Tag: GA

Earlier this week fundraising data for the first half of the year was released (in off-years fundraising numbers are realesed biannually in GA state races like GOV, LT GOV, SOS, etc.) and there were some definite surprises on both the Democratic and Republican side with expectations exceeded by some (those who I consider winners) and underacheived by others (the losers) with one notable exception who has not formally declared his candidacy yet, Fmr. Governor Roy Barnes. I have to give credit to TheUnknown285 who has already provided data on this matter.

Winners

Democratic side:

Thurbert Baker raised close to $700,000 for a candidate who only started raising money in April this is pretty damn impressive and higher than many expected.

GOP side:

Nathan Deal raised over $1.2 million, really incredible given his detachment from statewide politics. Deal concerns me as a really difficult general election candidate because he is rather unknown outside of his district unlike other foot-in-mouth Republcan Congressmen in GA and he can raise a ton of $$$.

Eric Johnson raised close to $1 million, somewhat like Deal in this number came out of nowhere but given his leadership role in the State Senate and his unique geographical location like Deal he was able to rake in the big bucks.

Losers

Democratic side:

Dubose Porter  only raised $231,250 slightly more than Democratic Attorney General candidate Rob Teilhet which says a lot for Teilhet but is a rather discouraging statement about Porter's viability in the primary. I really like Porter's populist style but he'll need to ramp up the fundraising if he's serious about this gubernatorial race otherwise I think it'd be wise for him to look elsewhere to run for something. 

David Poythress  while sitting on a nice amount ($304,045.00) already Poythress lacked in the first half of 2008 raising a paltry $156,462.20 especially considering he spent $196,407.42 over the same amount of time. I know he's in it for the long haul but to be taken seriously he'll need to turn the fundraising around asap. 

GOP side:

Karen Handel while raising significantly more than Porter or Poythress, will need to do better than $431,178.57 in December to make it through a bruising GOP primary. I think she's in substantial risk of being passed over by the Deal and Johnson if the fundraising disparity continues.

Austin Scott $180,620.00 is not going to cut it. His “walking” tour would be interesting in different circumstances but in an open race with a ton of different options on the GOP and Democratic side I don't see him really catching on.

Neutral/ unknown

Democratic side:

Roy Barnes as stated above, Barnes has just launched his website and has not started fundraising in earnest reporting $0 raised so far. But given his penchant for fundraising in the past ($22 million in 2002!) I think Barnes will be bringing in a solid amount come December but with his frontrunner status come expectations that have to be met to secure the Democratic nomination without a fratricidal primary.

GOP side:

John Oxendine coming in with over $1 million so far makes this fundraising period not as critical for Oxendine as other candidates yet $416,580.35 this year so far is lagging in comparison to Deal and Johnson but going forward it will be interesting to see whether GOP donors will help him maintain his current frontrunner status.

Former Governor Roy Barnes is set to announce that he will be entering the 2010 race for GA Governor today according to a report by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. This is a huge development for Democrats as it signals the entrance of their highest profile bench player.

Barnes, the GA Governor from 1999-2003, has shown fantastic fundraising prowess in the past and has the greatest name identification of any of the Democrats now in the running.Allies of his such as Attorney General Thurbert Baker and to a lesser extent State Democratic House Leader Dubose Porter may reassess their options now that Barnes entered the race but former GA National Guard leader David Poythress, who has traded barbs with Barnes already is unlikely to make a move thinking apparently he can carry the anti-Barnes banner the furthest. 

Certainly some advantages and disadvantages to this move by Barnes but I think it's good for Democrats to have a proven leader back at the top of ticket who can raise major cash. However, 2002 must serve as a lesson to Barnes and others about the cost of becoming too assured of one's perceived success and that a great ground game operation must be in place in order to assure turnout of Democratic voters in a midterm election. I feel Barnes, who I've met and who is a very bright and capable leader can learn from these mistake though and run a very effective race in 2010 if current polling numbers are any indication.

 

This is my Democratically friendly redistricting plan for GA, assuming Democrats are able to win back both the Governor and the State House. Basically what I did was recreate a lot of what the GA Democrats in the legislature did in the 2002 redistricting while compensating for population growth. The end result is what appears to be a 7-7 delegation but unfortunately I cannot seem to place 22 thousand people who are somewhere on my map unaccounted for but for a state of 10 million I think that’s alright for now. Further analysis below the jump.

North GA:

Middle GA:

South GA:

Metro Atlanta:

1st district:

Nearly 71 percent white, contains much of what it does now but takes in a good bit of GOP friendly territory in South Central GA and in order to shore up Barrow’s district loses Democratically friendly Liberty county to Barrow’s new district the 14th (basically the 12th from 2002-05).

