Author: fitchfan28

First off, let me say that I am the Finance Director for Mike Freeman for Congress. Mike is a retired minister and retired Captain in the U.S. Navy Reserve (a chaplain). He's also the only declared Democratic candidate for the Georgia 9th Congressional district special election.

On Sunday night, Representative Nathan Deal (GA-09), a turncoat former Democrat from Gainesville, resigned his seat to run full time for Governor (as well as to avoid a potential ethics investigation).

To everyone in Georgia's surprise, it was announced that the special election to fill his seat would be on April 27 May 11th, a little over a 6 weeks away!

While this certainly was a surprise it creates a great opportunity for Democrats to achieve what otherwise would be an impossible challenge. With over 10 Republicans running currently (along with a right-wing independent) a single Democrat has taken this challenge because he thinks no race should go unopposed and because he thinks he can best represent the district.

Georgia is no stranger to special elections, with the most famous example occuring in 2007 when Democrat James Marlow narrowly missed a run-off election by around 100 votes. I was a volunteer on that campaign and it still sickens me to think of what could have been done to prevent this, especially since Paul Broun went on to win the run-off election. That race differs from this one in a very important way. Marlow was unable to “secure” the Democratic nod and 2 other Democrats participated- splitting the Democratic vote 3 ways.

In the 9th, Mike Freeman is the only Democratic candidate running. Let me repeat-the ONLY Democrat- with 11 other candidates potentially running that will be splitting the right-wing vote. So instead of dividing up the 40 percent or so of the vote by 3 different candidates (as was the case in the 10th special campaign of 2007) he will be able to garner all of the Democratic support available without opposition.

Mike isn't a professional politician unlike several of his opponents. We think that this fact alone gives us an additional advantage. The campaign strategy is to run an aggressive field plan, with 3 offices opening up this week in the district. We plan to target as many people as possible throughout the 15 counties in the district through canvassing and phonebanking and we need all the help we can get to make the run-off election.

We can shock the political establishment and draw national support which could put Democrats in position to take a Republican seat and define the narrative for the 2010 cycle. Today, we're sending out an email to our supporters asking them to make a contribution of $20.10 to our efforts to kick off Democrats efforts to pick up seats in 2010! If you'd like to join the fight, please visit our ActBlue page or our website. This race is a great opportunity to show the Republicans that Democrats are fighting back, even in very red districts.

 Crossposted at Daily Kos.

An 9-5 Democratic map probably. I will quickly give a rundown of the districts followed by a few maps of the districts.

District 1 (blue): 46% black and 45% white, probably John Lewis territory more than anyone else but man would the folks in Paulding and Bartow counties be pissed to be in a district with the west side of ATL. Probably the most ridiculous district.

District 2 (green): 45 percent white and 44 percent black, amazing considering how all the black population is concentrated in a chunk of Fulton and a sliver of Clayton. David Scott would probably run here.

District 3 (purple): 48% white and 42% black, Clayton and east Dekalb make this a Democratic district probably. I have no idea what Democrat would run though.

District 4 (red): 49 percent white, 39 percent black. Probably my favorite district. White percentage doesn’t necessarily represent GOP percentage because of Clarke county which is 60% white yet 60% Democratic. I think Hank Johnson would want this one or…

District 5 (yellow): Very diverse district, 40 percent white, 34 percent black, 17 percent Hispanic, 8 percent Asian. Similar to the 4th, white percentage includes liberal whites in east Fulton/ west central Dekalb. Another possibility for Hank Johnson?

District 6 (teal): 49% white, 25 percent black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian. Getting desperate here but this would no doubt be a Democratic district due to once again liberal whites in ATL plus the majority-minority status of the district. Have no idea who would represent this but definitely not Tom Price.

District 7 (gray): Finally a GOP seat in Metro ATL (6-1 delegation for Dems so far)! Tom Price and Phil Gingrey battle it out here for a 76 percent white, safe GOP district.

