Tag: Senate

From the Associated Press:

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall has decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici, according to an aide.

“He’s definitely running,” Tom Nagle, Udall’s chief of staff told The Associated Press. […]

Udall initially had said he would stay in the House, where he is a member of the Appropriations Committee.

But he reconsidered after a “groundswell” of encouragement from New Mexicans, Nagle said.

“He thinks it’s too important not to run for the Senate,” Nagle said. “A lot of the good things we’ve been able to do (in the House) don’t go anywhere in the Senate.”

Nagle said there has been criticism that Udall is “too liberal” for the seat but he disputed that, saying “the rhetoric doesn’t match the reality of what the data show.”

He said internal campaign polling of likely voters conducted for Udall at the end of October showed the congressman with a considerable lead over either Wilson or Pearce, including among self-described moderates.

Sweet!

Update: Check out the details of an internal poll conducted for Udall by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (10/23-10/27, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 52%
Heather Wilson (R): 36%
Undecided: 12%

Tom Udall (D): 50%
Steve Pearce (R): 33%
Undecided: 17%

Martin Chávez (D): 47%
Heather Wilson (R): 43%
Undecided: 10%

Martin Chávez (D): 40%
Steve Pearce (R): 44%
Undecided: 16%
MoE: ±4.3%

The Chávez numbers seem to jive with the most recent polling from SUSA, and the 17 and 18 point leads that Udall enjoys over Pearce and Wilson match up well with the R2K polling for DailyKos.  In short: the poll is good.

Udall starts off in a position of strength in the primary, capturing a solid 50% of Democratic primary voters:

Tom Udall: 50%
Martin Chávez: 30%
Don Wiviott: 2%
Undecided: 17%
MoE: +/-4.6%

Mayor Marty’s ego is clearly stung, hence his unwarranted attacks on Udall’s voting record (the very same voting record that Chávez said he would emulate in a chat with local progressive bloggers).  This primary will be as ugly as he wants it to be, but his extremely high negatives — confirmed by both Udall’s and SUSA’s polling — indicate that this will be a likely loss for the Mayor.  A nickel’s worth of free advice to Martin: bow out gracefully.

Ladies and gentlemen, we now have a progressive candidate in the New Mexico Senate race that we can be proud of.  From Heath Haussamen:

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has decided that he will run for the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici next year.

Udall has called a number of Democratic Party insiders this week, including at least some county party chairs, to inform them of his decision, reliable sources confirmed. A Udall spokesperson could not be reached for comment.

The early polls show Udall dominating his potential GOP foes: fellow Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  It looks like we will not only have a solid progressive in the race, but we’ll have the most “electable” candidate of either party’s current field, as well.

This is a huge coup for the folks over at Draft Udall.  Give it up, folks!

Building upon retirement rumors, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) told a local paper he'll make up his mind about running for re-election within “a few weeks.” I generally believe that a sitting politician who delays announcing their re-election plans is leaning against another term. 

The article also notes that Cochran is enjoying less influence in the Senate under the Democratic majority, having lost his committee chairmanship and other perks. In addition, Cochran told the paper in an interview before last year's election that his plans would be impacted by which party took control of the Senate. And we all know how that turned out.

While Cochran could probably hold his seat as long as he wants it, an open seat would present an opportunity for popular Mississippi Democrats such as former AG Mike Moore or former Governor Ronnie Musgrove.

(h/t to S2G) 

[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Mitch McConnell’s first ads are up, and McConnell is so desperate, he’s running on Democrat Alben Barkley’s record! I’m not joking. As DMKY’s Sonka points out:

And I can’t wait for the Club for Growth to see this ad!!! This is a love letter to pork and federal government spending through earmarks. Calling Senator Forgy!!!

Speaking of Larry Forgy, The Hill has some interesting commentary on his likelihood of entering the 2008 Senate race:

But that could soon change for McConnell, with opponents lining up not only on the Democratic side but from an angry Republican-turned-Independent as well.

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgy has made no secret of his anger over what he sees as McConnell’s role in dividing the state party by throwing Fletcher under the bus at the onset of his administration’s scandals and backing former Rep. Anne Northup in the GOP primary last spring. He believes this led to Fletcher’s defeat this week. …

But Forgy is furious, and he told The Hill Thursday he is not ruling out an independent bid to unseat McConnell, though he insists he doesn’t want to be a spoiler.

Forgy, who was the party’s nominee for governor in 1995, said he is “pretty sore” at McConnell and the state party for what he sees as their betrayal of Fletcher.

“The only difference between that and cannibals is that cannibals normally don’t eat their friends,” Forgy said.

