Tag: NE-Sen

Following up on last week’s updates:

Hal Daub’s announcement came with one significant surprise: He refused to rule out a run should Chuck Hagel decide to seek reelection. Daub is the ultimate Republican insider, a member of the Republican National Committee. He’s also very much part of Hagel’s circle. So, if Daub’s saying that he’s not going to base his decision on what Hagel does, that means one of two things. Either Hagel has already decided not to seek reelection, or he’s hemorrhaging support so badly that even Hal Daub doesn’t want to be tied to him. Either way, it’s going to be a tough road for Hagel to gain his party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate, especially after all the recent talk of running for President as an independent.

If Daub were to win his party’s nomination, it creates an interesting matchup should Mike Fahey run for the Democrats. A rematch of the 2001 Omaha Mayoral election, which Fahey won by a narrow margin.

But Daub’s is a history of electoral failure. He lost a primary challenge to David Karnes in 1988. Karnes was ultimately defeated by Bob Kerrey. He failed against Jim Exon in 1990. In 1997, he narrowly defeated Brenda Council in a campaign that was marred by race-baiting and outlandish stunts. (Daub actually took a polygraph test to “prove” he wasn’t a liar). By 2001, Omahans were so sick of Daub’s attitude that they were ready for someone new. Enter Mike Fahey. The last six years speak volumes, and Fahey’s landslide reelection victory in 2005 has helped to seal his legacy.

We are now less than a year from the primary. What comes next is anyone’s guess, but the field will be set by Labor Day.

In an unrelated note, we’ve got a big weekend in Nebraska – Nebraska Young Democrats are hosting YDA’s Spring National Conference in Omaha. Bill Richardson will be the keynote speaker on Friday. I mention this because I don’t think I can understate just how important the youth will be in 2008 for all of our candidates here. We saw young candidates like Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb do remarkably well for Nebraska, and energize a whole new generation of political activists in this state. It’s time to build on that for 2008.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

A few miscellaneous notes to pass along from the last week.

Mike Fahey has a 54% favorability rating in the Nebraska Democratic Party’s poll released last week. The New Nebraska Network sees this as a positive sign, since Fahey is not a statewide officeholder, and suggests he may be able to bridge the gap between Omaha and the rest of the state.

Rep. Adrian Smith (NE-03) might just be a Jon Bruning supporter. The Lincoln Journal Star reports that Smith’s name is not included among the hosts of Hagel’s big upcoming fundraiser. He is one of only two Republican elected officials (besides Bruning) who is not listed as a host.

I’ve been walking back from my earlier statements that Bob Kerrey wouldn’t run, because it seems like a very real possibility now. Kerrey will headline  the state party’s annual fundraising dinner on June 23rd in Omaha.

Meanwhile, Behlen Manufacturing chairman Tony Raimondo announced that he would seek the Republican nomination should Chuck Hagel decide against seeking reelection.

And former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub is planning on announcing Tuesday that he will be running for Senate should Hagel not run.

Now, all of this movement in the last couple of weeks, and still, Hagel’s got a big fundraiser planned for next weekend, with the Senate’s top Republican planning to attend. Where does that leave us? Just as puzzled as ever. I was ready to call Hagel as in the race three weeks ago – and I am convinced right now that was a premature judgment.

Stay tuned – things are getting interesting.

Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Despite all of the signs showing Chuck Hagel likely pursuing a reelection bid, the news in the past week has been bizarre and contradictory. A prominent Republican donor has thrown himself into the conversation, Hagel’s making noises about an independent bid for President, and the chatter among Democrats is ramping up.

So, let’s take a look at the facts, the rumors, and everything in between.

What We Know:

– Chuck Hagel has scheduled a big-dollar fundraiser for May 18 to raise money for a Senate re-election campaign. Among those scheduled to appear at the fundraiser: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

– Chuck Hagel had a high-profile meeting with NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg on Wednesday.

– Bloomberg’s news service interviewed Hagel, who said he might consider running for President as an independent.

– Bruning is pushing back hard against Hagel in the press. It’s becoming clear that, should Hagel decide to run for reelection, he’s going to have powerful forces behind them. It might be too much for Bruning to overcome.