2nd district:

Majority minority district in SW GA very similar to what it is now but takes a little friendly Democratic territory from the 3rd and 1st that wasn’t doing those Republicans any good.

3rd district:

A Republican district in Central/ South GA that stretches beyond the metro ATL boundaries in existence now to take in Republican areas of the 2nd and 8th as well as packing in Republicans in south Metro ATL to help out Marshall.

4th District:

Pretty similar to what we see now, dominated by Dekalb yet taking in some white GOP areas of SE Gwinnett to help out the newly Democratically friendly 7th district. Majority black but not as much as the current 4th.

5th District:

Majority black, yet like the 4th gentrification efforts are somewhat cutting down the margins once seen here as well but the new voters moving in are similarly friendly to Democrats. May elect a white Representative in a decade or less but very safe for John Lewis (D-Atlanta).

6th District:

As much as I wanted to mess with Tom “Obama hates bailout bankers” Price I decided to just shore up his GOP friendly north Metro Atlanta district. Close to 74 percent white and basically taking in all his familiar Ned Flander’s territory.

7th District:

This and the 14th are probably my most ambitious districts. Only 41.6 percent white making this now longer Linder territory. This would be a new open seat with significant numbers of blacks (33 percent) and also Hispanics and Asians (collectively equaling around 23 percent). This might seem unfeasible but eventually these growing minority groups in Gwinnett will be placed in a Democratic district.

8th District:

Oh man this would drive Republicans wanting to get rid of Marshall crazy. Only 50.5 white (this area of South Metro ATL is becoming much more minority concentrated). Some touch point continuity going on here but it had to be done to reach down into the black belt around Columbus and to connect the Metro and Middle GA parts of the district.

9th District:

Pretty much the same as before yet a tad bit whiter and more GOP friendly. I did by giving Barrow’s 14th highly Hispanic areas in downtown Gainesville. I think both Representatives in the 9th and 14th would appreciate this as this area will eventually be competitive for Democrats as the Hispanic population increases. Also had to give some territory to the 10th which is not growing as fast and without Athens needed some more territory.

10th District:

Basically take everything Democrats hate about the current 10th, 12th and to a lesser extent the 8th and put them into this district and voila, you’ve got yourself a very safe GOP district for Paul Broun. Takes out NE GA to give to the new 9th representative and most importantly gives Athens back to John Barrow in the 14th.

11th District:

Due to popular demand, a Cobb County resident will no longer represent NW GA as these areas are very different (metro versus rural). As far as making this any more Democratically friendly though that’s a negative as this district takes in basically half of west GA. My most contiguous district with no tentacles so enjoy you good government folks!

12th District:

Probably where Linder would wind up (this could be the 7th for all I care), 66 percent white, dominated by north Gwinnett and western Cobb county as well as fast growing South Forsyth county.

13th District:

A higher black percentage than today (49 percent versus 41 percent) this district is probably too safe and could stand to trade a little more territory with the new Democratic 7th but I am sure this would make David Scott happy.

14th district:

I probably messed up by making this district majority minority (46.4 percent white) but with the current white percentage at 52% that is easy to do. However, with a little more careful work this district could be majority white again by taking out the Hispanic majority precincts in Gainesville which was probably a result of my overly ambitious efforts.

Well that’s it. I am sure this wouldn’t pass mustard as is but a look at what could be if Democrats gained some major ground in 2010.

Thoughts? Questions? Sorry for the formatting errors.

Unbelievable news today in the Georgia governor’s race as Republican front runner and current Lt. Governor Casey Cagle drops out of the race.

http://blogs.ajc.com/gold-dome…

Cagle told reporters he has had back and neck pain for several years, but it progressed during the 2009 session to the point where he had some paralysis. He tried therapy, but was advised that he needed surgery.

“I’ve been diagnosed with some serious nerve and bone problems and a degenerative spinal condition,” he told reporters at a Capitol news conference.  ” The issue could be hereditary or it could be the result of an old injury, but the unfortunate reality is that it requires immediate surgical treatment.”

 

While the “back problems” may have sealed the deal for Cagle there are also rumors circulating that he may have had an alleged affair with a female staffer in his office. This announcement however makes any investigation into that largely irrelevant.

This is great news for Georgia Democrats as this moves the race from what I would call a Lean GOP to a true tossup as no other GOP contenders really stand out at the top of their field of 3 (Insurance Commissioner Oxendine has many ethical questions surrounding him and SOS Karen Handel is hated for the partisan hackery she displayed in the 2008 elections and viewed as pretty inept the other candidate is a non name state representative from rural south GA).

Democrats also have a contested primary with former Adj. General David Poythress, State Minority leader Dubose Porter and Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the mix.

State Minority Leader and longtime state representative Dubose Porter (D-Dublin) is throwing his hat in the ring for the Democratic nomination for Governor of Georgia.

