Earlier this week fundraising data for the first half of the year was released (in off-years fundraising numbers are realesed biannually in GA state races like GOV, LT GOV, SOS, etc.) and there were some definite surprises on both the Democratic and Republican side with expectations exceeded by some (those who I consider winners) and underacheived by others (the losers) with one notable exception who has not formally declared his candidacy yet, Fmr. Governor Roy Barnes. I have to give credit to TheUnknown285 who has already provided data on this matter.
Winners
Democratic side:
Thurbert Baker raised close to $700,000 for a candidate who only started raising money in April this is pretty damn impressive and higher than many expected.
GOP side:
Nathan Deal raised over $1.2 million, really incredible given his detachment from statewide politics. Deal concerns me as a really difficult general election candidate because he is rather unknown outside of his district unlike other foot-in-mouth Republcan Congressmen in GA and he can raise a ton of $$$.
Eric Johnson raised close to $1 million, somewhat like Deal in this number came out of nowhere but given his leadership role in the State Senate and his unique geographical location like Deal he was able to rake in the big bucks.
Losers
Democratic side:
Dubose Porter only raised $231,250 slightly more than Democratic Attorney General candidate Rob Teilhet which says a lot for Teilhet but is a rather discouraging statement about Porter's viability in the primary. I really like Porter's populist style but he'll need to ramp up the fundraising if he's serious about this gubernatorial race otherwise I think it'd be wise for him to look elsewhere to run for something.
David Poythress while sitting on a nice amount ($304,045.00) already Poythress lacked in the first half of 2008 raising a paltry $156,462.20 especially considering he spent $196,407.42 over the same amount of time. I know he's in it for the long haul but to be taken seriously he'll need to turn the fundraising around asap.
GOP side:
Karen Handel while raising significantly more than Porter or Poythress, will need to do better than $431,178.57 in December to make it through a bruising GOP primary. I think she's in substantial risk of being passed over by the Deal and Johnson if the fundraising disparity continues.
Austin Scott $180,620.00 is not going to cut it. His “walking” tour would be interesting in different circumstances but in an open race with a ton of different options on the GOP and Democratic side I don't see him really catching on.
Neutral/ unknown
Democratic side:
Roy Barnes as stated above, Barnes has just launched his website and has not started fundraising in earnest reporting $0 raised so far. But given his penchant for fundraising in the past ($22 million in 2002!) I think Barnes will be bringing in a solid amount come December but with his frontrunner status come expectations that have to be met to secure the Democratic nomination without a fratricidal primary.
GOP side:
John Oxendine coming in with over $1 million so far makes this fundraising period not as critical for Oxendine as other candidates yet $416,580.35 this year so far is lagging in comparison to Deal and Johnson but going forward it will be interesting to see whether GOP donors will help him maintain his current frontrunner status.
Isn’t a large portion of Deal’s haul from a loan? If so, I think that dulls some of the shine from his numbers.
I definitely think Johnson is a real winner. A few months ago, I was worried he would drop out to run for re-election instead, ending whatever already tiny chances we had at his seat. Now, he’s a real contender.
I think a loser may be the statewide Republican Party. With four very viable candidates (Johnson, Oxendine, Deal, and Handel) they’re looking at a the very real possiblity of a nasty, competitive primary and seem to be almost assured of a runoff. And with a race that competitive, there may be lawsuits over absentee ballots if the spots for first and second are that close.
I agree about Austin Scott. He’s a loser here, and I worry, so are we. I think there’s a realy possibility he’ll come to the conclusion that he has no chance and will run for re-election instead, taking a huge pickup opportunity for us off the table or, I’ve heard speculated, will challenge Jim Marshall.
I think we’re seeing the beginning of Porter and Poythress’ resources dry up. And Poythress’ numbers come despite the attention he got for his ad calling out the secessionistas. Baker entered this quarter, seemingly sapping up the thunder from Poythress and Porter. I think Barnes will probably do likewise.
Nice to see Teilhet had some good numbers.
the real winner here is Roy Barnes.
Aside from Baker, no one is raising a damn thing and while Baker’s total is impressive, it certaintly isn’t eye-popping. Barnes will be able to walk in here and rout nearly the entire field without breaking a sweat.