Tag: AK-Sen

I keep pinching myself over and over, but a new poll reported by the subsciption-only Roll Call has Mark Begich opening a huge lead over Ted Stevens while “Tubes” maintains a strong lead in the primary.

Indicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) has dropped far behind in the general election but maintains his lead in this month’s primary, according to polling data from both before and after the Alaska legend was indicted on seven felony counts earlier this week.

The Ivan Moore Research poll taken July 30-31 showed Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leading Stevens, 56 percent to 35 percent, with more than 5 percent undecided.

A survey by the same pollster from July 18-22 – before the indictments were handed down – showed Begich leading Stevens, 51 percent to 43 percent.

The earlier poll had a sample size of 504 registered voters statewide and a margin of error of 4.4 points. The later survey, taken just over a day after news of Stevens’ indictments broke, polled 413 registered voters with a 4.8-point margin of error.

The poll also showed an 11-point drop in Stevens’ approval rating: From the first survey to the second survey, the percentage of people who had a positive impression of Stevens decreased from 55 percent to 44 percent.

Though Stevens faces six opponents in the Aug. 26 Republican primary, the poll showed him with a handsome lead over businessman Dave Cuddy, his chief competition. In the same July 30-31 survey, which polled 219 Republicans about the primary, Stevens scored 59 percent and Cuddy had 19 percent with about 20 percent undecided.

What can I say other than that we are watching our best-case scenario playing out right before our eyes.

After a quiet July, we’re back in the thick of primary season in August.

August 5

GA-Sen (Runoff): When we last checked in, the primary for the Democratic nomination for the Georgia Senate race had gone to a runoff, with none of the five candidates clearing 50% in the July 15 primary. Bush-enabling DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones led the field with 41%; ex-State Rep. Jim Martin came in second with 34%. This makes it look like Jones has the edge, but Martin has a good shot at consolidating the anti-Jones votes that were dispersed among the four white candidates. A late June poll shows Martin with a much better shot at beating Saxby Chambliss in the general than Jones has.

KS-02: Nancy Boyda, who won an upset victory in this R+7 district in 2006, has had to sit and wait while Jim Ryun, the former Representative that she beat, and Lynn Jenkins, the Kansas State Treasurer, beat the snot out of each other in the primary. (Ryun was one of the most conservative members of the House; Jenkins is considered a moderate, at least by Kansas standards.) Ryun and Jenkins have raised a fair amount of money, but have had to spend it on each other, and an internal poll from June gives Boyda a sizable edge over each one. Still, this is a Lean D race and Boyda is widely regarded as one of our most endangered incumbents.

MI-13: Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in a three-way fight with ex-State Rep. Mary Waters and State Sen. Martha Scott in the Democratic primary. She’s a long-time incumbent, but scandal involving her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, is dragging her down, and a poll this week shows her in the lead but only with 33% of the vote.

MO-Gov: Representative Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman are vying for the Republican nomination to succeed Governor Matt Blunt, retiring at the ripe old age of 37 in the face of massive unpopularity. Polling gives the edge to Hulshof in the primary, but either one of them looks like a speed bump in the road for four-term Attorney General Jay Nixon, making this the Dems’ likelist state house pick-up.

MO-09: Kenny Hulshof is leaving behind this open seat in his quest to become Governor, giving the Dems a good shot at picking up this R+7 seat (represented by conservative Dem Harold Volkmer before Hulshof). There are competitive primaries in both parties. On the GOP side, most of the action is between State Rep. Bob Onder and State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer. (Although the presence of ex-football star Brock Olivo keeps things lively.) Onder is backed by the Club for Growth, Luetkemeyer is backed by Missouri Right to Life, and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch couldn’t bring itself to endorse either of them.

On the Dem side, the leading contenders are State Rep. Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw. Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode and ex-State Sen. Ken Jacob are also viable candidates. Baker (from the university town of Columbia) seems about as liberal as is viable in this district, Gaw is a bit to her right (although he did come out strongly against retroactive immunity) while the others are pretty Blue Doggish. Baker, who was running before Hulshof dropped out, leads the money chase. In absence of any polls, though, the race on both sides is a big question mark.