District 8 (periwinkle): I’m pretty sure I helped Jim Marshall out with this one stretching across Middle GA. 56% white, 39% black probably pretty close to 50-50 for Obama/McCain (7-1 Dems).

District 9 (light blue): Screwed up a little here but Barrow should be safe. 54% white, 40% black so less black than now. I was attempting to get a Democratic south east GA district by diluting Barrow’s district but you’ll see that’s not happening… (but we have a 8-1 Dem advantage).

District 10 (neon pink): 65% white and 28% black. Not quite good enough to elect a Democrat considering the hostility of SE GA whites towards Democrats (8-2 Democrats).

District 11 (yellow-green): pretty much the same as Sanford Bishop’s pre 2006 district. 52 percent white and 41 percent black I think a Democrat would be fine here (9-2 Democrats).

Districts 12-14: well the Republicans had to go somewhere… All these districts are between 75 to 82% white. I think the 12th would be Westmoreland’s, the 13th is similar to the open 9th and the 14th get’s rid of Paul Broun so hurray for that!

With the three additional GOP seats that brings me to a 9-5 Democratic advantage. Pretty unrealistic but entirely possible if not for the VRA guidelines. Honestly though I think this might expand black representation because of the additional metro ATL seats but I worry in a bad cycle the 11th and the 9th could be in danger for Democrats. Still even if those fell we’d be tied 7-7, gaining a seat.

North GA:

South GA:

Middle GA:

Metro ATL:

This may be a long time coming but considering the shocking Bayh retirement and the circus show that is the re-introduction of Harold Ford Jr., and of course the long-term implosion of Senator Joe Lieberman, it seems as though the ideals of the “centrist” wing of the Democratic party aka the DLC are rapidly deteriorating.

DLC ideology and it’s popularity among the leadership of the Democratic party was all the rage in the 90s with the success of Bill Clinton who became the first two term elected Democratic president since FDR, albeit without winning a majority of the popular vote. But since his victories Democrats have see success electorally from a much more diverse group ideologically most prominently high-lighted by the election of President Obama and the Pelosi lead majority in Congress.

This is certainly not to say that moderate and conservative Democrats are completely irrelevant. The conservative Blue Dog Democratic caucus established their power in this Congress proving enormously important in close votes in the House. Yet the party apparatus seems to have shifted away from being run from purely a what’s best for the DLC approach, which is a radical departure from the Clinton/ Daschle/ Gephardt party of the 90s-2007.

What will this mean electorally for Democrats? Well that can be hard to say. Even a weakened centrist/conservative alliance among Democrats in the House and Senate can prove extremely important with the ridiculous necessity of overcoming the filibuster in the Senate and the propensity for defections among Democrats in the House both from the left and right.

However, in the crucial leadership roles, more progressive leaning elements in the Democratic Party are in a particularly attractive state for attracting more prominence in a situation where a powerful conservative faction like the DLC is in chaos. Even the Senate where conservative Democrats are given more power due to the nature of the body and the all-important filibuster “requirement” cracks may be emerging from the frustration over the slow pace and incremental approach of health care reform.

Signs of the importance of this move away from the DLC are becoming evident with a report today from CBS News that four Democratic Senators including two up for reelection in potentially competitive seats 2010 (Michael Bennett D-CO and Kirsten Gillibrand D-NY) are asking for reconciliation to be used to pass health care reform with a public option included. The two other Senators (Sherrod Brown D-OH and Jeff Merkely D-OR) are also notable for the progressive campaign platform both ran with in their defeats of Republican incumbents in 2006 and 2008 respectively.

Whether more Democrats running for reelection or competitive open seats will follow these Senators’ lead is unknown but if so it could point to a new emphasis on the part of vuluranble Democrats to run on a platform more supportive of progressive ideals rather than the mushy, centrist approach of their 1990s peers like Senator Bayh.  

Tonight is the mayoral election runoff for the city of Atlanta. Please feel free to post results below in the comments section and how you feel the night is going.

