Tag: Mike McMahon

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: As we mentioned on the front page yesterday, Andrew Romanoff won the Democratic primary precinct-level caucuses last night; the final tally, percentage-wise, was 51-42 (with 7% uncommitted) over Michael Bennet (who, by the way, hit the airwaves with the first TV spot yesterday, a decidedly anti-Washington ad). Things were actually much closer on the GOP side, where it looks like ultra-conservative Weld County DA Ken Buck is actually leading establishment fave Jane Norton by a paper-thin margin (37.9% to 37.7%). Of course, the activist-dominated straw polls are going to be Buck’s strong suit and his strength here may not translate as well to the broader GOP electorate, but he performed well enough to show that he’s in this for the long haul. (A similar dynamic played out in the Governor’s race, where ex-Rep. Scott McInnis easily beat teabagger Dan Maes, 61-39, although Maes has polled in the single digits out in reality.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s monthly poll of the North Carolina Senate race general election shows little change, with Richard Burr (with a 35/37 approval) still winning in very humdrum fashion. Burr leads Elaine Marshall 41-36 (a positive trend, as she was down by 10 last month, although she was also within 5 of Burr in December). He also leads both Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 43-32, and leads Generic Dem only 41-39. With low familiarity for all three Dems (Marshall’s the best-known, but even she generates 71% “not sure”s), PPP’s Tom Jensen expects the race to tighten once they actually have a nominee.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some food for thought on why Dino Rossi has retreated back to the private sector and has seemed reluctant to come back out to play, despite the NRSC’s constant entreaties: his financial links to Seattle real estate developer Michael Mastro, whose local real estate empire collapsed in late 2008, leaving hundreds of investors out to dry.

• MA-Gov: Here’s more evidence that Tim Cahill, a Democrat until a few months ago, is heading off to the right to try and claim some of Republican Charlie Baker’s turf for his independent challenge to Deval Patrick: he fessed up to having voted for John McCain and is attacking Massachusetts’s universal health care plan (which even Scott Brown didn’t have a beef with, during his campaign) and saying that if the nation took the same approach it would be bankrupt “in four years.”

• NM-Gov: Oooops. Pete Domenici Jr. got a little presumptuous prior to the state’s Republican convention, issuing fliers touting his “great success” and his getting put on the ballot. Turns out neither happened — his 5% showing was last place, not a great success, and didn’t qualify him for the ballot either (he can still do so by gathering signatures).

• NY-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Democratic Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy is gearing up to challenge ex-Rep. Rick Lazio for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He hired a Republican consultant, Michael Hook, to help with preparations. Meanwhile, will the last person left in David Paterson‘s employ please turn the lights out? Another top staffer, press secretary Marissa Shorenstein just hit the exits today.

• PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Could ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel be knocked off the Democratic gubernatorial primary ballot? That’s what Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is trying to make happen, as his team is challenging the validity of Hoeffel’s 7,632 ballot petitions. In order to qualify for the ballot, candidates need 2,000 valid signatures, including at least 100 from 10 different counties. (JL) Hoeffel’s not the only one; Joe Sestak‘s also challenging signatures in the Senate primary. Sestak’s target isn’t Arlen Specter, though, but rather Joseph Vodvarka, a Pittsburgh-area businessman who was a surprise last-minute filer and is the primary’s only third wheel. Sestak, no doubt, is worried that Vodvarka could peel off enough anti-Specter votes to throw a very close election.

• HI-01: Here’s a sign of life from the seemingly placid Colleen Hanabusa campaign; she just got the endorsement of the Hawaii State Teachers’ Association. (Not that it was likely they’d endorse Ed Case, but it’s still important for GOTV.)

• NY-13: Politico’s Ben Smith reported that Republican state Senator Andrew Lanza was taking a second look at the race in the 13th, now that the possibility of the Working Families Party withdrawing its support for Rep. Mike McMahon (if he votes against health care reform) could make a GOP challenge easier in the face of a divided left. The NRCC denied having reached out to Lanza; Lanza confirmed, though, that they had, but said that he was still unlikely to get in the race, preferring to focus on taking back GOP control of the state Senate. While the two GOPers in the race, Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti, both have had some fundraising success, Lanza would be a definite upgrade for the GOP in the unlikely event he runs.