From the Dublin Courier Herald :

I have wanted to run before but felt it was best to wait until all of my children were out of high school. My youngest, the twins, are now freshmen at UGA and it seems as if this session’s lack of leadership has coincided correctly with that goal. It is a huge responsibility, but we can’t continue on this path and emerge productively in this economic downturn without new leadership.

   I realize a Democrat will have a hard time in what is seen as a red state. For one to win, we must look past the primary and honestly ask who can win a general election. My work on the issues will carry me in Atlanta, but according to the pundits from far right to far left it will take a candidate with my core values to connect with those outside of Atlanta.

I have met to Dubose before and heard him speak in front of a group of fellow college students and I must say he is a compelling candidate with ties across the state through his leadership in the General Assembly however with Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the race it looks like this could be a tough primary. I trust Dubose, Thurbert Baker and also already announced candidate General David Poythress will try to keep the primary fight clean and hopefully whoever the GA Democrats nominate will be able to bring together a winning coalition for the November election.  

http://news.mywebpal.com/news_…

Here’s part five of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Georgia has 13 representatives: 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline May 2, primary July 15

Note that GA districts changed in 2005 due to Republican redistricting.

Hawaii has 2 representatives, both Democrats

Filing deadline July 22, primary Sept 20

Idaho has 2 representatives, both Republicans

Filing deadline March 21, primary May 27

District: GA-01

Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville

Representative Jack Kingston (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, Joe Nelson raised just over $100K, Kingston about 10 times as much

Current opponents Bill Gillespie

Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Long shot, although Gillespie is a war veteran, which should play well here

District: GA-02

Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus

Representative Sanford Bishop (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Notes on opponents Each raised about $25K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-03

Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state

Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 68-32

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents neither raised much over $50,000

Current opponents None declared, but several considering (see WIKI)

Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-04

Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta

Representative Hank Johnson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Catherine Davis raised $230 K to Johnson’s $786K.  Johnson replaced Cynthia McKinney and did even better than she did against Davis

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-05

Location Atlanta and some suburbs

Representative John Lewis (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 26-74

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: GA-06

Location Northern central GA

Representative Tom Price (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-29

Notes on opponents Steve Sinton raised $100K to Price’s $2 million

Current opponents Only a primary declared

Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-07

Location Northern central GA

Representative John Linder (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: GA-08

Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie

Representative Jim Marshall (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, this was hotly contested, with the Republicans raising about the same as Marshall each time (roughly $1 million in 2004 and $2 million in 2006)

Current opponents  A primary from Steve Nowak, and in the general, Rick Goddard, the NRCC candidate

Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).

Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don’t use that term lightly.  Is it worth it? I don’t really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district?  It partly depends on turnout.  This is one district where Obama may have coattails, in that I have to assume he would draw more Blacks into the race. But I can’t find much about Nowak.  Marshall is vulnerable, in any  case

District: GA-09

Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC.

Representative Nathan Deal (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 77-23

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Joe Inman , maybe others

Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 7th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-10

Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) and including Macon and Augusta

Representative Paul Broun (R)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Bobby Saxon

Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-11

Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta

Representative Phil Gingrey (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents In 2006, the opponent raised no money.  2004 is not really relevant

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 5th most Republican (per Cook PVI)

Assessment Long shot

District: GA-12

Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta

Representative John Barrow (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000

2004 margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents Max Burns, the opponent in both 2004 and 2006, raised lots of money; in 2004, he outspent Barrow by $1 million

Current opponents Chris Edenfield and Wayne Mosley and Ray McKinney; maybe others

Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: GA-13

Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta

Representative David Scott (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Notes on opponents Deborah Honeycutt, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, almost exactly even with Scott

Current opponents Honeycutt again

Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: HI-01

Location Honolulu and immediate environs

Representative Neil Abercrombie (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Notes on opponents In 2004, Dalton Tanoaka raised over $200K, Abercrombie about $1 million.  In 2006, Richard Hough raised very little

Current opponents Richard Hough (who lost in 2006)

Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: HI-02

Location All of HI except Honolulu

Representative Mazie Hirono (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents Bob Hogue raised $200K to Hirono’s $1.4 million

Current opponents Bob Hogue

Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian

Assessment Safe

District: ID-01

Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise

Representative Bill Sali (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents Larry Grant raised about $750K to Sali’s $1 million

Current opponents   Larry Grant

and

Rand Lewis (site down)

and

Walt Minnick

Sali is also being primaried

Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Even for a Republican, Sali is crazy. Even for an Idaho Republican Sali is crazy.  He’s really nuts.  He might even lose in this Republican stronghold (I hope he wins the primary)

District: ID-02

Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY

Representative Mike Simpson

First elected  1998

2006 margin 62-34

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson’s $570K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Long shot