– Hagel is in deep trouble with Republicans, according to a favorability poll conducted by the Nebraska Democratic Party. That same poll shows Bruning with very low name recognition for a statewide officeholder, and a majority of Nebraskans favoring a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.

What We’re Hearing:

– An influential Republican donor, Tony Raimondo, has started to make some noise about running for Senate. He says he would “probably not” challenge Hagel because of Hagel’s record on business. Not exactly a vote of confidence, but we’re pretty sure that Bruning’s the only one willing to risk political suicide by challenging Hagel in a primary.

– Remember how I said Bob Kerrey wasn’t going to run? I may have spoken too soon. No links, just rumors I’m hearing.

This race is growing increasingly bizarre, and Chuck Hagel is playing his cards very close to the vest right now. There’s no telling what direction he’s leaning, and his indecisiveness might just cost him the Republican nomination for Senate.

On the Democratic side, things are still difficult to read. Mike Fahey has long been considered the top candidate for the Democrats, but recently has started to make a move toward a reelection bid for mayor. Scott Kleeb is talking a lot about running for office again someday, but it’s not quite clear what office, or when. And Bob Kerrey said there was only a 1% chance that he would run. But, for what it’s worth, Kerrey still has an active campaign committee with $437,000 cash on hand.

The last several weeks in this race have been a gold mine for political junkies like myself. But, make no mistake, this is the most important race in Nebraska in 2008. Whether Hagel runs or not, there’s a strong possibility that the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate will be Jon Bruning. That’s simply a scary thought. There is no greater opportunity for Nebraska Democrats than this race. And if we fail to field a strong candidate, we fail as a party.

This just in: the Nebraska Democratic Party has released some polling information on Chuck Hagel.

The key findings?

Today, Hagel earns a net negative job performance score statewide with 42 percent of voters saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while a majority, 50 percent, says fair-to-poor. Hagel’s job performance is most negative with his Republican base, while it is net positive among Democrats and solidly mixed among independents. Among conservative Republicans, Hagel’s professional marks have crumbled, with almost two-thirds, 61 percent, saying he is doing a fair-to-poor job as Senator.

And Bruning’s numbers:

The poll results show that Bruning’s name recognition in the state is below what would be expected for someone who ran for statewide office twice and who has used government funds to market himself through Public Service Advertisements. Of those surveyed, 59 percent identified Bruning, 90 percent identified Hagel.

However, in sharp contrast to Hagel, Bruning earns a solid 61-degree personal feeling thermometer rating among those who can rate him, with a slightly better than three-to-one warm-to-cool ratio, 35 percent have a favorable or warm opinion of him, while 10 percent have a cool opinion. Bruning earns a strong professional rating as well, with 40 percent saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while 29 percent say fair-to-poor. Unlike Hagel, Bruning’s job performance is solid among the Republican base, and independents too, while Democrats split evenly.

But here’s the kicker:

The poll results indicate that Bruning might want to change the theme of his campaign however, as the Iraq war continues to be fought. Among those Nebraskans surveyed, 51 percent favor a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq, while only 37 percent believe we need to give the President’s troop surge plan a chance to work. We believe those margins will continue to widen as the President’s policy plays out in the next several months.

I’ve held off on making this call for a while now, but I feel comfortable saying it now. Chuck Hagel is running for reelection:

We figured out about a couple weeks ago here at UNO Dems that Lee Terry was running for reelection, and not the Senate. It wasn’t until Thursday that we figured out why. We’re ready to say with a great level of confidence that Chuck Hagel is running for reelection, and that Jon Bruning will challenge him for the nomination.

Bruning’s announcement that he wasn’t going to wait for Hagel was sign number one. Sign number two was Bruning’s polling information that showed him leading Hagel by 9 points, and Hagel’s push back in the press. For the last week, there’s been a stealth war going on between the two candidates, with Hagel’s people silently leaking a 23 year-old Jon Bruning’s Daily Nebraskan columns from around 1992, where he voiced support for gay rights, a woman’s right to choose, gun control, and endorsed Bill Clinton for President and Gerry Finnegan for Congress. Fred Thompson has been openly courting Nebraska’s House delegation.