August 7

TN-09: Representative Steve Cohen, who picked up Harold Ford’s old Memphis-based seat in 2006, is being challenged by another one of the 2006 contenders, Nikki Tinker. Regrettably, this race has been defined by identity politics: race, gender, and religion, rather than ideology (which is important, as Cohen, the white guy, is quite progressive, while Tinker, the African-American woman, is running to his right). The district’s 60% African-American composition gives an advantage to Tinker, but internal polling in May gave a huge edge to Cohen. At D+18, it’s safe for the Dems in the general.

TN-01, TN-07: Two members of Tennessee’s wingnut patrol face primary challenges from other wingnuts hoping to capitalize on discontent within the wingnut base. In TN-01, freshman Rep. David Davis (who won the last primary with 22% of the vote) faces a rematch with 2006 contender Johnson City mayor Phil Roe. And in TN-07, Marsha Blackburn is up against Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood, who released an internal poll showing him within striking distance. These races don’t seem to be about much other than “my turn,” and Dems aren’t in a place to capitalize in these deep-red districts (R+14 and R+12), but they’re worth keeping an eye on.

August 12

CO-02: In this safe Dem (D+8) district based in Boulder, there’s a heated race to replace soon-to-be-Senator Mark Udall. State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Board of Education chairman and Internet entrepreneur Jared Polis, and Colorado Conservation Trust executive director Will Shafroth are all strong candidates. Conventional wisdom seems to mostly focus on Fitz-Gerald and the self-funding Polis, but Shafroth has picked up the major newspaper endorsements. Polis may be a smidge to the left of the other candidates (he’s openly gay and a Responsible Plan endorser).

CO-05: Doug Lamborn is another freshman wingnut who ruffled a lot of feathers in his first election (to the extent that his predecessor, Joel Hefley, refused to endorse him). He faces off against two of his 2006 challengers, former Hefley aide Jeff Crank and ex-AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn. Crank and Rayburn originally entered into a gentlemen’s agreement where one would drop out based on polling to avoid splitting the anti-Lamborn vote, but that agreement collapsed, leaving Crank and Rayburn attacking each other instead. It’s probably all for naught anyway, as their joint internal poll gives a big edge to Lamborn. Whoever wins has a big edge against Dem Hal Bidlack in this R+16 district.

CO-06: There’s a crowded field of Republicans trying to pick up where the retiring Tom Tancredo leaves off. Mike Coffman, the Colorado Secretary of State, seems to be slight front runner against businessman (and son of long-ago Senator Bill Armstrong) Wil Armstrong, according to Armstrong’s internal polling. Armstrong, despite not having held office, boasts some key endorsements, including retiring Sen. Wayne Allard and Mitt Romney. Two state senators, Ted Harvey and Steve Ward, are also vying for the seat. Local activist Steve Collins will represent the Dems in the general in this R+10 district.

Look for the 8-19 primaries in Washington and Wyoming, and the 8-26 primaries in Alaska and Florida, in Part II.

Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell emerges from his hidey hole to announce that he won’t be switching from the state’s at-large House race to make a run for the Senate:

Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) has no intention of running for Senate – and he doesn’t expect his boss, Gov. Sarah Palin (R), to run in place of Sen. Ted Stevens (R), who has been indicted on seven counts and is awaiting trial.

“From my perspective, [a Senate bid is] not something that I’m considering, nor would I consider,” Parnell said in a phone interview Thursday afternoon.

Of course, as Crisitunity explained, the only way that Parnell would be able to run for Senate is if Stevens wins the primary and then drops out (or is disqualified by being convicted, which is not likely to happen this soon) 48 days or more before the general election. Nah gonna happen.

