Tag: Dina Titus

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Dina Titus (D): 47

Jon Porter (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±5%)

The numbers have bounced around quite a bit in this race in this swing district in the Las Vegas suburbs, ranging from a recent Mason-Dixon poll giving a 3-point edge to Porter to a Titus internal giving her a 9-point lead. Research 2000’s first poll of this race kind of splits the difference, finding Titus edging Porter by 2.

This is a district that has changed a lot in terms of registration numbers (moving from about even in ’06 to a 39,000 Dem edge now) and demographics, even since 2006 when Porter narrowly beat Harry Reid staffer Tessa Hafen and Titus narrowly won the district in her unsuccessful governor’s race. Also heartening are the early voting numbers: Titus is up 56-45 among early voters… and the presidential numbers, with Obama leading McCain in this D+1 district 48-44.

The Women’s Campaign Forum is running a pretty cool contest. They’re allowing members and supporters to decide the recipient of PAC contributions.  The first place candidate will receive a $3,000 PAC contribution and the second place candidate will receive a $1,500 PAC contribution.

Currently it’s pretty close, with Sam Bennett (PA-15)leading Vic Wulsin (OH-2).

Bennett: $10,451

Wulsin:  $7,814

The contest runs until October 7th.  We’ll see who can energize their online supporters more.  

You can vote at the following site:

http://www.democracyengine.com…

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

Last weekend, I was lucky enough to see the state of the race for myself. I traveled to the heart of Battleground Country. Because Nevada’s 5 electoral votes are up for grabs and two Nevada Republicans may lose their House seats this fall, I wanted to do something to help. That’s why I packed my bags, took some spare change for my favorite slot machines (NOT!), and made sure my family in Henderson had an extra bed for me to crash on.

I went to Vegas, baby, and I’m giving you the full report on what’s happening there!

Luckily for me, my cousin’s house is in the eye of the electoral storm. She lives in the 3rd Congressional District, the part of Nevada where Obama needs to win to carry the state… And the district where a Dina Titus win will give Democrats the majority in Nevada’s Congressional Delegation. So when I left my house on Friday, I was thrilled to go to a place where I can double the impact with the same amount of time!

When I arrived in town on Friday night, the Presidential Debate was just ending. I had listened on the radio while my friend Harriet and I were driving up the 15, and I was personally impressed by Obama’s performance. Still, I was anxious to find out what my moderate-conservative Republican cousin in Henderson thought about it. And to my surprise, she was also impressed!

Believe it or not, my Republican cousin will be voting for Democrat Barack Obama this fall. Why? Believe it or not, she may be upper middle-class… But she and her husband are still only a couple paychecks away from losing their home. Their house has now lost about $80,000 of its value while they still have to pay an “interest only mortgage” that’s now after the “interest only” period. They consider themselves blessed that they have a beautiful house in a great neighborhood just down the hill from the most exclusive estates in the Las Vegas Valley, but they still fear what would happen to them and their two kids if one of them were to have a health scare or lose a job. That’s why both my Republican cousin and her Democratic husband are voting for Obama.

And you know what? This isn’t an isolated case. In fact, I would find more of this the following two days when I strapped on my tennies and hit the pavement.

On Saturday morning, I regrouped with Harriet and joined with all the other California Obama volunteers who drove to Nevada for the weekend. Before we were sent off to knock doors, we were given the lay of the land. In just four years, Nevada has turned from a Republican plurality state into a state with 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans! In the 3rd District alone, Democrats now have a 29,000 voter registration edge! And now in previously GOP friendly Vegas suburbs like Henderson, voters are afraid of losing their jobs, losing their health care, losing their houses, and losing the middle-class American Dream they thought they had achieved. That’s why it was critical to get volunteers like us on the ground here to explain to voters what Democrats like  

Barack Obama and Dina Titus will do to help working people.

So that’s what we did over the next two days. We knocked doors. We talked to voters who still had doubts about Obama. We urged Obama voters to vote early. We reminded everyone not to forget Dina Titus and the state legislature candidates.

Oh yes, and we also listened. We listened as retirees told us about their health care worries. We listened as young people were telling us about their plans to finish college and get a real career. We listened to parents telling us about how they want to leave to their kids a better nation and a healthier planet. We listened to Democrats thrilled about a chance for us to make history (in a good way!). We also listened to Indpendents and Republicans, who have never voted for a Democrat before in their lifetimes, tell us that Barack Obama is the only candidate who they can trust with our nation’s future.

