Although Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) is waflling on whether or not he actually plans to resign, there's already been plenty of speculation about who would take his place. Now we learn from The Hill that one possible contender, disgusted with the GOP's handling of the scandal, is taking his name out of consideration:
Rep. Mike Simpson (R) condemned Senate GOP leaders on Thursday for their treatment of fellow Idahoan Sen. Larry Craig (R), accusing them of hypocrisy.
“I hope I never stub my toe and they throw me under the bus,” Simpson said of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and other Republican leaders. “It kind of makes you wonder what party you want to be a member of.”
Simpson underscored that he is not considering switching parties. But he also emphasized that he would not want to serve in the Senate, even if chosen by Idaho Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter (R) to replace Craig.
As there isn’t a U.S. Senate race in Nevada this cycle, about which we could write at My Silver State – Nevada’s progressive community blog, and there are no major candidates yet to challenge Republican Congressmen Dean Heller (NV-02) and Jon Porter (NV-02), I’d like to take a look north across the Nevada stateline to Larry LaRocco‘s run for the U.S. Senate in Idaho.
By looking beyond Larry Craig’s resignation announcement, I’d like to make an argument why Larry LaRocco is an ideal candidate to be featured on the Blue Majority fundraising page run by Daily Kos, Open Left, MyDD and the Swing State Project.
Just in case you don’t know Larry LaRocco yet, watch this video about a true “working” candidate:
So, with all the Senate candidates out there, why would Larry LaRocco be an ideal Blue Majority candidate, one the national netroots should be supporting?
The Craig scandal is only the latest issue to demoralize the Republican Party, and new wild cards keep springing up, such as an FBI raid on a home of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) and questions about the role that Sen. Pete V. Domenici (R-N.M.) may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C. Iglesias in Albuquerque. Democratic surrogates in labor-backed groups such as Americans United for Change have even been attacking Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in Kentucky.
The Cook Report considers those three seats and the Idaho seat “likely Republican,” but if the GOP is forced to spend any money defending them, it would be siphoning funds from races where the money would be badly needed. As of June 30, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $20.4 million on hand, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee had $5.8 million in its bank account.
“If Republicans are investing significant money in Idaho, that means they are losing at least five seats in 2008,” said Nathan L. Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “If Idaho ends up the fire wall, they are in deep trouble.”emphasis added
Now, the conventional wisdom, including in this Washington Post piece, is that Idaho is likely to stay Republican, that Larry LaRocco is unlikely to win. We all know conventional wisdom can be challenged as has been proven in the Senate races in Virginia and Montana last year. Watch out for an additional conventional wisdom this cycle, especially if Lt. Gov. Jim Risch will replace Craig, that Larry LaRocco can’t win as he has already lost twice against Risch (1986, State Senate; 2006 Lt. Gov, with Risch being the incumbent in both elections). We ought to challenge these conventional wisdoms because wise they’re not.
First of all, this is a federal election. Very different dynamics come into play when people vote for a U.S. Senator opposed to a rather powerless Lt. Governor.
Also, Larry LaRocco has represented Idaho in Congress before (1991-1995). He’s got the experience, he knows what he’s talking about.
Most importantly, though, we’re currently witnessing the implosion of the Republican party as we know it. Corruption, moralistic hypocracy, and, first and foremost, the Iraq occupation have not only led to the Democrats recapturing the majority in the House and in the Senate. It may also lead to the election of a Democratic President and an increased majority in Congress next year.
We all know how it’s gonna work. The establishment support and money will mostly go along the conventional wisdom. It is most likely to go to New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, Colorado, and also Virginia now. That’s good and hopefully we will win all of these seats.
That said, last year has proven that the netroots can have an impact in unlikely races with small media markets. Idaho and Larry LaRocco fit this mold perfectly, as do Andrew Rice in Oklahoma and a possible Mark Begich candidacy in Alaska, by the way.
What could be more wonderful than having Idaho as the Republican firewall? It’s not unlikely as the Club for Growth may force a primary on whoever will be appointed to Craig’s seat. This can only strengthen Larry.
In 1982, Larry LaRocco had zero support from the DCCC and yet got 46.5% of the vote. Back then there was no internet, blogs didn’t exist. This time we can help him out and help him win.
While rumors have been around for awhile, it looks like Sen. Larry Craig has been busted:
Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) was arrested in June at a Minnesota airport by a plainclothes police officer investigating lewd conduct complaints in a men’s public restroom, according to an arrest report obtained by Roll Call Monday afternoon.
Craig’s arrest occurred just after noon on June 11 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. On Aug. 8, he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct in the Hennepin County District Court. He paid more than $500 in fines and fees, and a 10-day jail sentence was stayed. He also was given one year of probation with the court that began on Aug. 8.
A spokesman for Craig described the incident as a “he said/he said misunderstanding,” and said the office would release a fuller statement later Monday afternoon.
After he was arrested, Craig, who is married, was taken to the Airport Police Operations Center to be interviewed about the lewd conduct incident, according to the police report. At one point during the interview, Craig handed the plainclothes sergeant who arrested him a business card that identified him as a U.S. Senator and said, “What do you think about that?” the report states.
Craig is up for re-election in 2008 and something tells me this isn't gonna play well back home in Idaho. Whether Craig chooses to resign or stick it out, Democrat Larry LaRocco should be able to make a race of it.
Update: In the event that Craig retires early, a quick check of Idaho statutes shows that the replacement process is fairly standard. Republican governor “Butch” Otter has the full authority to appoint someone who would serve through November 2008.
The race to fill Republican Butch Otter’s open seat in Idaho’s first district was one of my favorite stories to write about last year. In what is now a campfire legend, Bill “Brain Fade” Sali rode a wave of bad press for his asinine antics and bad reputation in the Idaho state legislature to a spectacularly dismal 49-46 victory over Democrat Larry Grant last November. (And when Bush carries your district with 68% of the vote, no self-respecting Republican candidate has any business performing that badly.)
However, aside from being the handmaiden of his campaign benefactors, the economic regressives at the Club For Growth, Sali has kept a mostly low profile in the House this year. So one might expect that Sali’s high negatives have softened over the past eight months, right? Well, maybe not, if you believe the latest polling.
Via The Hill and New West comes news of a new poll conducted by Greg Smith and Associates showing Sali with some serious baggage (“voters”, July 11-13):
Bill Sali (R-inc.)
Favorable: 29
Unfavorable: 46
No Opinion: 13
Unaware: 12
MoE: ±5.3%
Just dismal. And how does Larry Grant fare, the rematch candidate who commissioned the poll?
Larry Grant (D)
Favorable: 28
Unfavorable: 13
No Opinion: 29
Unaware: 30
MoE: ±5.3%
So, despite losing a close race and feeling the full fury of the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Club For Growth (who spent $483,000 and $441,000 smearing Grant’s name, respectively, in the closing weeks of the campaign), Grant walks away with only a 13% disapproval rating, while 59% of the district’s voters either do not recognize his name or have no opinion of him either way. Losing a House race, it would seem, does not earn one a great deal of meaningful name recognition.
While Sali has not shaken off his negatives, it is difficult not to mention that this district had little problem re-electing the late Congresswoman Helen Chenoweth despite her own psychedelically nutty reputation. It seems that Sali still has yet to endear himself in the same way, though.
PS: You might remember the Boise-based Smith & Associates firm as the curators of a startling poll last fall showing Sali’s support evaporating while the rest of his Republican colleagues were in solid shape.
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