I found an excellent website for the results from the Fulton County board of elections. In case you're wondering I consider Reed to be the better candidate in this nonpartisan race because he was an excellent Democratic state senator and he got the endorsement from many top Democrats in the state like Former Governor Roy Barnes, 2008 US Senate Candidate Jim Martin and others.

As of 9:33 with 33 percent reporting:

Reed at 56.24%

Norwood at 43.76%

 Please feel free to update results for any other race in GA you see as well.

UPDATE: Getting tighter

As of 9:57

Reed at 53.88%

Norwood at 46.12%

UPDATE: Reed declares victory with 50.46 percent of the vote. He's just below the 1 point margin of victory needed to avoid a runoff so it's unclear if this is over completely but it looks like Reed has won it.

 UPDATE (12/05): Reed today was certified as the winner in the runoff but because his lead is less than 1 percent Norwood is allowed the option of a recount which she is requesting.

Earlier this week fundraising data for the first half of the year was released (in off-years fundraising numbers are realesed biannually in GA state races like GOV, LT GOV, SOS, etc.) and there were some definite surprises on both the Democratic and Republican side with expectations exceeded by some (those who I consider winners) and underacheived by others (the losers) with one notable exception who has not formally declared his candidacy yet, Fmr. Governor Roy Barnes. I have to give credit to TheUnknown285 who has already provided data on this matter.

Winners

Democratic side:

Thurbert Baker raised close to $700,000 for a candidate who only started raising money in April this is pretty damn impressive and higher than many expected.

GOP side:

Nathan Deal raised over $1.2 million, really incredible given his detachment from statewide politics. Deal concerns me as a really difficult general election candidate because he is rather unknown outside of his district unlike other foot-in-mouth Republcan Congressmen in GA and he can raise a ton of $$$.

Eric Johnson raised close to $1 million, somewhat like Deal in this number came out of nowhere but given his leadership role in the State Senate and his unique geographical location like Deal he was able to rake in the big bucks.

Losers

Democratic side:

Dubose Porter  only raised $231,250 slightly more than Democratic Attorney General candidate Rob Teilhet which says a lot for Teilhet but is a rather discouraging statement about Porter's viability in the primary. I really like Porter's populist style but he'll need to ramp up the fundraising if he's serious about this gubernatorial race otherwise I think it'd be wise for him to look elsewhere to run for something. 

David Poythress  while sitting on a nice amount ($304,045.00) already Poythress lacked in the first half of 2008 raising a paltry $156,462.20 especially considering he spent $196,407.42 over the same amount of time. I know he's in it for the long haul but to be taken seriously he'll need to turn the fundraising around asap. 

GOP side:

Karen Handel while raising significantly more than Porter or Poythress, will need to do better than $431,178.57 in December to make it through a bruising GOP primary. I think she's in substantial risk of being passed over by the Deal and Johnson if the fundraising disparity continues.

Austin Scott $180,620.00 is not going to cut it. His “walking” tour would be interesting in different circumstances but in an open race with a ton of different options on the GOP and Democratic side I don't see him really catching on.

Neutral/ unknown

Democratic side:

Roy Barnes as stated above, Barnes has just launched his website and has not started fundraising in earnest reporting $0 raised so far. But given his penchant for fundraising in the past ($22 million in 2002!) I think Barnes will be bringing in a solid amount come December but with his frontrunner status come expectations that have to be met to secure the Democratic nomination without a fratricidal primary.

GOP side:

John Oxendine coming in with over $1 million so far makes this fundraising period not as critical for Oxendine as other candidates yet $416,580.35 this year so far is lagging in comparison to Deal and Johnson but going forward it will be interesting to see whether GOP donors will help him maintain his current frontrunner status.