And believe it or not, I could count the number of McCain supporters we encountered on our walks with one hand. Even though we were mainly walking middle-class and upper middle-class neighborhoods in leafy (for the desert) suburban Henderson, hardly anyone on our lists turned out to be McCain supporters. This just goes to show how Southern Nevada’s changing and how much the people who live here are yearning for real change.

Now I know my experience in Las Vegas last weekend was only a snapshot of what’s really happening in Nevada right now. However, I must admit came back on Sunday feeling more confident of the Democratic operation in Nevada. We have a real chance of winning and winning BIG here… But only if we support our Democrats!

There’s plenty we can all do to help Democrats win this year. We can drive. We can walk. We can call. And yes, we can give. So please join us in helping in any way you can. The stakes are too high, and we can’t afford to lose this time. Let’s win, and let’s take our country back!

Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (9/21-24, likely voters, 7/23-28 in parens):

Dina Titus (D): 46 (43)

Jon Porter (R-inc): 37 (39)

Other: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

How much trouble is Jon Porter in? Well, just look at the favorable/unfavorable numbers. Titus posts a 50-37 popularity score, while Porter is less loved at 44-41 — his favorables down four and unfavorables up seven since July.

Back in June, Mason-Dixon released a poll showing Porter leading by a mere three points, but perhaps the most important number is this one: since 2006, Democrats have expanded their voter registration lead in Nevada’s 3rd CD from 2,900 voters to 25,445 in August.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: Porter’s own internal (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/23-24) shows him leading Titus by 41-39. Weak.

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

I know you’ve heard this. I have, too. “The battleground has moved West.” To a large extent, this is true. And while we probably will may plenty of attention to traditional swing states like Florida & Ohio this fall, we probably also will be spending much more time analyzing developments in places like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana.

But you know what? The Presidential Race isn’t the only interesting race out west. Let’s take a look at some extra goodies that we can look forward to.

Nevada is a critical state for Democrats this fall. First off, this state is a top target for Barack Obama to make the goal of at least 270 electoral votes. But in addition, we have two important Congressional races that can earn us two much needed seats as we expand our majority.

The 3rd Congressional District is one of the hottest races out West, if not the hottest. Dina Titus is running strong in a district where Democrats now outnumber Republicans. Both the Nevada Democratic Party and the Obama campaign are working hard here, and the key for them will be turning out all the newly registered Democrats while also winning over the swing voters that decide both Presidential elections and Congressional elections here in suburban Las Vegas. The Bush-McCain GOP incumbent Jon Porter is running scared, and we can tell. Dina Titus even has new ads on the air, and with our support she’ll have everything she needs to win.

The 2nd Congressional District may have been tradionally a Republican stronghold, but Jill Derby is changing that. The race is competitive, and the Bush-McCain GOP footsoldier Dean Heller is already throwing everything but the kitchen sink to maintain his edge. We have the power to hold Heller’s feet to the fire, and ultimately help Derby give Heller the boot.

Although Arizona may be John McCain’s home state, that isn’t stopping Democrats from competing hard here. And in addition to the Presidential race, we have a great candidate in Ann Kirkpatrick who looks to replace the corrupt (and retiring) GOPer Rick Renzi. Ann Kirkpatrick has worked hard for her community, has real Arizona values, and is running to bring about real change. This is one of our best chances at picking up a seat out west, so let’s take it!

We all know New Mexico is one of our top swing states that we can turn blue. But in addition to Obama’s victory, we can also send another Democrat to Congress! Martin Heinrich is running strong in this Albuquerque district… In fact, so strong that he’s now taken the lead in the latest independent poll! The voters now see that Republican Darren White is just another Bush-Cheney sycophant, and they’re ready for real change.

OK, so I know these aren’t all of the great races that we’re discovering out West. However, I hope that this gives you an idea of what’s really at stake. If we play our cards right, we may not only wind up with a President Obama next January, but also with more and better Democrats in Congress. But if we don’t stand up for our Democrats now, we can’t win.

So please, stand with us. If you live in any of these areas, help out with the campaign. And no matter where you are, support your party, your values, and your candidates. Are you ready to win? I am! 🙂

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

I’m so excited to kick off our new “C4O Spotlight” series today. As you all know by now, a Democratic victory isn’t complete without electing more & better Democrats to Congress. So in that spirit, I’d like to introduce you all to someone very special. Please meet our first C4O All-Star.