• PA-06: Another bummer for Doug Pike, who seems to be losing as many endorsements as he’s gaining these days. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, who briefly explored a bid for U.S. Senate last year, has officially switched his endorsement from Pike to “neutral”. (JL)

• SC-03: With rivals Rex Rice and Jeff Duncan (both state Reps.) having gotten the lion’s share of the endorsements and money, state Sen. Shane Massey appears ready to drop out of the GOP primary field in the 3rd. It looks like it’ll be a two-man fight between the Huckabee-backed Rice and CfG-backed Duncan.

• VA-05: I’ll repeat all the usual caveats about how straw polls reflect the most extreme and engaged activists, not the broader electorate, bla bla bla, but there’s just no good way for state Sen. Robert Hurt to spin his showing at the Franklin County GOP Republican Womens’ straw poll. The establishment pick drew 11.6% of the vote, while self-funding teabagger Jim McKelvey grabbed 51%.

• WA-03: The Dick Army (aka FreedomWorks) has weighed in with a rare primary endorsement in a rather unexpected place: the GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. They endorsed David Castillo, the financial advisor and former Bush administration underling who stayed in the race despite state Rep. Jaime Herrera’s entry. Here’s the likely explanation: Castillo actually used to work for FreedomWorks’ predecessor organization, Citizens for a Sound Economy. Still, that’s a boost for Castillo, who’s been faring pretty well on the endorsements front against the establishment pick Herrera (and a boost for Dems, who’d no doubt like to see a brutal GOP primary). Meanwhile, on the Dem side, state Sen. Craig Pridemore is holding outgoing Rep. Brian Baird’s feet to the fire to get him to switch his vote to “yes” on health care reform; primary opponent Denny Heck has avoided taking much of a position on HCR.

• Census: Here’s some interesting background on how the Census protects respondents’ privacy. Not only are individual responses sealed for 72 years, but the Census intentionally adds “noise” that camouflages individuals whose particular combination of data would make them unique in some way and thus not be anonymous, at least to someone seeking them out (for instance, they cite the hypothetical only 65-year-old married woman attending college in North Dakota). (P.S.: You probably got your form in the last day or two. Please fill it out!)

AR-Sen: As Reid Wilson says, here’s something you don’t see every day – at least, not in a Dem primary. Blanche Lincoln is attacking the labor unions who are supporting her opponent, Bill Halter. Lincoln is also doing her best to warm the hearts of the faithful by taking John Boehner’s side in the latest kerfuffle over House procedural tactics with regard to healthcare reform.

CO-Sen: Dem Sen. Michael Bennet has his first TV ad up, a $300K buy in Denver and Colorado Springs. Greg Giroux suggests that the timing is deliberate, since Bennet will be looking to blunt any possible momentum Romanoff might have received coming out of last night’s precinct caucuses.

FL-Sen: All the cool kids have already done it, which means anyone getting on the Marco Rubio bandwagon at this late date is just a fair-weather fan. Still, GOP Rep. Tom Price is chair of the Republican Study Committee, which is the Borg collective mothership of right-wing crazy, so this gives Rubio the Good Wingnut Seal of Approval™. Resistance is futile.

MA-Sen: That didn’t take long – newly-minted GOP Sen. Scott Brown will be hosting his first inside-the-beltway fundraiser, at $1000 a head. Of course, it’ll be at the offices of lobbying firm Duane Morris. My advice to Scott Brown is to hold lots and lots of events with lobbyists. Also, become the anti-healthcare frontman for your party. Thanks for helping out with that, Mitch McConnell!

NV-Sen: Memo to reporters: Please include information about the size of ad buys (especially for attack ads) when you’re writing them up. There are too many tiny buys made solely for the purpose of spinning the media. We the people need to know if we’re being spun, too.

NY-Sen-B: Republican ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi officially offered himself up as a sacrificial lamb entered the race to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand yesterday.

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter snagged another valuable endorsement yesterday, this time from the 191,000-strong Pennsylvania State Education Association. (JL)

WI-Sen: A source close to Tommy Thompson’s jowls says that the former governor is “50-50” on whether he will play Droopy Dog in the upcoming remake.

SC-Gov: It’s payback time – Willard Mitt Romney is endorsing Mark Sanford protégé and state Rep. Nikki Haley for governor. Haley, as you’ve probably gathered, had endorsed Mittens in 2008 for the key SC primary. Other presidential wannabes have also returned the favor to their respective buddies; Reid Wilson has the full scorecard.

