Tag: WA-08

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):

Darcy Burner (D): 45

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±3.8%)

This race is shaping up to be another close one. Darcy Burner has one of the best Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness ratings in the country, at 132% and over $900K in the bank at the end of March.

Only 23% of voters say that they could change their mind between now and election day, but Reichert leads among these voters by 50-39. There’s a lot of campaign time still on the clock, but a strong Obama performance in this D+2.3 district might help dislodge a few of these soft Reichert voters in November.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

UPDATE (by Crisitunity): As a bonus, Survey USA also polled WA-02, where Rick Larsen is facing a bit stiffer challenge than his last few go-rounds. He’s up against Rick Bart, who until recently was Snohomish County Sheriff. Bart has high name rec and a Reichert-like profile, but he’ll need some money if he’s going to make a race of this (no FEC filing yet).

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 56

Rick Bart (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Cross posted from 21stCenturyDems.org.

As I reflect on the Take Back America 2008 conference, I’m thrilled 21st Century Democrats was a partner organization at the event.  We are proud to stand with other great groups like Campaign for America’s Future, Progressive Majority, ACORN, People for the American Way, the Center for Progressive Leadership, and many others who are working hard to change the direction of this country from the disastrous policies of George W. Bush.

For me, one of the highlights of the conference was the roll out of “A Responsible Plan To End The War In Iraq” by Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other Congressional candidates. Darcy explained how a the Bush Administration’s top down approach to ending the war in Iraq has failed to stem the violence and that’s why she drafted the plan and organized fellow Congressional candidates to take a bottom’s up approach by putting forward a plan to end the war.

One of the most important points made during the rollout was the need to change the frame of the conversation about the war from whether the surge is working to what we should be doing to make our country safer.   To shift the conversation we need to get more people involved in this debate. We must talk to our neighbors, friends, family – and most importantly to the candidates where we live – and ask them to sign on to the responsible plan to end the war in Iraq.

We in the progressive community have asked for leadership on ending the war, and now have Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other candidates who have put themselves on the line by not only standing up against the war, but by providing a detailed plan of how the United States can bring our military engagement in Iraq to a responsible end and take steps to restore the checks and balances in our government to make sure we do not make the same mistake again in the future.

You can endorse the plan here. You can also show your support the candidates leading this effort by donating to Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree or the slate of Congressional candidates who have signed onto the plan.

Today, the DCCC unveiled the second wave of participants in its Red to Blue program.  The 13 beneficiaries are:

Kay Barnes (MO-06)

Anne Barth (WV-02)

Darcy Burner (WA-08)

Robert Daskas (NV-03)

Steven Driehaus (OH-01)

Jim Himes (CT-04)

Christine Jennings (FL-13)

Larry Kissell (NC-08)

Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)

Eric Massa (NY-29)

Gary Peters (MI-09)

Mark Schauer (MI-07)

Dan Seals (IL-10)

There are few surprises here, but the committee’s stamp of approval given to replacement candidate Anne Barth, who is running against incumbent GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in WV-02 seems indicative of the DCCC’s desire to bust open the 2008 playing field in a big way.

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

So many stories, so little time.  Let’s do some quick hits.

• FL-24: Muck-encrusted Rep. Tom Feeney is going to face a major Democratic challenger next year: former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.  Kosmas was recruited by the DCCC to run after internal polling showed her in a competitive race against Abramoff associate Feeney.  Glad to have this race filled.  I’m looking forward to taking this crumb-bum on, who recently derided the proposed S-CHIP expansion as a “budget-busting, Cuban-style health care plan”.  Your modern Republican Party in action, folks!
  
• NM-Sen: Chuck Schumer and EMILY’s list are trying to recruit New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish to consider the Senate race.  Let’s hope Chuck can pull off another miracle here.
  
• IL-11: So get this: two of the Republicans running to succeed scandal-plagued Jerry Weller don’t exactly look formidable out of the starting gate.  New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman gets the kiss of death by being endorsed by Weller, while Marguerite Murer, a former Bush Administration staffer who ran the Correspondence office for the president, has fun inflating her bio:

  With the civilian rank equivalent to a two-star general, Marguerite charged forward leading Correspondence with solid business principles. From the war on terror and securing our homeland, to Medicare, Supreme Court nominations and the devastating Hurricane Katrina, Marguerite has communicated with millions of Americans. (Emphasis added)

  What a laugh.
  

