Tag: CO-Sen

The sole Republican holding statewide office in Colorado, Attorney General John Suthers, announced today that he won’t run against newly-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet — and he won’t take a crack against Gov. Bill Ritter, either:

“I realize the decision I’ve made will be disappointing to many Republicans and friends and acquaintances of mine that wanted me to run for Governor or for the United States Senate in 2010 and that it may be disappointing to many Democrats who thought I’d be easy prey if I did,” he said. “But I hope everyone will understand that such decisions have to be made on the basis of very personal values and beliefs. I must ultimately be directed by my inner compass.”

In other good news for Bennet, ex-Rep. Scott McInnis has also told the Denver Post that he won’t run for Senate, though he’s seriously considering making a run against Ritter. Former US Attorney Troy Eid is now pondering a Senate run, though he would have to be considered a significant downgrade from Suthers.

From the Rocky Mountain News:

Denver Public Schools superintendent Michael Bennet is expected to be named Saturday as the future U.S. Senate replacement for Interior Secretary nominee Ken Salazar, according to two Democratic sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The Denver Post also confirms it:

After an array of candidates put their names forward for selection, the choice came down to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper or Bennet, Hickenlooper’s former chief of staff. After spending a long holiday weekend in the mountains last week, Ritter began to focus on Bennet. The two men then discussed the choice on New Year’s Day and the pick was solidified, according to sources close to the process.

I would have liked Hickenlooper a great deal for this gig, but Bennet may turn out to be a fine choice, as well — I’m too unfamiliar with his record and ideology to tell at this point.

Update: For more on Bennet, check out this New Yorker profile from 2007.

Later Update: ColoradoPols has an excellent round-up of local reactions to the surprise pick.

Denver Post:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper on Monday confirmed that he is interested in Colorado’s looming U.S. Senate vacancy.

In a brief interview, Hickenlooper touted his experience as a business owner and his time as mayor as pluses for Gov. Bill Ritter to consider when weighing whom he should appoint to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, who has been nominated for secretary of the Interior Department.

Ritter will appoint the person to serve out the remainder of Salazar’s term. An election would be held in 2010.

“I love my job,” Hickenlooper said. “I’m in that unique position in that I’ve got one of the best jobs that a person like me can have. But if you take someone like me who has spent most of his life in business and then at some point decides to give 10 to 15 years to public service, and you want to be useful, then you want to get the maximum benefit out of that public service.”

The mayor said he had one “formal discussion” with Ritter about the Senate appointment but declined to go into details.

This is a move I could get behind. Not only does the early polling look favorable for Hickenlooper, he got his start in the business world by opening a brew pub. Now there’s a guy I’d like to have a beer with!

This is pretty interesting: Public Policy Polling takes a look at two potential Senate appointees, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and 3rd CD Rep. John Salazar, and finds that Hickenlooper would start in a stronger position against two potential GOP foes (12/16-17, registered voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 54

Bill Owens (R): 40

John Hickenlooper (D): 54

Tom Tancredo (R): 37

John Salazar (D): 52

Bill Owens (R): 43

John Salazar (D): 53

Tom Tancredo (R): 40

(MoE: ±3.7%)

In other state news, Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter just named ex-state Rep. Bernie Buescher as the state’s new SoS, meaning that outgoing state House speaker Andrew Romanoff’s is still on the table for the Senate job. Also possibly in the mix: former state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, who has contacted Ritter recently to express her interest in the appointment.

Apparently, it’s confirmed:

A transition official for President-elect Barack Obama says Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar will be named Interior Secretary later this week.

The appointment will round out Obama’s environment and energy team. He unveiled most of the team on Monday. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid pre-empting Obama’s upcoming announcement.

This aide did just pre-empt Obama’s announcement – the only thing anonymity does is possibly protect his or her sorry ass (unless this was one of those “intentional” leaks directed from on high). Whatever. I’ve already gone on record saying I’m not thrilled with this choice – I would have much preferred Rep. Raul Grijalva – but that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of SSP.

Gov. Bill Ritter, a Dem, gets to pick Salazar’s replacement. The seat, which was up in 2010 anyway, might now see see a more competitive race than it otherwise would have, especially if Ritter picks a caretaker. Who do you like to replace Salazar, and who might face off against his replacement in two years?

