Tag: GA-Gov

• NY-20 (pdf): There’s light at the end of the tunnel in the NY-20 count, and as we get closer, Scott Murphy’s numbers keep going up. This morning’s BoE tally gives him a lead of 167, following the addition of more votes from Columbia, Dutchess, and Warren Counties (all of which Murphy won on Election Day).

Apparently all Saratoga County votes are accounted for, except for 700 challenged ballots, which, thanks to yesterday’s court ruling, will be counted. (While Saratoga County in general is Jim Tedisco’s turf, the Tedisco camp’s heavy use of challenges of student votes suggests that these votes may include a lot of votes from artsy Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, which one would expect to lean Democratic.)

• CO-Sen: Finally, a GOPer commits to the Colorado senate race against appointee Michael Bennet. It’s Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, who made his announcement while teabagging in Grand Junction. Frazier is 31 and African-American, so he brings an interesting backstory to the race, but it’s unclear whether his strength among conservative activists can overcome his otherwise low profile in the GOP primary (assuming anyone else bothers to show up).

• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac takes another look at the Florida senate race; not much has changed since last time, although one noteworthy finding is that Floridians would prefer to see Charlie Crist remain as governor rather than jump to senate, by a 42-26 margin. That doesn’t stop him from crushing in the senate primary (Crist beats Marco Rubio and Vern Buchanan 54-8-8). Buchanan leads a Crist-free primary, while on the Dem side, Kendrick Meek narrowly leads Pam Iorio (16-15, with 8 for Ron Klein, 5 from Dan Gelber, and a whole lotta undecideds).

• PA-Sen: John Peterson isn’t a make-or-break endorsement, but the former GOP representative from rural PA-05 said that he won’t support Arlen Specter’s re-election bid in 2010. He stopped short of endorsing Pat Toomey (Peterson supported Specter in the 2004 primary), but said it was time for Specter to retire. In other completely unsurprising endorsement news, the Club for Growth (of which Pat Toomey was president until several days ago) today endorsed Toomey’s bid. Laugh all you want, but Toomey will need all the financial help he can get; Specter hauled in $1.3 million in Q1 and is sitting on $6.7 million CoH.

• TX-Sen: Our friends at Burnt Orange Report have a nice graph showing Bill White and John Sharp dominating the fundraising chase so far in the hypothetical Texas senate race. (The chart doesn’t include GOP heavyweights Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and AG Greg Abbott, who haven’t taken formal steps for the race, but whose cash stashes are state-specific, putting them back to fundraising square one if they ran for senate.)

• CT-Sen: If Chris Dodd is going to win again in 2010, it’s going to be on the back of money, not popularity. Luckily, he still has lots of the former, as big-money donors aren’t being scared off by his poll numbers: he raised $1 million in the first quarter, with $1.4 million CoH.

• MN-Sen (pdf): Minnesotans would like the madness to stop, and would like to have a 2nd senator. PPP finds that 63% think that Norm Coleman should concede right now, and 59% (including 54% of independents) think Tim Pawlenty should sign Al Franken’s certificate of election right now. (This should give Pawlenty some pause as to whether or not to create further delay in the name of partisan politics, as he’s about the only person left who can drag this out.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $542K in the first quarter, only about half of what Robin Carnahan raised. Our JeremiahTheMessiah came up with the best possible headline for this story:

Carnahan Smokes Blunt… In Fundraising

• GA-Gov: As reported in the diaries yesterday by fitchfan28, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropped out of the gubernatorial race, citing health concerns. Cagle was more-or-less front-runner, and his departure leaves SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to slug it out for the GOP.

• IL-10, PA-07: Two huge fundraising hauls (by House standards) from two candidates who may be looking to move up. Mark Kirk, who pulled in $696K in the first quarter, is supposed to decide soon whether or not to try for IL-Sen. (He has only $597K CoH, though, after burning through all his cash defending his seat in 2008. So he may just be raising hard in expectation of another top-tier challenge in 2010 in this blue district.)

Joe Sestak raised $550K in the first quarter, leaving him sitting on a mongo $3.3 million. Could this… plus his suddenly increased media presence, as he talks the defense budget and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell… be tea leaves that he may be the Dem who jumps into PA-Sen after all? (Sestak has previously declined, and he’s always been mentioned as an afterthought in this race after Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy. But neither of them have made any moves, leaving Joe Torsella the only Dem challenger so far.)

• Numbers: California’s Secretary of State office finally released its Supplement to the Statement of Vote, heaven for nerds. Now you can look up Presidential and Prop 8 votes not just by congressional district, but by state senate or assembly district or even Board of Equalization district.

Unbelievable news today in the Georgia governor’s race as Republican front runner and current Lt. Governor Casey Cagle drops out of the race.

http://blogs.ajc.com/gold-dome…

Cagle told reporters he has had back and neck pain for several years, but it progressed during the 2009 session to the point where he had some paralysis. He tried therapy, but was advised that he needed surgery.

