Tag: Senate

As you might remember reading last week “on some political gossip Web site,” it was reported that State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) was reconsidering a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC). Today, Hagan announced she's officialy in the race and came out of the gate swinging:

“To make a difference in North Carolina, we need change in Washington,” Hagan said. “We need a Senator to make our voice heard. We need a Senator who will stand up, lead and make a difference. That's what I've done, and it's what I'm going to keep doing in Washington.”

“We need accountability to end the war in Iraq so we can re-invest those resources here at home. How can Washington reject health care for 123,000 North Carolina children, while continuing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this mismanaged war?” Hagan said. “Making those kinds of decisions is hard, but I know it can be done – because those are the kinds of fights I've led in the State Senate.”

Hagan joins businessman Jim Neal in the Democratic primary.

Readers of Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races may notice in the upper left hand corner of the website that we have a new addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page: State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega. Representative/Lt. Col. Noriega has ignited the grassroots and netroots and achieved broad support among the establishment. Noriega is a terrific candidate and understands the meaning of words like “duty” and “service.” Further, incumbent Republican and Bush rubber stamp John Cornyn is extremely vulnerable. To recognize State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega’s addition to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, I would love to see readers of the Guru’s blog put up a half dozen contributions to Noriega today. Just six contributions – you can do it! Whether you can contribute $100 or $10, please contribute if you can! Many thanks!

Albuquerque Mayor and Senate candidate Martin Chavez (D) speaks out on the state of the campaign so far.  Saying that he thinks that he gets “a bad rap from progressives” for his pro-business proclivities, Chavez takes stock of the two potential opponents that local and national Democrats hope will also enter the primary, Rep. Tom Udall and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish:

Chávez said he isn’t worried. Denish has already raised more than $1 million for a 2010 gubernatorial run, and with Chávez abandoning his gubernatorial bid to instead run for Senate, he said it wouldn’t make sense for her to enter the race. He said he is “not concerned” even if she does enter the race.

He also said he is confident he would defeat Udall in a primary.

“Philosophically, he’s so far to the left,” Chávez said. “I’d rather not have him in the race, but that’s a challenge I’d not shy away from.”

Classy for Chavez to use baseless right-wing talking points in order to put down a respected party player who would likely whip Mayor Marty’s ass in a primary battle.  Chavez might want to take a look at the polls again and see who has more mainstream appeal in the state: him or Udall.  Big hint: Udall would put this race in the bag for Democrats, while a Chavez candidacy would be surrounded by question marks.

Let me be clear: if we’re saddled with Chavez, I’ll sigh heavily and deal with it.  But I think it’s extremely telling that Chavez is already speaking out of school and reading out of the Republican play book in order to prove his strength in a hypothetical primary.  Completely and utterly unnecessary.

Two well-placed sources, independent of each other, have contacted the Swing State Project to let us know that NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) has reconsidered her earlier decision and will challenge Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Blue NC had picked up earlier rumors that Hagan might be back in from a local Democratic strategist:

Even before Jim Neal outed himself, Kay Hagan was looking at getting back in the U.S. Senate race. Now she’s getting more encouragement – from home and from Washington. Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, had looked at running earlier. She pulled back because Senator Charles Schumer from New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was intent on recruiting Grier Martin. Martin eventually opted out.

Now Hagan is reconsidering. She’s being wooed by North Carolina Democrats – and by Schumer. The garrulous New Yorker’s first task was to eat crow with Hagan. 

Public Policy Polling recently pegged Dole's approval at 44% with 41% disapproval. If our sources are correct, these numbers certainly suggest Hagan would have something to work with.

The Omaha World-Herald takes stock of the potential Democratic candidates for the Nebraska Senate race — all two of them.  Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and ’06 3rd District nominee Scott Kleeb won’t shut the door on a run just yet:

The party has no candidates at this time and their best contender, Fahey, is less than enthusiastic about running a statewide race. The Omaha mayor said that he was not ruling it out but that he has lots of work to do in Omaha.

Fahey has taken an active and high-profile role in trying to keep the College World Series in Omaha. His work in that arena may make it easier for him to rebuff Democratic efforts to recruit him into the race. […]

Fahey said he will decide over the next 30 days whether to run.

“To call it an inconvenient time is an understatement,” he said.

Kleeb, who lost a congressional bid to U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith in western Nebraska last year, also may be a hard sell. […]

He said that he was disappointed in Kerrey’s decision and that he would wait to see what Fahey decided.

If Fahey stays out of the race, Kleeb said, he would consider running.

“It would have to be sooner than later. These campaigns these days take a long time,” said Kleeb, who has about $70,000 left in his congressional campaign committee.

It’s no doubt a daunting decision to go up against a formidable GOP foe in Mike Johanns.  Frankly, I’m surprised that Fahey is still thinking about it, even hesitantly.  However, if one of these two guys get in the ring, and if Bruning bloodies up Johanns, there’s still an outside chance that this race could become interesting.