But the two items that seal it, came in the last two days. First, Chuck Hagel’s scheduled May 18 fundraiser, a high-dollar event hosted by Governor Dave Heineman and several high-profile Omaha business leaders. Second, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s commitment to appear at that fundraiser. Certainly, McConnell would not be appearing at a Hagel fundraiser unless he was given assurances that Hagel was running for reelection and not for President.

Now, what does this mean? Unfortunately, it probably means we can count out our top tier of candidates. Mike Fahey is happy with his job as mayor, and has already said he won’t challenge Hagel. Bob Kerrey has basically endorsed Hagel for Senate. And Scott Kleeb, who has a bright future in the Democratic Party, isn’t about to jeopardize it on a challenge of a sitting U.S. Senator when there’s an absolute embarrassment of a Congressman representing his district.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Republican civil war that’s sure to come might just provide Democrats in this state an opportunity to make some permanent gains. Between the national climate and the disillusionment of Republicans, we might see some defection of moderate Republican voters should Hagel fall victim to Bruning’s challenge. Hagel’s going to have the backing of the NRSC, virtually every elected Republican in the state, and all but a few prominent Nebraska businessmen (Mid-America Energy CEO David Sokol is a prominent backer of Jon Bruning). But don’t underestimate Republican hatred of Hagel. It’ll be an interesting race to say the least. Stay tuned.

(More commentary from our man on the ground in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)

In assessing the lay of the land in Nebraska, as it is becoming increasingly likely that Chuck Hagel is seeking reelection, and almost a certainty that Jon Bruning will be his opponent for the Republican nomination, it’s helpful to look back at the last high-profile Republican primary fight in Nebraska, the 2006 governor’s race between Tom Osborne and Dave Heineman. What’s different, here? And what might we see repeat itself?

The Republicans

I still contend that Heineman’s victory was a triumph of machine politics. Hagel came out early in vocal support of Heineman, while the only prominent elected Republican to endorse Tom Osborne for governor was – you guessed it – Jon Bruning.

But still, there’s no doubt that Heineman was the underdog in this race. Despite the advantages of incumbency, he hadn’t really done anything since assuming office in 2005.

A combination of factors contributed to Heineman’s ultimate victory, but the fact that Heineman was backed by almost every prominent Republican while Osborne’s most prominent endorsements were from Democrats (Warren Buffett actually switched to the Republican Party to vote for Osborne), may have sealed the deal.

The Independents

A quick look at the voter registration numbers in Nebraska shows 187,000 registered “nonpartisan” voters, or independents. (About 16% of registered voters in Nebraska). Nebraska law allows independents to vote in federal primary elections by requesting either the Democratic or Republican ballot. In 2006, independents found that they could not vote in the high-profile gubernatorial primary because state law requires party affiliation to be declared to vote in state primary elections.

Theoretically, this means that those voters could swing the Republican nomination back toward Hagel. However, the 2006 Senate race saw only 4,104 nonpartisans, just 3% of the total vote, vote in the primary. It may be significant in a close race, though, and if independents are aware that they can vote in the primary, the percentage may be higher. But historically, independents have not had much of an influence on the election.

The Democrats

Here’s where the key difference comes in. I alluded to this above, that Democrats in 2006 switched parties to vote in the governor’s race. Heineman was exceedingly popular – to the bewilderment of those of us who knew his politics. And Osborne, of course, is a demigod in Nebraska.

So the state party, in their infinite wisdom, decided to concede this race from the start, and because of their negligence, saw thousands of Democrats leave the party to vote in the Republican Primary, and leaving Democrats in nonpartisan races at a serious disadvantage.

A Lincoln businessman named David Hahn got into the race, but with limited resources and a state party that didn’t give him the time of day or any respect, it was a campaign that died on the runway. Now, Hahn could have done things differently. No one, in my opinion, had more limited resources or got treated as poorly by the state party as Jim Esch, but he performed better than any Democratic congressional candidate has in NE-02 for more than a decade. Hahn got less than 25% of the vote. Much of the blame for that has to rest at his feet.

Bruning may be an even worse story, though. The Democratic Party didn’t even bother to field a candidate against him for Attorney General (which led to this light-hearted Facebook campaign we started at UNO). Bruning still ended up spending $300,000 on ads, in an unopposed race. This was the first public sign that he was going to be running for Senate in 2008.