AZ-08: GOPer Jonathan Paton, who recently resigned from the state Senate to challenge Rep. Gabby Giffords, was added to the NRCC’s Young Guns program. Three other Republicans are seeking their party’s nod, including one candidate already on the Young Guns list, Marine Corps vet Jesse Kelly. Paton is almost certainly the establishment favorite, though.

LA-02: It’s hard to know what to make of the GOP’s attitude toward Joe Cao’s seat. On the one hand, they let him get mixed up with the sketchmeisters at BMW Direct. On the other, John Boehner just held a $500/person fundraiser for Cao last night on Capitol Hill. But then on the flipside, it looks like Cao will flip-flop and vote against healthcare this time, which will surely doom him in November. So why waste the money on him? Perhaps GOP bigs figure that buying Cao off will pay dividends when the party is able to point to unanimous opposition to the healthcare bill.

ND-AL: The campaign manager for former state House Majority Leader Rick Berg, a leading challenger to Earl Pomeroy, resigned yesterday, after misusing a state Republican Party email list and lying about it.

NY-13: Andy Stern wasn’t kidding. The SEIU is running a full-page ad in today’s Staten Island Advance urging Rep. Mike McMahon to vote in favor of healthcare reform. Greg Sargent has a copy of the full ad (PDF). This ad could presage a primary or third-party challenge should McMahon vote no, something Stern has already threatened.

SD-AL: Steve Hildebrand, a top Obama campaign official, says he’s considering a challenge to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary, particularly if she votes against healthcare.

DNC: This is Not News. DNC chair Tim Kaine says that Organizing for America will help Dems who vote “yes” on healthcare reform… but of course doesn’t say that he’ll withhold help from Dems who vote “no.” I wouldn’t expect him to, hence why this is Not News.

Healthcare: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce absolutely, definitely, most assuredly is not not NOT concern trolling House Democrats on the upcoming healthcare vote. They have our best interests at heart, and spent money on polling because they genuinely care about us.

Much more interesting poll numbers on healthcare can be found here. It turns out that the public was evenly divided on Medicare before it became law, too. Now, of course, the program is unassailable.

Kentucky: A bill to let independents vote in Democratic or Republican primaries died in the KY House.

WATN: I guess with Eric Massa stealing the limelight these days, Mark Foley feels emboldened to make his return to DC. He’ll be a guest at one of those unduly cozy black-tie beltway affairs, the Radio and TV Correspondents’ Dinner.

SSP: I’m not done begging. We’re at 1,386 Twitter followers. SO close to 1,400. Make it happen. Pretty please?

Our twice-daily digests are also open threads for any campaign-related news you might have. Interesting/helpful links always appreciated!

AR-Sen: State Sen. Gilbert Baker is jumping all over GOP primary opponent Rep. John Boozman for his extensive travels abroad on the taxpayer dime. In a statement, Baker promised that, as senator, he will be sure to visit Paris, London, and England – all towns in Arkansas.

CA-Sen: NOM, NOM, NOM. The haters at the National Organization for (Heterosexual-Only) Marriage have launched an ad campaign attacking Republican ex-Rep. Tom Campbell for supporting gay marriage. CQ describes it as a statewide ad buy, but at only $275,000, that doesn’t get you very much in California. Meanwhile, Carlyfornia has drunk the winger kool-aid – while she supported cap-and-trade when stumping for John McCain two years ago, now she’s against it. Of course.

FL-Sen: Heh – PPP asked Floridians who their favorite governors are out of the last five to hold office. Only 4% of Republicans answered Charlie Crist – fewer than the number who named either Dem Bob Graham or Dem Lawton Chiles.

PA-Sen: Republican pollster Susquehanna has GOPer Pat Toomey up over Arlen Specter by 42-36, in contrast to recent polls by Quinnipiac and Research 2000 showing Specter leading by that margin. Susquehanna didn’t poll the Dem primary, though, and more weirdly, they didn’t even test Joe Sestak against Toomey. Huh?

FL-22: Toward the bottom of an interesting, in-depth look at Base Connect (the sketchy GOP consultants formerly known as BMW Direct), Dave Weigel has a good catch. It turns out that the much-hyped vet Allen West is also a BMW client. He’s raised $1.2 million this cycle, an extraordinary sum for a challenger, but check out that burn rate – he’s spent over $500,000 so far. His opponent, Rep. Ron Klein, has only spent $95K. West still has a lot of cash on hand, but this revelation changes the picture somewhat.

NY-13: SEIU chief Andy Stern says that his organization will back independent candidacies against House Dems who vote against healthcare. It seems that Stern would prefer to challenge wayward Dems in primaries, but many filing deadlines have already passed. However, the one actual “nay” vote Stern cites, Rep. Mike McMahon, serves in New York, where the filing deadline does not close for quite some time. (And as per yesterday’s bullet, the Working Families Party said they won’t give their line to McMahon either.)

PA-06: The Pennsylvania SEIU, which just endorsed Arlen Specter, also gave their backing to Dem Doug Pike in his primary against Manan Trivedi.

Census: I received my 2010 Census form last night. Have you gotten yours yet?

Congress: Congress.org takes a look at former staffers who now occupy seats of their own on the Hill and notes that their ranks have been increasing since World War II. At least six staffers are running for office this year.

Lulz: Hard to believe, but disgraced and discredited “pollster” Strategic Vision claims to have undertaken a survey of the Georgia governor’s race. Even sadder, a flack for outgoing Gov. Sonny Perdue actually emailed around the “results” to reporters. Still waiting for that lawsuit against Nate Silver.

Teabagging: Virginia Thomas, the wife of none other than Sup. Ct. Justice Clarence Thomas, has formed a new lobbying company to exploit capitalize on teabagger sentiment. The LAT notes:

As a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, Liberty Central can raise unlimited amounts of corporate money and largely avoid disclosing its donors.

Because of a recent Supreme Court decision, Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission, the group may also spend corporate money freely to advocate for or against candidates for office.

Justice Thomas was part of the 5-4 majority in that case.

SSP: We have 287 fans on le Facebook so far. Pretty please take us to 300? I ain’t too proud to beg.

IL-Sen: In DC celebrating Greek Independence Day, Alexi Giannoulias also met with White House political advisors David Axelrod and Patrick Gaspard. No real word on what was discussed.

PA-Sen: Ouch – check out this blistering broadside directed at Joe Sestak from PA Democratic Chair T.J. Rooney. Rooney blasted Sestak in a sternly-worded letter for not paying his campaign workers the minimum wage and encouraged him to make a concerted effort to vote more often on the House floor. (JL)

TX-Sen: Will she resign or won’t she? The Politico catches up with GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, still fresh from her massively underwhelming performance in the Texas gubernatorial primary, and reports that she “has nothing to say, and I won’t for a while” regarding her future plans. Senate Republicans, apparently, are taking her silence as a sign that a resignation is not actually in the cards, despite KBH’s repeated promises in the past year that she would definitely be leaving the Senate regardless of the primary result. (JL)

CO-Gov: Teasing teaser Tom “The Teaser” Jensen teases us with this tease:

Well we’ll have Colorado Governor numbers out [today] and here’s a little preview – John Hickenlooper’s net favorability is 36 points better than Bill Ritter’s net approval. As you can imagine that makes Hickenlooper just a little more competitive in the horse race.

AL-05: It’s the party switch which keeps on backfiring. Unlike a lot of other, uh, Republicans, Parker Griffith accepted a bunch of money from Charlie Rangel, which he was in a hurry to give back. The problem is that Rangel donated in 2008 – and Griffith recently told angry ex-supporters (to whom he had promised refunds) that he couldn’t return their money from the previous cycle since it had already been spent.

GA-07: Ralph Reed says he’ll announce his plans today, but according to Roll Call, GOP bigs think he’s going to pass on a run. Reed’s previous run for office did not go particularly well – he got crushed in the 2006 Republican primary for GA Lt. Gov., losing 56-44.

LA-03: Lawyer Jeff Landry joined the GOP field to replace Rep. Charlie Melancon yesterday, but CQ thinks that there are bigger names still in the offing: House Speaker Hunt Downer and Scott Angelle, “a Democrat who was named by Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal in late 2007 to serve as Louisiana’s secretary of the Department of Natural Resources.” Dems are also holding out hope for a more prominent candidate, such as state Rep. Fred Mills (who might decide after the legislative session ends on June 21) or former Rep. Chris John.