(H/T: New Nebraska Network)

TIME Magazine dips its toes into the 2008 Senate race scene in its list of the “top ten Senate races to watch“. (H/T: S2G)  Here’s an excerpt from their Louisiana page, talking up the profile of state Treasurer and recently-converted Republican John N. Kennedy:

Kennedy very nearly beat Republican David Vitter for his Senate seat in 2004; in a year that favored Republicans (Bush won Louisiana with 57 % of the vote) Vitter just barely squeaked in with 51%.

Funny.  That’s not how I remember the 2004 Senate race in Louisiana going down:

David Vitter (R): 51%
Chris John (D): 29%
John Kennedy (D): 15%
MoE: 0.0%

Yeah, Kennedy was really breathing down Vitter’s neck there.

That’s not the only mistake in the piece, of course.  On the Colorado page, TIME calls Rep. Mark Udall (D) “the son of the legendary Colorado Congressman Mo Udall”.  Mo, of course, represented Arizona in the House.

I feel genuinely sorry for anyone still stuck relying on the dead tree media for their horse race coverage.

Surprise, surprise: Bob Kerrey, last seen burnishing his Cornhusker credentials by hobnobbing with NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer and writing op-eds in the Daily News, is taking a pass on the Senate race.

With popular former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) in the race, and Kerrey’s months of indecisiveness clearing the field of other potential challengers, it’s not hard to imagine Democrats putting up only token opposition in Nebraska next year.

Eric Kleefeld over at TPM writes that “an inability to win this seat would essentially end any hopes by Democrats of reaching 60 Senate seats this cycle”.  I’m not convinced that 60 seats was ever really in reach in the first place, even with a hypothetical Kerrey candidacy.  Too many variables would have to break in just the right way in order for Democrats to even come close to such a broad sweep.  Perhaps, with Kerrey’s decision, a sense of normalcy will return to prognosticators who are openly hyping the magical 60 mark as some kind of benchmark for DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer’s success next year.

(And yeah, count me down as another guy who’s more than happy not to have to deal with the Liebermanesque statements of the week that a Bob Kerrey campaign would produce.)

In another blow to Republican Senate hopes, Rep. Tom Davis, considered their party’s best shot at holding the seat of retiring Sen. John Warner in the red column, is set to abort his candidacy in a public announcement this week (possibly as early as Thursday).  Chris Cillizza adds that it is not yet clear whether Davis will retire from the House or not.

That leaves the field clear for GOP stalwart and former Gov. Jim Gilmore to proudly wave the conservative flag in the election against the formidable Democrat Mark Warner.

This could turn into the most boring Senate race of the cycle.  But hey, I won’t complain.

Pass the popcorn!  It’s time for another divisive Republican primary.  Mere days after jumping into the New Mexico Senate race, Rep. Steve Pearce is already being accused of breaking House ethics rules by his colleague and primary opponent, Heather Wilson:

  Pearce, as part of a campaign-funded “tele town hall,” autodialed an estimated 130,000 GOP members across New Mexico on Thursday evening to chat them up about a vetoed children’s health bill, which he and Wilson disagree on.

  ” …I voted to uphold the veto because this bill has major flaws that are bad for the country, and bad for New Mexico,” Pearce said in his recorded messages leading up to the live, two-hour telephone town hall from his Washington, D.C., home. About 13,000 agreed to stay on the line.

  The Wilson camp, meanwhile, accused Pearce of breaking House ethics rules by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site.

  Wilson deputy finance director Heather Wade in an e-mail to the Journal cited a portion of a House document advising members they cannot advertise their official House Web sites on “materials issued by the campaign.” And Wade maintains the calls were, in effect, campaign materials.

  “In making these phone calls, Mr. Pearce misused taxpayer dollars to run for the Senate…,” Wade said in a written statement.

Nice body blow by Wilson there, who is no paragon of ethics herself.  She certainly isn’t wasting any time getting out in front of the issue.  I look forward to Pearce’s counter-attack, and the ensuing bloodbath.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

In September, we asked you to rank the 2008 Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip party control.  Since that time, there have been a number of developments that might shake up your rankings, including:

1. NM-Sen: The retirement of Pete Domenici and the entries of Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, as well as Democrat Martin Chavez, in the race to replace him.
2. VA-Sen: The depression of Rep. Tom Davis, after his party gamed the nomination for unpopular ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore.
3. NH-Sen: The entry of ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
4. NE-Sen: More dithering from Bob Kerrey (who appears to be back in NYC), while ex-Gov. Mike Johanns quit his job in Bush’s cabinet to carry the GOP banner in the race.
5. LA-Sen: Analysts are already beginning to read the tea leaves of last night’s gubernatorial elections in the state.  While Jindal had a blowout victory, Mary Landrieu’s brother was re-elected to his Lt. Governor post with 57% of the vote.  The Hotline’s Quinn McCord reads the numbers and finds the results to be not so bad for Sen. Landrieu.

Not that I take much stock in his wisdom, but the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza released his rankings of the Senate scene on Friday (previous ranking in parens):

1. Virginia (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Colorado (3)
4. New Mexico (-)
5. Louisiana (4)
6. Oregon (5)
7. Maine (6)
8. Minnesota (8)
9. Alaska (10)
10. Nebraska (7)

What’s your take?