Rasmussen (7/30, likely voters, 7/17 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 50 (50)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 37 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

In a testament to Stevens’ legacy in the state, 50% of voters still have a favorable opinion of the senator, and only 33% want him to resign. Still, his negatives, at 47%, are almost as high, and voters seem ready to turn the page.

So what would happen if Ted Stevens lost his primary? Rasmussen polls that scenario, too:

Mark Begich (D): 50

Dave Cuddy (R): 35

Mark Begich (D): 55

Vic Vickers (R): 22

Cuddy, a former state representative who spent a considerable sum of his own resources on a 1996 primary challenge of Ted Stevens, has more residual name recognition and would be a stronger opponent than Vickers (a recent transplant from Florida). It appears that he would not exactly be a formidable opponent for Begich in the general election, although a full 30% of voters have no opinion of him, possibly leaving Cuddy with some room for growth.

The crosstabs have some more interesting numbers, including 44% who say that Stevens’ indictment makes them less likely to vote for GOP Rep. Don Young this fall. 41% say that it has no impact.

Also interesting, in the wake of “troopergate“: Gov. Sarah Palin’s approval rating is 64-36. Very high, but not quite as astronomical as it was in months past.

In the wake of Ted Stevens’ indictment on seven felony counts today, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Leans Republican” to a “Tossup“.

Of all the races on our Lean R list, Alaska (along with Mississippi) was always the most ripe for moving to tossup, and Stevens’ indictment was more than enough dynamite to erase many of the advantages of his 40 years of incumbency.

While it might be tempting to shift this race into the Democratic column, our move to tossup reflects the extremely unsettled nature of this race as things stand today. Stevens may or may not survive his primary; even if he does, he could legally be replaced. He could even choose to resign before then, although Uncle Ted does not seem to be the sort of fallen pol who’s willing to slink off quietly into the night.

And while it does certainly feel as though Mark Begich has just been given an important boost, we feel it’s important to have more information in front of us before we make any further changes.

UPDATE: AK Gov. Sarah Palin says she is not interested in replacing Stevens.

Based on today’s news of Ted Steven’s indictment and the current GOP field. Congressional Quarterly has changed their rating of the race to “Lean Dem.”

The Democrats’ recruit to take on Stevens, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, found himself on even stronger footing July 29 when Stevens was indicted for allegedly concealing benefits he received from employees of Veco Corp., an Alaskan oil services company. Stevens, 84, who has served in office longer than any GOP senator in history, faced generally easy re-election contests throughout more than six terms in office, but his connection to the Veco Corp. scandal has left him with little hope of regaining his stature in the state prior to this year’s elections. The primary is August 26, and other Republican contenders include David Cuddy, a wealthy real estate developer who lost to Stevens in the 1996 GOP primary after spending more than $1 million in personal funds, and five lesser-known candidates including Republican minister Gerald L. Heikes.

I tend to agree. The GOP brand is now mud in Alaska. Gov. Palin has a 6 month child with Down’s syndrome and is not likely going to want to commute between Alaska and DC. Lt. Gov. has committed himself to the House race. And surprisingly the Republican bench in the state is very weak, as though they expected Stevens and Young to rule forever. Vic Vickers and Dave Cuddy each have a lot of money and could just as easily spend it against each other as spend it against Stevens. Would I prefer to run against Stevens? Yes. But regardless, Mark Begich now runs with a leg up in the race.

From the MSNBC ticker:

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens indicted on criminal charges, U.S. officials say

Whoa. More as we get it.

Update: Reuters says that Stevens is being hit with seven counts; CNN reports that the seven counts are all related to false statements made to investigators. The New York Times clears it up:

Mr. Stevens, 84, was indicted on seven counts of falsely reporting income. The charges are related to renovations on his home and to gifts he has received. They arise from an investigation that has been under way for more than a year, in connection with the senator’s relationship with a businessman who oversaw the home-remodeling project.