MI-01: Teacher and former Charlevoix County commissioner Connie Saltonstall plans to challenge Bart Stupak in the Democratic primary, specifically citing Stupak’s infamous anti-choice amendment and threats to vote against healthcare reform if he doesn’t get his way. Saltonstall lost a race against incumbent GOP state Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer in 2008, 61-37.

NM-01: NRCC Chair Pete Sessions will campaign in Albuquerque with fellow GOPer Jon Barela, who is hoping to unseat frosh Dem Martin Heinrich.

NY-13: Here’s a nice score for frosh Dem Rep. Mike McMahon. Richmond County Borough President James Molinaro, an elected Republican who came up with the Conservative Party, has endorsed McMahon for another term in the House. Molinaro endorsed McMahon in 2008, but that was against the detested specimen that was Bob Straniere, who seemed to turn off just about every member of the Republican and Conservative Staten Island hierarchy. (JL)

NY-29: David Paterson says that he’s going to call the special election “as soon as possible,” and that he doesn’t think the seat will be left vacant for the rest of the year.

House: Some chair shuffling as 69-year-old Rep. Norm Dicks, the second most-senior member of the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, takes over the reins in the wake of John Murtha’s passing, as expected. This mondo committee post potentially means tons more campaign donations will head Dicks’ way, giving him a chance to shower that wealth on others.

WATN?: Ex-Rep. Eric Massa is now under investigation “for allegations that he groped multiple male staffers working in his office.” Also yesterday, Glenn Beck apologized at the end of his Massa interview, saying: “America, I’m going to shoot straight to you. I think I’ve wasted your time.”

So there are three ways Bob from Manhattan can get off of the ballot, death, moving out of the state and being nominated for a judgeship.  Last night he was nominated, possibly against his desire, for a judgeship position.  From the NY Post;

Republican Robert Straniere, who’s running for Rep. Vito Fossella’s seat, was nominated as a Manhattan judicial candidate last night – a move that could pave the way for the disgraced congressman to get back on the ballot and run for re-election.

Several Republican sources said the New York County GOP made the nomination with the understanding that Straniere would accept it.

But Straniere, a former Staten Island assemblyman who’s been at odds with fellow Republicans, hasn’t been contacted about the judicial post and “unequivocally” plans to turn it down, his spokesman told The Post.

There are very mixed signals here. Earlier last week there was polling going around indicating Fossella or someone close to him were looking to see if he could win re-election, if only he could find a way back on the ballot.  We had a quick New York civics lesson on how you replace a nominee on the ballot when Paul Atanasio, the Conservative Party nominee in this race was nominated for a judicial position, allowing the state party to then replace him with some no name.

Bob Straniere is saying he doesn’t want the judgeship and is running for Congress.  Bob can simply not accept it and this farce of a Fossella comeback is dead.  It looks like this is the most likely situation, but certainly if Fossella wants in you never know what offer Straniere might get.  

This simply could just be a lot of political pressure and maneuvering by a party that  has lost its leadership and is falling apart or this potentially, and I say this with much hesitation, could open up the seat for Fossella to be renominated.  I don’t see a path for Fossella to win if he goes down this road.  He does not have the Conservative Party line and at this point can not get it.  He has a trial date later this Fall in October for his DWI arrest.  It would take immense arrogance on his part to jump back in.  Since the Republican Party has been a joke in this race for months now I am not ruling it out.

stay tuned…

(From the diaries with a few light edits. Be sure to bookmark Jonah’s NY-13 Blog for the latest news on this race. – promoted by James L.)

All signs point to a McMahon vs. Harrison primary on the Democratic side of this race.  Today brings us news that we might also have a primary on the Republican side.  Dr. Jamshad Wyne (R), GOP Finance Chair in Staten Island has indeed entered the race;

The Todt Hill resident, who has gone back and forth on the race over the last two weeks, announced yesterday he would challenge Frank Powers, a Metropolitan Transportation Authority board member and retired Wall Street executive, for the GOP congressional nod.

Wyne had stated after Frank Powers won the Richmond County GOP endorsement that he likely would vote for the Democrat Mike McMahon.  There is a lot of frustration on the GOP side among ranking members with their party’s choice.  If Wyne does follow through and challenges Powers in a primary that would be even better news for us.  My guess though is we will see the party get him out, whether offering him the nomination for another office or just removing him from the party leadership.