“I’ve been diagnosed with some serious nerve and bone problems and a degenerative spinal condition,” he told reporters at a Capitol news conference.  ” The issue could be hereditary or it could be the result of an old injury, but the unfortunate reality is that it requires immediate surgical treatment.”

 

While the “back problems” may have sealed the deal for Cagle there are also rumors circulating that he may have had an alleged affair with a female staffer in his office. This announcement however makes any investigation into that largely irrelevant.

This is great news for Georgia Democrats as this moves the race from what I would call a Lean GOP to a true tossup as no other GOP contenders really stand out at the top of their field of 3 (Insurance Commissioner Oxendine has many ethical questions surrounding him and SOS Karen Handel is hated for the partisan hackery she displayed in the 2008 elections and viewed as pretty inept the other candidate is a non name state representative from rural south GA).

Democrats also have a contested primary with former Adj. General David Poythress, State Minority leader Dubose Porter and Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the mix.

• IL-05: Congratulations to our newest House member, Mike Quigley. The Cook County Commissioner won the special election in this safe Dem seat last night, defeating GOPer Rosanna Pulido 70-24 (with the balance going to Green Party candidate Matt Reichel). (There were only about 34,000 votes cast in this election, compared with about 58,000 in the primary, since that’s where all the action was.)

• AK-Sen: Gov. Sarah Palin will not be challenging Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 senate primary; in fact, she’ll be assisting Murkowski with raising money (despite simmering tensions between the two factions). It remains to be seen whether she’ll be running for re-election as governor in 2010, or bailing out after one term to focus on the 2012 presidential race (which, geographically speaking, is hard to do from Alaska).

• VA-Gov: If there’s one thing Terry McAuliffe is good at, it’s raising money. He raked in $4.2 million in the first quarter for his gubernatorial campaign. He started April with $2.5 million CoH as the race heads toward the June 9 primary.

• IA-Gov: With Iowa’s Supreme Court having effectively made same-sex marriages legal, the 2010 governor’s race could turn into a proxy referendum on the issue (with Gov. Chet Culver unwilling to amend the state constitution to block the courts). And this may draw a higher-profile challenger to the race: nutty GOP Rep. Steve King, whose name has been occasionally associated with this race, says the sudden rise of this issue makes him “more likely” to enter the race.

• GA-Gov: As noted by fitchfan28 in diaries, state House minority leader Dubose Porter has thrown his hat into the ring for the Democratic nomination for Georgia governor. He joins AG Thurbert Baker and former SoS David Poythress as announced candidates, with former governor Roy Barnes scoping out the race as well.

• NJ-12: Rush Holt may receive a credible challenge in 2010, from Fair Haven mayor Mike Halfacre, who just filed exploratory paperwork. Fair Haven is in Republican-leaning Monmouth County; the district as a whole, though, is blue, if not overwhelming so (Obama won 58-41).

• EFCA: In the wake of yesterday’s announcement that Blanche Lincoln would oppose EFCA’s current form, two more moderate Dem wafflers got off the fence in favor of EFCA (or, more technically, in favor of cloture): Mark Udall and Mark Warner. Campaign Diaries has a very handy head count, indicating that possible passage is still very close, and an unpacked version of the bill (for instance, containing the binding arbitration portion, leaving ‘card check’ for another year) may still be passed.

• CfG: With Pat Toomey about to leave the helm of the Club for Growth to pursue his senate bid against Arlen Specter, they need someone new to wave the sword for the circular firing squad. Looks like the job may fall to yet another ex-Rep who brought the crazy to a swing district, Chris Chocola. (Chocola got bounced from IN-02 in 2006 by Joe Donnelly.)

• Omaha-Mayor: In last night’s Omaha mayoral all-party primary election, former GOP Rep. Hal Daub (himself a former Omaha mayor) squeaked into first place with 35.6% of the vote to Democratic concilman Jim Suttle’s 34.3%. Republican Councilman Jim Vokal came in third, picking up 28.2% of the vote. New Nebraska Network’s Kyle Michaelis argues that despite the Republican candidates picking up more votes overall, Daub’s weak finish is not a good sign for his chances in the general election. (J)

State Minority Leader and longtime state representative Dubose Porter (D-Dublin) is throwing his hat in the ring for the Democratic nomination for Governor of Georgia.

From the Dublin Courier Herald :

I have wanted to run before but felt it was best to wait until all of my children were out of high school. My youngest, the twins, are now freshmen at UGA and it seems as if this session’s lack of leadership has coincided correctly with that goal. It is a huge responsibility, but we can’t continue on this path and emerge productively in this economic downturn without new leadership.

   I realize a Democrat will have a hard time in what is seen as a red state. For one to win, we must look past the primary and honestly ask who can win a general election. My work on the issues will carry me in Atlanta, but according to the pundits from far right to far left it will take a candidate with my core values to connect with those outside of Atlanta.

