-02, where voters are choosing between fighting Democrats Rob Miller and Blaine Lotz.

Another month, another round of elections. Once again, the Swing State Project brings you the month in races worth watching:

June 3: This is going to be a big day.

• AL-02: With Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring at the end this term, the GOP field is large and noisy to replace him. The players include: State Rep. Jay Love, state Rep. David Grimes, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke, TV station executive David Woods, and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. With such a crowded and well-funded field, a 7/15 runoff is all but inevitable. Watch for Smith and one of Love or Woods to advance to the next round.

  I’m hoping that Smith is the GOP victor here, if for no other reason than the fact that she’s dumber than a sack of hammers.

  On the Democratic side, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright will face off with Alabama NOW President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley. Bright’s campaign has been slow to get started, whereas Sabel has won a number of endorsements. Still, Bright should probably be okay based on name recognition.

• AL-05: Another open seat here, this one left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. State Sen. Parker Griffith of Huntsville is the Democratic front-runner and won’t have any problems in his primary.

  Republicans will decide between insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker, businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie, former state Rep. Angelo Mancuso (a turncoat Democrat), ’06 candidate Ray McKee, and a number of also-rans. Parker is thought to be the favorite, but Guthrie has invested a significant amount of her own resources on the race.

• CA-04: This one should be interesting. With John Doolittle being put out to pasture, Republicans will choose between conservative icon Tom McClintock, a state Senator from southern California, and former Rep. Doug Ose. This has been a bloody and expensive primary, but the winner will still have a big advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in this R+10.9 district.
• IA-03: Democrats will go to the polls to decide the fate of longtime Rep. Leonard Boswell, who is receiving a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ed Fallon. In a low-turnout affair, anything could happen, but keep in mind that the lone public poll of this race — from Research 2000 in late April — showed Boswell ahead by a wide margin.
• NJ-Sen: A big event. Not content to “wait his turn”, Rep. Rob Andrews is waging a rough primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). A recent Rasmussen poll gave Lautenberg a 30-point lead here.

  Republicans will choose between ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer, crypto-fascist state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and college professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul acolyte.

• NJ-03: Republicans were initially very high on Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin VP, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton in this South Jersey distrct. However, Myers’ primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly has descended into a squabbling mess, and neither candidate has been able to match the fundraising juggernaut of the Democratic candidate, state Sen. John Adler. I’m rooting for Kelly to win here, but I like Adler’s chances against either Republican.
• NJ-07: The GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson appears to be up in the air between state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. It’s unclear to me which candidate would be stronger in the general election. Ex-Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield and Scotch Plains Mayor Marty Marks will also have their names on the ballot.

  State Assemblywoman Linda Stender will be carrying the Democratic banner once again in this tossup district.

• NM-Sen: This open seat race has caused a domino effect all over New Mexico politics, with all three of the state’s House members throwing their hats in the ring.

  Republicans will decide between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Because of Pearce’s more conservative profile, he would probably be the easier candidate for Democrat Tom Udall to beat in November. Still, the most recent polls show Udall crushing either Republican, so the outcome of the GOP primary may not matter a whole lot for Tom Udall’s chances this November.

• NM-01: With Heather Wilson out of the picture, Democrats are hopeful that they can finally put this D+2.4 district in the bag. The choices: Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. A a recent poll gave Heinrich a slight lead over Vigil-Giron, but Lujan Grisham has raised and spent a respectable amount.

  Republicans will choose between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joseph Carraro. White, a rare strong recruit by the mostly hapless NRCC, is the overwhelming favorite for his party’s nomination.

• NM-02: I’ll be relieved when the roster of players vying for Steve Pearce’s open seat is cut to two. On the Democratic side of the playing field, voters in this district will choose between Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. McCamley is an impressive orator and campaigner, but Teague, a wealthy oil man, has drawn on his personal wealth to give his campaign a big financial edge here. The buzz I’ve heard is that Teague is well-placed to win the nomination, a fact that seems to be confirmed by Bill Richardson’s recent endorsement of Teague.

  For what it’s worth, Roll Call quoted an anonymous New Mexico GOP strategist who believes that a Teague victory in this R+5.7 seat is “likely” in November — as long as he makes it out of the primary. I take such things with a heavy grain of salt, though.

  The Republicans have a football team-sized field here, including Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, restaurateur and ’02 candidate Ed Tinsley, retired banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (a former Democrat), local GOP Chairman C. Earl Greer, and businessman Greg Sowards. Tinsley was regarded as the early front-runner, but the National Association of Realtors PAC has dumped around $1 million in support of Newman, and Dunn has also spent over half a million of his own money on the race. With no public polling, the outcome of this one could be anyone’s guess.

• NM-03: The race to replace Tom Udall in the House is a two-way affair between Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Luján and wealthy home developer Don Wiviott. Wiviott (and other third-string candidates) have been going hard negative on Luján, who appears to have the edge here. Indeed, a recent poll showed Luján with a six-point lead over Wiviott, and Richardson gave him his stamp of approval earlier this week.

  I don’t know or care who the sacrificial GOP lamb is in this D+5.5 district.

June 10:

• ME-01: With Tom Allen hoping to graduate to the Senate, a posse of Dems are vying to replace him, including: Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, Iraq War vet Adam Cote, and state Sen. Ethan Strimling. Who is the strongest pick here? It beats me. Cote seems to be the most conservative choice, and could sneak in if progressive votes are divided.

  Republicans will pick between former state Sen. Charlie Summers and businessman Dean Scontras, but the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election in this D+6.2 district.

• SC-02: This is a bit of an oddball race. At a PVI of R+8.9, it’s certainly not on many prognosticators’ radar screens. However, Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq vet who entered this race in March, has raised $200K and loaned himself another $100K, according to the latest FEC filings. That’s an extremely respectable amount for a Democrat in a red district like this one.

  Miller will face off against retired Air Force officer Blaine Lotz.

• VA-11: A big one. With Tom Davis out of the picture, Democrats are finally making a play for this Dem-trending district. But first, the primary: Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly vs. ex-Rep./ex-state Sen./’05 Lt. Gov. candidate Leslie Byrne. Depending on who you talk to, this race is either neck-and-neck or will go decisively to Connolly.

  The winner will take on Republican Keith Fimian, a political neophyte, but an impressive fundraiser.

June 17:

• MD-04: Grab your popcorn, it’s time for another edge of your seat special election! Oh wait; Donna Edwards is going to win by 50 points.

June 24:

• UT-03: A recent poll shows GOP Rep. Chris Cannon leading former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by only two points. Cannon has had his share of close calls in the past, but it’s unclear whether we’ll actually get to do the wingnut shuffle in Utah this year.

With congressional primaries in Maine, South Carolina, and Virginia on June 10th, the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC for the period from 4/1 to 5/21 passed at midnight.  Let’s round-up the numbers from all the hot races (all figures are subject to rounding and listed in the thousands; loans not included):

“Under the radar” races are my favorite, so let’s take a look at SC-01 and SC-02, two deeply red seats with surprisingly strong Democratic challengers.

In SC-01, businesswoman/civic leader Linda Ketner has raised ($430K) and spent ($398K) quite a bit money so far. She’s also loaned her campaign $350,000 so far. This is some serious money for an R+9.6 district — and she needs to be posting these kinds of figures, when the incumbent is sitting on $1.3 million cash on hand.

Also impressive is SC-02’s Rob Miller. An Iraq vet, Miller entered the race in March and has raised nearly $200K and lent his campaign an additional $100K. Again, very respectable scrilla for an R+8.9 district.