A Larry Forgy primary challenge would force McConnell to spend money and weaken him for the general election against the Democrat. A Larry Forgy independent bid in the general election could mean curtains for McConnell! Running as an independent would make the Club for Growth no less likely to financially back Forgy – in fact, it could make them more likely since the CfG would probably like to back non-Republican candidates who share their philosophies, to extend their cred. I wholeheartedly support Forgy’s decision to run as an independent, should it come to fruition.

Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell: 

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference “in the very, very near future” to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.  “I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District,” Boswell said yesterday. “I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard.”  Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win.  Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit.  We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him. 

Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.

A recent round of Survey USA polling commissioned by Roll Call predicts Democrats will do quite well in next year's high-profile US Senate races. From poll-to-poll, the MOE varies from 3.8-4.0% with an approximate sample size of 650 respondents.

Colorado:

Mark Udall (D): 48
Bob Schaeffer (R): 41
Undecided: 11

Maine:

Tom Allen (D): 38
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55
Undecided: 8

Minnesota (07/30 results in parens):

Mike Ciresi (D): 44 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (48)
Undecided: 12 (11)

Al Franken (D): 45 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)

New Hampshire:

Jay Buckey (D): 36
John Sununu (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 16

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 53
John Sununu (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 5

New Mexico:

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Diane Denish (D): 47
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 10

Bill Richardson (D): 58
Steve Pearce (R): 37
Undecided: 4

Don Wiviott (D): 32
Steve Pearce (R): 49
Undecided: 18

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Heather Wilson (R): 44
Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49
Heather Wilson (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Bill Richardson (D): 59
Heather Wilson (R): 37
Undecided: 5

Don Wiviott (D): 38
Heather Wilson (R): 47
Undecided: 15

Oregon:

Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 13

Steve Novick (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 16

Virginia (9/17 results in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 52 (56)
George Allen (R): 42 (37)
Undecided: 6 (7)

Mark Warner (D): 57 (60)
Jim Gilmore (R): 35 (32)
Undecided: 8 (8)

Thoughts? Surprises?

Democracy For New Mexico has the scoop:

Rep. Tom Udall (NM-03) spoke to New Mexico Democrats yesterday at the Party’s State Central Committee meeting at Smith-Brasher hall at CNM in Albuquerque. Bottom line: Udall will take another two weeks to listen to what the people and his family have to say, and weigh the pros and cons of giving up his secure U.S. House seat in Northern New Mexico before making a decision on entering the 2008 U.S. Senate in New Mexico. […]

Udall entered the hall to a standing ovation, loud chants of “Run, Tom, Run” and a multitude of waving signs urging the same. His speech touched on many of today’s hot button issues including Iraq, supporting our troops by getting them out of harm’s way, protecting civil liberties, holding the telecoms accountable for warrantless surveillance and providing expanded children’s health care. He emphasized that we need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a Bush veto of legislation that the U.S. House has been passing  on matters like ending the war and regaining and preserving our Constitutional rights. It certainly sounded to me like he was leaning towards running to take back the seat held for so long by Pete Domenici, and helping to make that 60 vote majority a reality in the Senate.

Check the full account, with pictures and video, here.  There certainly is a deep hunger for a Tom Udall candidacy at the grassroots level, as the groundswell of support at the Central Committee meeting indicates.  Run, Tom, Run!

New Mexico FBIHOP has more.

(H/T: S2G)

It looks like Rep. Tom Udall is well beyond merely “reconsidering” his decision not to run for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Pete Domenici next year — local sources say that he’s actively assembling campaign team, according to Heath Haussamen:

A number of sources are confirming that U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has moved beyond simply reconsidering whether he should run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. He’s now trying to put the pieces in place for a Senate run.

That’s sort of obvious, even without the confirmation from sources. Udall considered a Senate run once and decided against it. To reconsider now – and confirm it publicly – means he must be very serious.

With so many Democrats in New Mexico and Washington unsatisfied with the Democrats currently running for Senate, Udall will have no difficulty assembling the team and raising the money he needs for a run. That, coupled with his attempt to put a campaign together, means a Udall Senate run is likely.

Additionally, his press secretary is publicly acknowledging Udall’s decision to give the race another look:

Udall’s press secretary is now confirming that the congressman is reconsidering.

“New Mexicans have urged Tom Udall to reconsider running for the United States Senate, and he’s doing just that,” Marissa Padilla said.

Sounds like this is one “draft” movement that may yield results.  If Udall gets in, this race will be a great example of the type of “DSCC primary meddling” that we can all get behind.

UPDATE: Haussamen says that Lt. Gov. Denish has taken her name out of consideration:

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has decided to forgo a 2008 U.S. Senate run and instead run for governor in 2010 as she originally planned.