UPDATE: Some names supposedly in circulation, according to the Denver Post:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper

Rep. John Salazar

Rep. Ed Perlmutter

Rep. Diana DeGette

Denver Public Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet

Outgoing state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff

Former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland

It seems like Barack Obama is determined to have a Salazar in his Cabinet. From the Denver Post:

U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar is a leading contender to become President-elect Barack Obama’s secretary of the Interior, two sources have confirmed.

Reuters News Service used even stronger language in a report Sunday, saying Salazar had become the top candidate for the job. […]

A source close to Obama’s transition team told The Denver Post late last week that Salazar was under consideration for the Cabinet position.

The source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak, said at the time it appeared that it was all but up to Salazar as to whether he wanted the post.

A second source close to the process also confirmed Sunday that Sala zar was a leading contender. The senator’s spokesmen did not return telephone messages seeking comment.

A vacancy here would be filled by an appointment from Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter, but would also add another race to the growing list of 2010 Senate contests. (Oh right, his term was up anyway.) If Ken Salazar indeed gets the gig, who would you like to see take his place in the Senate?

Update: In the diaries, Adam Kretz gives us a lengthy list of possible Salazar successors.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Robin Carnahan (D): 43

Christopher Bond (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

The Great Orange Satan has started polling potential matchups for 2010, and as suspected, one potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent is Kit Bond in Missouri. Matched against possible candidate Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (member of Missouri’s preeminent political family), 22-year incumbent Bond leads by only 4 points.

Bond’s favorables are just under the 50% mark at 49/43, while the less-known Carnahan clocks in at 48/26 with 26% having no opinion, giving her a lot of room for growth. Interestingly, the only region of the state where Carnahan currently leads is the city of St. Louis; if (like Claire McCaskill in 2006) she can maintain usual Democratic margins in the urban parts of the state while holding down losses in the state’s big red middle, she can eke out the victory.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 49

John Elway (R): 38

(MoE: ±4%)

Ken Salazar (D-inc): 51

Tom Tancredo (R): 37

Research 2000 also released the first set of polls for the 2010 senate race in Colorado (diaried yesterday by safi), which at least has the potential of being the Democrats’ top vulnerability. However, Ken Salazar is looking pretty safe against two top GOP contenders. One of those contenders is polarizing bigot Tom Tancredo, whom you wouldn’t expect to get much traction, but the other one is former Broncos QB (and car dealer) John Elway, a popular if not legendary figure in Colorado. But apparently he’s lacking in the political skills department, if he’s barely running ahead of the loathsome Tancredo (and he certainly can’t blame lack of name recognition).

Former GOP Gov. Bill Owens is sometimes mentioned as a candidate, although he hasn’t taken any steps in that direction. He ended his term fairly popular and would probably fare better than either of these clowns, so it would be interesting to see a head-to-head with him included.

Research 2000 did a poll for Kos looking at some possible match-ups in the 2010 Senate race

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

It showed Salazar leading outgoing Congressman Tom Tancredo 51-37 and former NFL great John Elway 49-38.

The poll also showed some pretty mediocre approval ratings for Salazar at 48-41.

I didn’t need a poll to tell me that Tom Tancredo is not electable statewide in a state Barack Obama carried.

I have no idea why they measured Tancredo instead of former Gov. Bill Owens. As I’ve read numerous 2010 previews that say Owens is the GOP’s only real shot at this seat.

I think what we can ascertain from this poll is that Salazar is not safe. But without some external factors and a top flight recruit he should be okay.

This is it.  It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups.  Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.

3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits.  The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.

4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch.  She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape.  Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.

5. Alaska (8): Conviction!  84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday.  Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead.  Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess.  Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.

6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  So what do you do if you’re Dole?  Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”.  That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.

7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month.  Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead.  Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.

8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading.  But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.

9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  However, they all still show Martin trailing.  Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.

10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.

11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently.  As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Idaho (Jim Risch)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Maine (Susan Collins)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Nebraska (Mike Johanns)

Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Texas (John Cornyn)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go.  We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

The NRSC has pulled out. The DSCC has pulled out. The Dem has had an unassailable and growing lead in the polls. Recriminations have already begun on the GOP side. And Barack Obama is running away with the state.

In short, Mark Udall is in a commanding position to win this race. An upset by Bob Schaffer at this late date is a remote possibility at best. Therefore, we’re changing our rating on this race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.

For your enjoyment, we will also once again present the leaked internal Republican strategy video for the state of Colorado: