Tag: NE-Sen

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

The timetable hasn’t really changed for any of our candidates. Though the Presidential race is sort of altering our idea of when the race is going to get started, it’s worth remembering that none of our candidates in Nebraska got into the race until late summer 2005 for the 2006 cycle.

The Republicans are eager to get started. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub was giving interviews to every single local TV station yesterday. Jon Bruning wasn’t very subtle about his intentions should Hagel retire, either.

Mike Fahey had the most realistic outlook:

Mayor Mike Fahey, a Democrat, said it was too early to start the Senate race. He said it would be a good thing if Hagel’s decision to postpone an announcement shortened the race.

“These campaigns last too long the way they are,” said Fahey, who is being courted by national Democrats to run for the Senate in the event Hagel bows out.

Examining the facts, it’s hard to see Hagel’s non-announcement announcement yesterday as anything but a stall tactic. The reasoning behind it is beyond comprehension at this point (though I suspect, between a hundred some supporters on a conference call yesterday, someone will leak the information). But two specific things point to a Presidential run:

– Hagel’s appearance at an IAFF forum tomorrow.
– Hagel’s new website http://www.hagel.tv – which features a vaguely presidential campaign ad. Remember, we’re still 14 months away from the primary election for Senate.

Here’s my take:

As much as we’re growing impatient with Hagel for not making up his mind, it’s important to realize that the timetable for a Senate campaign is a lot different than the accelerated timetable for this Presidential race. Delaying until the fall isn’t going to alter Mike Fahey’s plans one iota. He likely wouldn’t announce his intentions to run for Senate until the fall, anyway. We all know Fahey can raise the money. Everyone’s assuming Jon Bruning’s going to run. Hal Daub all but said the words “I’m running for Senate” in several television interviews in the past week. But after the hell that was the 2006 Senate race, do we really want to subject the people of Nebraska to all of that again so soon, especially if Pete Ricketts gets back in the mix?

I’m convinced that Fahey’s going to run for Senate if it’s an open seat. If it doesn’t turn out that way, then we’ll have to work a lot harder, but Ryan at the New Nebraska Network had a great point:

What this proves to me is we can’t afford to be spectators any more. The Nebraska blogosphere has served as a vigilant watchdog of Chuck Hagel’s record. That’s all fine and dandy, but there comes a day when every public official must answer those critics and defend that record and for Senator Hagel, that day is Election Day, 2008. If we aren’t committed to making that a contest, we can’t pretend to be serious about building a “new Nebraska”.

Our candidates are going to operate on their own timetables, and the best we can do right now is encourage them to run. But the grassroots will be operating in other ways in Nebraska – from local elections to Young Democrats and many other places in between – until the time comes. We’ll continue to keep you posted on any developments, of course.

Since I have an exam in the morning, I won’t be able to liveblog Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel’s 10 AM Central news conference on his “future plans”.  Instead, I’ll leave this up as an open thread where you can discuss and dissect his announcement as it happens.  The New York Times boils down the possibilites to three:

It’s another cryptic announcement from Mr. Hagel, whose options include:

A.) Throwing his hat into the ring for the Republican presidential nomination.
B.) Announcing his plans to seek reelection to the Senate in 2008.
C.) Stepping down from politics when his second term expires next year.

To which I would add: D.) Both A and B.  Of course, since Hagel resolutely promised us that “twelve years in Congress is enough for anyone” back in ’96, surely the former won’t be his course of action.  After all, Chuck Hagel is integrity personified, right?  Stay tuned.

The DSCC and the speculative (and conditional) Democratic nominee, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey must be waiting with baited breath to find out whether Nebraska will have an open Senate race next year.  I’d keep UNO Democrats and the New Nebraska Network bookmarked for front row seats.

Update: Chuck Hagel joins Thad Cochran (R-MS) and John Warner (R-VA) in the ranks of indecisive and coy Senators up for re-election in 2008.  How disappointing.

(Should Hagel decide to run for President, this would be a map-changing event for Senate Democrats’ 2008 battle plans. For months, I’ve assumed that Hagel was disinclined to run for President, but perhaps he sees an opening for a solid conservative challenger to the Romney/McCain/Giuliani triangle that’s been giving grief to so many conservative activists. We’re just reading tea leaves here, for now. – promoted by James L.)

Originally posted at UNO Democrats

[The rumors are flying fast now in Nebraska, and it seems like in the next couple of weeks we’re going to see some real movement on Hagel’s plans. I thought I’d repost this here to pass along the info for all of you – Dave.]

OWH:

  WASHINGTON – For a guy who hasn’t announced a presidential bid, Sen. Chuck Hagel’s schedule next week looks a lot like that of a candidate.

  He’s slated to appear with nine declared presidential hopefuls – including John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama – before a national firefighters’ group.

  He’s meeting with his political action committee’s steering committee. He’s scheduled to attend a Nebraska GOP fund-raiser in Washington.