In Florida, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate and current state CFO Alex Sink finds herself with a 38-34 lead in a new poll by Quinnipiac University (margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points). . This is the first poll to show Sink in the lead and in the analysis offered by Quinnipiac gives some basic reasoning as to why Sink is in the lead (hint she's a Democrat!):

“One reason may be that in the survey he is identified as a Republican and she a Democrat,” Brown added. “In Florida, as in much of the nation these days, the GOP label is not necessarily a plus, even though 50 percent of voters say the fact that Florida's governor has been Republican since 1998 has been good for the state, compared to 37 percent who say GOP rule has been bad for Florida.”

Sink indeed gets most of her strength due to a higher percentage of Democrats in Florida versus Republicans. Sink leads 72 – 11 percent among Democrats while McCollum is ahead 72 – 5 percent among Republicans and 32 – 27 percent among independent voters.

While a ton of voters are still undecided (25 percent), it is fortunate to see Sink with the early lead here as her candidancy points to great opportunity for Democrats to take back the Governor's manison, which has been held by Republicans since 1998. 

 

Former Governor Roy Barnes is set to announce that he will be entering the 2010 race for GA Governor today according to a report by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. This is a huge development for Democrats as it signals the entrance of their highest profile bench player.

Barnes, the GA Governor from 1999-2003, has shown fantastic fundraising prowess in the past and has the greatest name identification of any of the Democrats now in the running.Allies of his such as Attorney General Thurbert Baker and to a lesser extent State Democratic House Leader Dubose Porter may reassess their options now that Barnes entered the race but former GA National Guard leader David Poythress, who has traded barbs with Barnes already is unlikely to make a move thinking apparently he can carry the anti-Barnes banner the furthest. 

Certainly some advantages and disadvantages to this move by Barnes but I think it's good for Democrats to have a proven leader back at the top of ticket who can raise major cash. However, 2002 must serve as a lesson to Barnes and others about the cost of becoming too assured of one's perceived success and that a great ground game operation must be in place in order to assure turnout of Democratic voters in a midterm election. I feel Barnes, who I've met and who is a very bright and capable leader can learn from these mistake though and run a very effective race in 2010 if current polling numbers are any indication.

 

This is my Democratically friendly redistricting plan for GA, assuming Democrats are able to win back both the Governor and the State House. Basically what I did was recreate a lot of what the GA Democrats in the legislature did in the 2002 redistricting while compensating for population growth. The end result is what appears to be a 7-7 delegation but unfortunately I cannot seem to place 22 thousand people who are somewhere on my map unaccounted for but for a state of 10 million I think that’s alright for now. Further analysis below the jump.

North GA:

Middle GA:

South GA:

Metro Atlanta:

1st district:

Nearly 71 percent white, contains much of what it does now but takes in a good bit of GOP friendly territory in South Central GA and in order to shore up Barrow’s district loses Democratically friendly Liberty county to Barrow’s new district the 14th (basically the 12th from 2002-05).

2nd district:

Majority minority district in SW GA very similar to what it is now but takes a little friendly Democratic territory from the 3rd and 1st that wasn’t doing those Republicans any good.

3rd district:

A Republican district in Central/ South GA that stretches beyond the metro ATL boundaries in existence now to take in Republican areas of the 2nd and 8th as well as packing in Republicans in south Metro ATL to help out Marshall.

4th District:

Pretty similar to what we see now, dominated by Dekalb yet taking in some white GOP areas of SE Gwinnett to help out the newly Democratically friendly 7th district. Majority black but not as much as the current 4th.

5th District:

Majority black, yet like the 4th gentrification efforts are somewhat cutting down the margins once seen here as well but the new voters moving in are similarly friendly to Democrats. May elect a white Representative in a decade or less but very safe for John Lewis (D-Atlanta).

6th District:

As much as I wanted to mess with Tom “Obama hates bailout bankers” Price I decided to just shore up his GOP friendly north Metro Atlanta district. Close to 74 percent white and basically taking in all his familiar Ned Flander’s territory.