As I talked about last weekend, I still have fond memories of my trip to Las Vegas last January. My friends & I helped make a difference in getting Democrats out to caucus. I was able to see Hillary & Bill Clinton in person for the very first time. And yes, I was also able to witness Dina Titus in action.

Dina Titus has been dedicated to serving the people of Suburban Las Vegas in the twenty years she’s served in the Nevada State Senate, fifteen of those also working as the Senate Democratic Leader. She’s worked to preserve Southern Nevada natural treasures like Red Rock Canyon, expand health care access to working families in Nevada, and improve the schools that serve Nevada’s kids. Oh, and when she’s not in the Senate, she’s busy teaching American & Nevada government at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.

But while Dina Titus has been working hard for Nevada’s working people, Republican incumbent Jon Porter has been busy serving only himself. He’s been a rubber stamp for Bush & Cheney ever since he first took office. He’s used his taxpayer funded Congressional office to raise money for his campaign. He’s consistently voted against the interests of Southern Nevada’s working families if they get in the way of what his fat cat corporate donors want. Basically, Jon Porter is yet another dirty Republican who needs a different kind of job.

Fortunately for us & for Las Vegans, Dina Titus has a great shot at beating Porter. Titus beat Porter by 4 points in the first public poll released. DC political watchers now officially consider this race a toss-up. Democrats have come from behind to take the lead in voter registration. Oh yes, and Barack Obama’s agressive Nevada campaign is sure to fire up turnout that can not only turn Nevada blue for Obama, but help Congressional candidates like Dina Titus win as well.

Oh, and let’s not forget all the high-profile help Dina Titus is receiving from some great progressive allies! The Sierra Club has endorsed her because she’s someone we can trust to fight for what’s best for our people and our planet. EMILY’s List has endorsed her becuase she’ll work her hardest for all the hard working women in Southern Nevada. Dina Titus has even been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, which means that national Democrats are confident enough to invest in a victory here!

But you know what? Nonw of that matters if we don’t take action! I wouldn’t be here today if i didn’t think that Dina Titus deserves our

support. So please, please join us to take action and help Dina Titus & all our other great All-Star Democrats win. With real progressive fighters like Dina Titus in Congress, we can make a difference foe the better. So if you’re as committed to a better & stronger America as I am, please join me in helping great candidates like Dina Titus win. 🙂

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Sometimes, I still feel disappointed about this election. Sometimes, I keep asking myself “Where’s Hillary?” Sometimes, I become frightened at the thought of Democrats losing. Sometimes, I still wish I could see Hillary back on the campaign trail again.

Sometimes, I wonder what the hell I’m doing now. But you know what? I just can’t keep looking back. I can’t let Hillary down now.

After all that I did for Hillary, how can say no to her now? That’s what keeps me going. That’s what continues to prod me forward. That’s what keeps me pushing for Democrats.

Hillary has done so much for us. She proved to me that no one can hold us back. She taught us that yes, we can pursue our dreams. She showed us that with hard work and true grit, we can accomplish anything.

So why am I freaking out over a couple of lousy polls for Barack Obama? Why am I allowing the Rethuglican hacks to scare me into submission again? Why must I worry myself into complete depression when John McBush still can’t build up a lead? While this latest rough patch has taught me not to become to complacent in “likely victory”, there’s also no reason for me to commit suicide over this.

After all, Hillary keeps fighting for us… Even when all the pundits & DC insiders count her out. And if she can keep working for a Democratic victory this fall, so can I. If she can continue fighting, so can I.

There’s far too much at stake for us to lose. We desperately need a Democrat in the White House to right Bush’s wrongs. Oh yes, and we need a Democratic Congress to help President Obama do that.

When I was in Nevada this past January campaigning for Hillary, I had the time of my life. One of my best memories from that trip was seeing Hillary in person for the first time at a campaign event in the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson. I was amazed by her intelligence, her wit, her beauty, and her grace. But you know who also amazed me? I also remember seeing a state senator by the name of Dina Titus impress me with her breadth of knowledge on Nevada issues along with her warm, soulful personality. I was excited when I later found out that Dina Titus is now running for Congress, and I couldn’t help but to make sure I was of help to her.

When I was starring to become depressed about the state of the Presidetial Race in May, I found a new cause to enthusiastically jump into. Like Hillary, Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook is another strong woman who doesn’t stop fighting when the going gets tough. I’ve been able to witness her commitment to environmental justice here in Orange County, CA, and we’ll all be well served to have people like Debbie serve us in Congress. I’m sure that would make Hillary smile.