I have met to Dubose before and heard him speak in front of a group of fellow college students and I must say he is a compelling candidate with ties across the state through his leadership in the General Assembly however with Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the race it looks like this could be a tough primary. I trust Dubose, Thurbert Baker and also already announced candidate General David Poythress will try to keep the primary fight clean and hopefully whoever the GA Democrats nominate will be able to bring together a winning coalition for the November election.  

http://news.mywebpal.com/news_…

Well, this is something of a surprise:

Twelve-year Attorney General Thurbert Baker will enter the 2010 race for governor, a move that could make the Democratic side of the contest every bit as complicated as the Republican one.

Jeff DiSantis, acting as a spokesman for Baker, said the attorney general has prepared the paperwork necessary to start raising money, and will file official notice shortly after the Legislature adjourns.

“This is not a contingent discussion. This is not based on whoever else is running,” DiSantis said. “It doesn’t need to be couched.”

Baker, an African-American, won more votes than anyone else on the Democratic ticket in 2006, his last statewide election.

His intention is to run a tough-on-crime campaign. More details to come.

Baker has won re-election by impressive margins in the past, and his candidacy would immediately be taken seriously on both sides of the fence. For the Democrats, former Gov. Roy Barnes has been sounding frisky lately, and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter has expressed interest, as well.

(Hat-tip: TheUnknown285)

• NH-Sen: The scurvy dogs at ARG! take their first reading of the 2010 New Hampshire senate race since Judd Gregg announced his retirement, finding that Rep. Paul Hodes beats ex-Sen. John Sununu 42-36. Hodes leads Sununu 38-31 among independents. (MoE ±4.2%)

• KY-Sen: In the days leading up to 1Q fundraising reports, Jim Bunning has publicly admitted that his fundraising has been “lousy,” although he says “Surprisingly, we’ve had pretty good success the last month.” He’s looking forward to some April fundraisers starring such luminaries as Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, and fellow baseball celeb Tommy Lasorda.

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes is sounding very interested in another try at the governor’s race. Barnes got bounced by Sonny Perdue after one term in 2002, but populist anger plus demographic changes in Georgia may make a Barnes comeback feasible. (Insider Advantage found earlier this month that Barnes would defeat several of the likely GOP candidates.)

• LA-02: Joseph Cao is signaling he may actually break ranks and vote for the Obama budget this week, telling The Hill that his constituents are “split.” (In the sense that they are likely to “split” his head open if he keeps voting the party line.)

• History: Roll Call takes an interesting look back at the spate of special elections during the 1993-1994 session of Congress, and the structural reasons we aren’t likely to see a repeat of the disastrous 1994 election again.

Insider Advantage (3/17, registered voters, no trendlines):

Roy Barnes (D): 35

Casey Cagle (R): 39

Undecided: 26

Roy Barnes (D): 38

John Oxendine (R): 33

Undecided: 29

Roy Barnes (D): 34

Karen Handel (R): 29

Undecided: 37

(MoE: 4%)

Barnes, 61, served as Georgia’s governor for one term (1999-2003), until he was unexpectedly booted out by Sonny Perdue – who is himself term-limited, making this an open seat. Cagle is the current Lt. Gov., Oxendine is the state Insurance Commissioner, and Handel is the Secretary of State.

The original poll results are unfortunately behind a paywall now, so I don’t know what Barnes’s name rec looks like, over six years after he left office. I’d suspect it’s still fairly high, but his favorables are a separate question. Meanwhile, IA does say that all three GOP contenders are fairly unknown, so we might be comparing Generic R to Well-Known D.

These uncertainties, plus the high undecideds, might mean that Barnes isn’t actually as competitive as these early numbers show. I recall one poll just over four years ago which showed Lucy Baxley leading AL Gov. Bob Riley 39-35 with 26% undecided. Twenty months later, those numbers were the dimmest of memories.

The state of the day is Georgia, where we’ll see Senate and Governor’s races in 2010. Sonny Perdue is term-limited out of the Governor’s mansion, so there will be a lot of candidates — both Democratic and Republican — scrambling for this seat. For a time, it seemed like GOP Senator Johnny Isakson was angling to run for the open office, but he announced earlier this year that he’ll seek a second term in 2010 instead.

While Isakson will be tough to beat, someone’s gotta run against him. Who would you like to see step up to the plate? And who should the Democrats field for the gubernatorial race?

From Roll Call:

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), who had been widely rumored to be interested in running for governor in 2010, said at a staff meeting this morning that he plans to seek re-election when his term is up in two years.

Isakson’s spokeswoman Sheridan Watson confirmed this afternoon that the first-term Senator told his staff that he wants to remain in the Senate rather than make his second run at the governor’s mansion.

Somewhat surprising, but I’m not sure that this shakes up the 2010 map much at all — Georgia is becoming an increasingly perilous place for statewide Democratic hopefuls, and there is no obvious frontrunner waiting in the wings to take this race on for Team Blue next cycle.