7th District:

This and the 14th are probably my most ambitious districts. Only 41.6 percent white making this now longer Linder territory. This would be a new open seat with significant numbers of blacks (33 percent) and also Hispanics and Asians (collectively equaling around 23 percent). This might seem unfeasible but eventually these growing minority groups in Gwinnett will be placed in a Democratic district.

8th District:

Oh man this would drive Republicans wanting to get rid of Marshall crazy. Only 50.5 white (this area of South Metro ATL is becoming much more minority concentrated). Some touch point continuity going on here but it had to be done to reach down into the black belt around Columbus and to connect the Metro and Middle GA parts of the district.

9th District:

Pretty much the same as before yet a tad bit whiter and more GOP friendly. I did by giving Barrow’s 14th highly Hispanic areas in downtown Gainesville. I think both Representatives in the 9th and 14th would appreciate this as this area will eventually be competitive for Democrats as the Hispanic population increases. Also had to give some territory to the 10th which is not growing as fast and without Athens needed some more territory.

10th District:

Basically take everything Democrats hate about the current 10th, 12th and to a lesser extent the 8th and put them into this district and voila, you’ve got yourself a very safe GOP district for Paul Broun. Takes out NE GA to give to the new 9th representative and most importantly gives Athens back to John Barrow in the 14th.

11th District:

Due to popular demand, a Cobb County resident will no longer represent NW GA as these areas are very different (metro versus rural). As far as making this any more Democratically friendly though that’s a negative as this district takes in basically half of west GA. My most contiguous district with no tentacles so enjoy you good government folks!

12th District:

Probably where Linder would wind up (this could be the 7th for all I care), 66 percent white, dominated by north Gwinnett and western Cobb county as well as fast growing South Forsyth county.

13th District:

A higher black percentage than today (49 percent versus 41 percent) this district is probably too safe and could stand to trade a little more territory with the new Democratic 7th but I am sure this would make David Scott happy.

14th district:

I probably messed up by making this district majority minority (46.4 percent white) but with the current white percentage at 52% that is easy to do. However, with a little more careful work this district could be majority white again by taking out the Hispanic majority precincts in Gainesville which was probably a result of my overly ambitious efforts.

Well that’s it. I am sure this wouldn’t pass mustard as is but a look at what could be if Democrats gained some major ground in 2010.

Thoughts? Questions? Sorry for the formatting errors.

Well it looks like we have got ourselves a candidate for the 5th district in western/northwestern Florida.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

This is probably the area of Florida I know the least. All I know is that the 5th was represented by a Democrat until 2002 and then Republicans changed the district to get rid of her and McCain received 56 percent of the vote here so it will be a tough race. The guy running has an interesting story to say the least (he introduced Joe Biden as John McCain at a rally??)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Unbelievable news today in the Georgia governor’s race as Republican front runner and current Lt. Governor Casey Cagle drops out of the race.

http://blogs.ajc.com/gold-dome…

Cagle told reporters he has had back and neck pain for several years, but it progressed during the 2009 session to the point where he had some paralysis. He tried therapy, but was advised that he needed surgery.

“I’ve been diagnosed with some serious nerve and bone problems and a degenerative spinal condition,” he told reporters at a Capitol news conference.  ” The issue could be hereditary or it could be the result of an old injury, but the unfortunate reality is that it requires immediate surgical treatment.”

 

While the “back problems” may have sealed the deal for Cagle there are also rumors circulating that he may have had an alleged affair with a female staffer in his office. This announcement however makes any investigation into that largely irrelevant.

This is great news for Georgia Democrats as this moves the race from what I would call a Lean GOP to a true tossup as no other GOP contenders really stand out at the top of their field of 3 (Insurance Commissioner Oxendine has many ethical questions surrounding him and SOS Karen Handel is hated for the partisan hackery she displayed in the 2008 elections and viewed as pretty inept the other candidate is a non name state representative from rural south GA).

Democrats also have a contested primary with former Adj. General David Poythress, State Minority leader Dubose Porter and Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the mix.