With Bud Cramer springing his retirement at the end of last week, there was bound to be a great deal of soul-searching and activity in AL-05 over the weekend. The best example is State Senator Tom Butler (D R – Madison) who, after talking it over with Republican Gov. Bob Riley, has apparently decided to discard the Democratic party label which got him elected to three terms in the State House and four terms in the State Senate as he's expected to switch parties and run for Cramer's seat as a Republican.
I'm sure Riley has promised Butler his full support (demonstrating the weakness of the Republican bench in North Alabama if they're scrambling for a party switcher), but Butler might want to be careful what he's asked for. Riley has never demonstrated particularly long coattails and they're bound to be even shorter in North Alabama. Republicans have lost four out of Alabama's last five special legislative elections; all of which were aggressively targeted by Riley and the Republican Party.
The most poignant of Riley's many defeats was at the hands of Democratic Butch Taylor in HD22, which lies within AL-05. For weeks after the seat opened up, all Republicans could talk about was how the district's demographics favored a conservative Republican and how "Democrats are scared to death." Sounds sorta familiar doesn't it? Riley made a few trips to the district and raised funds for the Republicans, only to see it all blow up in his face as Taylor walked away with a 16-point victory. It's the same story all over Alabama, from the election of James Fields in rural Cullman to primaries in safe-Republican seats:
Riley endorsed Randy McKinney. He was heavily favored but lost to Trip Pittman. This district is one of the most republican in the state. It is also one of Riley's top counties for popularity and job approval. McKinney led the field of four strong candidates in the first primary and had all the Montgomery money endorsements. However, Riley's endorsement created a backlash and elected Pittman.
The lesson learned by Riley is Alabamians resent a politician arrogantly trying to get involved in another race. All politics is local. These two maxims have withstood the test of time.
When thinking about the question a few months back, Doc's Political Parlor also had a hard time coming up with a successful Riley-backed candidate:
Can someone help me think of a candidate who was elected with Riley’s support that would have otherwise lost? Not Luther Strange, Drayton Nabers, Randy McKinney… SD 17 incumbent Jack Biddle was more of a Riley man than his opponent Scott Beason but lost.
While Butler’s party switch is mildly damaging to Democratic chances of holding this seat, it’s not nearly as bad as some Republicans will attempt to spin it as. Being viewed as Riley’s boy in this race seems like it’ll be bound to hurt Butler. And I’m not sure how fired up local Republicans will be about his candidacy considering Butler’s been working and running against them as a Democrat for decades; I imagine they’ll find it rather difficult to let bygones be bygones.