So this is why I keep fighting. This is why I keep working so damn hard for Democrats. I want to see more people like Hillary take office and fight for us. If she won’t ever give up on us, let’s not give up on her and the causes she believes in.

Let’s not give up now. Let’s keep fighting. We can stay strong. If Hillary can do it, so can we. 🙂

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Hello. I’m atdleft, someone you may know from Clintonistas for Obama or MyDD or The Liberal OC. I’m new to Swing State Project, so please don’t get too rough on me.

I just want to let you know that when we’re not obsessing over all things Presidential, my friends & I are looking for good Congressional candidates to support. We already have some idea of who looks good to us, but I’d like to hear from all of you on which candidates we should help out. Whild I’d love to be of use to everyone, I at least want to make sure I’m doing something for Democrats that: (a) can win & (b) will stick to good progressive values once elected.

Because I’m in the area and I’m already familiar with her, I’m all for Debbie Cook. She’s running against an extreme right-wing wacko incumbent, and she’s the first Democratic challenger since Loretta Sanchez (in 1996) who has a real chance of winning an Orange County, CA, House seat. I’m already doing whatever I can to help her win, and I encourage everyone else in the LA/OC area to do the same.

But what about everyone else living in other parts of the country? I feel terrible leaving them all out in the cold. That’s why I’m here today asking for suggestions.

So who should we love? Which candidates deserve our attention? Is Dina Titus the one who can finally upset Jon Porter in NV-03? Can Charlie Brown blow away GOP carpetbagger Tom McClintock in CA-04? Is the second time the charm for Darcy Burner (WA-08) & Christine Jennings (FL-13)? And can Jeff Merkley (OR-Sen), Tom Udall (NM-Sen), & Jeanne Shaheen (NH-Sen) help us expand our Senate majority?

So who should we love? Tell me now. If you make a good case, you might see big chances with this ActBlue page & some diaries from me promoting your favorite candidate(s). 😉

With only three and a half month left before election day, Nevada bloggers have joined forces and today announce the creation of the “Nevada Bloggers for Jill Derby and Dina Titus” ActBlue fundraising page.  

Dean Heller and Jon Porter were almost beaten in 2006 in what were the closest races the 2nd and 3rd Nevada Congressional Districts have seen to date. Considering that Democratic voter registration has significantly increased since 2006 and that Nevada will be a battleground state in the presidential contest both Jill Derby and Dina Titus have a big chance of beating the Republican incumbents this fall.

However, both have one disadvantage: they have significantly less cash-on-hand than the incumbents. While they both reported good fundraising numbers in the last quarter it will be hard to make up the time and incumbency advantages of Heller and Porter. Therefore, Jill Derby and Dina Titus need all the help they can get. Whether you can give $5,$20 or $100 – anything helps!

The following blogs have been and will continue to cover one or both of these contests and today we are announcing that we stand together to help elect Jill Derby and Dina Titus: Blue Sage Views, Desert Beacon, Helluva Heller, My Silver State, Nor’Town, Nye – Gateway to Nevada’s Rurals, Reno and Its Discontent, and Vote Gibbons Out.

We support Jill Derby and Dina Titus for Congress! Help us in our effort!

Cross posted from My Silver State.

Remember 2004? When the incumbent Senate Democratic Leader was beaten when he was running for reelection in South Dakota? The first time the Republican  Senate Leader Bill Frist broke one of those so called DC “gentlemen’s agreeements” of not actively campaigning against the leader of the other party?

You want that to happen again in 2010?

No? Then follow me below the fold to see what you can do NOW to stop the Republicans from beating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010!

Why help Harry Reid now:

The Republican party in Nevada is as much in dire straits as the national party. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t put up a fight to defeat Harry Reid in 2010. Harry Reid once survived a very close race after against now Sen. John Ensign only after a recount (1998). In 2004 he won by a more than comfortable margin. However, that was before he was elected the leader of Senate Democrats. Because of his new leadership role his approval ratings in Nevada have suffered and Nevada Republicans have no greater goal but to topple Harry Reid in 2010.

Now, this is not about whether you like Harry Reid and his actions as the Senate Majority Leader. I’ve personally been very critical of him on several occasions. No, this is about whether you want the Republicans to once again take out the Democratic Leader in the Senate. And Republicans, in Nevada and nationally, will be itching for a fight in 2010 if they lose the White House and more seats in the Senate and the House. And who will be the most prominent target in 2010? Harry Reid.