Also interesting is the possibility that the Conservative Party will break with the GOP nomination and support their own candidate, possibly Paul Atanasio.  If this happens this seats even further to a likely pick up for us. Primaries are scheduled for September 9th.

UPDATE: Domenic Recchia withdraws:

As Democrats, we have an incredible opportunity before us, to turn a red seat blue and bring true change and real leadership to the residents in Staten Island and Brooklyn. That will not happen if we are not united as a party.

Therefore, I am withdrawing my bid for the 13th Congressional district, and will support our party’s nominee, Mike McMahon.

Thank you to all of the people who believed in me, worked for me and fought for me over the last year – especially those who encouraged me to stay in the race despite the altered political landscape.

Most of all, I would like to thank the voters of the congressional district, who welcomed me with open arms and believed in my message.

I have not made any decisions about my political future and have no further comment at this time.

The Republican County Committee is holding candidate interviews tonight, where if you can believe former candidate GOP chairman John Friscia, Lisa Giovinazzo is the front runner for their endorsement.  Lisa Giovinazzo as he tells us, because I had no clue is an NY1 reporter.  She is also known for losing to McMahon previously when she ran against him in 2003 for his City Council seat.  As a third/fourth/fifth tier candidate I am sure everyone is familiar with  her, but if not here is her 2003 candidate bio.

This seems to be a good indication that State Senator Andrew Lanza is all but out of the race.

update:

State Senate Lanza officially withdraws.

(Impressive work.  From the diaries with a few minor edits. – promoted by James L.)

By now you know Rep. Vito Fossella did some very bad things.  There are a lot of news articles and blog posts covering his immoral behavior.  I don’t need to get into that, instead I am here to provide a better understanding of just who these potential Democratic candidates are that are suddenly being talked about.  To start with, only one candidate has declared for this race, Steve Harrison.  Additionally, City Councilman Domenic Recchia is raising money for this race but has yet to declare his candidacy or put together a campaign staff of any kind for almost eight months.  The rest of this diary is going to focus on three Democratic office holders from Staten Island; State Senator Diane Savino, Assemblyman Mike Cusick and City Councilman Mike McMahon.  

Assembly Member Mike Cuisck

Mike Cusick is a State Assembly member representing the 63rd Assembly District covering mid island of Staten Island. His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);

From his Assembly bio;

Prior to his election, Cusick served as Director of Constituent Services for U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer.

snip

He was instrumental in researching and developing statewide legislation, including the law to close the Fresh Kills Landfill.

Assemblymember Cusick was first elected to the Assembly in 2002 and has won re-election in 2004 and 2006.  He is up for re-election this November.

2006

Cusick (D, I, C, WFP): 62% (13,086)

Grossman (R): 38% (5,775)

Congressional totals in the 63 AD

Harrison (D, WFP):  44% (8,547)

Vito (R, I, C):  56% (11,215)

Why he could be the nominee

Cusick represents the mid-island which separates the very Democratic North Shore from the very Republican South Shore.  He has a large amount of bi-partisan appeal, needed to hold this seat.  In 2006 he was endorsed by both the Independence and Conservative Parties who had endorsed Rep. Fossella in the congressional race.  While Rep. Fossella won this Assembly District in his 2006 Congressional run, Cusick managed to get even more voters than Fossella in his down ballot race.

Rep. Anthony Weiner has publicly stated his support for Cusick and his desire that he run for this seat.  While Weiner’s seat is in Queens and not in this district he is considered a top tier mayoral candidate which may give his ‘endorsement’ additional weight and resources.

His previous boss was Sen. Schumer.  Schumer could provide access to his donors, although he offered very little to Harrison after his endorsement in 2006.

The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest.  As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.

Why he might not be the nominee

Cusick has been on everyone’s short list for at least the 2006 and 2008 congressional race yet has passed on both opportunities.  He has what appears to be a seat in the Assembly for as long as he wants it and would have to give that up if he ran for Congress in a general election.  

If he gives up his Assembly seat it will not be as easy for Democrats to hold as Savino’s senate seat or McMahon’s city council seat.  That said the Democrats hold a 2:1 advantage in the Assembly so this would be a minor loss for the state party.

He would start a congressional campaign with no money.