  And speculation was running high among key Nebraska Republicans that Hagel might announce something Monday.

Follow the money, they say. If Hagel is indeed gearing up for a run, he’s got to start raising money and fast. So, this item from the same World-Herald article is noteworthy:

  The day before that speech, Hagel is expected to attend a Nebraska Republican Party fund-raiser in Washington. Then, on Thursday, he’s to sit down with the steering committee of his Sandhills PAC.

  For months, Hagel’s fundraising had been all but dormant. But he held two fundraisers in the last week, including one Friday in New York City, raising $80,000 for his Senate and PAC campaign funds.

While the money from his Senate campaign account can be transferred into a Presidential account, it is the PAC activity that would hint strongly at a run for President. This article adds a bit of fuel to the months of speculation about Hagel’s political future, and its potential impact on the Nebraska political scene. Hagel’s decision – whether or not to run for re-election, whether to run for President – is going to impact the U.S. Senate race, possibly the race for our Congressional seat, all the way down to the Omaha city elections in 2009. But it seems that Hagel’s starting to mobilize. He’s running for something – the only question is what he’s running for.

UPDATE (3:53 PM CST) by DaveSund: The New York Times reports that Hagel will hold a press conference Monday to “discuss his future plans.”

UPDATE (4:42 PM CST) by DaveSund: The press conference will be on Monday at 10 a.m. at UNO’s campus, according to the AP.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

(If Hagel decides to skip a re-election bid (for whatever reason), this could be a marquee race. Nebraska has a long history of electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate. – promoted by James L.)

From today’s Omaha World Herald:

Mayor Mike Fahey knew what was coming when he agreed recently to meet with two of the nation’s top Democrats – a pitch for him to run for the U.S. Senate.

In the past, Fahey quickly blunted any speculation that he was interested in running for higher office. That has changed, with Fahey now saying he will consider a Senate race if Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel doesn’t seek re-election in 2008.

Late last month, Fahey was in Washington, D.C., for a mayors conference when he was asked to meet with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“They talked to me about the Senate race, and they were very complimentary,” Fahey said. “They said all the right things.”

The DSCC is apparently recruiting Fahey to run for the seat, that’s a very good sign. It’s worth noting that this is only a possibility if Hagel does not run for reelection, but if Fahey does run for Senate, this becomes a tremendous pick-up opportunity.

Thought you all would be interested in this report from Don Walton in yesterday’s Lincoln Journal-Star:

Attorney General Jon Bruning led a December poll measuring the strength of potential Republican  successors to Sen. Chuck Hagel if Hagel chooses not to seek re-election next year.

The survey was commissioned by David Sokol of Omaha, chairman and CEO of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company. The results have been making the rounds in GOP circles in Omaha and Lincoln.

Here are some of the matchups in the poll:

* Bruning, 52 percent; [Former Omaha Mayor Hal] Daub, 20 percent.

* Bruning, 54 percent; [2006 nominee Pete] Ricketts, 24 percent.

* Bruning, 38 percent; [Rep. Lee] Terry, 22 percent.

* Bruning, 40 percent; [Rep. Jeff] Fortenberry, 20 percent.

* Bruning, 36 percent; Ricketts, 21 percent; Daub, 16 percent, in a three-way race.

Here is what is most interesting about these results, to me:

– They are intentionally skewed in favor of Bruning, using two-way matchups to overstate the actual support that Bruning has among Republican primary voters.
– That said, they do demonstrate that Bruning is relatively strong at this early stage.
– It’s very interesting that despite his horrendous performance in the 2006 general, Ricketts draws anywhere from 21-25% support among Republicans.

Now, there is still no telling who is running in 2008, and a poll 16 months out from the primary doesn’t do us a whole lot of good. But it provides an interesting snapshot – and a very clear indication that Jon Bruning is running for Senate in 2008.

Whoa. Kagro at DailyKos passes along this brief local blog post which says that Chuck Hagel is out – not running for president, not running for the Senate. This is big news.

We discussed candidate recruitment for Nebraska in this thread a little while back. Now that the seat may potentially be open, who do you like for the nomination – both Dem and Republican?

Alright, let’s keep the ball rolling here.  Every Thursday, the Swing State Project is taking a look at five GOP-held Senate seats that are up for grabs in 2008, and asking you to submit your recruitment suggestions for each of these races.  (The first one was here and last week’s was here.)

Here is this week’s shortlist up for discussion.  Links are to the 2008 Race Tracker wiki for inspiration, and incumbents are in parens:

11) North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole)

12) Nebraska (Chuck Hagel)

13) New Hampshire (John Sununu)

14) New Mexico (Pete Domenici)

15) Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

Like David said the first time:

Don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?

However, as usual, please do limit yourself to the five races listed in this post.  I know everyone is excited to discuss the whole load of upcoming races, but the quality of discussion is enhanced greatly when we stay focused on just a few Senators at a time.  I’ve really enjoyed some of the suggestions that you have submitted so far.

So, whaddya got?