Update II: Some have asked if Ted Stevens is in danger of losing his primary. He has five opponents in that race (the filing deadline was on June 2nd), none of them formidable. It’s important to note that Vic Vickers, who plans to spend $750K of his own cash against Stevens, is a total carpetbagger who just moved to Alaska from Florida in January. If he pulls off a miracle and beats Stevens in the primary, I like Begich’s chances against him. In fact, I like Begich’s chances against anyone the GOP nominates here, unless perhaps Sarah Palin (who has her own problems) pulls a switcheroo — and even then, I doubt that Stevens would let her. He’s a stubborn sumbitch with a big ego; would he really want to step down?

The most immediate takeaway I have from this is that Don Young is now absolutely doomed in his primary against Sean Parnell; the anti-incumbent sentiment will be running high next month, and I doubt that even vote-splitting with Gabrielle LeDoux could save Young’s hide. I still think Berkowitz would have a solid shot at the seat. These scandals are tainting not only Young and Stevens, but the GOP brand itself in Alaska. Sean Parnell is a blank page with no real accomplishments of his own, and he’s weakened in recent weeks due to Palin’s abuse of power kerfuffle and his desire to hide from cover rather than face voters.

Here’s some fun news:

Attorney Vic Vickers said Monday that he has placed a $410,000 statewide network ad buy blasting Stevens that will start Wednesday and run through the Aug. 26 primary.

“I bought everything that was available,” Vickers said in a phone interview.

The first of five advertisements, according to Vickers, shows him standing in front of Stevens’ Girdwood home, which was raided by the FBI last year.

“I am Vic Vickers and I am running against Ted Stevens to stop corruption,” he says in the spot. “The FBI and the IRS raided his home as part of a criminal investigation.”

Vickers, a complete unknown who filed for the race “30 minutes before the deadline in June”, is also planning on spending an additional $100,000 on radio ads in the coming weeks.

Vickers is one of five candidates challenging Stevens in the Republican primary. The field also includes ex-state Rep. Dave Cuddy, a wealthy businessman who previously challenged Stevens for the GOP nomination in 1996. While I don’t expect Stevens to lose his primary, this one should be fun to watch.

Don’t you just love it when Republicans do the dirty work for us?

Primary: August 26th

Two years ago on daily Kos, I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.  

They’re BAAAAACK, and this time, I’m cross posting them here!

Method:

 1.  I gathered polling data from Pollster.com.  I only included polls in 2008.

 2.  I assigned the undecided in two ways: 75% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50.  The first method is represented by solid boxes.  The latter method by hollow dots.

 3.  I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots.  Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here  (technical notes on local regression)

Now, pollster.com has its own charts, and there’s nothing wrong with them.  I like mine better.  First, they have more information. I show different outcomes with different divisions of the undecided.  Second, I like my smooths better.  Third, I assign the undecideds, making things a little less choppy.  

On to the first two races:

Alaska:

If we assume that the undecideds break evenly (dotted lines) then Begich is up by about 5.  If we assume they favor the incumbent (seems unlikely in Alaska) then Stevens and Begich are tied.

Colorado:

If we assume that the undecideds break evenly (dotted lines) then Udall is up by about 11; if we assume they break in favor of the Republicans (as incumbents) then Udall is up by about 5

Some notes:

 1.   For any poll and for either method, the percentages add to 100.  

 2.  If the hollow box is far from the solid box, then there are a lot of undecideds.

Rasmussen (7/17, likely voters, 6/16 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 50 (44)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 41 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

When leaners are included, Begich leads by 52-44. This is the biggest lead that Begich has held in any of Rasmussen’s polls of this race, and not quite in line with the most recent DailyKos/R2K poll that had Begich up by two points. We could be looking at an ad blitz bump for Begich, or this might be something of an outlier from what has been a very close race so far.

The SSP crew (and other bloggers) got the chance to meet with Begich at Netroots Nation, and I have to say that I was very impressed with his style, knowledge, and sense of humor. While this race will be very challenging as Stevens reminds voters of his four decades of public service this fall, we couldn’t have asked for a better candidate to take him on.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-40 in the state, and by 49-44 when leaners are included. Spectacular numbers.