---

Sen. Diane Savino

Diane Savino is a State Senator representing the 23rd Sentate District covering the north shore of Staten Island as well as portions of Brooklyn including Borough Park, Coney Island, Bensonhurst, and Sunset Park. Her senate district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);

From her State Senate bio;

An active member of her local labor union, the Social Service Employees Union, Local 371, DC 37 of AFSCME, she quickly rose through the ranks to become the Vice President for Political Action & Legislative Affairs, where she became one of the most respected labor leaders in New York State.

Sen. Savino was first elected to State Senate in 2004 and won re-election in 2006.  She is up for re-election this November.

2004

Diane Savino (D, WFP): 63%

Al Curtis (R, I, C): 37%

2006

Diane Savino (D, I, WFP): 99%

no opponent

Why she could be the nominee

As noted above she has great ties to the labor community.  In 2004 the Democratic nominee Frank Barbaro was able to raise $187,000 of his $425,000 from union contributions.  She should be able to easily match Barbaro’s financial success.

Savino was an Executive Board member for Working Families Party.  WFP has been instrumental in providing very strong ground operations in two high profile State Senate  races, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine. I often noted before Fossella’s latest ethics problem that involvement by WFP would be critical in flipping this seat.  She has the strongest connection of any of the candidates to WFP.

The DCCC has been apparently dropping her name as someone of interest.  As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit her.

Why she might not be the nominee

A victory for Savino would put a state senate seat up for grabs in a year Democrats possibly are going to flip the Senate.  She also is co-chair of the New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and in charge of recruitment.  Certainly the New York State Party would not be supportive of her giving up this seat and she would give up all of her work towards reclaiming a majority.  

Diane has up until this point publicly supported Domenic Recchia.  Recchia would need to most likely drop out before Savino would enter.

She would start a congressional campaign with no money.

---

City Council Member Mike McMahon

Mike McMahon is a member of the New York City Council, representing the north shore of Staten Island including the neighborhoods of; Rosebank, Westerleigh, New Brighton, West Brighton, Mariners Harbor, Stapleton, St. George, Park Hill, Port Richmond, Clifton, Arlington, Grymes Hill and Dongan Hills.  His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);

McMahon was first elected in 2001, has won re-election in 2005 and will be term limited out of office in 2009.

2005

Mike McMahon (D, WFP, C): 70%

Jody Hall (R): 30%

Why he could be the nominee

McMahon chairs the Sanitation Committee which is extremely influential in Staten Island with its history as a waste transfer and landfill end point at Great Kills.  His leadership on the issue would be a strong campaigning point.

The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest.  As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.

The somewhat corresponding 60th Assembly District was carried by Harrison with 57% and Barbaro with 54%.  If McMahon could carry it with his 70% he could gain anywhere from 3,000-7,000 additional votes depending on turnout.  That could amount to a 2-3% increase based on 2006 results.  

Why he might not be the nominee

McMahon is a partner in the law firm of O’Leary, McMahon and Spero.  In his current role as a member of city council he is able to continue practicing law and earning income from his law firm.  He would have to give this up if he were elected to Congress.  The base city council salary is $112,000 whereas the base congressional salary is around $175,000.  This difference may be enough to allow him to give up the law firm and afford to raise a family in New York City.

His wife Judith Novellino McMahon is currently serving as a Civil Court judge and is running for the state Supreme Court in this fall.  Mike McMahon has indicated he intends to actively campaign for his wife which may be difficult if he is involved in a Congressional race.  The two also have two children.  The prospects of his wife obtaining a higher judicial role and him splitting time between DC and Staten Island may not be enticing for their family.

McMahon has often been mentioned as a likely candidate for the Staten Island Borough Presidency race in 2009.  This would allow him to stay home yet continue his political involvement in the district and is possibly more appealing than DC.

He would start a congressional campaign with no money.

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Should the Democratic side of this race go to a primary I do not foresee any reason why more than one of the above would jump, if any.  I have even outlined above why we may not see any of them enter the race at all.  All of them have previously passed on the opportunity for various reasons, so it would not be unrealistic to not see any of them get in this time.  If you want to place odds on them in terms of favorites, I believe they would come in the same order as in this post; Cusick, Savino then McMahon.  

I have covered Vito Fossella and the NY-13 Congressional race for three years at the NY13Blog.