Now, I want to say that I feel the people responsible for those decisions and those attitudes within the state party are no longer employed by the Nebraska Democratic Party. I’m optimistic that the NDP isn’t going to concede a race before the primary this time around.

One of the key differences among Democrats this time, though, is that Jon Bruning would be an unacceptable choice as a U.S. Senator. So a credible candidate can – and likely will – run and get the support of Nebraska Democrats.

The Issues
They didn’t exist in the 2006 campaign. The most controversial issue that came up during the 2006 primary was the Omaha school segregation bill, which Heineman signed into law, and Osborne denounced. That didn’t exactly help Osborne among Republican primary voters, as a few prominent Democratic legislators quickly endorsed Osborne for Governor. That was late April 2006, less than a month before the primary.

This one will be all about the issues, while Chuck Hagel will seek to make it about character, knowing he can’t expect to win a Republican nomination if the focus is on the war or immigration. Bruning’s going to have to fight to keep the focus away from his past political beliefs, which Hagel’s people have been hammering hard for the last week.

The Civil War
This has been brewing for years, as Bruning’s faction has been trying to dethrone Hagel as the king of the Nebraska Republican Party. Heineman’s victory last May was a victory for Hagel. And everything in the Nebraska GOP in the last several years has some tie to this ongoing fight. (For a deeper background on Heineman-Hagel and Bruning, see this post). While the Osborne-Heineman race remained above the fray much of the time, this race has the potential to tear the Republican Party apart, and provide a real opening for the Democrats to make up some ground. If they purge Chuck Hagel, who votes with Bush 95% of the time, who’s next?

UPDATE: Looks like Hagel’s in it. Whatever his ultimate decision, it doesn’t look like retirement is on the table anymore, and running for President seems increasingly unlikely, but Hagel’s holding a high-dollar fundraiser in Omaha next month.

(Very interesting, indeed. – promoted by James L.)

Things are getting very interesting in Nebraska. Bruning released poll results today showing a 9 point lead over incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel among likely Republican voters.

From the Lincoln Journal Star:

Attorney General Jon Bruning said Monday he led Sen. Chuck Hagel by 9 points in a survey last week of likely Republican voters in a 2008 GOP Senate primary contest.

The poll of 404 Republicans was conducted by Bruning’s pollster, Dresner, Wickers and Associates of San Francisco. In a head-to-head matchup, Bruning led by 47 percent to 38 percent.

If the race was between Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, according to the polling, Bruning holds a 55-16% lead.

Full poll results are available here.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

Not to say I told you so, or anything, but it looks like Jon Bruning’s running.

The Lincoln Journal Star has more:

The plot not only thickened in the 2008 Senate race Wednesday night, it threatened to spin out of control.

Attorney General Jon Bruning is ready to enter the 2008 Republican primary whether Sen. Chuck Hagel seeks re-election or not. Bruning confirmed his intentions in a statement released Thursday morning.

Hagel’s recent vote supporting a timeline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and his recent criticism of President Bush provide “significant reasons” to enter the Senate race, the attorney general said.
“Senator Hagel voted with the Democratic leadership against President Bush on the most important issue facing our country,” Bruning said.

“His comments (in a recent Esquire magazine article) made it clear that he thinks impeachment of the president is an option,” the attorney general said.

“These are drastic and dramatic shifts away from the Republican Party, our president and the people of Nebraska.”

Bruning, 37, was elected as Nebraska’s Attorney General in 2002, and reelected (unopposed) in 2006. His website is still not Firefox-friendly. Bruning announced on March 15, shortly after Hagel’s non-announcement, that he was forming an exploratory committee to run for Chuck Hagel’s United States Senate seat… but only if Hagel did not run. Now, due to Hagel’s vote on the Iraq supplemental and a significant dissatisfaction among Republican voters in Nebraska – the exact factors that I predicted would land Hagel in Joe Lieberman’s position from 2006 – Bruning has decided that he’s not going to wait for Hagel.

I certainly didn’t expect this to happen so soon. But now that it has, we’ve got to fight this one. Chuck Hagel may have the establishment behind him, but he’s pissed off a lot of Republicans – and now they have someone to unite behind. He’ll be running as George Bush’s puppet – a perfect target for any Democratic candidate, yes, even in Nebraska. We need to make sure that our nominee is prepared for this. Bruning is not to be taken lightly, but he can be beaten.