Potential opponents:

Republicans already suffered pretty badly in 2006 when they lost four out of the six statewide constitutional offices. The only statewide incumbents right now are Gov. Jim Gibbons who is scandal plagued and currently divorcing his wife who has barrickaded herself in the Governor’s mansion. He’s lucky if he won’t either have to resign before 2010 or be primaried.

The other is Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki who seems to be more likely to succeed Gibbons than Reid.

The other top Republicans in the state are Sen. John Ensign who obviously can’t run against Reid and Congressmen Dean Heller (CD2) and Jon Porter (CD3). In 2006 Dean Heller barely managed to get above 50% in this open seat against Democrat Jill Derby. Porter barely won his reelection campaign in 2006 against Democrat Tessa Hafen. Hafen was a Reid staffer who received major financial backing from Reid. A sign that Reid thought Porter to be his strongest and most likely opponent in a future Senate race.

Once you’re done with the most obvious opponents, you have to search in the State Legislature or the local level to find a possible opponent for Reid. You might find one, whether it would be a strong and credible one is highly questionable as the Democrats are only one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Assembly and just one seat away from getting the majority in the State Senate.

So, the two most likely opponents for Harry Reid are Congressmen Jon Porter and Dean Heller (in that order).

What you can do now:

In one sentence: help defeat Porter and Heller this fall.

Both are vulnerable. Currently, CQ rates CD 2 as Republican Favored and CD 3 as Leans Republican. However, that’s mostly on the basis of the Republicans current financial advantage. After serving as Nevada Democratic State Party Chair for the past year and preparing the state for the caucus in January, Jill Derby announced another run against Heller in late February. By the end of the first quarter filing deadline she had raised $144,000.

In CD 3 a lot of Democrats were mentioned as possible challengers last year. In the end Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas was the candidate backed by most in the Democratic Party. He was added to the DCCC’d red to blue list in March. However, everyone was shocked when Daskas dropped out this month just two weeks before the filing deadline. Local Democrats, the DCCC and Daskas’ primary opponent Andrew Martin soon rallied around Senate Minority Leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. However, six months before the election Titus is at a serious fundraising disatvantage.



Why Jill Derby and Dina Titus can win:

So, both of our candidates are way behind in fundraising. Why, then, can they still win?

Jill Derby ran a hotly contested race in 2006 for a seat that Democrats have not seriously contested since Gov. Jim Gibbons first ran in 1996. While everyone pronounced this seat unwinable for any Democrat, Jill Derby ran a strong campaign and won 45% of the vote and kept Heller at 50%. One reason, Gibbons was even a serious contender for Governor and eventually won in 2006 is that Democrats never seriously contested his seat after his first election in 1996.

Two years later, the situation for Jill Derby is much better. She has new DC and national connections due to her time as State party chair during the caucus (which will help with fundraising), the caucus led to an increase in registered Democratic voters and Heller now has to run on his two year Bush rubber stamp record. The race has gained attention from national Democrats as Derby was endorsed by the Blue Dogs in Congress. Yes, I know, none of us are two fond of the Blue Dogs. That said, I’m happy about any help Jill Derby will get and this is after all still a pretty conservative district. When Derby talks about joining the Blue Dogs in Congress, she’s mostly talking about fiscal conservatism. Yet, she’s progressive on other issues, announcing her campaign at a green architecture form, has made health care and supporting SCHIP one of her main campaign themes (Heller voted against SCHIP). Also, her campaign will be managed by the former head of Americans Against the Escalation in Iraq in Nevada. Subsequently, she also endorsed the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq.

As for Dina Titus, she has actually already won in CD 3. In 2006 she won here by two points against Jim Gibbons in her run for Governor. Additionally, the district is trending Democratic as the registration advantage now is at 43% Dem, 37% Rep. Plus, Porter only won by 4,000 votes in 2006.

All Jill Derby and Dina Titus need now is the money to be competitive.

You can do three good deeds today:

You can help two great Democratic women get elected to Congress.

And you can help beat two possible opponents of Harry Reid.

All you need to do is give as much or little as you can and contribute through the My Silver State ActBlue page.

Links:

Jill Derby for Congress

Dina Titus for Congress

Helluva Heller – local blog with more information.

Mcjoan on Jill Derby in 2006.