A knowledgeable source confirmed on Thursday that Denish had decided against running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

If so, I’d take that as a good sign that Udall is really giving the race a serious look.  It’s no secret that Denish would prefer to be Governor, and would have been glad to pass the race off to someone else who could win it.  Perhaps Udall tipped her off that she no longer had to consider a bid.

The Albuquerque Journal reports that Rep. Tom Udall is reconsidering his earlier decision not to run for New Mexico's open Senate seat: 

I just got a call from someone very knowledgable about N.M. Democratic politics who says Rep. Tom Udall's people are calling the party's heavy hitters in the state this morning to inform them he is reconsidering a run for the U.S. Senate.
…

A rapidly growing “Draft Udall” movement online, as well as major arm-twisting from the national Democratic elite (including Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer), has convinced the congressman to reconsider.
…

Udall, a former two-term New Mexico attorney general, has proven he can win statewide and his polling numbers are among the best of any New Mexico politician. Any ambitious politician would take a hard look at the more prestigious Senate senate seat.

Incidentally, I also heard yesterday from separate – but equally reliable sources – that Gov. Bill Richardson called Udall yesterday to tell him he DOES NOT plan to run for the Senate and would stay out of Udall’s way if the congressman decides to jump in.

Tom Udall's entry into the race would certainly shake things up, greatly increasing our chances of picking up the Senate seat while opening all three of the state's House seats. To keep the momentum going, visit DraftUdall.com.

Last week, New Mexico reporter/blogger Heath Haussamen had the inside word that allies of Richardson were discouraging potential donors from cutting checks for the Senate candidacy of Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez:

Some of Gov. Bill Richardson's closest supporters have quietly told a handful of his biggest financial backers considering who they should support in the U.S. Senate race to “keep your powder dry for awhile.” […]

Though no Democrat would speak for the record about the governor's words, sources are speculating on three scenarios:

Richardson, though he has repeatedly insisted publicly that he isn't going to run for Senate even if he loses the presidential race, may be quietly leaving the door open.

Richardson doesn't want his supporters giving their money or time to a Senate candidate at this crucial stage in the presidential election, when he needs their help.

Richardson doesn't want them backing Chávez, the only top-tier Democrat in the Senate race, at a time when Denish is considering the race and Washington insiders and grassroots supporters in New Mexico are trying to get U.S. Rep. Tom Udall to enter the race.

It's no secret that local and national Democrats would prefer an alternative to Chavez — and everything that I've been hearing indicates that strong alternatives are giving the race a hard look.  I had assumed that Richardson's advice that donors should “keep their powder dry” was meant to give Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and Rep. Tom Udall some more time to consider (and reconsider) the race.  But could Richardson actually be angling to get into the race himself?  Mark Murray over at First Read has the scoop:

By the way, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli — who's covering Richardson filing his paperwork today for the New Hampshire primary — reports that Richardson said he would not accept matching funds “because it's unilateral disarmament.” It's worth noting that not accepting matching funds makes it MUCH easier to transfer one's presidential money into a Senate account. Just some food for thought…

Richardson's presidential campaign coffers haven't exactly been on par with Hillary's or Obama's.  (He raised $7 million in the third quarter and had less than that on-hand at the start of the month.)  It seems that the extra boost provided by matching funds would be a pretty crucial component of a come-from-behind victory for Richardson's team.  And while the move not to accept funds makes perfectly good strategic sense for someone aiming to succeed in the general election, it must be noted that Richardson faces far longer odds of making it there than even John Edwards has today.  Could something else be at work here?

If Richardson were to run, the polls suggest it would be a slam dunk for Democrats.  Should we hold out hope that Richardson might decide to pursue a Senate bid after his Presidential campaign flames out?  Or are we going to end up looking like the poor souls who are still hoping for Al Gore to enter the Presidential race and save all of humanity?

Update (Trent, 10/31):

Chuck Todd, appearing on Tucker last night prior to the debate, offered some predictions about Bill Richardson:

Richardson, though, I think you're going to see Richardson really stop being an aggressive candidate.  I think he has got his one eye on that Senate race.  he probably at some point is going to end up running for the U.S. Senate, probably is going to want Bill Clinton raising money for him in New Mexico.  So Richardson is the guy I'm wondering, will he end up being a helpful surrogate on the stage for Clinton if people stop—start beating up on her too much, where you suddenly see Richardson saying, hey, hey, this isn't what this is all about, and he starts trying to be the nice guy and end up helping Clinton.

Todd sounds particularly prescient considering that many viewed Richardson's debate performance as being particularly protective of Clinton.