Among the other rumors in that article…

Bob Kerrey is not running for Senate. There’s been a poll going around (one of my friends got it last week), that’s asked a lot of questions about Kerrey, but you all remember the ugliness right before his exit from the Senate, and let’s not forget that he’s lived in New York for the past six years. We have better candidates than Bob Kerrey.

Mike Fahey’s laying the groundwork for a reelection run in 2009, ramping up his fundraising. This shouldn’t be any cause for concern, it’s been generally assumed that he’s going to run for reelection should he not run for Senate, and he’s not going to make that decision until later this year.

Stay tuned with us here in Nebraska for any more developments.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

With Chuck Hagel once again saying that impeachment could be an option, it felt like the right time to visit this topic: What if Chuck Hagel does decide to run for re-election?

Let’s say, tomorrow, a month from now, six months from now, Chuck Hagel wakes up, realizes that running for President is a fool’s errand, and decides that he’s going to just run to keep his presumably safe U.S. Senate seat.

He could be the Joe Lieberman of 2008.

Understand, of course, that this would be a “bizarro”-Joe Lieberman. Like Lieberman, he’s a staple on the Sunday morning talk shows, advocating a war strategy that is diametrically opposed to his own party. But if you lined them up side-by-side, I doubt that you’d find many issues which they’d agree on. Their similarities begin and end with how they are reviled by the rank-and-file of their own party. And that’s what I draw from here.

The anecdotal evidence is strong enough. Republicans don’t like Chuck Hagel. There’s a vocal group of Nebraska Republicans – they show up almost daily in the letters to the editor – who want to see him challenged. They may yet get their wish.

Ten days ago, Attorney General Jon Bruning announced his intention to run for Senate – should Hagel not seek reelection. But the Lincoln Journal Star’s Don Walton sees a potential for Bruning’s campaign to become a vehicle for an anti-Hagel movement, and I’m inclined to agree: 

Bruning launches his “ground game,” identifying and organizing supporters across the state.

And he begins the rather challenging task of attempting to raise funds for a campaign he may never wage.

Hagel loyalists in the Republican ranks are going to hold tight, one would guess.

Bruning loyalists will step forward behind their man.

And what will Republicans who are angry with Hagel for opposing President Bush on Iraq do?

Judging by letters to the editor, telephone messages and anecdotal evidence, there are a lot of them out there.  They are upset, and they are energized.

Do the anti-Hagels put their hopes, and money, with Bruning?  Help him build a sturdy campaign vehicle?  Implore him to run?  Coalesce into their own organization, whether Bruning’s a candidate or not?

So, just kind of picture this: Nebraska Republicans, increasingly upset at Hagel’s continued criticisms of Bush, line up behind Bruning. Not elected Republicans, of course. The Nebraska Republican establishment will be firmly behind Hagel. Bruning, surprised by the enthusiasm of his supporters, preempts Hagel’s late summer announcement by announcing that he will, indeed, run for Senate regardless of Hagel’s intentions. Hagel decides to run, setting up a showdown in May of 2008.

There is one key difference, of course: if Hagel loses the Republican nomination, he can’t run in the “Nebraska for Hagel” party. Nebraska law expressly forbids running for the same office after losing the primary.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

From UNO Dems
Breaking news:

LINCOLN – Attorney General Jon Bruning said today he will form an explatory (sic) committee for a possible campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2008.
Bruning, a Republican, said he will not run if Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., decided to seek re-election to a third term.
“I’m not a candidate,” Bruning said. “This is all about preparing for a ground game.”

We’ve long assumed this to be the case.  But still, it comes as a bit of a surprise that he is doing this so soon after Hagel’s non-announcement. I’ve given up trying to guess what these things mean. But I’d put it at pretty good odds we’re looking at an open seat for U.S. Senate in 2008.

And lest we forget, Hal Daub, two-time Senate loser, former mayor of Omaha, and Republican power-player, also expressed serious interest in the race today. Oh, that we could see Fahey vs. Daub again. I might enjoy that.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen