Tag: AL-05

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

Capital Survey Research Center (8/19-21, likely voters, 4/1 in parens):

Parker Griffith (D): 45 (48)

Wayne Parker (R): 40 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Republican Wayne Parker has closed the gap since April, but this is hardly surprising. Parker began his campaign as a largely unknown candidate, with memories of his two losses to Democrat Bud Cramer in 1994 and 1996 being extremely distant. However, after a contested primary, he’s boosted his name recognition and is now hitting the 40% mark.

Still, Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator from Huntsville, retains the edge based on his superior credentials, the district’s ancestral Democratic tendencies, and heavier war chest.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

A sampling of some of the latest campaign ads cluttering the airwaves:

Well, I knew that times were lean at the NRCC, but this is a whole ‘nother level of stinginess:

Visiting Huntsville and Montgomery on Monday, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla. gave a $5,000 check from the NRCC to each one: 5th District GOP hopeful Wayne Parker, a Huntsville insurance executive, and 2nd District candidate state Rep. Jay Love of Montgomery.

Cole said the NRCC expects to put about $80,000 into each of the races before the Nov. 4 general election. That’s as much as the committee plans to put into any campaign. He said the races are among the top 10 priorities for the NRCC, and he expects candidates will have to spend at least $1 million to win in each district.

It’s difficult to imagine the NRCC spending a mere $80K on any race among their “top 10 priorities”, especially in the 2nd District, where the DCCC has reserved nearly $600K worth of ads for the open seat race. Just take a look at the kind of money that Tom Reynolds threw around last time (see here, here, and here).

Now, I realize that the NRCC is cash-strapped, but they do have nearly $8.5M on-hand, and surely they’ll have much more than that in the bank to spend come fall. Cole’s statement is altogether baffling. Is he just trying to light a fire under local donors, or is he saving the bulk of the NRCC’s booty for their other eight “priorities”?

(Hat-tip: Left in Alabama)

Polls are now closed in the runoff elections for the GOP nominations in two open House seats in Alabama. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns as they come in.

Results: Associated Press | County-by-County (AP)

9:46PM: Well: that’s that. The AP has called this one for Jay Love (and Wayne Parker, for that matter). So does this mean that George Jones will now be voting for Bobby Bright?

9:24PM: With 67% reporting, Love has a 58-42 lead. I’m not sure if there are enough Wiregrass precincts left to make this one close.

8:57PM: With 18% reporting, Love has pulled to a 56-42 lead.

8:43PM ET: With 3% of precincts reporting, Jay Love is leading Harri Anne Smith by 54-46. I’m hoping that Smith can pull off a miracle here (due to the simple fact that Love is the NRCC’s choice), but either candidate will emerge battered. Over in AL-05, Wayne Parker is crushing.

Another month, another round of elections. Let’s check in with all the races worth watching.

July 15:

• AL-02: A runoff will be held here for the GOP nomination for the seat of retiring Rep. Terry Everett. Jay Love, a state representative from the Montgomery area, lead Dothan-based state Sen. Harri Anne Smith by a 35%-22% margin in the first round of voting. Republicans in DC have closed ranks around Love, but Smith is not going down without a fight, and has released a series of blistering attack ads against Love over tax hikes and — in a possible preview of Democratic attacks to come — using the words of Gov. Bob Riley to hit Love for being tied to “Big Oil”. GOP division? I’m loving it.

  A source close to the campaign of Democrat Bobby Bright says that some in the campaign believe that Smith would be the more formidable opponent, but I suspect that Love’s strength in suburban Montgomery might give him the extra edge he would need in a general election match-up. We’ll see.

• AL-05: The GOP fell just shy of avoiding a runoff for the nomination to contest the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer, with insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker scoring 49% to businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie’s 19%. Baswell Guthrie’s campaign has quite clearly run out of steam, and I don’t expect that Parker will have any difficulty dispatching her in the runoff.
• GA-Sen: The Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is a bit of a mess. To run down the cast of characters, you’ve got: DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, a controversial and self-proclaimed Bush Democrat with the worst kind of personal baggage; Dale Cardwell, a former Atlanta broadcast journalist, pole-sitter, and all-around weirdo; businessman and scientist Rand Knight, who has impressed some on the stump but has not raised any significant cash; Josh Lanier, a former senatorial aide and Vietnam vet who is taking a hard-line stance against campaign fundraising; and former state Rep. Jim Martin, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for Lt. Governor in 2006 but is the only candidate in the race who has raised any significant cash.

  Jones would clearly be a disastrous choice for Democrats, and I think he’d hurt Democratic candidates both up and down the ballot if he somehow wins the nomination. Indeed, the most recent poll of the race shows that Jones is in the worst position of all the candidates in a head-to-head match-up with Chambliss. However, his name recognition is high and he’s the only African-American candidate in the crowded field, so chances are that he’ll at least make the run-off, which will be held on August 5th.

• GA-10: Another nutty GOP primary. Many Republicans have not abandoned their distrust of Rep. Paul Broun, who was elected in a run-off last summer over the much better-known state Sen. Jim Whitehead with the help of crossover votes from Democrats. Unsurprisingly, Broun has picked up a challenge from state Rep. Barry Fleming. Crisitunity explains:
  

  The inference that Broun isn’t a ‘real’ Republican because Democrats helped him beat the establishment candidate is laughable, as Broun has one of the most conservative records of all House members. But Broun has established himself as more of a libertarian-leaning maverick, so the local GOP would probably prefer to see a more housebroken representative. Democrat and Iraq War vet Bobby Saxon awaits the victor, although this is an R+13 district where the GOP has to be favored.

  Much like the Cannon-Chaffetz race in Utah, this is one pits an ultra-conservative against another “almost as” ultra-conservative.

• GA-12: For many in the netroots, this is the big event. Crisitunity frames the race as follows:
  

  This is the primary that has garnered the most netroots attention (if a bit belatedly). While this race turns primarily on the demographics of GA-12, there’s also an ideological component, as John Barrow is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House… and unlike the other most conservative House Dems, he’s in a D+2 seat and doesn’t have the excuse of a deep red district.

  State Senator Regina Thomas from Savannah is challenging Barrow from the left. Thomas is African-American and Barrow is white; this is significant in a district that’s 45% African-American and where at least two-thirds of the Democratic electorate is African-American. While that might seem to give Thomas an inherent advantage, most of the local political figures (and some national figures, including Obama) have endorsed Barrow, and Thomas’s money situation is a mystery (we’re still awaiting her first FEC report). Her main impediment is simply low name recognition, especially in Augusta, the other city at the other end of the district. Her strategy seems to be to focus on word of mouth via black churches to get the word out, which will be interesting to see if it works in the face of Barrow’s big bank account.

  Regardless of who wins the primary, this should be a likely hold this cycle, as the Dems face third-tier Republican opposition (either former congressional aide John Stone or former radio talk show host Ben Crystal). This district has been very competitive at the general election level since its creation, though; Barrow won by only 864 votes in 2006, although that’s largely because he was facing Max Burns, the previous GOP representative that Barrow unseated in 2004.

  We should find out Thomas’ pre-primary fundraising soon. If it turns out that most of her money raised is from Democrats.com, then I’d be concerned about her viability.

Polls close in Alabama and New Jersey at 8pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in a number of hot congressional primaries.

Alabama: AL-02 (D & R), AL-05 (R)

Results: Associated Press | AL.com

New Jersey: NJ-Sen (D), NJ-03 (R), NJ-05 (D), NJ-07 (R)

83% of Precincts Reporting

Lautenberg	168,890	62%
Andrews	87,248	32%

Results: Associated Press | NJ.com

11:55PM (David): The AP says there will indeed be a run-off between Wayne Parker and Cheryl Guthrie. There must be plenty of teeth-gnashing at Parker headquarters – he took 49%, just a hair shy of avoiding the run-off outright. Guthrie, meawhile, is far back at 18%. But she’s been waging a very negative campaign lately, which hopefully will continue – and soften up the eventual winner even further for Dem Parker Griffith in the fall. The run-off is July 15th.

10:48PM (David): AL-02 will go to a run-off between Love and Smith. In AL-05, Parker is hovering at 48% with 93% of the votes counted. If he can’t clear 50%, he’ll face Guthrie in a run-off.

10:39PM: Chris Myers just won NJ-03 and Leonard Lance won NJ-07 according to the AP.

10:22PM: The AP is calling NJ-05 for Dennis Shulman!

10:11PM: The AP is calling NJ-Sen for Frank Lautenberg!

9:43PM: The AP is calling AL-02 for Bobby Bright.