• WA-08: Darcy Burner posts a big fundraising haul this quarter–$305K raised and $370K CoH, thanks in part to the netroots community during the Burn Bush effort this summer.
  
• NM-01: The Democratic primary is getting a lot more crowded in this open seat race, with state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham formally entering the race today.  The retirement of Wilson has been a blessing and a curse for Martin Heinrich, who was previously seen as the front runner for the nomination.

(From the diaries. Please welcome Darcy Burner to the Blue Majority page. – promoted by James L.)

As already seen on places like Atrios and Dailykos, there is a major blogosphere fundraiser taking place now for Darcy Burner. The Republican incumbent in Darcy Burner’s district, Dave Reichert, is hosting a fundraiser with George W. Bush. As such, the blogosphere is countering by raising funds for Darcy Burner, who epitomizes the phrase, “more and better Democrats.” Darcy Burner has also been added to the Blue Majority page.


Darcy Burner is the anti-Bush Dog. Here she is on FISA:

And here is her Bush indebted opponent, Dave Reichert:





So, chip in some cash to Darcy. Already, more than 450 people have done so, to the tune of more than $18,000. Let’s put more and better Democrats in Congress!

Twenty-First Century Democrats is proud to endorse Darcy Burner for Congress in Washington’s 8^th Congressional District.

“Leadership is seeing the big picture, knowing how to get there, and then painting that picture so vividly that the rest of the world eagerly comes along.” – Darcy Burner

Darcy Burner is a seasoned leader with bold ideas that capture the imagination of all Americans. Her work at Microsoft has given her the experience to create new paths to achieve goals worth fighting for such as health care for everyone and dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Darcy is intelligent, analytical, and has the energy, motivation and ambition to get the job done. Her commitment to the values of equality, liberty, opportunity and responsibility will make her a leader in the Democratic Party after she wins the 2008 Congressional election in Washington’s 8^th Congressional District.

Darcy is running for Congress to fulfill her commitment to human rights. First, human rights include the right to end an unjust war in Iraq, let the Iraqi people decide their own destiny, and restore faith in America as a leader who solves problems with a force of argument and not the force of weapons.

Human rights include the right to be taken care of with dignity and respect when a person is ill. She will fight to make sure everyone has access to universal healthcare.

Human rights include the right to a clean and sustainable environment. She has a commitment to dramatically reduce greenhouse gases to protect the planet’s environment and the health of Washingtonians and all people around the world.

Human rights also mean equality for all. Darcy has shown courage in her conviction to treating everyone equally no matter their race, gender, age or who they fall in love with.

Darcy Burner reflects the core Democratic value of hope. She won’t appeal to fear and bigotry to gain votes. She will inspire all Americans to come together and build a community where power and wealth is evenly distributed among all people.

We endorsed Darcy during her tough and very close race in 2006 against Dave Reichert. We, along with many Americans, were outraged when the Republican attack machine launched a negative campaign of fear against Darcy. But we will not give up on Darcy.

Like many real leaders, Darcy has the courage to set aside the sting of defeat and stand up for what she believes by getting back in the ring. She is in a stronger position to win in 2008. We feel that throwing our support behind her campaign early in the race will send a strong signal to the progressive Democratic community that Darcy Burner is a candidate that everyone should get behind by volunteering and supporting her campaign.

Join us as we help Darcy Burner become the next great Washington Democrat to bring bold, progressive ideas to the halls of Congress. With your generous financial support, we can send Darcy Burner to Congress and turn Washington’s 8^th Congressional district blue.

Says the AP:

Republican Rep. Dave Reichert survived a strong challenge from Democratic newcomer Darcy Burner, winning a second term in this historically slow-counting suburban Seattle district.

Reichert, best known as the sheriff who nabbed the Green River Killer, retained his seat after new returns were posted Monday night from King County. His lead stood at 4,727 votes, or 51.1 percent to Burner’s 48.9 percent. Overall, 208,225 votes had been counted in the race.

Washington’s 8th has yet to elect a Democrat since its creation in the early 80s.  We’ll get to this one yet, but regrettably not this year.