9:33PM: Whoops — I can’t believe we forgot about NJ-05 (D). Rabbi Dennis Shulman is leading Camille Abate by 57-34 with 34% reporting.

9:19PM: Some tidbits from Alabama — Bobby Bright is crushing in AL-02 so far, while Jay Love is the early leader on the GOP side. However, Love’s base is in Montgomery, so we should see Smith surge when the Wiregrass region is counted.

9:10PM: Lautenberg is cruising so far. Jack Kelly, the weaker of the two NJ-03 GOP front runners, has a 45-30-25 lead over Justin Murphy and the stronger Chris Myers with 29% reporting. With 8% reporting in NJ-07, Leonard Lance has a 60-19 lead over Kate Whitman.  

Another month, another round of elections. Once again, the Swing State Project brings you the month in races worth watching:

June 3: This is going to be a big day.

• AL-02: With Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring at the end this term, the GOP field is large and noisy to replace him. The players include: State Rep. Jay Love, state Rep. David Grimes, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke, TV station executive David Woods, and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. With such a crowded and well-funded field, a 7/15 runoff is all but inevitable. Watch for Smith and one of Love or Woods to advance to the next round.

  I’m hoping that Smith is the GOP victor here, if for no other reason than the fact that she’s dumber than a sack of hammers.

  On the Democratic side, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright will face off with Alabama NOW President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley. Bright’s campaign has been slow to get started, whereas Sabel has won a number of endorsements. Still, Bright should probably be okay based on name recognition.

• AL-05: Another open seat here, this one left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. State Sen. Parker Griffith of Huntsville is the Democratic front-runner and won’t have any problems in his primary.

  Republicans will decide between insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker, businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie, former state Rep. Angelo Mancuso (a turncoat Democrat), ’06 candidate Ray McKee, and a number of also-rans. Parker is thought to be the favorite, but Guthrie has invested a significant amount of her own resources on the race.

• CA-04: This one should be interesting. With John Doolittle being put out to pasture, Republicans will choose between conservative icon Tom McClintock, a state Senator from southern California, and former Rep. Doug Ose. This has been a bloody and expensive primary, but the winner will still have a big advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in this R+10.9 district.
• IA-03: Democrats will go to the polls to decide the fate of longtime Rep. Leonard Boswell, who is receiving a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ed Fallon. In a low-turnout affair, anything could happen, but keep in mind that the lone public poll of this race — from Research 2000 in late April — showed Boswell ahead by a wide margin.
• NJ-Sen: A big event. Not content to “wait his turn”, Rep. Rob Andrews is waging a rough primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). A recent Rasmussen poll gave Lautenberg a 30-point lead here.

  Republicans will choose between ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer, crypto-fascist state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and college professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul acolyte.

• NJ-03: Republicans were initially very high on Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin VP, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton in this South Jersey distrct. However, Myers’ primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly has descended into a squabbling mess, and neither candidate has been able to match the fundraising juggernaut of the Democratic candidate, state Sen. John Adler. I’m rooting for Kelly to win here, but I like Adler’s chances against either Republican.
• NJ-07: The GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson appears to be up in the air between state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. It’s unclear to me which candidate would be stronger in the general election. Ex-Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield and Scotch Plains Mayor Marty Marks will also have their names on the ballot.

  State Assemblywoman Linda Stender will be carrying the Democratic banner once again in this tossup district.

• NM-Sen: This open seat race has caused a domino effect all over New Mexico politics, with all three of the state’s House members throwing their hats in the ring.

  Republicans will decide between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Because of Pearce’s more conservative profile, he would probably be the easier candidate for Democrat Tom Udall to beat in November. Still, the most recent polls show Udall crushing either Republican, so the outcome of the GOP primary may not matter a whole lot for Tom Udall’s chances this November.

• NM-01: With Heather Wilson out of the picture, Democrats are hopeful that they can finally put this D+2.4 district in the bag. The choices: Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. A a recent poll gave Heinrich a slight lead over Vigil-Giron, but Lujan Grisham has raised and spent a respectable amount.

  Republicans will choose between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joseph Carraro. White, a rare strong recruit by the mostly hapless NRCC, is the overwhelming favorite for his party’s nomination.

• NM-02: I’ll be relieved when the roster of players vying for Steve Pearce’s open seat is cut to two. On the Democratic side of the playing field, voters in this district will choose between Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. McCamley is an impressive orator and campaigner, but Teague, a wealthy oil man, has drawn on his personal wealth to give his campaign a big financial edge here. The buzz I’ve heard is that Teague is well-placed to win the nomination, a fact that seems to be confirmed by Bill Richardson’s recent endorsement of Teague.

  For what it’s worth, Roll Call quoted an anonymous New Mexico GOP strategist who believes that a Teague victory in this R+5.7 seat is “likely” in November — as long as he makes it out of the primary. I take such things with a heavy grain of salt, though.

  The Republicans have a football team-sized field here, including Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, restaurateur and ’02 candidate Ed Tinsley, retired banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (a former Democrat), local GOP Chairman C. Earl Greer, and businessman Greg Sowards. Tinsley was regarded as the early front-runner, but the National Association of Realtors PAC has dumped around $1 million in support of Newman, and Dunn has also spent over half a million of his own money on the race. With no public polling, the outcome of this one could be anyone’s guess.

• NM-03: The race to replace Tom Udall in the House is a two-way affair between Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Luján and wealthy home developer Don Wiviott. Wiviott (and other third-string candidates) have been going hard negative on Luján, who appears to have the edge here. Indeed, a recent poll showed Luján with a six-point lead over Wiviott, and Richardson gave him his stamp of approval earlier this week.

  I don’t know or care who the sacrificial GOP lamb is in this D+5.5 district.

June 10:

• ME-01: With Tom Allen hoping to graduate to the Senate, a posse of Dems are vying to replace him, including: Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, Iraq War vet Adam Cote, and state Sen. Ethan Strimling. Who is the strongest pick here? It beats me. Cote seems to be the most conservative choice, and could sneak in if progressive votes are divided.

  Republicans will pick between former state Sen. Charlie Summers and businessman Dean Scontras, but the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election in this D+6.2 district.

• SC-02: This is a bit of an oddball race. At a PVI of R+8.9, it’s certainly not on many prognosticators’ radar screens. However, Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq vet who entered this race in March, has raised $200K and loaned himself another $100K, according to the latest FEC filings. That’s an extremely respectable amount for a Democrat in a red district like this one.

  Miller will face off against retired Air Force officer Blaine Lotz.

• VA-11: A big one. With Tom Davis out of the picture, Democrats are finally making a play for this Dem-trending district. But first, the primary: Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly vs. ex-Rep./ex-state Sen./’05 Lt. Gov. candidate Leslie Byrne. Depending on who you talk to, this race is either neck-and-neck or will go decisively to Connolly.

  The winner will take on Republican Keith Fimian, a political neophyte, but an impressive fundraiser.

June 17:

• MD-04: Grab your popcorn, it’s time for another edge of your seat special election! Oh wait; Donna Edwards is going to win by 50 points.

June 24:

• UT-03: A recent poll shows GOP Rep. Chris Cannon leading former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by only two points. Cannon has had his share of close calls in the past, but it’s unclear whether we’ll actually get to do the wingnut shuffle in Utah this year.

A new poll conducted by the Capital Survey Research Center shows state Sen. Parker Griffith, an oncologist from Huntsville, with an early lead over the presumptive GOP nominee, advertising executive Wayner Parker (4/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Parker Griffith (D): 48%

Wayne Parker (R): 32%

Undecided: 21%

(MoE: ±4%)

(Source: House Race Hotline)

On top of Griffith’s $115,000 fundraising haul in his first week of the race, this is encouraging news for Democrats as they seek to hold this open seat that Bush carried by 54-44 and 60-40 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  

Wayne Parker twice tried to win this seat against incumbent Democrat Bud Cramer; he nearly won in 1994, but lost decisively in ’96.  With the GOP failing to attract a stronger challenger (such as potential turncoat Democratic state Sen. Tom Butler), it appears that Griffith is starting with a clear edge here.

SSP will try to obtain a copy of the polling memo and post it when we can.

The GOP had hoped to convince State Senator Tom Butler (D-Madison) to switch parties and run for Congress as a Republican, but sources now say he'll sit out the race. With the filing deadline falling this Friday, Republicans are left with businessman Wayne Parker, who was defeated by incumbent Bud Cramer in 1994 and 1996. Democrats are in a strong position to hold onto this open seat with State Senator Parker Griffith (D-Huntsville).